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BC

Boston College 23 at Northern Illinois 20

NIU
2017 · Week 1 · Sep 1, 2017 · Huskie Stadium
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Win probability · NIU
modelNIU aheadBC aheadconfidence bandkey playNIU scoreBC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDFGTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:03 · Matt Ference punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Michael Walker at the BC 41
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 123Pregame prior−5.1Home team on offense−3.4Score differential−1.1Garbage-time factor−1.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:30: Anthony Brown pass complete to Michael Walker for 5 yds for a TD, (Colton Lichtenberg KICK) — BC win probability +15.2 pts (now 64%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:48: Anthony Brown pass complete to Ray Marten for 4 yds for a TD, (Colton Lichtenberg KICK) — BC win probability +10.8 pts (now 74%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:15: Ryan Graham pass complete to Shane Wimann for 7 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK) — NIU win probability +19.1 pts (now 49%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  4. FG · Q4 14:18: Christian Hagan 21 yd FG GOOD — NIU win probability +8.2 pts (now 55%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 2:13: Colton Lichtenberg 37 yd FG GOOD — BC win probability +22.9 pts (now 80%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NIU made the numbers' call on 11 of 13BC made the numbers' call on 14 of 14
  1. Q1 15:00BC 4th & 8 at BC 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.7%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:19NIU 4th & 5 at NIU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.7%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:00NIU 4th & 5 at BC 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.8%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.8%
    83% to make
    Punt
    43.7%−1.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:55BC 4th & 5 at BC 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:43NIU 4th & 13 at NIU 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.9%−0.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.8%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:09BC 4th & 7 at NIU 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.5%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.6%
    66% to make
    Punt
    49.8%−2.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:56BC 4th & 25 at BC 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.2%−1.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:43NIU 4th & 6 at NIU 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.1%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:15BC 4th & 8 at BC 6, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.3%−1.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:54NIU 4th & 6 at BC 41, up 7
    Close callPunted · 57.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    57.4%−0.9
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    57.6%−0.6
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:05BC 4th & 5 at NIU 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.4%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.6%
    80% to make
    Punt
    33.2%−6.4
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:41NIU 4th & 5 at NIU 19, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.1%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 14:56NIU 4th & 7 at NIU 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.7%−1.0
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%
    average punt
  14. Q3 13:36BC 4th & 10 at NIU 40, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.2%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    55.7%−0.6
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.3%
    average punt
  15. Q3 11:03NIU 4th & 10 at NIU 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%−1.7
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.4%
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:10BC 4th & 6 at BC 23, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.6%−2.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.7%
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:18NIU 4th & 3 at BC 4, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.2%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.6%−1.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    30.3%−15.9
    average punt
  18. Q4 14:12BC 4th & 17 at BC 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.2%−5.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.7%
    average punt
  19. Q4 12:59NIU 4th & 1 at BC 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    50.8%−6.4
    45% to make
    Punt
    48.9%−8.3
    average punt
  20. Q4 11:44BC 4th & 6 at BC 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.8%−0.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.5%
    average punt
  21. Q4 10:20BC 4th & 8 at BC 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.3%−3.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.5%
    average punt
  22. Q4 9:39NIU 4th & 10 at NIU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%−4.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.9%
    average punt
  23. Q4 7:17BC 4th & 1 at BC 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    47.1%−6.3
    average punt
  24. Q4 7:17BC 4th & 4 at NIU 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    47.9%−4.7
    42% to make
    Punt
    46.3%−6.3
    average punt
  25. Q4 2:13BC 4th & 6 at NIU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.5%−1.4
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.8%
    75% to make
    Punt
    21.5%−26.4
    average punt
  26. Q4 1:47NIU 4th & 7 at NIU 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.4%
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    15.2%−4.2
    average punt
  27. Q4 0:21NIU 4th & 9 at BC 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.5%−18.2
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.7%
    72% to make
    Punt
    11.3%−28.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NIU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2BC made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 14:56NIU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:30BC Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 7:48BC Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:15NIU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BCDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
38.3%
Thadd Smith run for 11 yds to the BC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
38.3%
Jon Hilliman run for 3 yds to the BC 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 42
-10
38.3%
Brown,A pass complete to Smith,J for 11 yards to the NIU47 (JONES, Bobby), PENALTY BC holding 10 yards to the BC32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 32
0
38.3%
Anthony Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 32
+9
38.3%
Anthony Brown run for 9 yds to the BC 41Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 41
0
38.3%
Mike Knoll punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Chad Beebe at the NoIll 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q1 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
38.9%
Ryan Graham run for 3 yds to the NoIll 17Similar
Q1 13:19
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+2
38.9%
Marcus Jones run for 2 yds to the NoIll 19Similar
Q1 13:19
3RD & 5
OWN 19
0
38.9%
Ryan Graham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:19
4TH & 5
OWN 19
0
38.8%
Matt Ference punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 3INT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
39.2%
Jon Hilliman run for 7 yds to the BC 45Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+1
39.1%
Jon Hilliman run for 1 yd to the BC 46Similar
Q1 12:10
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+5
39.1%
Jon Hilliman run for 5 yds to the NoIll 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
39.0%
Anthony Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+4
39.0%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Jeff Smith for 4 yds to the NoIll 45Similar
Q1 12:10
3RD & 6
OPP 45
0
39.1%
Anthony Brown pass intercepted Kyle Pugh return for no gain to the NoIll 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 4FG
9 plays · 45 yds · 3:0940% → 42%
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
40.4%
D.J. Brown run for 4 yds to the NoIll 44Similar
Q1 10:09
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+2
40.6%
Jordan Huff run for 2 yds to the NoIll 46Similar
Q1 10:09
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+15
40.4%
GRAHAM, Ryan pass incomplete to BLAKE, Christia, PENALTY BC roughing the kicker (Harris,W) 15 yards to the BC39, 1ST DOWN NIU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+19
40.7%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Chad Beebe for 19 yds to the BC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
40.8%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BC 25Similar
Q1 10:09
1ST & 15
OPP 25
0
40.7%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Jordan HuffSimilar
Q1 10:09
2ND & 15
OPP 25
+3
40.5%
Jordan Huff run for 3 yds to the BC 22Similar
Q1 10:09
3RD & 12
OPP 22
+7
40.4%
Ryan Graham run for 7 yds to the BC 15Similar
Q1 7:00
4TH & 5
OPP 15
+32
42.2%
Christian Hagan 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 28 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
42.2%
Jon Hilliman run for no gain to the BC 17Similar
Q1 6:55
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+23
42.3%
Thadd Smith run for 23 yds to the BC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
41.7%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Ray Marten for 3 yds to the BC 43Similar
Q1 6:55
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+1
41.5%
Jon Hilliman run for 1 yd to the BC 44Similar
Q1 6:55
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+1
41.7%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Michael Walker for 1 yd to the BC 45Similar
Q1 6:55
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
42.3%
Mike Knoll punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Chad Beebe at the NoIll 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:0043% → 42%
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
42.8%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Chad Beebe for 6 yds to the NoIll 21Similar
Q1 4:43
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+3
42.9%
Ryan Graham run for 3 yds to the NoIll 24Similar
Q1 4:43
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+4
42.6%
Marcus Jones run for 4 yds to the NoIll 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
43.0%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Marcus JonesSimilar
Q1 4:43
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
42.8%
Ryan Graham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:43
3RD & 10
OWN 28
-3
42.4%
Tommy Mister run for a loss of 3 yards to the NoIll 25Similar
Q1 4:43
4TH & 13
OWN 25
0
42.1%
Matt Ference punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BC 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 7FG
9 plays · 34 yds · 2:1757% → 58%
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+18
43.0%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Jeff Smith for 3 yds to the NoIll 44 for a 1ST down NORTHERNIL Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the NoIll 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
42.6%
AJ Dillon run for 6 yds to the NoIll 35Similar
Q1 2:26
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+1
42.0%
AJ Dillon run for 1 yd to the NoIll 34Similar
Q1 2:26
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+6
42.5%
AJ Dillon run for 6 yds to the NoIll 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
42.0%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Jeff Smith, broken up by Mykelti WilliamsSimilar
Q1 2:26
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
42.2%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Michael WalkerSimilar
Q1 2:26
3RD & 10
OPP 28
-5
42.7%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NoIll 33Similar
Q1 2:26
3RD & 15
OPP 33
+8
43.5%
Anthony Brown run for 8 yds to the NoIll 25Similar
Q1 0:09
4TH & 7
OPP 25
+42
42.1%
Colton Lichtenberg 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 8TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:1344% → 51%
Q1 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+60
43.6%
Ryan Graham run for 60 yds to the BC 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
50.6%
Ryan Graham pass complete to D.J. Brown for 15 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 0:0052% → 51%
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-6
48.2%
Jon Hilliman run for a loss of 6 yards to the BC 29Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 16
OWN 29
+11
48.9%
Jeff Smith run for 11 yds to the BC 40Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+20
48.1%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Kobay White for 20 yds to the NoIll 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
47.0%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the NoIll 35Similar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 5
OPP 35
-1
46.1%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Jon Hilliman for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 36Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 6
OPP 36
-1
46.9%
Jon Hilliman run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 37Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 7
OPP 37
-18
47.3%
Team run for a loss of 18 yards to the BC 45Similar
Q2 14:56
4TH & 25
OWN 45
+10
49.5%
Mike Knoll punt for 53 yds , Chad Beebe returns for 10 yds to the NoIll 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 35 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+18
51.4%
Marcus Jones run for 18 yds to the NoIll 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
51.6%
Christian Blake run for 6 yds to the NoIll 36Similar
Q2 11:43
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+7
52.6%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Shane Wimann for 7 yds to the NoIll 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
52.8%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to D.J. BrownSimilar
Q2 11:43
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+4
52.4%
Ryan Graham run for 4 yds to the NoIll 47Similar
Q2 11:43
3RD & 6
OWN 47
0
52.2%
Christian Blake run for no gain to the NoIll 47Similar
Q2 11:43
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
51.0%
Matt Ference punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BC 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0047% → 45%
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+3
53.2%
Jon Hilliman run for 3 yds to the BC 7Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 7
OWN 7
+5
53.4%
Jon Hilliman run for 5 yds to the BC 12Similar
Q2 9:15
3RD & 2
OWN 12
-6
53.9%
Jon Hilliman run for a loss of 6 yards to the BC 6Similar
Q2 9:15
4TH & 8
OWN 6
0
54.7%
Mike Knoll punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BC 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0057% → 55%
Q2 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
57.3%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Spencer Tears for 3 yds to the BC 42Similar
Q2 7:54
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+1
57.2%
Jordan Huff run for 1 yd to the BC 41Similar
Q2 7:54
3RD & 6
OPP 41
0
56.5%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to D.J. BrownSimilar
Q2 7:54
4TH & 6
OPP 41
0
55.2%
Matt Ference punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 13FG
13 plays · 63 yds · 4:2745% → 49%
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
55.3%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Jeff SmithSimilar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+13
55.5%
Jeff Smith run for 13 yds to the BC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
54.7%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Jeff Smith for 11 yds to the BC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
53.7%
AJ Dillon run for 2 yds to the BC 46Similar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+5
53.4%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Jon Hilliman for 5 yds to the NoIll 49Similar
Q2 6:32
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+5
53.2%
Anthony Brown run for 5 yds to the NoIll 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
52.8%
Jon Hilliman run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 45Similar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+3
53.6%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Michael Walker for 3 yds to the NoIll 42Similar
Q2 6:32
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+20
53.3%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Kobay White for 20 yds to the NoIll 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
51.3%
Thadd Smith run for 7 yds to the NoIll 15Similar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 3
OPP 15
-2
51.3%
Jon Hilliman run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 17Similar
Q2 6:32
3RD & 5
OPP 17
0
52.6%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Jeff SmithSimilar
Q2 2:05
4TH & 5
OPP 17
+35
50.6%
Colton Lichtenberg 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 5 yds · 0:1853% → 52%
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
52.5%
Marcus Jones run for 4 yds to the NoIll 18Similar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+1
53.7%
Marcus Jones run for 1 yd to the NoIll 19Similar
Q2 1:45
3RD & 5
OWN 19
0
53.0%
Marcus Jones run for no gain to the NoIll 19Similar
Q2 1:41
4TH & 5
OWN 19
0
52.2%
Matt Ference punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 15TD
6 plays · 50 yds · 1:0447% → 64%
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
50
+4
53.4%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Kobay White for 4 yds to the NoIll 46Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 6
OPP 46
0
53.0%
Anthony Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:34
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+15
53.2%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Kobay White for 15 yds to the NoIll 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
51.5%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Kobay White for 5 yds to the NoIll 26Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+21
51.1%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Michael Walker for 21 yds to the NoIll 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
35.9%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Michael Walker for 5 yds for a TD, (Colton Lichtenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
42.6%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0042% → 40%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
42.2%
Jordan Huff run for 1 yd to the NoIll 24Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+2
42.0%
Jordan Huff run for 2 yds to the NoIll 26Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 7
OWN 26
0
40.9%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Jauan WesleySimilar
Q3 14:56
4TH & 7
OWN 26
0
40.2%
Matt Ference punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BC 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 0:0060% → 59%
Q3 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
39.7%
Jon Hilliman run for 6 yds to the BC 41Similar
Q3 13:36
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+7
38.3%
Thadd Smith run for 7 yds to the BC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
38.2%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Jeff SmithSimilar
Q3 13:36
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+9
38.3%
Jon Hilliman run for 9 yds to the NoIll 43Similar
Q3 13:36
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+3
37.8%
Jon Hilliman run for 3 yds to the NoIll 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
37.8%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Tommy SweeneySimilar
Q3 13:36
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+3
37.8%
Ben Glines run for 3 yds to the NoIll 37Similar
Q3 13:36
3RD & 7
OPP 37
-3
38.3%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Jon Hilliman for a loss of 3 yards to the NoIll 40Similar
Q3 13:36
4TH & 10
OPP 40
0
40.8%
Mike Knoll punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoIll 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0042% → 39%
Q3 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
41.5%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Chad BeebeSimilar
Q3 11:03
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
41.4%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Christian BlakeSimilar
Q3 11:03
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
39.7%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Chad BeebeSimilar
Q3 11:03
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
39.1%
Matt Ference punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Michael Walker at the BC 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 20TD
8 plays · 59 yds · 2:5761% → 74%
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+17
38.8%
Jon Hilliman run for 17 yds to the NoIll 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
38.2%
Jon Hilliman run for 1 yd to the NoIll 41Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+5
38.2%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Charlie Callinan for 5 yds to the NoIll 36Similar
Q3 10:45
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+8
38.2%
Thadd Smith run for 8 yds to the NoIll 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+17
36.8%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Chris Garrison for 17 yds to the NoIll 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
36.8%
Jon Hilliman run for 5 yds to the NoIll 6Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+2
36.8%
Jon Hilliman run for 2 yds to the NoIll 4Similar
Q3 7:48
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+4
26.1%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Ray Marten for 4 yds for a TD, (Colton Lichtenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 21TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 5:2826% → 49%
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
26.1%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Chad Beebe for 11 yds to the NoIll 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
26.9%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to D.J. Brown, broken up by Lukas DenisSimilar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+14
26.6%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Spencer Tears for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
50
-10
28.6%
HUFF, Jordan rush for 1 yard to the BC49 (Ray,W), PENALTY NIU holding (ROBERTS, Ryan) 10 yards to the NIU40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:43
1ST & 20
OWN 40
0
26.7%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Shane WimannSimilar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 20
OWN 40
+12
26.5%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Spencer Tears for 12 yds to the BC 48Similar
Q3 7:43
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+5
27.6%
GRAHAM, Ryan pass incomplete to BROWN, D.J., PENALTY BC pass interference (Bletzer,K) 5 yards to the BC43, 1ST DOWN NIU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
28.9%
HUFF, Jordan rush for no gain to the BC43 (Harris,W;Merritt,N), PENALTY BC offside 5 yards to the BC38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:43
1ST & 5
OPP 38
+4
29.0%
Ryan Graham run for 4 yds to the BC 34Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 1
OPP 34
-7
30.3%
D.J. Brown run for 3 yds to the BC 31 NORTHERNIL Penalty, Offensive holding (Shane Wimann) to the BC 41Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+10
28.9%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Chad Beebe for 10 yds to the BC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+13
30.3%
Christian Blake pass complete to Ryan Graham for 13 yds to the BC 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+8
30.3%
Marcus Jones run for 8 yds to the BC 10Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 2
OPP 10
+3
30.3%
Ryan Graham run for 3 yds to the BC 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
30.3%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Spencer Tears, broken up by Kamrin MooreSimilar
Q3 2:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
49.4%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Shane Wimann for 7 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0061% → 58%
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
39.2%
AJ Dillon run for 5 yds to the BC 24Similar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 5
OWN 24
-1
38.7%
Thadd Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 23Similar
Q3 2:10
3RD & 6
OWN 23
0
40.6%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Tommy SweeneySimilar
Q3 2:10
4TH & 6
OWN 23
0
42.2%
Mike Knoll punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Chad Beebe at the NoIll 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 23FG
5 plays · 53 yds · 1:4745% → 55%
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+46
45.3%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Chad Beebe for 46 yds to the BC 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
49.4%
Ryan Graham run for 3 yds to the BC 8Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+4
49.7%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Shane Wimann for 4 yds to the BC 4Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 4
0
46.9%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Christian Blake, broken up by Lukas DenisSimilar
Q4 14:18
4TH & 3
OPP 4
+21
55.0%
Christian Hagan 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:0051% → 47%
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-1
48.9%
Jon Hilliman run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 16Similar
Q4 14:12
2ND & 11
OWN 16
0
49.7%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Charlie Callinan, broken up by Josh CorcoranSimilar
Q4 14:12
3RD & 11
OWN 16
-6
51.3%
Anthony Brown sacked by Drequan Brown for a loss of 6 yards to the BC 10Similar
Q4 14:12
4TH & 17
OWN 10
+1
52.8%
Mike Knoll punt for 35 yds , Chad Beebe returns for 1 yd to the BC 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 25DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0059% → 56%
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
58.8%
Ryan Graham run for 6 yds to the BC 38Similar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+3
58.9%
Ryan Graham run for 3 yds to the BC 35Similar
Q4 12:59
3RD & 1
OPP 35
0
58.3%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Christian BlakeSimilar
Q4 12:59
4TH & 1
OPP 35
-1
55.9%
Chad Beebe run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0052% → 49%
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
47.6%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Korab Idrizi for no gain to the BC 36Similar
Q4 11:44
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-7
48.5%
Jon Hilliman run for 8 yds to the BC 44 BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, illegal block (Jon Baker) to the BC 29Similar
Q4 11:44
2ND & 17
OWN 29
+11
50.0%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Michael Walker for 11 yds to the BC 40Similar
Q4 11:44
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
47.2%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Kobay White, broken up by Joe SandersSimilar
Q4 11:44
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
50.8%
Mike Knoll punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Chad Beebe at the NoIll 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 27INT
3 plays · -5 yds · 0:0055% → 54%
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
54.5%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Spencer TearsSimilar
Q4 10:31
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-5
53.8%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NoIll 21Similar
Q4 10:31
2ND & 15
OWN 21
0
53.5%
Ryan Graham pass intercepted Lukas Denis return for no gain to the BC 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0054% → 49%
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
45.8%
Jeff Smith run for 2 yds to the BC 43Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 8
OWN 43
0
45.5%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Jeff SmithSimilar
Q4 10:20
3RD & 8
OWN 43
0
47.5%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Kobay WhiteSimilar
Q4 10:20
4TH & 8
OWN 43
+6
50.8%
Mike Knoll punt for 48 yds , Chad Beebe returns for 6 yds to the NoIll 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 29PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0054% → 50%
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
53.7%
Marcus Jones run for 6 yds to the NoIll 21Similar
Q4 9:39
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+3
54.6%
Marcus Jones run for 3 yds to the NoIll 24Similar
Q4 9:39
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+2
53.0%
Marcus Jones run for 2 yds to the NoIll 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
54.6%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Chad BeebeSimilar
Q4 9:39
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
53.8%
Marcus Jones run for no gain to the NoIll 26Similar
Q4 9:39
3RD & 10
OWN 26
0
51.7%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Chad Beebe, broken up by Harold LandrySimilar
Q4 9:39
4TH & 10
OWN 26
+11
50.2%
Matt Ference punt for 51 yds , Michael Walker returns for 11 yds to the BC 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 30FG
14 plays · 46 yds · 5:0452% → 80%
Q4 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
47.7%
Jon Hilliman run for 1 yd to the BC 35Similar
Q4 7:17
2ND & 9
OWN 35
-9
47.8%
Anthony Brown sacked by Sutton Smith for a loss of 9 yards to the BC 26Similar
Q4 7:17
3RD & 18
OWN 26
+17
51.5%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Korab Idrizi for 17 yds to the BC 43Similar
Q4 7:17
4TH & 1
OWN 43
+2
47.9%
Anthony Brown run for 2 yds to the BC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
44.8%
Jon Hilliman run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 43Similar
Q4 7:17
2ND & 12
OWN 43
+15
47.0%
Brown,A pass incomplete to Moore,K, PENALTY NIU pass interference (SMITH, Trequan) 15 yards to the NIU42, 1ST DOWN BC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
43.4%
Jon Hilliman run for no gain to the NoIll 42Similar
Q4 7:17
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+4
43.5%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Michael Walker for 4 yds to the NoIll 38Similar
Q4 7:17
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+2
44.2%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Michael Walker for 2 yds to the NoIll 36Similar
Q4 7:17
4TH & 4
OPP 36
+12
46.8%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Kobay White for 12 yds to the NoIll 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
41.2%
Anthony Brown run for 1 yd to the NoIll 23Similar
Q4 7:17
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+3
41.2%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Michael Walker for 3 yds to the NoIll 20Similar
Q4 7:17
3RD & 6
OPP 20
0
43.4%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Michael WalkerSimilar
Q4 2:13
4TH & 6
OPP 20
+37
20.4%
Colton Lichtenberg 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 31MISSED FG
14 plays · 53 yds · 1:5232% → 22%
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
32.0%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to D.J. BrownSimilar
Q4 2:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
31.3%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Chad Beebe, broken up by Tanner KarafaSimilar
Q4 2:13
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+3
29.5%
Ryan Graham run for 3 yds to the NoIll 28Similar
Q4 1:47
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+19
24.9%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Shane Wimann for 19 yds to the NoIll 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
33.9%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Christian BlakeSimilar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+16
33.1%
Ryan Graham pass complete to D.J. Brown for 16 yds to the BC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+14
36.2%
GRAHAM, Ryan pass incomplete to BEEBE, Chad, PENALTY BC pass interference (Moore,K) 14 yards to the BC23, 1ST DOWN NIU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
39.9%
Ryan Graham run for no gain to the BC 23Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+1
38.8%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Chad Beebe for 1 yd to the BC 22Similar
Q4 0:31
3RD & 9
OPP 22
0
30.4%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Christian BlakeSimilar
Q4 0:21
4TH & 9
OPP 22
+39
22.1%
Christian Hagan 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 32END OF GAME
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0393% → 94%
Q4 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
6.8%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, delay of game (5 Yards) to the BC 27Similar
Q4 0:21
1ST & 5
OWN 27
-3
6.3%
Team run for a loss of 3 yards to the BC 24Similar
Q4 0:18
2ND & 8
OWN 24
-3
6.5%
Team run for a loss of 3 yards to the BC 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 2:13
Colton Lichtenberg 37 yd FG GOOD
-22.9
TD · Q3 2:15
Ryan Graham pass complete to Shane Wimann for 7 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)
+19.1
TD · Q2 0:30
Anthony Brown pass complete to Michael Walker for 5 yds for a TD, (Colton Lichtenberg KICK)
-15.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com