Try the model
MSU

Michigan State 40 at Rutgers 7

RUTG
2017 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2017 · High Point Solutions Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · RUTG
modelRUTG aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playRUTG scoreMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-1.3RUTG 19.0%Matt Coghlin 26 yd FG GOODAWAY 13 - HOME 0 · Q1 0:56
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:56 · Matt Coghlin 26 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 38Pregame prior−25.8Home team on offense−7.4Score differential−2.9Garbage-time factor−1.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 0:56: Matt Coghlin 26 yd FG GOOD — MSU win probability +1.3 pts (now 81%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:05: Johnathan Lewis pass complete to Raheem Blackshear for 42 yds for a TD, (Andrew Harte KICK) — RUTG win probability +5.2 pts (now 26%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. FG · Q3 7:29: Matt Coghlin 32 yd FG GOOD — MSU win probability +4.1 pts (now 84%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:55: Gerald Holmes run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +10.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:39: Brian Lewerke run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +2.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
RUTG made the numbers' call on 6 of 6MSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 8:41MSU 4th & 8 at RUTG 8, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.3%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.4%
    90% to make
    Punt
    78.3%−1.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:35RUTG 4th & 10 at RUTG 22, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:56MSU 4th & 8 at RUTG 8, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.4%
    90% to make
    Punt
    76.4%−2.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:00MSU 4th & 9 at MSU 48, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.8%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:07RUTG 4th & 10 at RUTG 20, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.0%−0.6
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:14MSU 4th & 2 at RUTG 28, up 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 77.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.3%−0.8
    60% to make
    Punt
    73.1%−4.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:14RUTG 4th & 11 at RUTG 36, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.4%−0.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00RUTG 4th & 11 at RUTG 24, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.7%−1.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:29MSU 4th & 9 at RUTG 14, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.9%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.0%
    84% to make
    Punt
    72.5%−6.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:23RUTG 4th & 2 at RUTG 21, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.8%−0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.9%
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:48MSU 4th & 4 at RUTG 8, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    99.3%−0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    98.4%−1.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:03RUTG 4th & 13 at RUTG 30, down 33
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RUTG made the numbers' call on 1 of 1MSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 9:49MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:05RUTG Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 14:55MSU Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 10:39MSU Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 3:09MSU Touchdown, up 32 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSUDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:1181% → 80%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
19.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 17 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
19.1%
LJ Scott run for 1 yd to the MchSt 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+7
19.1%
Brian Lewerke run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
50
+5
19.1%
LJ Scott run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+22
19.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Sokol for 22 yds to the Rutgr 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+16
19.1%
Brian Lewerke run for 16 yds to the Rutgr 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
19.1%
Laress Nelson run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 5Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
19.1%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 2Similar
Q1 9:54
3RD & 0
OPP 2
-5
21.2%
Lewerke, Brian rush for 2 yards to the RU0, clock 09:54, PENALTY MSU illegal formation 5 yards to the RU7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
20.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Connor Heyward for 7 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 2FUMBLE
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
20.4%
Gus Edwards run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 8 Gus Edwards fumbled, forced by Demetrius Cooper, recovered by MchSt Andrew DowellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5480% → 80%
Q1 9:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
20.1%
LJ Scott run for no gain to the Rutgr 8Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
20.1%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
20.1%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
Q1 8:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
19.9%
Matt Coghlin 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
20.4%
Giovanni Rescigno pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:35
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
20.4%
Giovanni Rescigno pass incomplete to Jerome WashingtonSimilar
Q1 8:35
3RD & 10
OWN 22
0
20.2%
Giovanni Rescigno pass incomplete to Jerome Washington, broken up by Joe BachieSimilar
Q1 8:35
4TH & 10
OWN 22
+21
20.1%
Ryan Anderson punt for 47 yds , Cody White returns for 21 yds to the Rutgr 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5FG
16 plays · 40 yds · 7:1280% → 81%
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
20.1%
LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 44Similar
Q1 8:08
2ND & 6
OPP 44
-3
20.1%
Brian Lewerke sacked by Kemoko Turay for a loss of 3 yards to the Rutgr 47Similar
Q1 8:08
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+12
20.2%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 12 yds to the Rutgr 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
20.1%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 32Similar
Q1 8:08
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+2
20.0%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 30Similar
Q1 8:08
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+13
20.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to LJ Scott for 13 yds to the Rutgr 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
20.0%
Gerald Holmes run for 7 yds to the Rutgr 10Similar
Q1 8:08
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+2
20.0%
Gerald Holmes run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 8Similar
Q1 8:08
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+1
20.2%
Brian Lewerke run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
20.0%
Gerald Holmes run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 2Similar
Q1 8:08
2ND & 0
OPP 2
-5
20.0%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Rutgr 7Similar
Q1 8:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
20.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 4 yds to the Rutgr 3Similar
Q1 8:08
3RD & 0
OPP 3
-5
20.1%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Rutgr 8Similar
Q1 8:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
20.1%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Cody White, broken up by Isaiah WhartonSimilar
Q1 8:08
4TH & 0
OPP 0
0
20.3%
RUTGERS Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the Rutgr 8Similar
Q1 0:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
19.0%
Matt Coghlin 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 6TD
7 plays · 73 yds · 1:4520% → 26%
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
20.0%
Robert Martin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rutgr 26Similar
Q1 0:50
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+10
19.9%
Lewis, J. pass incomplete to Nash, Myles, PENALTY MSU pass interference (Willis, Khari) 10 yards to the RU36, 1ST DOWN RU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
20.1%
Johnathan Lewis run for 6 yds to the Rutgr 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+1
20.5%
Robert Martin run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 43Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+15
20.3%
Johnathan Lewis pass incomplete for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, roughing passer (Kenny Willekes) to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
25.5%
Johnathan Lewis pass complete to Raheem Blackshear for 42 yds for a TD, (Andrew Harte KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 18 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
23.6%
White, Cody rush for 3 yards to the MSU33 (Wharton, Isaiah), PENALTY RU offside defense (Lumor, Elorm) 5 yards to the MSU35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 5
OWN 35
+3
23.3%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the MchSt 38Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+9
23.0%
LJ Scott run for 9 yds to the MchSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
22.9%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+6
22.9%
LJ Scott run for 6 yds to the Rutgr 47Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 4
OPP 47
-5
22.9%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, false start (Luke Campbell) to the MchSt 48Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 9
OWN 48
0
23.2%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Cody White, broken up by K.J. GraySimilar
Q2 14:00
4TH & 9
OWN 48
0
24.0%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0025% → 24%
Q2 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
24.6%
Raheem Blackshear run for no gain to the Rutgr 20Similar
Q2 11:07
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
24.5%
Johnathan Lewis pass incomplete to Raheem Blackshear, broken up by Andrew DowellSimilar
Q2 11:07
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
23.9%
Johnathan Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:07
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
23.6%
Ryan Anderson punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9FG
7 plays · 22 yds · 3:0677% → 80%
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
50
+9
22.7%
Gerald Holmes run for 9 yds to the Rutgr 41Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+5
22.6%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 5 yds to the Rutgr 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
22.7%
Gerald Holmes run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 31Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 5
OPP 31
0
22.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Trishton Jackson for no gain to the Rutgr 31Similar
Q2 8:04
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+3
21.3%
Gerald Holmes run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 28Similar
Q2 7:14
4TH & 2
OPP 28
+46
20.3%
Matt Coghlin 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
21.9%
Johnathan Lewis pass complete to Myles Nash for 8 yds to the Rutgr 33Similar
Q2 7:14
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
22.6%
Gus Edwards run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
22.4%
Johnathan Lewis pass incomplete to Dacoven BaileySimilar
Q2 7:14
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-9
22.3%
Johnathan Lewis run for 6 yds to the Rutgr 43 RUTGERS Penalty, personal foul (Marcus Applefield) to the Rutgr 28Similar
Q2 7:14
3RD & 19
OWN 28
+8
21.1%
Johnathan Lewis pass complete to Raheem Blackshear for 8 yds to the Rutgr 36Similar
Q2 7:14
4TH & 11
OWN 36
0
21.3%
Ryan Anderson punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Cody White at the MchSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11END OF HALF
13 plays · 31 yds · 3:5779% → 80%
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+13
21.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Noah Davis for 13 yds to the MchSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
20.6%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 11 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
20.0%
Brian Lewerke run for 3 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q2 4:49
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+5
20.0%
LJ Scott run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:49
3RD & 2
50
+5
20.2%
LJ Scott run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
19.8%
Brian Lewerke run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 42Similar
Q2 4:49
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+3
19.9%
Brian Lewerke run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 39Similar
Q2 1:11
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+10
19.3%
Brian Lewerke run for 10 yds to the Rutgr 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-15
18.4%
White, Cody pass complete to Sokol, Matt for 29 yards to the RU0, clock 00:52, PENALTY MSU clipping (Chewins, Cole) 15 yards to the RU44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 25
OPP 44
+2
19.2%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Gerald Holmes for 2 yds to the Rutgr 42Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 23
OPP 42
0
19.6%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Felton Davis III, broken up by Deonte RobertsSimilar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 23
OPP 42
-9
20.3%
Brian Lewerke sacked by Kemoko Turay and Julius Turner for a loss of 9 yards to the MchSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
22.2%
Johnathan Lewis sacked by Demetrius Cooper for a loss of 8 yards to the Rutgr 17Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+9
22.0%
Johnathan Lewis pass complete to Jerome Washington for 9 yds to the Rutgr 26Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-2
21.4%
Johnathan Lewis sacked by Raequan Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the Rutgr 24Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
20.9%
Ryan Anderson punt for 45 yds, downed at the MchSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13FG
12 plays · 55 yds · 5:2079% → 84%
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
21.1%
LJ Scott run for no gain to the MchSt 31Similar
Q3 12:49
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
21.4%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
Q3 12:49
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+18
22.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 18 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
20.2%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 12 yds to the Rutgr 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
20.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cam Chambers for 12 yds to the Rutgr 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-1
19.7%
LJ Scott run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rutgr 28Similar
Q3 12:49
2ND & 11
OPP 28
+13
19.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 13 yds to the Rutgr 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
19.7%
Brian Lewerke run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 11Similar
Q3 12:49
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+2
19.7%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 9Similar
Q3 12:49
3RD & 4
OPP 9
-5
20.2%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, false start (Noah Davis) to the Rutgr 14Similar
Q3 12:49
3RD & 9
OPP 14
0
20.4%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
Q3 7:29
4TH & 9
OPP 14
+32
16.3%
Matt Coghlin 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0018% → 17%
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
17.5%
Gus Edwards run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 18Similar
Q3 7:23
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+3
17.6%
Gus Edwards run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 21Similar
Q3 7:23
3RD & 2
OWN 21
0
17.4%
Johnathan Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:23
4TH & 2
OWN 21
0
17.0%
Ryan Anderson punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Cody White at the MchSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15TD
13 plays · 60 yds · 6:0085% → 97%
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
14.8%
Madre London run for 3 yds to the MchSt 43Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+10
14.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 10 yds to the Rutgr 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
14.6%
Madre London run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 45Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 8
OPP 45
0
14.6%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:55
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+13
14.8%
Brian Lewerke run for 13 yds to the Rutgr 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-1
14.2%
Madre London run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rutgr 33Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 11
OPP 33
+4
14.3%
Hunter Rison run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 29Similar
Q3 5:55
3RD & 7
OPP 29
+9
14.6%
Lewerke, Brian pass incomplete to White, Cody (Hayes, Damon), PENALTY RU pass interference (Hayes, Damon) 9 yards to the RU20, 1ST DOWN MSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
14.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Madre London for 3 yds to the Rutgr 17Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+3
14.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 3 yds to the Rutgr 14Similar
Q3 5:55
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+12
14.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 12 yds to the Rutgr 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
14.0%
Madre London run for no gain to the Rutgr 2Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
3.1%
Gerald Holmes run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 16INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
6.3%
Johnathan Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+15
6.3%
Johnathan Lewis pass intercepted Josiah Scott return for no gain to the Rutgr 19 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, personal foul (Andrew Dowell) to the Rutgr 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17TD
9 plays · 48 yds · 4:0197% → 100%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
3.2%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 46Similar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+9
3.2%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 9 yds to the Rutgr 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
3.2%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 34Similar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 7
OPP 34
0
3.1%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Trishton JacksonSimilar
Q4 12:42
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+24
2.7%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 24 yds to the Rutgr 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
2.6%
Brian Lewerke run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 5Similar
Q4 12:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
2.6%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 3Similar
Q4 10:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
0.4%
Brian Lewerke run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 18INT
4 plays · 31 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
0.3%
Johnathan Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:32
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+31
0.3%
Johnathan Lewis pass complete to Dacoven Bailey for 31 yds to the MchSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
0.4%
Johnathan Lewis pass intercepted Joe Bachie return for 15 yds to the MchSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19TD
12 plays · 54 yds · 6:39100% → 100%
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+13
0.4%
Gerald Holmes run for 13 yds to the Rutgr 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
0.4%
Gerald Holmes run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 38Similar
Q4 9:48
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+2
0.4%
Damion Terry run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 36Similar
Q4 9:48
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+10
0.4%
Gerald Holmes run for 10 yds to the Rutgr 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
0.4%
Madre London run for 6 yds to the Rutgr 20Similar
Q4 9:48
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+6
0.4%
Madre London run for 6 yds to the Rutgr 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
0.4%
Damion Terry run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 11Similar
Q4 9:48
2ND & 7
OPP 11
0
0.4%
Madre London run for no gain to the Rutgr 11Similar
Q4 9:48
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+3
0.4%
Madre London run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 8Similar
Q4 9:48
4TH & 4
OPP 0
0
0.4%
RUTGERS Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the Rutgr 8Similar
Q4 9:48
4TH & 4
OPP 8
+5
0.4%
Damion Terry run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
0.1%
Madre London run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
0.1%
Josh Hicks run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 35Similar
Q4 3:03
2ND & 8
OWN 35
0
0.1%
Johnathan Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:03
3RD & 8
OWN 35
-5
0.1%
RUTGERS Penalty, delay of game (Johnathan Lewis) to the Rutgr 30Similar
Q4 3:03
3RD & 13
OWN 30
0
0.1%
Johnathan Lewis pass complete to Josh Hicks for no gain to the Rutgr 30Similar
Q4 3:03
4TH & 13
OWN 30
0
0.1%
Ryan Anderson punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Laress Nelson at the MchSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21END OF GAME
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
0.1%
Connor Heyward run for 7 yds to the MchSt 31Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 3
OWN 31
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 29Similar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 5
OWN 29
-3
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:55
Gerald Holmes run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)
-10.9
TD · Q2 14:05
Johnathan Lewis pass complete to Raheem Blackshear for 42 yds for a TD, (Andrew Harte KICK)
+5.2
FG · Q3 7:29
Matt Coghlin 32 yd FG GOOD
-4.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com