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MICH

Michigan 10 at Wisconsin 24

WIS
2017 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2017 · Camp Randall Stadium
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Win probability · WIS
modelWIS aheadMICH aheadconfidence bandkey playWIS scoreMICH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:42 · Brad Robbins punt for 47 yds , Nick Nelson returns for 18 yds to the Wisc 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 142Home team on offense+20.0Pregame prior+1.5Garbage-time factor+5.3Score differential+6.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:24: Ben Mason 1 Yd Run (Quinn Nordin Kick) — MICH win probability +15.0 pts (now 46%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 8:16: Donovan Peoples-Jones run for 12 yds to the Wisc 17 for a 1ST down — MICH win probability +8.4 pts (now 49%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 3:53: Jonathan Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 19 — WIS win probability +9.0 pts (now 54%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q3 3:31: A.J. Taylor 24 Yd pass from Alex Hornibrook (Rafael Gaglianone Kick) — WIS win probability +19.5 pts (now 71%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:24: Kendric Pryor 32 Yd Run (Rafael Gaglianone Kick) — WIS win probability +16.1 pts (now 87%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WIS made the numbers' call on 6 of 9MICH made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 12:23MICH 4th & 6 at WIS 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    32.2%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    32.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:07WIS 4th & 1 at WIS 29, tied
    Close callPunted · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.2%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:10MICH 4th & 15 at MICH 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.5%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:58WIS 4th & 1 at WIS 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.3%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:15MICH 4th & 10 at MICH 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:47MICH 4th & 7 at MICH 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:43WIS 4th & 1 at WIS 12, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.1%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:58WIS 4th & 14 at WIS 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.4%−1.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:06WIS 4th & 3 at WIS 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.5%−1.0
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:51WIS 4th & 9 at WIS 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.9%−2.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:56MICH 4th & 18 at WIS 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.6%−3.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:37WIS 4th & 11 at WIS 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.7%−3.5
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:40MICH 4th & 11 at WIS 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.4%−0.8
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    40.0%−1.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    41.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:36MICH 4th & 14 at WIS 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.2%−3.4
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.5%
    74% to make
    Punt
    29.5%−10.0
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:06MICH 4th & 5 at MICH 30, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:17MICH 4th & 10 at WIS 49, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:25WIS 4th & 16 at MICH 40, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.4%−1.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    90.1%−0.4
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    90.5%
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:42MICH 4th & 11 at MICH 23, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%−0.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.9%
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:25WIS 4th & 5 at MICH 12, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.1%
    86% to make
    Punt
    93.5%−1.6
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:40MICH 4th & 2 at MICH 14, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.1%−1.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WIS made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MICH made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 1:15WIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:24MICH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 3:31WIS Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:24WIS Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MICHDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 34 yds · 2:3038% → 38%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
62.0%
Chris Evans run for 10 yds to the Mich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
62.0%
Peters, Brandon pass incomplete to McKeon, Sean, PENALTY WISCONSIN holding (Tindal, Derrick) 10 yards to the MICHIGAN45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGAN.Similar
Q1 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
62.0%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Kekoa CrawfordSimilar
Q1 14:02
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+1
61.9%
Chris Evans run for 1 yd to the Mich 46Similar
Q1 13:20
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+9
61.9%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Sean McKeon for 9 yds to the Wisc 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
61.8%
Karan Higdon run for 1 yd to the Wisc 44Similar
Q1 12:38
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+3
61.7%
Eddie McDoom run for 3 yds to the Wisc 41Similar
Q1 12:31
3RD & 6
OPP 41
0
61.7%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Sean McKeonSimilar
Q1 12:23
4TH & 6
OPP 41
0
61.9%
Brad Robbins punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4562% → 62%
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
62.0%
Alex Hornibrook run for 4 yds to the Wisc 24Similar
Q1 11:13
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+5
62.0%
Jonathan Taylor run for 5 yds to the Wisc 29Similar
Q1 10:29
3RD & 1
OWN 29
0
61.8%
Austin Ramesh run for no gain to the Wisc 29Similar
Q1 10:07
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+9
61.7%
Anthony Lotti punt for 53 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for 9 yds to the Mich 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 8 yds · 3:2638% → 37%
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
61.8%
Karan Higdon run for 8 yds to the Mich 35Similar
Q1 9:02
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+1
61.4%
Karan Higdon run for 1 yd to the Mich 36Similar
Q1 8:34
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+4
61.3%
Khalid Hill run for 4 yds to the Mich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
61.2%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 3 yds to the Mich 43Similar
Q1 7:28
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
61.1%
Chris Evans run for no gain to the Mich 43Similar
Q1 6:28
3RD & 7
OWN 43
-8
61.6%
Brandon Peters sacked by Garret Dooley for a loss of 8 yards to the Mich 35Similar
Q1 6:10
4TH & 15
OWN 35
0
62.6%
Brad Robbins punt for 45 yds, downed at the Wisc 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 2:5563% → 63%
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
62.8%
Jonathan Taylor run for 3 yds to the Wisc 23Similar
Q1 5:06
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+2
62.9%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Zander Neuville for 2 yds to the Wisc 25Similar
Q1 4:34
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+12
62.1%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Troy Fumagalli for 12 yds to the Wisc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
62.6%
Jonathan Taylor run for 2 yds to the Wisc 39Similar
Q1 3:35
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+7
62.9%
Kendric Pryor run for 7 yds to the Wisc 46Similar
Q1 3:09
3RD & 1
OWN 46
0
63.1%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Kyle PennistonSimilar
Q1 2:58
4TH & 1
OWN 46
0
62.7%
Anthony Lotti punt for 40 yds, downed at the Mich 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 5PUNT TD
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:2638% → 32%
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
62.1%
Karan Higdon run for 2 yds to the Mich 16Similar
Q1 2:17
2ND & 8
OWN 16
0
61.6%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Karan HigdonSimilar
Q1 2:05
3RD & 8
OWN 16
-2
62.2%
Chris Evans run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 14Similar
Q1 1:15
4TH & 10
OWN 14
+50
67.9%
Nick Nelson 50 Yd Punt Return (Rafael Gaglianone Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 3:0033% → 32%
Q1 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
67.2%
Karan Higdon run for 4 yds to the Mich 34Similar
Q1 0:18
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+5
67.0%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Grant Perry for 5 yds to the Mich 39Similar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+3
66.5%
Khalid Hill run for 3 yds to the Mich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
67.1%
Brandon Peters run for 1 yd to the Mich 43Similar
Q2 13:36
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+2
67.4%
Chris Evans run for 2 yds to the Mich 45Similar
Q2 13:01
3RD & 7
OWN 45
0
67.7%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Zach GentrySimilar
Q2 12:47
4TH & 7
OWN 45
0
68.5%
Brad Robbins punt for 52 yds, downed at the Wisc 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3968% → 68%
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
68.3%
Bradrick Shaw run for 1 yd to the Wisc 4Similar
Q2 11:43
2ND & 9
OWN 4
+6
68.4%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Troy Fumagalli for 6 yds to the Wisc 10Similar
Q2 11:19
3RD & 3
OWN 10
+2
68.2%
Bradrick Shaw run for 2 yds to the Wisc 12Similar
Q2 10:43
4TH & 1
OWN 12
0
67.8%
Anthony Lotti punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wisc 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8FUMBLE
5 plays · 35 yds · 1:2532% → 33%
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
67.7%
Kareem Walker run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 41Similar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 11
OPP 41
+35
68.1%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Zach Gentry for 35 yds to the Wisc 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
66.9%
Karan Higdon run for 1 yd to the Wisc 5Similar
Q2 8:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
67.0%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Donovan Peoples-JonesSimilar
Q2 8:42
3RD & 0
OPP 5
+4
67.0%
Brandon Peters run for 4 yds to the Wisc 1 Brandon Peters fumbled, forced by Leon Jacobs, recovered by Wisc Derrick TindalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 48 yds · 2:2970% → 71%
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+20
69.7%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Troy Fumagalli for 20 yds to the Wisc 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
70.8%
Jonathan Taylor run for 11 yds to the Wisc 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+21
71.4%
Jonathan Taylor run for 21 yds to the Mich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-4
73.0%
Jonathan Taylor run for a loss of 4 yards to the Wisc 49Similar
Q2 6:11
2ND & 14
OWN 49
0
72.0%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Kendric PryorSimilar
Q2 6:06
3RD & 14
OWN 49
0
71.4%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Danny Davis IIISimilar
Q2 5:58
4TH & 14
OWN 49
-2
70.6%
Anthony Lotti punt for 33 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 10TD
7 plays · 84 yds · 3:0628% → 46%
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
72.0%
Chris Evans run for no gain to the Mich 16Similar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+48
73.0%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 48 yds to the Wisc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
70.0%
Brandon Peters run for no gain to the Wisc 36Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+2
70.3%
Chris Evans run for 2 yds to the Wisc 34Similar
Q2 3:22
3RD & 8
OPP 34
+19
70.6%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Chris Evans for 19 yds to the Wisc 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+14
68.8%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Sean McKeon for 14 yds to the Wisc 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
53.8%
Ben Mason 1 Yd Run (Quinn Nordin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:5562% → 60%
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
62.1%
Jonathan Taylor run for 4 yds to the Wisc 19Similar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 6
OWN 19
0
61.5%
Jonathan Taylor run for no gain to the Wisc 19Similar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+3
60.6%
Jonathan Taylor run for 3 yds to the Wisc 22Similar
Q2 0:06
4TH & 3
OWN 22
-6
59.6%
Anthony Lotti punt for 41 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for a loss of 6 yards to the Mich 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
57.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:5161% → 58%
Q3 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
60.6%
Jonathan Taylor run for 3 yds to the Wisc 23Similar
Q3 14:06
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-1
60.5%
Kendric Pryor run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 22Similar
Q3 13:28
3RD & 8
OWN 22
-1
59.0%
Alex Hornibrook sacked by Mike McCray for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 21Similar
Q3 12:51
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
57.6%
Anthony Lotti punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mich 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:3345% → 42%
Q3 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+22
54.9%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Khalid Hill for 22 yds to the Wisc 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
53.5%
Kareem Walker run for no gain to the Wisc 40Similar
Q3 11:39
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+2
53.4%
Brandon Peters run for 2 yds to the Wisc 38Similar
Q3 11:06
3RD & 8
OPP 38
-10
53.7%
Brandon Peters sacked by T.J. Edwards for a loss of 10 yards to the Wisc 48Similar
Q3 10:56
4TH & 18
OPP 48
0
57.9%
Brad Robbins punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Nick Nelson at the Wisc 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:4559% → 57%
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-5
59.4%
Alex Hornibrook sacked by Maurice Hurst for a loss of 5 yards to the Wisc 7Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 15
OWN 7
0
59.1%
Alex Hornibrook pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:02
3RD & 15
OWN 7
+4
57.7%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to A.J. Taylor for 4 yds to the Wisc 11Similar
Q3 9:37
4TH & 11
OWN 11
+6
57.2%
Anthony Lotti punt for 36 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for 6 yds to the Wisc 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:5747% → 43%
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
52.9%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Juwann Bushell-Beatty) to the Wisc 46Similar
Q3 9:31
1ST & 15
OPP 46
0
54.1%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Zach GentrySimilar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 15
OPP 46
+4
54.7%
Brandon Peters run for 4 yds to the Wisc 42Similar
Q3 8:48
3RD & 11
OPP 42
0
54.7%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Grant PerrySimilar
Q3 8:40
4TH & 11
OPP 42
0
57.2%
Brad Robbins punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wisc 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 17INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
59.4%
Alex Hornibrook pass intercepted Devin Bush return for no gain to the Wisc 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18FG
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:4049% → 50%
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+12
51.0%
Donovan Peoples-Jones run for 12 yds to the Wisc 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-3
50.8%
Kareem Walker run for a loss of 3 yards to the Wisc 20Similar
Q3 7:19
2ND & 13
OPP 20
0
51.2%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Eddie McDoomSimilar
Q3 6:58
3RD & 13
OPP 20
-1
53.8%
Chris Evans run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 21Similar
Q3 6:36
4TH & 14
OPP 21
+39
50.3%
Quinn Nordin 39 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 19TD
11 plays · 77 yds · 2:2851% → 71%
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-4
50.6%
Jonathan Taylor run for a loss of 4 yards to the Wisc 19Similar
Q3 5:52
2ND & 14
OWN 19
+15
50.0%
Hornibrook, Alex pass incomplete to Taylor, A.J., PENALTY MICHIGAN pass interference (Kinnel, Tyree) 15 yards to the WISCONSIN34, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WISCONSIN.Similar
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
51.0%
Alex Hornibrook pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-3
50.6%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Jonathan Taylor for a loss of 3 yards to the Wisc 31Similar
Q3 4:41
3RD & 13
OWN 31
+51
45.2%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to A.J. Taylor for 51 yds to the Mich 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-1
54.2%
Jonathan Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 19Similar
Q3 3:37
2ND & 11
OPP 19
0
54.0%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Danny Davis IIISimilar
Q3 3:37
3RD & 11
OPP 19
-5
51.6%
WISCONSIN Penalty, False Start (Troy Fumagalli) to the Mich 24Similar
Q3 3:31
3RD & 16
OPP 24
+24
71.1%
A.J. Taylor 24 Yd pass from Alex Hornibrook (Rafael Gaglianone Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1034% → 31%
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
66.5%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 2 yds to the Mich 27Similar
Q3 2:36
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
66.1%
Karan Higdon run for 3 yds to the Mich 30Similar
Q3 2:13
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
66.6%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Chris EvansSimilar
Q3 2:06
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
68.7%
Brad Robbins punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wisc 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 21TD
5 plays · 61 yds · 1:3572% → 87%
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
72.4%
Jonathan Taylor run for 7 yds to the Wisc 46Similar
Q3 1:41
2ND & 3
OPP 49
-5
73.9%
Jonathan Taylor run for 5 yds to the WISCONSIN 49 WISCONSIN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tyler Biadasz) to the Wisc 41Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
72.9%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Danny Davis IIISimilar
Q3 1:01
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+27
70.7%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Danny Davis III for 27 yds to the Mich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
86.8%
Kendric Pryor 32 Yd Run (Rafael Gaglianone Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 22PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 1:4816% → 13%
Q3 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
84.2%
John O'Korn pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 11 yds to the Mich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
82.8%
Chris Evans run for 9 yds to the Mich 45Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 1
OWN 45
0
81.1%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Zach GentrySimilar
Q4 14:02
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+6
82.2%
Chris Evans run for 6 yds to the Wisc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
81.1%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Donovan Peoples-JonesSimilar
Q4 13:34
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
81.9%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Donovan Peoples-JonesSimilar
Q4 13:29
3RD & 10
OPP 49
0
86.1%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Donovan Peoples-JonesSimilar
Q4 13:17
4TH & 10
OPP 49
0
87.3%
Brad Robbins punt for 43 yds, downed at the Wisc 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 23PUNT
9 plays · 54 yds · 3:2988% → 91%
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+1
88.1%
Jonathan Taylor run for 1 yd to the Wisc 7Similar
Q4 12:13
2ND & 9
OWN 7
+5
88.2%
Rachid Ibrahim run for 5 yds to the Wisc 12Similar
Q4 11:59
3RD & 4
OWN 12
+2
87.8%
Hornibrook, Alex pass incomplete to Fumagalli, Troy, PENALTY MICHIGAN pass interference (Metellus, Josh) 2 yards to the WISCONSIN14, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WISCONSIN.Similar
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
88.6%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Austin RameshSimilar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+52
88.8%
Jonathan Taylor run for 52 yds to the Mich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-12
91.6%
Alex Hornibrook sacked by Khaleke Hudson for a loss of 12 yards to the Mich 46Similar
Q4 10:16
2ND & 22
OPP 46
0
91.8%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Kendric PryorSimilar
Q4 9:54
3RD & 22
OPP 46
+6
91.3%
Alex Hornibrook run for 6 yds to the Mich 40Similar
Q4 9:25
4TH & 16
OPP 40
+16
90.7%
Anthony Lotti punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Donovan Peoples-Jones at the Mich 14 WISCONSIN Penalty, Defensive Holding (Adam Bay) to the Mich 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:389% → 7%
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
91.4%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Sean McKeonSimilar
Q4 8:58
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-2
91.6%
Chris Evans run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 22Similar
Q4 8:11
3RD & 12
OWN 22
+1
92.4%
John O'Korn run for 1 yd to the Mich 23Similar
Q4 7:42
4TH & 11
OWN 23
+18
92.8%
Brad Robbins punt for 47 yds , Nick Nelson returns for 18 yds to the Wisc 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 25FG
13 plays · 40 yds · 4:5493% → 99%
Q4 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
93.4%
Jonathan Taylor run for 4 yds to the Mich 48Similar
Q4 6:56
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+7
93.5%
Jonathan Taylor run for 7 yds to the Mich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+13
94.4%
Jonathan Taylor run for 13 yds to the Mich 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
94.7%
Bradrick Shaw run for 2 yds to the Mich 26Similar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+7
94.9%
Bradrick Shaw run for 7 yds to the Mich 19Similar
Q4 3:49
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+2
95.3%
Garrett Groshek run for 2 yds to the Mich 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
95.9%
Garrett Groshek run for no gain to the Mich 17Similar
Q4 3:17
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+7
96.7%
Garrett Groshek run for 7 yds to the Mich 10Similar
Q4 2:54
3RD & 3
OPP 10
-2
97.0%
Garrett Groshek run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 12Similar
Q4 2:25
4TH & 5
OPP 12
+30
99.0%
Rafael Gaglianone 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 26DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:211% → 1%
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+8
98.8%
John O'Korn pass complete to Grant Perry for 8 yds to the Mich 14Similar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 2
OWN 14
0
98.6%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Grant PerrySimilar
Q4 1:46
3RD & 2
OWN 14
0
98.7%
John O'Korn run for no gain to the Mich 14Similar
Q4 1:40
4TH & 2
OWN 14
+1
98.7%
John O'Korn run for 1 yd to the Mich 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 27END OF GAME
3 plays · -4 yds · 1:1399% → 99%
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-2
99.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 16Similar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 12
OPP 16
-1
99.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 17Similar
Q4 0:03
3RD & 13
OPP 17
-1
99.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:31
A.J. Taylor 24 Yd pass from Alex Hornibrook (Rafael Gaglianone Kick)
+19.5
TD · Q3 0:24
Kendric Pryor 32 Yd Run (Rafael Gaglianone Kick)
+16.1
TD · Q2 2:24
Ben Mason 1 Yd Run (Quinn Nordin Kick)
-15
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com