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NCCU

North Carolina Central 7 at Duke 60

DUKE
2017 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2017 · Wallace Wade Stadium
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Win probability · DUKE
modelDUKE aheadNCCU aheadconfidence bandkey playDUKE scoreNCCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDSAFETYFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:24 · Nathaniel Tilque punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Duke 26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 118Pregame prior+28.4Home team on offense+33.2Score differential+26.6Blowout margin+15.4Garbage-time factor+6.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 11:27: Shaun Wilson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Parker KICK) — NCCU win probability +0.1 pts (now 2%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 5:11: Brittain Brown run for 39 yds for a TD, (Austin Parker KICK) — DUKE win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 14:26: Daniel Jones run for 4 yds for a TD, (Austin Parker KICK) — DUKE win probability +0.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 7:46: Daniel Jones pass complete to Aaron Young for 54 yds for a TD, (Austin Parker KICK) — DUKE win probability +0.8 pts (now 100%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 3:31: Quentin Harris run for 3 yds for a TD, (Austin Parker KICK) — DUKE win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
DUKE made the numbers' call on 6 of 8NCCU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00NCCU 4th & 5 at NCCU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:21NCCU 4th & 15 at NCCU 47, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:21NCCU 4th & 10 at NCCU 28, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00DUKE 4th & 1 at NCCU 11, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    97.8%−0.2
    87% to make
    Punt
    97.3%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:09DUKE 4th & 1 at NCCU 26, up 30
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    98.7%−0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    98.3%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:25DUKE 4th & 4 at NCCU 14, up 30
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.9%−<0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    98.5%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:19NCCU 4th & 7 at NCCU 26, down 33
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:16DUKE 4th & 1 at NCCU 21, up 33
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.0%−0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    98.6%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:02NCCU 4th & 13 at DUKE 39, down 40
    Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%−<0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    0.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:52DUKE 4th & 9 at NCCU 27, up 40
    Close callWent for it · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.6%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%
    62% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:56NCCU 4th & 8 at NCCU 35, down 40
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:24NCCU 4th & 5 at NCCU 36, down 46
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:46DUKE 4th & 15 at DUKE 35, up 46
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:09NCCU 4th & 5 at DUKE 44, down 53
    Close callPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    -0.0%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:42DUKE 4th & 8 at DUKE 27, up 53
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    100.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:59NCCU 4th & 8 at NCCU 24, down 53
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:43DUKE 4th & 12 at DUKE 40, up 53
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
DUKE made the numbers' call on 8 of 8NCCU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 11:27DUKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:21DUKE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:11DUKE Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:26DUKE Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:46DUKE Touchdown, up 39 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 7:22NCCU Touchdown, down 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 3:31DUKE Touchdown, up 39 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 6:40DUKE Touchdown, up 46 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 12:17DUKE Touchdown, up 52 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NCCUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-1
98.6%
Ramone Simpson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCCtl 12Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 12
+6
98.6%
Micah Zanders pass complete to Josh McCoy for 6 yds to the NCCtl 18Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 18
0
98.6%
Micah Zanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 18
0
98.6%
Nathaniel Tilque punt for 33 yds, downed at the Duke 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2TD
7 plays · 51 yds · 2:0399% → 98%
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
98.5%
Shaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the NCCtl 48Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+7
98.5%
Shaun Wilson run for 7 yds to the NCCtl 41 for a 1ST down NC CENTRAL Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
98.5%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+9
98.5%
Shaun Wilson run for 9 yds to the NCCtl 32Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+27
98.5%
Shaun Wilson run for 21 yds to the NCCtl 11 for a 1ST down NC CENTRAL Penalty, personal foul (6 Yards) to the NCCtl 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 4
OPP 5
+4
98.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 4 yds to the NCCtl 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.4%
Shaun Wilson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Parker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 3INT TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
98.4%
Micah Zanders pass intercepted for a TD Bryon Fields Jr. return for 28 yds for a TD, (Austin Parker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
98.4%
Dorrel McClain run for 2 yds to the NCCtl 27Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-2
98.4%
Dorrel McClain run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCCtl 25Similar
Q1 11:21
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+27
98.4%
Micah Zanders pass complete to Jordan Fieulleteau for 27 yds to the Duke 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
98.4%
Dorrel McClain run for no gain to the Duke 48Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-9
98.4%
Micah Zanders pass complete to Jacen Murphy for 6 yds to the NCCtl 42 NC CENTRAL Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the NCCtl 43Similar
Q1 11:21
3RD & 19
OWN 43
+4
98.4%
Micah Zanders run for 4 yds to the NCCtl 47Similar
Q1 11:21
4TH & 15
OWN 47
0
98.4%
Nathaniel Tilque punt for 39 yds, fair catch by T.J. Rahming at the Duke 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 5TD
8 plays · 86 yds · 2:3898% → 99%
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
98.3%
Shaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the Duke 17Similar
Q1 7:49
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+6
98.3%
Shaun Wilson run for 6 yds to the Duke 23Similar
Q1 7:49
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+1
98.2%
Shaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the Duke 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
98.3%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 5 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q1 7:49
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+8
98.3%
Daniel Jones run for 8 yds to the Duke 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+24
98.3%
Brittain Brown run for 24 yds to the DUKE 39 for a 1ST down NC CENTRAL Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
98.3%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+39
98.5%
Brittain Brown run for 39 yds for a TD, (Austin Parker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:452% → 2%
Q1 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
98.4%
Micah Zanders run for no gain to the NCCtl 28Similar
Q1 4:21
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+3
98.5%
Micah Zanders pass complete to Jordan Fieulleteau for 3 yds to the NCCtl 31Similar
Q1 4:21
3RD & 7
OWN 31
-3
98.5%
Micah Zanders sacked by Victor Dimukeje for a loss of 3 yards to the NCCtl 28Similar
Q1 4:21
4TH & 10
OWN 28
0
98.5%
Nathaniel Tilque punt for 38 yds, fair catch by T.J. Rahming at the Duke 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 7TD
12 plays · 66 yds · 3:2199% → 99%
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
98.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Aaron Young for 7 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q1 2:47
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+1
98.5%
Brittain Brown run for 1 yd to the Duke 42Similar
Q1 2:47
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+3
98.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Daniel Helm for 3 yds to the Duke 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
98.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Brittain Brown for 11 yds to the NCCtl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
98.5%
Brittain Brown run for 2 yds to the NCCtl 42Similar
Q1 2:47
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+22
98.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Daniel Helm for 22 yds to the NCCtl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
98.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Aaron Young for 6 yds to the NCCtl 14Similar
Q1 2:47
2ND & 4
OPP 14
0
98.6%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Aaron YoungSimilar
Q1 2:47
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+3
98.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 3 yds to the NCCtl 11Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+2
98.6%
Quentin Harris run for 2 yds to the NCCtl 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
98.6%
Jones, D pass incomplete to Chambers, Q, PENALTY NCCU offside (COX,Kawuan) 5 yards to the NCCU4, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.2%
Daniel Jones run for 4 yds for a TD, (Austin Parker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 8SF
2 plays · -13 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-13
99.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 13 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 9FG
9 plays · 21 yds · 2:4499% → 99%
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
99.2%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
99.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Keyston Fuller for no gain Keyston Fuller fumbled, forced by King Kiaku,Similar
Q2 14:09
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+9
99.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Aaron Young for 9 yds to the NCCtl 26Similar
Q2 14:09
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+6
99.2%
Deon Jackson run for 6 yds to the NCCtl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
99.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Deon Jackson for 6 yds to the NCCtl 14Similar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 4
OPP 14
0
99.2%
Deon Jackson run for no gain to the NCCtl 14Similar
Q2 14:09
3RD & 4
OPP 14
0
99.2%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:25
4TH & 4
OPP 14
+32
99.2%
Austin Parker 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
99.3%
Isaiah Totten run for 2 yds to the NCCtl 25Similar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 8
OWN 25
-1
99.3%
Micah Zanders sacked by Joe Giles-Harris for a loss of 1 yard to the NCCtl 24Similar
Q2 11:19
3RD & 9
OWN 24
-5
99.3%
NC CENTRAL Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the NCCtl 19Similar
Q2 11:19
3RD & 14
OWN 19
+7
99.3%
Micah Zanders pass complete to Jacen Murphy for 7 yds to the NCCtl 26Similar
Q2 11:19
4TH & 7
OWN 26
+3
99.3%
Nathaniel Tilque punt for 46 yds , T.J. Rahming returns for 3 yds to the Duke 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11TD
3 plays · 69 yds · 0:5099% → 100%
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
98.7%
Shaun Wilson run for 8 yds to the Duke 39Similar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+7
98.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Keyston Fuller for 7 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+54
99.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Aaron Young for 54 yds for a TD, (Austin Parker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 12TD
2 plays · 81 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+81
99.5%
Isaiah Totten run for 81 yds for a TD, (Aedan Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13TD
12 plays · 77 yds · 3:45100% → 100%
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
99.5%
Brittain Brown run for 8 yds to the Duke 31Similar
Q2 7:16
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+9
99.5%
Brittain Brown run for 9 yds to the Duke 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
99.5%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Scott Bracey for 15 yds to the NCCtl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
99.5%
NC CENTRAL Penalty, personal foul (Antonio Brown) to the NCCtl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
99.5%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Trevon Lee for 4 yds to the NCCtl 26Similar
Q2 7:16
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+5
99.5%
Quentin Harris run for 5 yds to the NCCtl 21Similar
Q2 7:16
3RD & 1
OPP 21
0
99.5%
Quentin Harris run for no gain to the NCCtl 21Similar
Q2 7:16
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+2
99.5%
Quentin Harris run for 2 yds to the NCCtl 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
99.5%
Quentin Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:16
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+16
99.5%
Brittain Brown run for 16 yds to the NCCtl 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.7%
Quentin Harris run for 3 yds for a TD, (Austin Parker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 14DOWNS
9 plays · 16 yds · 3:190% → 0%
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
99.7%
Ramone Simpson run for no gain to the NCCtl 41Similar
Q2 3:21
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+13
99.7%
Micah Zanders pass complete to E.J. Hicks for 13 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+10
99.7%
Micah Zanders pass complete to David Miller for 10 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-8
99.7%
Jacen Murphy run for a loss of 8 yards to the Duke 45 Jacen Murphy fumbled, forced by Tre Hornbuckle, recovered by NCCtl Jacen MurphySimilar
Q2 3:21
2ND & 19
OPP 45
+6
99.7%
Micah Zanders pass complete to David Miller for 6 yds to the Duke 39Similar
Q2 3:21
3RD & 13
OPP 39
0
99.7%
Micah Zanders pass incomplete to Jordan FieulleteauSimilar
Q2 0:02
4TH & 13
OPP 39
-4
99.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Duke 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15DOWNS
7 plays · 38 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
99.8%
Daniel Jones run for 8 yds to the Duke 48Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+24
99.8%
Brittain Brown run for 9 yds to the DUKE 43 for a 1ST down NC CENTRAL Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the NCCtl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
99.8%
Daniel Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCCtl 29Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 11
OPP 29
0
99.8%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 11
OPP 29
+2
99.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 2 yds to the NCCtl 27Similar
Q3 14:52
4TH & 9
OPP 27
+5
99.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Davis Koppenhaver for 5 yds to the NCCtl 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 3:010% → 0%
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
99.8%
Ramone Simpson run for 3 yds to the NCCtl 25Similar
Q3 12:57
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+8
99.8%
Micah Zanders pass complete to Jacen Murphy for 8 yds to the NCCtl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
99.7%
Ramone Simpson run for 2 yds to the NCCtl 35Similar
Q3 12:57
2ND & 8
OWN 35
0
99.8%
Ramone Simpson run for no gain to the NCCtl 35Similar
Q3 12:57
3RD & 8
OWN 35
0
99.8%
Micah Zanders pass incomplete to Jacen MurphySimilar
Q3 9:56
4TH & 8
OWN 35
0
99.8%
Nathaniel Tilque punt for 41 yds , T.J. Rahming returns for no gain to the Duke 35 DUKE Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the Duke 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17TD
7 plays · 86 yds · 3:16100% → 100%
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
99.8%
Brittain Brown run for 5 yds to the Duke 19Similar
Q3 9:56
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+7
99.8%
Brittain Brown run for 7 yds to the Duke 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+17
99.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 17 yds to the Duke 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
99.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 15 yds to the NCCtl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+13
99.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Aaron Young for 13 yds to the NCCtl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
99.8%
Deon Jackson run for 5 yds to the NCCtl 24Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+24
99.9%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 24 yds for a TD, (Austin Parker PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:110% → 0%
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
99.9%
Micah Zanders pass incomplete, broken up by Joe Giles-HarrisSimilar
Q3 6:24
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+15
99.9%
ZANDERS,Micah pass intercepted by Fields Jr., B at the NCCU20, Fields Jr., B return to the NCCU0, clock 06:24, PENALTY DU personal foul (Ramsay, M) 15 yards to the NCCU31, 1ST DOWN NCCU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Dorrel McClain run for no gain to the NCCtl 31Similar
Q3 6:24
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Micah Zanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:24
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+5
99.9%
Micah Zanders pass complete to Jacen Murphy for 5 yds to the NCCtl 36Similar
Q3 6:24
4TH & 5
OWN 36
0
99.9%
Nathaniel Tilque punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Duke 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
99.9%
Nicodem Pierre run for 4 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+10
99.9%
Nicodem Pierre run for 10 yds to the Duke 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-3
99.9%
Nicodem Pierre run for a loss of 3 yards to the Duke 37Similar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 13
OWN 37
+3
99.9%
Nicodem Pierre run for 3 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q3 4:46
3RD & 10
OWN 40
-5
99.9%
Quentin Harris sacked by Antonio Brown for a loss of 5 yards to the Duke 35Similar
Q3 4:46
4TH & 15
OWN 35
0
99.9%
Austin Parker punt for 35 yds, downed at the NCCtl 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -21 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
99.9%
Chauncey Caldwell run for 5 yds to the NCCtl 35Similar
Q3 2:08
2ND & 5
OWN 35
-12
99.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 12 yards to the NCCtl 23Similar
Q3 2:08
3RD & 17
OWN 23
-5
99.9%
NC CENTRAL Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NCCtl 18Similar
Q3 2:08
3RD & 22
OWN 18
-9
99.9%
Chauncey Caldwell sacked by Victor Dimukeje and Drew Jordan for a loss of 9 yards to the NCCtl 9Similar
Q3 2:08
4TH & 31
OWN 9
+9
99.9%
Nathaniel Tilque punt for 50 yds , Myles Hudzick returns for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 21TD
8 plays · 50 yds · 2:43100% → 100%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+5
99.9%
Deon Jackson run for 5 yds to the NCCtl 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+2
99.9%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds to the NCCtl 43Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+17
99.9%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Noah Gray for 17 yds to the NCCtl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
99.9%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Noah Gray for 4 yds to the NCCtl 22Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+12
99.9%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Scott Bracey for 12 yds to the NCCtl 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-3
99.9%
Quentin Harris run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCCtl 13Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+3
99.9%
Quentin Harris run for 3 yds to the NCCtl 10Similar
Q4 12:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
99.9%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Noah Gray for 10 yds for a TD, (Austin Parker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
100.0%
Isaiah Totten run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCCtl 34Similar
Q4 12:09
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+2
100.0%
Chauncey Caldwell run for 2 yds to the NCCtl 36Similar
Q4 12:09
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+15
100.0%
CALDWELL,Chaunc pass incomplete, QB hurry by Jordan, D, PENALTY DU personal foul (Jordan, D) 15 yards to the DU49, 1ST DOWN NCCU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
100.0%
Isaiah Totten run for 2 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q4 12:09
2ND & 8
OPP 47
0
100.0%
Isaiah Totten run for no gain to the Duke 47Similar
Q4 12:09
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+3
100.0%
Chauncey Caldwell pass complete to Eric Saintil for 3 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q4 12:09
4TH & 5
OPP 44
0
100.0%
Nathaniel Tilque punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Myles Hudzick at the Duke 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
99.9%
Nicodem Pierre run for 3 yds to the Duke 16Similar
Q4 8:42
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+6
99.9%
Parker Boehme pass complete to Keyston Fuller for 6 yds to the Duke 22Similar
Q4 8:42
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+3
99.9%
Nicodem Pierre run for 3 yds to the Duke 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Nicodem Pierre run for no gain to the Duke 25Similar
Q4 8:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds to the Duke 27Similar
Q4 8:42
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Parker Boehme pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:42
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Austin Parker punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Jacen Murphy at the NCCtl 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-3
100.0%
Torri Cotton run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCCtl 19Similar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 13
OWN 19
0
100.0%
Micah Zanders pass incomplete to Jordan FieulleteauSimilar
Q4 5:59
3RD & 13
OWN 19
+5
100.0%
Torri Cotton run for 5 yds to the NCCtl 24Similar
Q4 5:59
4TH & 8
OWN 24
0
100.0%
Nathaniel Tilque punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Duke 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
100.0%
Elijah Deveaux run for 2 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q4 4:43
2ND & 8
OWN 44
-4
100.0%
Parker Boehme run for a loss of 4 yards to the Duke 38 Parker Boehme fumbled, recovered by Duke Parker BoehmeSimilar
Q4 4:43
3RD & 14
OWN 38
+2
100.0%
Elijah Deveaux run for 2 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q4 4:43
4TH & 12
OWN 40
+8
100.0%
Austin Parker punt for 39 yds , Alphonso Carter returns for 8 yds to the NCCtl 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 26END OF GAME
4 plays · 15 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
100.0%
Torri Cotton run for 6 yds to the NCCtl 35Similar
Q4 2:52
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+3
100.0%
Torri Cotton run for 3 yds to the NCCtl 38Similar
Q4 2:52
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+6
100.0%
Micah Zanders run for 6 yds to the NCCtl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
100.0%
Torri Cotton run for no gain to the NCCtl 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:46
Daniel Jones pass complete to Aaron Young for 54 yds for a TD, (Austin Parker KICK)
+0.8
TD · Q2 14:26
Daniel Jones run for 4 yds for a TD, (Austin Parker KICK)
+0.6
TD · Q1 5:11
Brittain Brown run for 39 yds for a TD, (Austin Parker KICK)
+0.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com