2017 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2017 · Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC)
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Win probability · CLEM
modelCLEM aheadKENT aheadconfidence bandkey playCLEM scoreKENT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:39 · Derek Adams punt for 38 yds, downed at the Clem 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 10:37: Kelly Bryant pass complete to Deon Cain for 61 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK) — CLEM win probability +0.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q1 3:18: Adam Choice run for 3 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK) — CLEM win probability +0.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- FG · Q2 12:14: Shane Hynes 37 yd FG GOOD — KENT win probability +0.7 pts (now 2%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:13: Kelly Bryant run for 8 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK) — CLEM win probability +1.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:44: C.J. Fuller run for 2 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK) — CLEM win probability +0.4 pts (now 100%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLEM made the numbers' call on 1 of 2KENT made the numbers' call on 11 of 12
- Q1 11:19KENT 4th & 5 at KENT 30, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snapGo for it1.9%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.9%average punt
- Q1 7:22KENT 4th & 30 at KENT 5, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snapGo for it1.7%−0.36% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.0%average punt
- Q2 12:14KENT 4th & 2 at CLEM 20, down 21Close callKicked a field goal · 1.7% before the snapGo for it1.7%57% to convertField goalTheir call1.6%−0.175% to makePunt1.2%−0.6average punt
- Q2 11:00CLEM 4th & 1 at CLEM 33, up 18Close callPunted · 97.7% before the snapGo for it97.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.7%−0.2average punt
- Q2 8:39KENT 4th & 4 at KENT 24, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snapGo for it2.3%−0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.4%average punt
- Q2 3:26KENT 4th & 10 at KENT 10, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snapGo for it2.3%−0.327% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.6%average punt
- Q2 0:43KENT 4th & 6 at KENT 24, down 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snapGo for it2.1%−0.238% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.3%average punt
- Q3 13:14KENT 4th & 2 at KENT 33, down 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it1.0%−<0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.0%average punt
- Q3 8:09KENT 4th & 14 at KENT 18, down 32Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 3:57KENT 4th & 7 at KENT 43, down 39Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 13:59KENT 4th & 4 at KENT 26, down 46Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 6:35KENT 4th & 4 at KENT 42, down 53Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
- Q4 4:04CLEM 4th & 30 at CLEM 21, up 53Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.26% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call100.0%average punt
- Q4 1:53KENT 4th & 2 at KENT 38, down 53Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLEM made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
- Q1 13:42CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.4%97% to makeGo for two98.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 10:37CLEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.2%97% to makeGo for two98.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:18CLEM Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.5%97% to makeGo for two98.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:13CLEM Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.6%97% to makeGo for two98.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:44CLEM Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:35CLEM Touchdown, up 38 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:33CLEM Touchdown, up 45 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:01CLEM Touchdown, up 52 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCLEMDrive 1TD5 plays · 65 yds · 1:1398% → 98%
Q1 13:45
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+26
98.2%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Milan Richard for 26 yds to the KntSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 2:152% → 2%
Q1 11:19
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+9
98.0%
Derek Adams punt for 49 yds , Ray-Ray McCloud returns for 9 yds to the Clem 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 3TD2 plays · 70 yds · 0:3198% → 98%
KENTDrive 4PUNT9 plays · -20 yds · 3:042% → 2%
Q1 7:22
4TH & 30
OWN 5
0
98.0%
Derek Adams punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Ray-Ray McCloud at the Clem 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 5TD11 plays · 54 yds · 3:5698% → 98%
Q1 7:00
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+8
98.0%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Diondre Overton for 8 yds to the KntSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
98.0%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 7 yds to the KntSt 36Similar
Q1 4:10
3RD & 9
OPP 15
+8
97.8%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Adam Choice for 8 yds to the KntSt 7Similar
Q1 3:41
4TH & 1
OPP 7
+4
97.8%
KENT ST Penalty, Substitution Infraction (4 Yards) to the KntSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 6FG13 plays · 55 yds · 5:562% → 2%
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+24
98.3%
Mike Carrigan run for 9 yds to the Clem 46 for a 1ST down CLEMSON Penalty, Personal Foul (Tanner Muse) to the Clem 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:0098% → 98%
Q2 11:00
4TH & 1
OWN 33
0
97.8%
Will Spiers punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Zaquon Tyson at the KntSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 2:132% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 9INT7 plays · 52 yds · 2:1298% → 98%
Q2 8:22
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+6
97.9%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Tee Higgins for 6 yds to the Clem 44Similar
Q2 7:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-15
97.7%
CLEMSON Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Tee Higgins) to the KntSt 24Similar
Q2 6:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 24
+17
97.7%
Bryant, Kelly pass complete to Overton, Diondre for 19 yards to the KENTST5, PENALTY KENTST pass interference 17 yards to the KENTST7, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CLEMSON.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 2:143% → 3%
Q2 3:26
4TH & 10
OWN 10
+5
97.3%
Derek Adams punt for 50 yds , Ray-Ray McCloud returns for 5 yds to the Clem 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 11TD9 plays · 55 yds · 2:0498% → 99%
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
97.6%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Deon Cain for 9 yds to the KntSt 46Similar
Q2 2:25
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+9
97.5%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 9 yds to the KntSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:47
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+8
97.6%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 8 yds to the KntSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 12PUNT9 plays · 4 yds · 0:173% → 3%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 13END OF HALF5 plays · 27 yds · 0:3799% → 99%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
98.8%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 6 yds to the Clem 40Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+8
98.8%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to C.J. Fuller for 8 yds to the Clem 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
98.9%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 8 yds to the KntSt 44Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+5
99.0%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to C.J. Fuller for 5 yds to the KntSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:371% → 1%
Q3 14:04
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
98.8%
Nick Holley pass complete to Justin Rankin for 1 yd to the KntSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 15TD8 plays · 89 yds · 2:2199% → 100%
Q3 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+44
99.2%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Milan Richard for 44 yds to the KntSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:37
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+14
99.4%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Trevion Thompson for 14 yds to the KntSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+9
99.4%
Bryant, Kelly pass incomplete to Higgins, Tee, PENALTY KENTST pass interference (Foster, Jerrell) 9 yards to the KENTST2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CLEMSON.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 16PUNT6 plays · -4 yds · 2:300% → 0%
Q3 8:09
4TH & 14
OWN 18
+7
99.7%
Derek Adams punt for 44 yds , Amari Rodgers returns for 7 yds to the Clem 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 17TD2 plays · 55 yds · 0:25100% → 100%
KENTDrive 18PUNT9 plays · 21 yds · 3:080% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 19TD12 plays · 80 yds · 3:05100% → 100%
Q3 3:30
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+12
99.9%
Zerrick Cooper pass complete to Tee Higgins for 12 yds to the Clem 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:09
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+3
99.9%
Zerrick Cooper pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 3 yds to the KntSt 45Similar
Q3 1:53
4TH & 2
OPP 45
+5
99.9%
KENT ST Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the KntSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+15
99.9%
Cooper, Zerrick pass incomplete to Overton, Diondre, PENALTY KENTST pass interference (Daniel, Miles) 15 yards to the KENTST14, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CLEMSON.Similar
Q3 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
99.9%
Zerrick Cooper pass complete to Cornell Powell for 14 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:010% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 21TD8 plays · 92 yds · 2:48100% → 100%
Q4 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
99.9%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to J.C. Chalk for 1 yd to the KntSt 34Similar
Q4 12:15
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+18
99.9%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to J.C. Chalk for 18 yds to the KntSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+9
99.9%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 9 yds to the KntSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 22PUNT8 plays · 17 yds · 4:140% → 0%
Q4 6:35
4TH & 4
OWN 42
+5
100.0%
Derek Adams punt for 38 yds , Amir Trapp returns for 5 yds to the Clem 47 CLEMSON Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Clem 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 23PUNT9 plays · 6 yds · 2:06100% → 100%
KENTDrive 24PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 2:050% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 25END OF GAME5 plays · 41 yds · 1:38100% → 100%
Q4 1:13
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+4
100.0%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Jayson Hopper for 4 yds to the Clem 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:13
Kelly Bryant run for 8 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK)
+1.1
FG · Q2 12:14
Shane Hynes 37 yd FG GOOD
-0.7
TD · Q1 3:18
Adam Choice run for 3 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK)
+0.5