2017 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2017 · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · WAKE
modelWAKE aheadPRES aheadconfidence bandkey playWAKE scorePRES score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:48 · Brett Norton punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jessie Bates III at the WFrst 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 11:18: John Wolford pass complete to Cam Serigne for 8 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver PAT MISSED) — PRES win probability +0.1 pts (now 1%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
- TD · Q1 7:48: John Wolford pass complete to Cam Serigne for 26 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK) — WAKE win probability +0.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:29: John Wolford run for 2 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK) — WAKE win probability +0.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:25: John Wolford pass complete to Greg Dortch for 7 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK) — WAKE win probability +0.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:15: Kendall Hinton pass complete to Greg Dortch for 42 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK) — WAKE win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WAKE made the numbers' call on 2 of 3PRES made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
- Q1 15:00PRES 4th & 4 at PRES 22, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snapGo for it1.0%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.0%average punt
- Q1 11:18PRES 4th & 20 at PRES 26, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snapGo for it1.1%−0.29% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.3%average punt
- Q1 7:48PRES 4th & 1 at PRES 34, down 13Close callPunted · 1.3% before the snapGo for it1.4%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.3%−0.1average punt
- Q1 0:34WAKE 4th & 4 at PRES 4, up 13Close callKicked a field goal · 98.4% before the snapGo for it98.4%40% to convertField goalTheir call98.3%−<0.193% to makePunt97.8%−0.5average punt
- Q2 15:00PRES 4th & 21 at PRES 9, down 16Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snapGo for it1.6%−0.28% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.8%average punt
- Q2 8:25PRES 4th & 8 at PRES 36, down 30Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.4%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q2 4:15PRES 4th & 11 at PRES 37, down 37Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 4:38PRES 4th & 2 at WAKE 11, down 44Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%56% to convertField goal0.1%−0.187% to makePunt-0.4%−0.5average punt
- Q3 1:39PRES 4th & 7 at PRES 33, down 51Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 15:00WAKE 4th & 12 at PRES 44, up 51Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−0.124% to convertField goal99.9%−0.127% to makePuntTheir call100.0%average punt
- Q4 6:13PRES 4th & 7 at WAKE 34, down 44Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%37% to convertField goal0.0%−<0.147% to makePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 2:53WAKE 4th & 1 at WAKE 43, up 44Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 100.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call100.0%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt99.9%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WAKE made the numbers' call on 7 of 7PRES made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 11:18WAKE Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call98.9%97% to makeGo for two98.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:48WAKE Touchdown, up 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.7%97% to makeGo for two98.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:29WAKE Touchdown, up 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.0%97% to makeGo for two99.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:25WAKE Touchdown, up 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:15WAKE Touchdown, up 36 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:51WAKE Touchdown, up 43 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:39WAKE Touchdown, up 50 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:23PRES Touchdown, down 45 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.1%97% to makeGo for two0.1%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartPRESDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:001% → 1%
WAKEDrive 2TD5 plays · 33 yds · 1:3099% → 99%
Q1 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
98.9%
John Wolford pass complete to Cade Carney for 7 yds to the Presb 26Similar
Q1 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+9
98.9%
John Wolford pass complete to Tabari Hines for 9 yds to the Presb 12Similar
Q1 11:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
98.9%
John Wolford pass complete to Cam Serigne for 8 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRESDrive 3PUNT6 plays · 1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
98.8%
Ben Cheek pass complete to DaShawn Davis for 11 yds to the Presb 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
98.8%
Ben Cheek run for a loss of 1 yard to the Presb 35 Ben Cheek fumbled, recovered by Presb Torrance MarableSimilar
Q1 11:18
3RD & 11
OWN 35
-9
98.8%
Ben Cheek sacked by Jaboree Williams for a loss of 9 yards to the Presb 26Similar
Q1 11:18
4TH & 20
OWN 26
+7
98.8%
Brett Norton punt for 44 yds , Greg Dortch returns for 7 yds to the WFrst 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 4TD6 plays · 63 yds · 1:4199% → 99%
PRESDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 7:48
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
98.7%
Brett Norton punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jessie Bates III at the WFrst 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 6FG17 plays · 71 yds · 5:0099% → 99%
Q1 5:34
2ND & 11
OPP 42
+9
98.7%
John Wolford pass complete to Cortez Lewis for 9 yds to the Presb 33Similar
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
98.6%
PRESBYTERIAN Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Presb 26Similar
Q1 2:26
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+6
98.6%
John Wolford pass complete to Greg Dortch for 6 yds to the Presb 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+10
98.6%
John Wolford pass complete to Jr. Chuck Wade for 10 yds to the Presb 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
98.6%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Greg Dortch, broken up by Robert BakerSimilar
Q1 2:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
98.6%
John Wolford pass complete to Matt Colburn Ii for 6 yds to the Presb 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRESDrive 7POSSESSION (FOR OT DRIVES)2 plays · 1 yds · 0:002% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRESDrive 8PUNT3 plays · -12 yds · 0:002% → 2%
WAKEDrive 9TD7 plays · 33 yds · 1:5299% → 99%
Q2 13:21
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+5
98.5%
John Wolford pass complete to Tabari Hines for 5 yds to the Presb 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:21
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+5
98.5%
Wolford, J middle pass incomplete to Serigne, C, PENALTY PC offside (PRESLEY, K.) 5 yards to the PC10, 1ST DOWN WF, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRESDrive 10INT6 plays · 11 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 11:29
3RD & 11
OWN 20
+22
99.0%
Ben Cheek pass intercepted Justin Strnad return for 22 yds to the Presb 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 11TD1 play · 7 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 8:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.4%
John Wolford pass complete to Greg Dortch for 7 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRESDrive 12PUNT6 plays · 15 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 8:25
4TH & 8
OWN 36
0
99.6%
Brett Norton punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Greg Dortch at the WFrst 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 13TD6 plays · 75 yds · 2:07100% → 100%
Q2 6:22
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
99.6%
Kendall Hinton pass complete to Greg Dortch for no gain to the WFrst 28Similar
Q2 6:22
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+15
99.6%
Hinton, K sideline pass incomplete to Bachman, A, PENALTY PC pass interference (YA-SIN, R.) 15 yards to the WF43, 1ST DOWN WF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
99.7%
Kendall Hinton pass complete to Greg Dortch for 42 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRESDrive 14PUNT9 plays · 17 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 4:15
4TH & 11
OWN 37
+17
99.8%
Brett Norton punt for 41 yds , Greg Dortch returns for 17 yds to the WAKEFOREST 46 PRESBYTERIAN Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Brett Norton) to the Presb 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 15END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 16TD9 plays · 81 yds · 3:09100% → 100%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 24
0
99.8%
Kendall Hinton pass complete to Tabari Hines for no gain to the WFrst 24Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 24
+10
99.8%
Kendall Hinton pass complete to Tabari Hines for 10 yds to the WFrst 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
99.8%
Kendall Hinton sacked by KJ Presley for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 43Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 43
+28
99.8%
Kendall Hinton pass complete to Scotty Washington for 28 yds to the Presb 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
99.8%
Kendall Hinton pass complete to Alex Bachman for 29 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRESDrive 17DOWNS14 plays · 67 yds · 7:130% → 0%
Q3 11:51
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-1
99.9%
Ben Cheek sacked by Duke Ejiofor for a loss of 1 yard to the Presb 34Similar
Q3 11:51
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+30
99.9%
Ben Cheek pass complete to DarQuez Watson for 30 yds to the WFrst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:51
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+8
99.8%
Torrance Marable run for 8 yds to the WFrst 19 Torrance Marable fumbled, forced by Jessie Bates III, recovered by Presb Riley Hilton for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:51
4TH & 7
OPP 16
+5
99.8%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, Defensive offside (Jaboree Williams) to the WFrst 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 18TD9 plays · 88 yds · 2:54100% → 100%
Q3 4:33
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+15
99.9%
Kendall Hinton pass complete to Tabari Hines for 15 yds to the Presb 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRESDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 20PUNT10 plays · 22 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
PRESDrive 21TD5 plays · 91 yds · 2:450% → 0%
Q4 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+58
100.0%
Torrance Marable run for 58 yds to the WFrst 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 22INT6 plays · 15 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
PRESDrive 23DOWNS7 plays · 39 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 24END OF GAME5 plays · 15 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:29
John Wolford run for 2 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK)
+0.6
TD · Q2 8:25
John Wolford pass complete to Greg Dortch for 7 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK)
+0.5
TD · Q2 4:15
Kendall Hinton pass complete to Greg Dortch for 42 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK)
+0.2