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OSU

Ohio State 31 at Michigan 20

MICH
2017 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2017 · Michigan Stadium
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Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadOSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMICH scoreOSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:53 · John O'Korn pass incomplete to Chris Evans
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+39.5+19.80−19.8−39.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 151Pregame prior−4.1Home team on offense−6.0Garbage-time factor−5.3Score differential−1.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:50: J.T. Barrett run for 21 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK) — OSU win probability +7.0 pts (now 64%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:54: J.T. Barrett pass complete to Marcus Baugh for 25 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK) — OSU win probability +13.8 pts (now 73%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:07: Karan Higdon run for 2 yds for a TD, (Quinn Nordin PAT BLOCKED) — MICH win probability +13.2 pts (now 60%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:34: J.K. Dobbins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK) — OSU win probability +17.4 pts (now 69%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 10:21: Sean Nuernberger 44 yd FG GOOD — OSU win probability +7.9 pts (now 75%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MICH made the numbers' call on 6 of 8OSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 13:34MICH 4th & 7 at MICH 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.5%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:48OSU 4th & 3 at OSU 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.6%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:30OSU 4th & 18 at OSU 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.3%−0.5
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:14MICH 4th & 3 at OSU 44, up 7
    Close callPunted · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    32.8%−1.0
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    33.3%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:00OSU 4th & 20 at OSU 7, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.4%−1.4
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:01MICH 4th & 15 at MICH 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%−2.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:30MICH 4th & 13 at MICH 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.7%−2.0
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:02OSU 4th & 22 at OSU 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.4%−2.8
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:21MICH 4th & 1 at MICH 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.3%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:29OSU 4th & 1 at OSU 34, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.5%−1.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:54MICH 4th & 8 at MICH 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%−1.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:43OSU 4th & 11 at OSU 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%−3.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:50MICH 4th & 12 at MICH 43, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%−4.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:21OSU 4th & 9 at MICH 27, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.6%−1.9
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.5%
    62% to make
    Punt
    43.3%−16.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:53MICH 4th & 4 at OSU 39, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    29.3%−4.0
    36% to make
    Punt
    28.0%−5.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:47OSU 4th & 3 at MICH 27, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 82.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.0%−1.7
    62% to make
    Punt
    68.8%−12.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3OSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 6:02MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:57MICH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:50OSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:54OSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:07MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    57.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:34OSU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:44OSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.8%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MICHDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:0619% → 20%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
19.0%
Khalid Hill run for 3 yds to the Mich 28Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
19.2%
Chris Evans run for no gain to the Mich 28Similar
Q1 13:43
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
19.4%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Tyrone WheatleySimilar
Q1 13:34
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+10
19.5%
Brad Robbins punt for 41 yds , K.J. Hill returns for 10 yds to the OhSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3280% → 80%
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
19.6%
J.T. Barrett run for a loss of 2 yards to the OhSt 39Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 12
OWN 39
+3
19.8%
J.K. Dobbins run for 3 yds to the OhSt 42Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+6
20.1%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Parris Campbell for 6 yds to the OhSt 48Similar
Q1 11:48
4TH & 3
OWN 48
+14
20.4%
Drue Chrisman punt for 43 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for 14 yds to the Mich 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 3TD
14 plays · 77 yds · 5:4021% → 27%
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
20.5%
Chris Evans run for 9 yds to the Mich 32Similar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 1
OWN 32
0
20.8%
Karan Higdon run for no gain to the Mich 32Similar
Q1 11:10
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+1
20.8%
Khalid Hill run for 1 yd to the Mich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
21.1%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Khalid HillSimilar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+24
21.2%
Chris Evans run for 24 yds to the OhSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
22.0%
Ben Mason run for 2 yds to the OhSt 41Similar
Q1 9:08
2ND & 8
OPP 41
0
22.4%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Sean McKeonSimilar
Q1 9:03
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+27
22.3%
John O'Korn pass complete to Zach Gentry for 27 yds to the OhSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
22.8%
Chris Evans run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 15Similar
Q1 7:49
2ND & 11
OPP 15
0
23.2%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Sean McKeonSimilar
Q1 7:40
3RD & 11
OPP 15
+13
23.0%
John O'Korn pass complete to Chris Evans for 13 yds to the OhSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
23.5%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Juwann Bushell-Beatty) to the OhSt 7Similar
Q1 6:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
23.9%
John O'Korn pass complete to Zach Gentry for 5 yds to the OhSt 2Similar
Q1 6:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
26.8%
Khalid Hill run for 2 yds for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:2074% → 72%
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-5
26.1%
Parris Campbell run for a loss of 5 yards to the OhSt 12Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 15
OWN 12
-3
26.8%
J.T. Barrett sacked by Rashan Gary for a loss of 3 yards to the OhSt 9Similar
Q1 4:38
3RD & 18
OWN 9
0
27.7%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Binjimen VictorSimilar
Q1 4:30
4TH & 18
OWN 9
-2
28.0%
Drue Chrisman punt for 51 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 3:0128% → 30%
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
28.2%
Chris Evans run for 6 yds to the Mich 44Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 4
OWN 44
0
28.9%
Chris Evans run for no gain to the Mich 44Similar
Q1 3:10
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+5
29.2%
John O'Korn pass complete to Chris Evans for 5 yds to the Mich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
30.2%
Karan Higdon run for 3 yds to the OhSt 48Similar
Q1 1:58
2ND & 7
OPP 48
0
30.6%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Kekoa CrawfordSimilar
Q1 1:45
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+4
30.4%
John O'Korn pass complete to Eddie McDoom for 4 yds to the OhSt 44Similar
Q1 1:14
4TH & 3
OPP 44
0
30.4%
Brad Robbins punt for 27 yds, fair catch by K.J. Hill at the OhSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · -10 yds · 1:0070% → 67%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-1
30.2%
J.T. Barrett run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 16Similar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 11
OWN 16
0
30.9%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Terry McLaurinSimilar
Q1 0:30
3RD & 11
OWN 16
-5
31.3%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (Billy Price) to the OhSt 11Similar
Q1 0:20
3RD & 16
OWN 11
-4
31.2%
J.T. Barrett sacked by Chase Winovich for a loss of 4 yards to the OhSt 7Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 20
OWN 7
+42
32.8%
Drue Chrisman punt for 46 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for 42 yds to the OhSt 49 OHIO ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (-5 Yards) to the OhSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 7TD
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0333% → 40%
Q1 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
32.9%
Karan Higdon run for 3 yds to the OhSt 3Similar
Q2 14:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
39.5%
John O'Korn pass complete to Sean McKeon for 3 yds for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 8TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:4562% → 64%
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
37.6%
J.K. Dobbins run for 6 yds to the OhSt 31Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
37.9%
J.T. Barrett run for 2 yds to the OhSt 33Similar
Q2 13:50
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+6
38.7%
J.T. Barrett run for 6 yds to the OhSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+17
39.1%
J.K. Dobbins run for 17 yds to the Mich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
38.8%
J.T. Barrett run for 8 yds to the Mich 36Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 2
OPP 36
-1
39.4%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Parris Campbell for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 37Similar
Q2 11:45
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+5
40.3%
J.T. Barrett run for 5 yds to the Mich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
40.6%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Marcus BaughSimilar
Q2 11:02
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+10
41.0%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Holding (Khaleke Hudson) to the Mich 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
41.6%
J.T. Barrett run for 6 yds to the Mich 16Similar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 4
OPP 16
0
42.5%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to K.J. HillSimilar
Q2 9:57
3RD & 4
OPP 16
-5
43.5%
OHIO ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Mich 21Similar
Q2 9:50
3RD & 9
OPP 21
+21
36.5%
J.T. Barrett run for 21 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 2:3938% → 39%
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-7
38.4%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ben Bredeson) to the Mich 8Similar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 17
OWN 8
+22
38.5%
Karan Higdon run for 22 yds to the Mich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-10
40.2%
John O'Korn sacked by Sam Hubbard and Tyquan Lewis for a loss of 10 yards to the Mich 20Similar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 20
OWN 20
+10
39.6%
John O'Korn pass complete to Khalid Hill for 10 yds to the Mich 30Similar
Q2 7:17
3RD & 10
OWN 30
0
39.7%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Grant PerrySimilar
Q2 7:10
4TH & 10
OWN 30
-5
39.0%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Mich 25Similar
Q2 7:01
4TH & 15
OWN 25
+11
39.1%
Brad Robbins punt for 39 yds , K.J. Hill returns for 11 yds to the OhSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 10TD
3 plays · 53 yds · 0:5660% → 73%
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
40.4%
Mike Weber run for 2 yds to the OhSt 49Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+26
40.5%
J.T. Barrett run for 26 yds to the Mich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
26.8%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Marcus Baugh for 25 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:0833% → 33%
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
33.4%
Karan Higdon run for 4 yds to the Mich 29Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-7
34.0%
John O'Korn pass complete to Chris Evans for a loss of 7 yards to the Mich 22Similar
Q2 4:37
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
33.0%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Donovan Peoples-JonesSimilar
Q2 4:30
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+6
32.5%
Brad Robbins punt for 51 yds , K.J. Hill returns for 6 yds to the OhSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 2:1869% → 66%
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
30.7%
J.K. Dobbins run for 13 yds to the OhSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
29.5%
J.K. Dobbins run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 6
50
+1
29.2%
J.K. Dobbins run for 1 yd to the Mich 49Similar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 5
OPP 49
-17
29.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 17 yards to the OhSt 34 TEAM fumbled, recovered by OhSt J.T. BarrettSimilar
Q2 2:02
4TH & 22
OWN 34
0
34.3%
Drue Chrisman punt for 43 yds, downed at the Mich 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:3435% → 36%
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+10
35.1%
Chris Evans run for 10 yds to the Mich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
35.9%
John O'Korn pass complete to Sean McKeon for 3 yds to the Mich 36Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+1
37.2%
Karan Higdon run for 1 yd to the Mich 37Similar
Q2 0:29
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+5
36.2%
John O'Korn run for 5 yds to the Mich 42Similar
Q2 0:21
4TH & 1
OWN 42
0
36.4%
Brad Robbins punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
33.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2167% → 65%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
33.3%
J.T. Barrett run for no gain to the OhSt 25Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
33.9%
Mike Weber run for 9 yds to the OhSt 34Similar
Q3 13:55
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
33.1%
Mike Weber run for no gain to the OhSt 34Similar
Q3 13:29
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+34
34.9%
Drue Chrisman punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Donovan Peoples-Jones at the MICHIGAN 17 OHIO ST Penalty, Illegal Contact (Jeffrey Okudah) to the Mich 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:2138% → 38%
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
38.4%
Khalid Hill run for 3 yds to the Mich 35Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+6
38.8%
John O'Korn run for 6 yds to the Mich 41Similar
Q3 12:15
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+2
39.9%
Khalid Hill run for 2 yds to the Mich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
41.1%
Karan Higdon run for 2 yds to the Mich 45Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 8
OWN 45
0
41.8%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Drake HarrisSimilar
Q3 11:02
3RD & 8
OWN 45
0
39.6%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Donovan Peoples-JonesSimilar
Q3 10:54
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
38.4%
Brad Robbins punt for 41 yds, fair catch by K.J. Hill at the OhSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:0264% → 60%
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
36.4%
Mike Weber run for 5 yds to the OhSt 19Similar
Q3 10:23
2ND & 5
OWN 19
0
36.4%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Marcus BaughSimilar
Q3 10:10
3RD & 5
OWN 19
-6
37.7%
J.T. Barrett sacked by Rashan Gary for a loss of 6 yards to the OhSt 13Similar
Q3 9:43
4TH & 11
OWN 13
0
39.7%
Drue Chrisman punt for 38 yds, downed at the Mich 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18TD
6 plays · 51 yds · 2:2344% → 60%
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+43
43.5%
John O'Korn pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 43 yds to the OhSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
45.4%
Chris Evans run for 1 yd to the OhSt 7Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
45.9%
OHIO ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (Chris Worley) to the OhSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
46.3%
Karan Higdon run for 1 yd to the OhSt 2Similar
Q3 7:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
59.6%
Karan Higdon run for 2 yds for a TD, (Quinn Nordin PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 19TD
15 plays · 78 yds · 5:1648% → 69%
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
52.2%
J.T. Barrett run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 21Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 11
OWN 21
+10
53.3%
J.T. Barrett run for 10 yds to the OhSt 31Similar
Q3 5:50
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+4
51.9%
J.K. Dobbins run for 4 yds to the OhSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
52.1%
J.K. Dobbins run for 3 yds to the OhSt 38Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+2
51.1%
Dwayne Haskins run for 2 yds to the OhSt 40Similar
Q3 4:45
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+10
51.8%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Holding (Brandon Watson) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
50
+3
49.3%
J.K. Dobbins run for 3 yds to the Mich 47Similar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+4
49.7%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to J.K. Dobbins for 4 yds to the Mich 43Similar
Q3 3:46
3RD & 3
OPP 43
-5
50.3%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (Marcus Baugh) to the Mich 48Similar
Q3 3:31
3RD & 8
OPP 48
-5
52.2%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (Demetrius Knox) to the OhSt 47Similar
Q3 3:06
3RD & 13
OWN 47
+27
55.9%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Austin Mack for 27 yds to the Mich 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
48.0%
J.K. Dobbins run for 3 yds to the Mich 23Similar
Q3 2:01
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+22
48.6%
Dwayne Haskins run for 22 yds to the Mich 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
31.2%
J.K. Dobbins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 1:4039% → 36%
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
38.6%
Chris Evans run for 1 yd to the Mich 36Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
39.3%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Sean McKeonSimilar
Q3 0:30
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+9
37.6%
John O'Korn pass complete to Grant Perry for 9 yds to the Mich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
42.9%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Eddie McDoomSimilar
Q3 0:07
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-16
40.8%
John O'Korn sacked by Sam Hubbard for a loss of 16 yards to the Mich 29 John O'Korn fumbled, forced by Sam Hubbard, recovered by Mich Chris Evans , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 26
OWN 29
+14
36.2%
John O'Korn pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 14 yds to the Mich 43Similar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 12
OWN 43
0
36.4%
Brad Robbins punt for 31 yds, downed at the OhSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 21FG
10 plays · 47 yds · 4:1963% → 75%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
36.8%
Mike Weber run for no gain to the OhSt 26Similar
Q4 13:56
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+6
37.8%
Mike Weber run for 6 yds to the OhSt 32Similar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+5
37.0%
Mike Weber run for 5 yds to the OhSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
35.8%
Mike Weber run for 3 yds to the OhSt 40Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+3
34.2%
Mike Weber run for 3 yds to the OhSt 43Similar
Q4 11:55
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+29
34.2%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to K.J. Hill for 29 yds to the Mich 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
30.7%
Mike Weber run for 1 yd to the Mich 27Similar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 9
OPP 27
0
31.4%
Dwayne Haskins run for no gain to the Mich 27Similar
Q4 10:26
3RD & 9
OPP 27
0
32.7%
Dwayne Haskins pass incomplete to Binjimen VictorSimilar
Q4 10:21
4TH & 9
OPP 27
+44
24.8%
Sean Nuernberger 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 22DOWNS
9 plays · 36 yds · 3:1732% → 34%
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
32.0%
John O'Korn sacked by Michael Hill for a loss of 6 yards to the Mich 19Similar
Q4 9:29
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+24
31.0%
John O'Korn pass complete to Eddie McDoom for 24 yds to the Mich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
35.9%
Karan Higdon run for 9 yds to the OhSt 48Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+3
38.0%
Chris Evans run for 3 yds to the OhSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
38.3%
Karan Higdon run for 9 yds to the OhSt 36Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 1
OPP 36
-3
38.5%
John O'Korn run for a loss of 3 yards to the OhSt 39Similar
Q4 6:58
3RD & 4
OPP 39
0
36.8%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Grant PerrySimilar
Q4 6:53
4TH & 4
OPP 39
0
33.7%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Chris EvansSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 23MISSED FG
7 plays · 34 yds · 3:5380% → 85%
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
19.8%
J.K. Dobbins run for no gain to the OhSt 39Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+3
20.2%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to J.K. Dobbins for 3 yds to the OhSt 42Similar
Q4 5:15
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+24
20.0%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to K.J. Hill for 24 yds to the Mich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
15.3%
J.K. Dobbins run for 2 yds to the Mich 32Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+7
15.0%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Parris Campbell for 7 yds to the Mich 25Similar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 1
OPP 25
-2
14.7%
Mike Weber run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 27Similar
Q4 2:47
4TH & 3
OPP 27
+43
15.2%
Sean Nuernberger 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 24INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+26
34.0%
John O'Korn pass intercepted. Jordan Fuller return for 11 yds to the OhSt 38 OHIO ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Sam Hubbard) to the OhSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 25TD
4 plays · 66 yds · 0:3186% → 97%
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+35
14.0%
J.K. Dobbins run for 35 yds to the Mich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
8.0%
J.K. Dobbins run for 6 yds to the Mich 25Similar
Q4 1:44
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+25
3.5%
Mike Weber run for 25 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 26END OF GAME
12 plays · 47 yds · 1:324% → 4%
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+14
3.5%
Chris Evans run for 14 yds to the Mich 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
3.5%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Eddie McDoomSimilar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-13
3.4%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Crackback (Chris Evans) to the Mich 13Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 23
OWN 13
+10
3.4%
John O'Korn pass complete to Chris Evans for 10 yds to the Mich 23Similar
Q4 0:37
3RD & 13
OWN 36
+28
3.4%
John O'Korn pass complete to Chris Evans for 13 yds to the OhSt 36 for a 1ST down OHIO ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Jalyn Holmes) to the OhSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
4.3%
John O'Korn pass complete to Karan Higdon for 9 yds to the OhSt 40Similar
Q4 0:16
2ND & 1
OPP 40
-5
4.7%
John O'Korn sacked by Nick Bosa for a loss of 5 yards to the OhSt 45Similar
Q4 0:11
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+10
3.3%
John O'Korn pass complete to Drake Harris for 10 yds to the OhSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-6
4.1%
John O'Korn sacked by Sam Hubbard for a loss of 6 yards to the OhSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:34
J.K. Dobbins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)
-17.4
TD · Q2 5:54
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Marcus Baugh for 25 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)
-13.8
TD · Q3 7:07
Karan Higdon run for 2 yds for a TD, (Quinn Nordin PAT BLOCKED)
+13.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com