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PSU

Penn State 66 at Maryland 3

MD
2017 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2017 · SECU Stadium
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Win probability · MD
modelMD aheadPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMD scorePSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:37 · Wade Lees punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mary 33 , DeAndre Thompkins returns for 20 yds to the Mary 37 MARYLAND Penalty, illegal block (-15 Yards) to the Mary 33
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+59.0+29.50−29.5−59.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 174Pregame prior−8.7Home team on offense−56.1Score differential−41.9Garbage-time factor−16.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−8.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−10.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 10:17: Tommy Stevens run for 21 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK) — MD win probability +0.9 pts (now 7%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 3:10: Trace McSorley run for 5 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK) — PSU win probability +0.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 14:52: Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 2 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK) — PSU win probability +2.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 2:24: Tyler Davis 30 yd FG GOOD — PSU win probability +0.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 9:18: Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK) — PSU win probability +0.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MD made the numbers' call on 10 of 12PSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 10:14MD 4th & 13 at MD 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.0%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:05PSU 4th & 7 at PSU 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.3%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:01MD 4th & 26 at MD 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%−0.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:10MD 4th & 1 at MD 44, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.3%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:44MD 4th & 10 at PSU 29, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.5%
    58% to make
    Punt
    3.8%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:44PSU 4th & 17 at PSU 42, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:51MD 4th & 4 at PSU 31, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    4.2%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    4.2%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:24PSU 4th & 1 at MD 12, up 28
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.3%−0.1
    86% to make
    Punt
    96.0%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:52MD 4th & 4 at MD 28, down 31
    Close callPunted · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:41PSU 4th & 5 at PSU 33, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.0%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 14:55MD 4th & 1 at PSU 27, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    2.1%−0.2
    62% to make
    Punt
    1.7%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:18PSU 4th & 1 at MD 1, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    98.4%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    97.9%−0.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:06MD 4th & 3 at MD 25, down 45
    Close callPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:01MD 4th & 9 at PSU 24, down 52
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.2%
    68% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00PSU 4th & 4 at PSU 25, up 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:25MD 4th & 12 at MD 21, down 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:37MD 4th & 11 at MD 17, down 56
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:17MD 4th & 8 at MD 17, down 63
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 10:17PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:10PSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:52PSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:33PSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:18PSU Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:12PSU Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:37PSU Touchdown, up 51 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:44PSU Touchdown, up 55 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:24PSU Touchdown, up 62 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PSUDrive 1TD
12 plays · 91 yds · 4:4394% → 93%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
5.8%
Saquon Barkley run for 5 yds to the PnSt 14Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 14
+10
5.8%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 10 yds to the PnSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
5.8%
Saquon Barkley run for 5 yds to the PnSt 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+14
5.8%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 14 yds to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
5.8%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 2 yds to the PnSt 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 45
0
5.8%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Juwan JohnsonSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+22
5.8%
Trace McSorley run for 22 yds to the Mary 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
5.8%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+5
5.8%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 5 yds to the Mary 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+7
5.8%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 7 yds to the Mary 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
6.7%
Tommy Stevens run for 21 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
6.9%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D.J. Moore for 3 yds to the Mary 29Similar
Q1 10:14
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+5
6.9%
Ty Johnson run for 5 yds to the Mary 34Similar
Q1 10:14
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+5
6.9%
Bortenschlager pass incomplete to Davenport, J., PENALTY PSU offside (Miller, Shareef) 5 yards to the UMD39, 1ST DOWN UMD, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-6
6.9%
D.J. Moore pass complete to Jahrvis Davenport for a loss of 6 yards to the Mary 33Similar
Q1 10:14
2ND & 16
OWN 33
0
6.8%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to Taivon Jacobs, broken up by Parker CothrenSimilar
Q1 10:14
3RD & 16
OWN 33
-1
6.8%
Max Bortenschlager sacked by Kevin Givens for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 36 Max Bortenschlager fumbled, recovered by Mary Max Bortenschlager , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 10:14
4TH & 13
OWN 36
0
6.8%
Wade Lees punt for 30 yds, fair catch by DeAndre Thompkins at the PnSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
7.2%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Saquon BarkleySimilar
Q1 8:05
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+3
7.3%
Trace McSorley run for 3 yds to the PnSt 37Similar
Q1 8:05
3RD & 7
OWN 37
0
7.3%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Mike GesickiSimilar
Q1 8:05
4TH & 7
OWN 37
+9
7.4%
Blake Gillikin punt for 52 yds , D.J. Moore returns for 9 yds to the Mary 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
7.6%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D.J. Moore for 10 yds to the Mary 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
7.6%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to D.J. MooreSimilar
Q1 7:01
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+3
7.6%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 3 yds to the Mary 33Similar
Q1 7:01
3RD & 7
OWN 33
-5
7.6%
Max Bortenschlager sacked by Jason Cabinda for a loss of 5 yards to the Mary 27 Max Bortenschlager fumbled, recovered by Mary Sean Christie , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 7:01
4TH & 13
OWN 27
-13
7.5%
MARYLAND Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-13 Yards) to the Mary 14Similar
Q1 7:01
4TH & 26
OWN 14
0
7.5%
Wade Lees punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mary 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 5TD
5 plays · 41 yds · 2:2092% → 93%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
7.7%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 5 yds to the Mary 36Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+8
7.7%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 8 yds to the Mary 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
7.6%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 7 yds to the Mary 21Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+16
7.6%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DeAndre Thompkins for 16 yds to the Mary 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
6.9%
Trace McSorley run for 5 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 6DOWNS
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
7.2%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Taivon Jacobs for 10 yds to the Mary 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
7.2%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D.J. Moore for 9 yds to the Mary 44Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 1
OWN 44
0
7.4%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to Jermaine Carter Jr.Similar
Q1 3:10
3RD & 1
OWN 44
0
7.4%
Ty Johnson run for no gain to the Mary 44Similar
Q1 3:10
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
7.4%
Jake Funk run for no gain to the Mary 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7TD
6 plays · 44 yds · 1:5393% → 95%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
7.1%
Trace McSorley run for 9 yds to the Mary 35Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+19
7.0%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saeed Blacknall for 19 yds to the Mary 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+9
7.0%
Saquon Barkley run for 9 yds to the Mary 7Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 1
OPP 7
+5
7.0%
Saquon Barkley run for 5 yds to the Mary 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
7.2%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Mike GesickiSimilar
Q2 14:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
4.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 2 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 8FUMBLE
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
5.5%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to Jahrvis DavenportSimilar
Q2 14:46
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+2
5.5%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 2 yds to the Mary 29Similar
Q2 14:46
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+8
5.4%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Taivon Jacobs for 8 yds to the Mary 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
5.6%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to D.J. MooreSimilar
Q2 14:46
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+9
5.5%
Ty Johnson run for 9 yds to the Mary 46Similar
Q2 14:46
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+6
5.8%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Jahrvis Davenport for 6 yds Jahrvis Davenport fumbled, forced by Tariq Castro-Fields, recovered by PnSt Robert WindsorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 9TD
5 plays · 52 yds · 1:3595% → 95%
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
4.9%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the PnSt 49Similar
Q2 13:08
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+32
4.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 32 yds to the Mary 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
4.8%
Saquon Barkley run for 5 yds to the Mary 14Similar
Q2 13:08
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+5
4.8%
Barkley, Saquon rush for 4 yards to the UMD10 (Brooks, A.), PENALTY UMD substitution infraction (Rogers, L.) 5 yards to the UMD9, 1ST DOWN PSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
4.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 9 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 10MISSED FG
7 plays · 48 yds · 0:465% → 5%
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+32
4.8%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D.J. Moore for 32 yds to the PnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+16
5.3%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Jahrvis Davenport for 16 yds to the PnSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
5.4%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to Taivon JacobsSimilar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
5.3%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to Jahrvis DavenportSimilar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 10
OPP 29
0
5.1%
Max Bortenschlager pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:44
4TH & 10
OPP 29
+47
5.0%
Henry Darmstadter 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
5.2%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Saeed Blacknall, broken up by Darnell Savage Jr.Similar
Q2 10:44
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+20
5.2%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 20 yds to the PnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
5.0%
Saquon Barkley run for 3 yds to the Mary 48Similar
Q2 10:44
2ND & 7
OPP 48
-10
5.0%
Trace McSorley sacked by Antoine Brooks Jr. for a loss of 10 yards to the PnSt 42Similar
Q2 10:44
3RD & 17
OWN 42
0
5.2%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Saquon BarkleySimilar
Q2 10:44
4TH & 17
OWN 42
0
5.6%
Blake Gillikin punt for 40 yds, downed at the Mary 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 12DOWNS
5 plays · 49 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+45
4.5%
Ty Johnson run for 45 yds to the PnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
5.1%
Ty Johnson run for no gain to the PnSt 37Similar
Q2 8:51
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+2
5.0%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Lorenzo Harrison III for 2 yds to the PnSt 35Similar
Q2 8:51
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+4
5.0%
Max Bortenschlager run for 4 yds to the PnSt 31Similar
Q2 8:51
4TH & 4
OPP 31
-2
4.8%
Max Bortenschlager sacked by Grant Haley for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 13FG
11 plays · 55 yds · 4:3195% → 96%
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
5.2%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+4
5.2%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DeAndre Thompkins for 4 yds to the PnSt 37Similar
Q2 6:12
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+28
5.0%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DeAndre Thompkins for 28 yds to the Mary 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
4.6%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the Mary 34Similar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+4
4.6%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 4 yds to the Mary 30Similar
Q2 6:12
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+9
4.7%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Brandon Polk for 9 yds to the Mary 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
4.5%
Trace McSorley run for 4 yds to the Mary 17Similar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+3
4.5%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 3 yds to the Mary 14Similar
Q2 6:12
3RD & 3
OPP 14
+2
4.2%
Saquon Barkley run for 2 yds to the Mary 12Similar
Q2 2:24
4TH & 1
OPP 12
+30
3.7%
Tyler Davis 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:272% → 2%
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
2.4%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D.J. Moore for 2 yds to the Mary 24Similar
Q2 2:19
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+4
2.3%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Lorenzo Harrison III for 4 yds to the Mary 28Similar
Q2 1:52
3RD & 4
OWN 28
0
2.5%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to D.J. Moore, broken up by Grant HaleySimilar
Q2 1:52
4TH & 4
OWN 28
0
2.4%
Wade Lees punt for 44 yds, fair catch by DeAndre Thompkins at the PnSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0098% → 97%
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
2.4%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 5 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 5
OWN 33
0
2.4%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Juwan Johnson, broken up by JC JacksonSimilar
Q2 1:41
3RD & 5
OWN 33
0
2.5%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Saquon BarkleySimilar
Q2 1:41
4TH & 5
OWN 33
0
2.6%
Blake Gillikin punt for 37 yds, fair catch by D.J. Moore at the Mary 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 16END OF HALF
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
2.0%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Taivon Jacobs for 8 yds to the Mary 38Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+8
2.0%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D.J. Moore for 8 yds to the Mary 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
2.1%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to Taivon JacobsSimilar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
2.0%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to D.J. MooreSimilar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+4
2.0%
Max Bortenschlager run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 17DOWNS
6 plays · 38 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+29
2.8%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D.J. Moore for 29 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
3.1%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 1 yd to the PnSt 35Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 9
OPP 35
0
3.1%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to Jahrvis DavenportSimilar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 9
OPP 35
+8
3.0%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Lorenzo Harrison III for 8 yds to the PnSt 27Similar
Q3 14:55
4TH & 1
OPP 27
0
3.1%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for no gain to the PnSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 18TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 3:4698% → 99%
Q3 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
2.2%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Mike GesickiSimilar
Q3 13:04
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+8
2.2%
Saquon Barkley run for 8 yds to the PnSt 35Similar
Q3 13:04
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+17
2.0%
Saquon Barkley run for 17 yds to the Mary 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+19
2.1%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 19 yds to the Mary 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
2.0%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 9 yds to the Mary 20Similar
Q3 13:04
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+11
1.8%
Miles Sanders run for 11 yds to the Mary 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
2.0%
Miles Sanders run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 10Similar
Q3 13:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
2.0%
Saquon Barkley run for 7 yds to the Mary 3Similar
Q3 13:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
1.8%
Saquon Barkley run for 2 yds to the Mary 1Similar
Q3 9:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
1.3%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 20TD
4 plays · 13 yds · 1:5999% → 99%
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
0.8%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Tommy Stevens for 4 yds to the Mary 9Similar
Q3 9:11
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+5
0.8%
Saquon Barkley run for 5 yds to the Mary 4Similar
Q3 9:11
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+3
0.8%
Trace McSorley run for 3 yds to the Mary 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.7%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
0.5%
Ty Johnson run for 5 yds to the Mary 23Similar
Q3 7:06
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+2
0.6%
Ty Johnson run for 2 yds to the Mary 25Similar
Q3 7:06
3RD & 3
OWN 25
0
0.5%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to Jahrvis DavenportSimilar
Q3 7:06
4TH & 3
OWN 25
0
0.5%
Wade Lees punt for 43 yds, fair catch by DeAndre Thompkins at the PnSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 22TD
10 plays · 68 yds · 3:0999% → 100%
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
0.6%
Miles Sanders run for 3 yds to the PnSt 35Similar
Q3 5:46
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+15
0.6%
Stevens, Tommy pass incomplete to Johnson, Juwan (Jackson, J.), PENALTY UMD pass interference (Jackson, J.) 15 yards to the 50 yardline, 1ST DOWN PSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
50
+14
0.6%
Tommy Stevens run for 14 yds to the Mary 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
0.6%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Miles Sanders for 3 yds to the Mary 33Similar
Q3 5:46
2ND & 7
OPP 33
0
0.6%
Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Miles SandersSimilar
Q3 5:46
3RD & 7
OPP 33
-5
0.6%
PENN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Mary 38Similar
Q3 5:46
3RD & 12
OPP 38
+12
0.6%
Tommy Stevens run for 12 yds to the Mary 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+13
0.6%
MARYLAND Penalty, personal foul (Jermaine Carter Jr.) to the Mary 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+9
0.6%
Tommy Stevens run for 9 yds to the Mary 4Similar
Q3 2:37
2ND & 1
OPP 4
+4
0.4%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Tom Pancoast for 4 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 23FG
7 plays · 55 yds · 1:280% → 0%
Q3 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
0.3%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to Jahrvis DavenportSimilar
Q3 2:29
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+54
0.2%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 54 yds to the PnSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
0.3%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to Jahrvis DavenportSimilar
Q3 2:29
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+1
0.3%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 1 yd to the PnSt 24Similar
Q3 2:29
3RD & 9
OPP 24
0
0.3%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to D.J. MooreSimilar
Q3 1:01
4TH & 9
OPP 24
+42
0.2%
Henry Darmstadter 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:5799% → 100%
Q3 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+5
0.6%
Tommy Stevens run for 5 yds to the PnSt 10Similar
Q3 0:57
2ND & 5
OWN 10
0
0.5%
Miles Sanders run for no gain to the PnSt 10Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 10
+9
0.5%
Tommy Stevens run for 9 yds to the PnSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
0.4%
Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Brandon Polk, broken up by Darnell Savage Jr.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
0.4%
Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Irvin CharlesSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 19
+6
0.4%
Tommy Stevens run for 6 yds to the PnSt 25Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 25
+1
0.5%
Blake Gillikin punt for 52 yds , D.J. Moore returns for 1 yd to the Mary 26 MARYLAND Penalty, illegal block (Taivon Jacobs) to the Mary 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+7
0.2%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D.J. Moore for 7 yds to the Mary 19Similar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 3
OWN 19
+4
0.2%
Ty Johnson run for 4 yds to the Mary 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
0.2%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Michael Cornwell for 5 yds to the Mary 28Similar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 5
OWN 28
-14
0.2%
MARYLAND Penalty, personal foul (Derwin Gray) to the Mary 14Similar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 19
OWN 14
0
0.2%
Max Bortenschlager sacked by Daniel Joseph for 0 yards to the Mary 14Similar
Q4 13:25
3RD & 19
OWN 14
+7
0.2%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Taivon Jacobs for 7 yds to the Mary 21Similar
Q4 13:25
4TH & 12
OWN 21
0
0.2%
Wade Lees punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 26TD
8 plays · 57 yds · 3:05100% → 100%
Q4 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-4
0.3%
Miles Sanders run for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 39Similar
Q4 10:49
2ND & 14
OWN 39
+13
0.3%
Tommy Stevens run for 13 yds to the Mary 48Similar
Q4 10:49
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+2
0.3%
Miles Sanders run for 2 yds to the Mary 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
0.3%
Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Saeed BlacknallSimilar
Q4 10:49
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+8
0.3%
Tommy Stevens run for 8 yds to the Mary 38Similar
Q4 10:49
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+31
0.3%
Miles Sanders run for 31 yds to the Mary 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
0.2%
MARYLAND Penalty, face mask (4 yards) (Darnell Savage Jr.) to the Mary 3Similar
Q4 7:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
0.2%
Tommy Stevens run for 3 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
0.1%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Jahrvis Davenport for 5 yds to the Mary 23Similar
Q4 7:37
2ND & 5
OWN 23
-1
0.1%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 22Similar
Q4 7:37
3RD & 6
OWN 22
-5
0.1%
Max Bortenschlager sacked by Ellison Jordan and Daniel Joseph for a loss of 5 yards to the Mary 17Similar
Q4 7:37
4TH & 11
OWN 17
+20
0.1%
Wade Lees punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mary 33 , DeAndre Thompkins returns for 20 yds to the Mary 37 MARYLAND Penalty, illegal block (-15 Yards) to the Mary 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 28TD
6 plays · 48 yds · 3:18100% → 100%
Q4 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
0.2%
Mark Allen run for 3 yds to the Mary 30Similar
Q4 5:42
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+5
0.2%
Mark Allen run for 5 yds to the Mary 25Similar
Q4 5:42
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+4
0.2%
Mark Allen run for 4 yds to the Mary 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
0.2%
Mark Allen run for 8 yds to the Mary 13Similar
Q4 5:42
2ND & 2
OPP 13
+7
0.2%
Tommy Stevens run for 7 yds to the Mary 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
0.1%
Tommy Stevens run for 6 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 29PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
0.1%
Javon Leake run for no gain to the Mary 15Similar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 10
OWN 15
-4
0.1%
Javon Leake run for a loss of 4 yards to the Mary 11Similar
Q4 2:17
3RD & 14
OWN 11
+6
0.1%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Tahj Capehart for 6 yds to the Mary 17Similar
Q4 2:17
4TH & 8
OWN 17
+5
0.1%
Wade Lees punt for 49 yds , DeAndre Thompkins returns for 5 yds to the PnSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 30END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 38Similar
Q4 0:51
2ND & 11
OWN 38
-1
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 14:52
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 2 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)
-2.2
TD · Q1 10:17
Tommy Stevens run for 21 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)
+0.9
TD · Q1 3:10
Trace McSorley run for 5 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)
-0.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com