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NU

Northwestern 42 at Illinois 7

ILL
2017 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2017 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
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Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadNU aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scoreNU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:01 · Chase McLaughlin 52 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 92Pregame prior−20.4Home team on offense−5.8Score differential−2.5Garbage-time factor−3.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 8:38: Cam Thomas run for 23 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK) — ILL win probability +4.1 pts (now 18%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:35: Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 11 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK) — NU win probability +3.7 pts (now 78%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 8:03: Jelani Roberts run for 5 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK) — NU win probability +6.3 pts (now 83%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:47: Justin Jackson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK) — NU win probability +6.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:05: Jeremy Larkin run for 4 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK) — NU win probability +1.4 pts (now 100%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 8 of 11NU made the numbers' call on 3 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00NU 4th & 4 at NU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.6%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:13ILL 4th & 5 at ILL 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.1%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.5%
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00NU 4th & 3 at NU 40, down 7
    Close callPunted · 72.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.4%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:18ILL 4th & 8 at ILL 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:28ILL 4th & 2 at NU 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    26.2%−1.0
    28% to make
    Punt
    26.5%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:55ILL 4th & 18 at ILL 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%−1.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:03NU 4th & 8 at NU 13, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:18ILL 4th & 2 at ILL 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.4%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:19NU 4th & 6 at NU 46, up 7
    Close callPunted · 80.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.9%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:06ILL 4th & 2 at ILL 48, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.2%−1.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:01ILL 4th & 7 at NU 34, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.5%−0.3
    47% to make
    Punt
    21.6%−1.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:01NU 4th & 2 at NU 43, up 7
    Close callPunted · 79.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.4%−0.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:09ILL 4th & 8 at ILL 38, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.2%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.7%
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:40ILL 4th & 5 at ILL 46, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.2%
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:39NU 4th & 16 at NU 44, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.8%−1.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.9%
    average punt
  16. Q3 3:12NU 4th & 7 at ILL 28, up 21
    Close callWent for it · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.9%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    97.0%
    60% to make
    Punt
    95.5%−1.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:59ILL 4th & 4 at ILL 34, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:56ILL 4th & 10 at ILL 41, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:08NU 4th & 2 at NU 36, up 35
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ILL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1NU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 8:38ILL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:35NU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:03NU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:47NU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:05NU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:01NU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
13.6%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Nwest 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
13.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 6 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
13.6%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
13.6%
Hunter Niswander punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Illin 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 2TD
12 plays · 69 yds · 5:1414% → 18%
Q1 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
14.1%
Cam Thomas run for 7 yds to the Illin 38Similar
Q1 13:52
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+6
14.1%
Cam Thomas pass complete to Caleb Reams for 6 yds to the Illin 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
14.1%
Dre Brown run for 7 yds to the Nwest 49Similar
Q1 13:52
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+2
14.2%
Dre Brown run for 2 yds to the Nwest 47Similar
Q1 13:52
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+2
14.2%
Dre Brown run for 2 yds to the Nwest 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
14.2%
Cam Thomas pass incomplete to Caleb Reams, broken up by Jordan ThompsonSimilar
Q1 13:52
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+2
14.2%
Cam Thomas run for 2 yds to the Nwest 43Similar
Q1 13:52
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+12
14.1%
Cam Thomas run for 12 yds to the Nwest 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
14.2%
Dre Brown run for no gain to the Nwest 31Similar
Q1 13:52
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+8
14.2%
Dre Brown run for 18 yds to the Nwest 13 ILLINOIS Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Nwest 23Similar
Q1 13:52
2ND & 2
OPP 23
0
14.2%
Cam Thomas run for no gain to the Nwest 23Similar
Q1 8:38
3RD & 2
OPP 23
+23
18.3%
Cam Thomas run for 23 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 3INT
15 plays · 71 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
18.0%
Jackson, Justin rush for no gain to the NU25 (Odenigbo,Tito), PENALTY ILL offside (Watson,Tre) 5 yards to the NU30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:38
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+12
17.8%
Clayton Thorson run for 12 yds to the Nwest 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
17.8%
Justin Jackson run for 7 yds to the Nwest 49Similar
Q1 8:38
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+8
17.6%
Jeremy Larkin run for 8 yds to the Illin 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
17.6%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:38
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+1
17.6%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Illin 42Similar
Q1 8:38
3RD & 9
OPP 42
+12
17.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 12 yds to the Illin 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
17.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 2 yds to the Illin 28Similar
Q1 8:38
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+7
17.3%
Justin Jackson run for 7 yds to the Illin 21Similar
Q1 8:38
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+3
17.5%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Illin 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+14
17.3%
Jelani Roberts run for 14 yds to the Illin 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
17.3%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Illin 4Similar
Q1 8:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
17.3%
Clayton Thorson run for no gain to the Illin 4Similar
Q1 8:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+15
17.6%
Clayton Thorson pass intercepted Bennett Williams return for 15 yds to the Illin 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0023% → 22%
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
22.7%
Cam Thomas sacked by Nate Hall for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 15Similar
Q1 3:13
2ND & 11
OWN 15
+1
22.6%
Dre Brown run for 1 yd to the Illin 16Similar
Q1 3:13
3RD & 10
OWN 16
+5
22.3%
Cam Thomas pass complete to Malik Turner for 5 yds to the Illin 21Similar
Q1 3:13
4TH & 5
OWN 21
0
22.0%
Blake Hayes punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1676% → 75%
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
23.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 32Similar
Q1 1:16
2ND & 11
OWN 32
0
24.0%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Nwest 32Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 32
+8
25.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 8 yds to the Nwest 40Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 40
0
25.3%
Hunter Niswander punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Nate Hobbs at the Illin 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0026% → 25%
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-4
26.1%
ILLINOIS Penalty, false start (-4 Yards) to the Illin 4Similar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 14
OWN 4
+10
26.1%
Cam Thomas run for 10 yds to the Illin 14Similar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 4
OWN 14
+2
26.2%
Dre Brown run for 2 yds to the Illin 16Similar
Q2 14:18
3RD & 2
OWN 16
-6
25.7%
Cam Thomas run for a loss of 6 yards to the Illin 10Similar
Q2 14:18
4TH & 8
OWN 10
0
25.2%
Blake Hayes punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 7TD
6 plays · 51 yds · 1:5974% → 78%
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
26.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 12 yds to the Illin 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
26.1%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Illin 36Similar
Q2 12:34
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+14
26.0%
Justin Jackson run for 14 yds to the Illin 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
25.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 9 yds to the Illin 13Similar
Q2 12:34
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+2
25.3%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Illin 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
21.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 11 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 8DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0026% → 25%
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
26.0%
Cam Thomas pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 4 yds to the Nwest 47Similar
Q2 10:28
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+5
26.3%
Cam Thomas run for 5 yds to the Nwest 42Similar
Q2 10:28
3RD & 1
OPP 42
-1
26.0%
Dre Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 43Similar
Q2 10:28
4TH & 2
OPP 43
+1
25.2%
Cam Thomas run for 1 yd to the Nwest 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 9TD
2 plays · 57 yds · 0:2977% → 83%
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+52
23.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 52 yds to the Illin 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
17.0%
Jelani Roberts run for 5 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:0020% → 18%
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
20.4%
Cam Thomas pass incomplete to Ricky SmallingSimilar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
20.1%
Cam Thomas pass incomplete to Ricky SmallingSimilar
Q2 7:55
3RD & 10
OPP 49
-8
19.3%
Cam Thomas sacked by Nate Hall and Sam Miller for a loss of 8 yards to the Illin 43Similar
Q2 7:55
4TH & 18
OWN 43
0
18.1%
Blake Hayes punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0081% → 80%
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
18.7%
Jeremy Larkin run for 2 yds to the Nwest 13Similar
Q2 7:03
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+6
18.9%
Jeremy Larkin run for 6 yds to the Nwest 19Similar
Q2 7:03
3RD & 2
OWN 19
-6
18.9%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Bobby Roundtree for a loss of 6 yards to the Nwest 13Similar
Q2 7:03
4TH & 8
OWN 13
0
19.7%
Hunter Niswander punt for 61 yds , Nate Hobbs returns for no gain to the Illin 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0020% → 19%
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
19.6%
Cam Thomas run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 24Similar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 12
OWN 24
+11
19.4%
Cam Thomas pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 11 yds to the Illin 35Similar
Q2 5:18
3RD & 1
OWN 35
-1
20.0%
Cam Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 34Similar
Q2 5:18
4TH & 2
OWN 34
0
19.1%
Blake Hayes punt for 42 yds , Riley Lees returns for no gain to the Nwest 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 22 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q2 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+18
18.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 3 yds to the Nwest 27 for a 1ST down ILLINOIS Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Nwest 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
17.7%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn NagelSimilar
Q2 3:19
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+4
18.0%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 46Similar
Q2 3:19
3RD & 6
OWN 46
0
17.9%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn Nagel, broken up by Chris JamesSimilar
Q2 3:19
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
18.8%
Hunter Niswander punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 28 yds · 0:0020% → 21%
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+20
20.1%
Cam Thomas pass complete to Louis Dorsey for 20 yds to the Illin 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
21.4%
Cam Thomas pass complete to Malik Turner for 6 yds to the Illin 46Similar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+2
21.9%
Dre Brown run for 2 yds to the Illin 48Similar
Q2 2:06
3RD & 2
OWN 48
0
21.8%
Cam Thomas pass incomplete to Caleb Reams, broken up by Paddy FisherSimilar
Q2 2:06
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
20.9%
Blake Hayes punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+10
19.4%
Justin Jackson run for 10 yds to the Nwest 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-2
19.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 16MISSED FG
9 plays · 33 yds · 2:5621% → 22%
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
20.8%
Dre Brown run for 15 yds to the Illin 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
22.4%
Cam Thomas run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 14:57
2ND & 8
50
0
22.7%
Dre Brown run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 14:57
3RD & 8
50
+13
21.8%
Cam Thomas pass complete to Malik Turner for 13 yds to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
23.0%
Dre Brown run for 3 yds to the Nwest 34Similar
Q3 14:57
2ND & 7
OPP 34
0
23.9%
Cam Thomas pass incomplete to Ricky SmallingSimilar
Q3 14:57
3RD & 7
OPP 34
0
22.7%
Cam Thomas pass incomplete to Louis DorseySimilar
Q3 12:01
4TH & 7
OPP 34
+52
21.6%
Chase McLaughlin 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
19.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Justin JacksonSimilar
Q3 12:01
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+8
19.7%
Justin Jackson run for 8 yds to the Nwest 43Similar
Q3 12:01
3RD & 2
OWN 43
0
18.7%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Macan Wilson, broken up by Tymir OliverSimilar
Q3 12:01
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
19.4%
Hunter Niswander punt for 47 yds , Nate Hobbs returns for no gain to the Illin 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 18FUMBLE TD
3 plays · -7 yds · 0:5221% → 12%
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
21.0%
Cam Thomas pass incomplete to Malik Turner, broken up by Marcus McShepardSimilar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 10
OWN 10
-1
20.9%
Christian Bobak run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 9Similar
Q3 10:13
3RD & 11
OWN 9
+3
12.2%
Cam Thomas sacked by Joe Gaziano for a loss of 6 yards Cam Thomas fumbled, recovered by Nwest Sam Miller , return for 0 yards , return for 3 yds, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
12.9%
Cam Thomas pass complete to Reggie Corbin for 2 yds to the Illin 38Similar
Q3 10:09
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
13.2%
Cam Thomas pass incomplete to Dre BrownSimilar
Q3 10:09
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
12.7%
Cam Thomas pass incomplete to Malik Turner, broken up by Alex MillerSimilar
Q3 10:09
4TH & 8
OWN 38
+10
12.4%
Blake Hayes punt for 52 yds , Riley Lees returns for 10 yds to the Nwest 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 20TD
2 plays · 80 yds · 0:1789% → 96%
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+79
10.9%
Justin Jackson run for 79 yds to the Illin 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
4.2%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:006% → 7%
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+13
6.1%
Cam Thomas pass complete to Malik Turner for 13 yds to the Illin 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
6.6%
Cam Thomas pass complete to Dre Brown for 8 yds to the Illin 49Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 2
OWN 49
-3
6.9%
Cam Thomas sacked by Jordan Thompson and Tyler Lancaster for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 46Similar
Q3 8:40
3RD & 5
OWN 46
0
6.5%
Cam Thomas pass incomplete to Ricky SmallingSimilar
Q3 8:40
4TH & 5
OWN 46
0
6.5%
Blake Hayes punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 33 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+10
3.4%
Jeremy Larkin run for 10 yds to the Nwest 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+29
3.3%
Jeremy Larkin run for 29 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
50
+3
3.2%
Jeremy Larkin run for 3 yds to the Illin 47Similar
Q3 6:39
2ND & 7
OPP 47
0
3.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Bennett SkowronekSimilar
Q3 6:39
3RD & 7
OPP 47
-9
3.2%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Tymir Oliver for a loss of 9 yards to the Nwest 44Similar
Q3 6:39
4TH & 16
OWN 44
0
3.5%
Hunter Niswander punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Nate Hobbs at the Illin 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 23INT
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
4.0%
Cam Thomas pass complete to Caleb Reams for 8 yds to the Illin 26Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 2
OWN 26
+4
4.2%
Cam Thomas run for 4 yds to the Illin 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
4.1%
Cam Thomas pass incomplete to Ricky SmallingSimilar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+4
4.0%
Cam Thomas pass intercepted Paddy Fisher return for 4 yds to the Illin 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 24TD
13 plays · 31 yds · 6:0798% → 100%
Q3 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
2.2%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Illin 30Similar
Q3 3:12
2ND & 9
OPP 30
0
2.2%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Illin 30Similar
Q3 3:12
3RD & 9
OPP 30
+2
2.3%
Clayton Thorson run for 2 yds to the Illin 28Similar
Q3 3:12
4TH & 7
OPP 28
+10
2.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 10 yds to the Illin 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-10
2.2%
Jackson, Justin rush for 1 yard to the ILL17 (Phillips,D.;Williams,B.), PENALTY NU holding (Hance, Blake) 10 yards to the ILL28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:12
1ST & 20
OPP 28
+4
2.2%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Illin 24Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 16
OPP 24
+11
1.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Jeremy Larkin for 11 yds to the Illin 13Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 13
+5
1.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 5 yds to the Illin 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 0
OPP 8
-5
1.8%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Illin 13Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 13
+4
1.9%
Jeremy Larkin run for 4 yds to the Illin 9Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
1.8%
Jeremy Larkin run for 5 yds to the Illin 4Similar
Q4 12:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
0.4%
Jeremy Larkin run for 4 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
Q4 12:05
1ST & 0
OPP 0
0
0.3%
ILLINOIS Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the Illin 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
0.4%
Cam Thomas pass complete to Louis Dorsey for 9 yds to the Illin 37Similar
Q4 11:59
2ND & 1
OWN 37
0
0.4%
Cam Thomas pass incomplete to Bobby WalkerSimilar
Q4 11:59
3RD & 1
OWN 37
-3
0.4%
Cam Thomas run for 7 yds to the Illin 44 ILLINOIS Penalty, Offensive holding (Malik Turner) to the Illin 34Similar
Q4 11:59
3RD & 4
OWN 34
0
0.4%
Cam Thomas pass incomplete to Louis DorseySimilar
Q4 11:59
4TH & 4
OWN 34
0
0.4%
Blake Hayes punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 26TD
9 plays · 77 yds · 4:31100% → 100%
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
0.4%
Corey Acker run for 2 yds to the Nwest 25Similar
Q4 10:32
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+12
0.4%
John Moten IV run for 12 yds to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
0.4%
Jesse Brown run for 9 yds to the Nwest 46Similar
Q4 10:32
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+15
0.3%
ILLINOIS Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Christion Abercrombie) to the Illin 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
0.4%
Auston Anderson run for 7 yds to the Illin 32Similar
Q4 10:32
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+7
0.3%
Corey Acker run for 7 yds to the Illin 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
0.4%
John Moten IV run for 7 yds to the Illin 18Similar
Q4 6:01
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+18
0.2%
Jesse Brown run for 18 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
0.1%
Kendrick Foster run for no gain to the Illin 41Similar
Q4 5:56
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
0.1%
Cam Thomas pass incomplete to Louis DorseySimilar
Q4 5:56
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
0.1%
Cam Thomas pass incomplete to Reggie CorbinSimilar
Q4 5:56
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
0.1%
Blake Hayes punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
0.2%
Corey Acker run for 3 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q4 5:08
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+2
0.2%
Auston Anderson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q4 5:08
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+3
0.2%
Auston Anderson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 36Similar
Q4 5:08
4TH & 2
OWN 36
0
0.2%
Daniel Kubiuk punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Illin 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 29INT
4 plays · 38 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
0.1%
Kendrick Foster run for 4 yds to the Illin 41Similar
Q4 2:44
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+18
0.1%
Cam Thomas pass complete to Louis Dorsey for 18 yds to the Nwest 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+16
0.1%
Cam Thomas pass complete to Louis Dorsey for 16 yds to the Nwest 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+65
0.1%
Cam Thomas pass intercepted Trae Williams return for 65 yds to the Illin 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 30END OF GAME
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
0.1%
Tyler Lancaster run for 4 yds to the Illin 9Similar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+1
0.1%
Tyler Lancaster run for 1 yd to the Illin 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:47
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)
-6.7
TD · Q2 8:03
Jelani Roberts run for 5 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)
-6.3
TD · Q1 8:38
Cam Thomas run for 23 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK)
+4.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com