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NEB

Nebraska 44 at Penn State 56

PSU
2017 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2017 · Beaver Stadium
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Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadNEB aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreNEB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-0.6PSU 95.7%Drew Brown 27 yd FG GOODAWAY 3 - HOME 7 · Q1 9:18
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:18 · Drew Brown 27 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 18Pregame prior+44.5Home team on offense+0.1Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Blowout margin+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:23: Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 9 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK) — PSU win probability +1.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:19: Trace McSorley pass complete to DeAndre Thompkins for 15 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK) — PSU win probability +1.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:34: Tanner Lee pass complete to De'Mornay Pierson-El for 22 yds for a TD PENN ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Drew Brown KICK) — NEB win probability +2.9 pts (now 4%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:59: Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 17 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK) — PSU win probability +1.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:20: Mikale Wilbon run for 1 yd for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK) — NEB win probability +1.7 pts (now 2%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4NEB made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 13:57NEB 4th & 9 at NEB 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:18NEB 4th & 10 at PSU 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.4%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.5%
    87% to make
    Punt
    5.0%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:18PSU 4th & 10 at PSU 18, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.0%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:31NEB 4th & 6 at NEB 37, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:45NEB 4th & 6 at NEB 30, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:23NEB 4th & 10 at NEB 25, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:15NEB 4th & 4 at NEB 31, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.1%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:00NEB 4th & 17 at NEB 28, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00NEB 4th & 6 at NEB 29, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:49PSU 4th & 5 at PSU 47, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:35PSU 4th & 6 at PSU 31, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:58NEB 4th & 15 at NEB 30, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:25PSU 4th & 3 at PSU 41, up 25
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:32NEB 4th & 2 at PSU 32, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%−0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%
    51% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8NEB made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 14:03PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:17NEB Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:40PSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:53PSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:23PSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 4:36PSU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 1:19PSU Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 6:40NEB Touchdown, down 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 2:34NEB Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 13:59PSU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 10:13PSU Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 6:32NEB Touchdown, down 26 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.3%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.4%
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 1:20NEB Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PSUDrive 1TD
4 plays · 74 yds · 0:5797% → 97%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
96.6%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+9
96.6%
Trace McSorley run for 9 yds to the PnSt 35Similar
Q1 14:03
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+65
96.5%
Saquon Barkley run for 65 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
96.5%
Mikale Wilbon run for 1 yd to the Neb 33Similar
Q1 13:57
2ND & 9
OWN 33
0
96.5%
Tanner Lee pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:57
3RD & 9
OWN 33
0
96.5%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete, broken up by Jason CabindaSimilar
Q1 13:57
4TH & 9
OWN 33
-3
96.5%
Caleb Lightbourn punt for 30 yds , Zech McPhearson returns for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 34 Zech McPhearson fumbled, recovered by Neb Collin MillerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 3FG
9 plays · 23 yds · 3:294% → 4%
Q1 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
96.3%
NEBRASKA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 39Similar
Q1 12:47
1ST & 15
OPP 39
+6
96.4%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Tyler Hoppes for 6 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
Q1 12:47
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+2
96.3%
Mikale Wilbon run for 2 yds to the PnSt 31Similar
Q1 12:47
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+8
96.3%
Tanner Lee pass complete to De'Mornay Pierson-El for 8 yds to the PnSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+12
96.3%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 12 yds to the PnSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
96.3%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to JD SpielmanSimilar
Q1 12:47
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
96.3%
Mikale Wilbon run for no gain to the PnSt 11Similar
Q1 12:47
3RD & 10
OPP 11
0
96.3%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to Tyler Hoppes, broken up by Troy Apke NEBRASKA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 9:18
4TH & 10
OPP 11
+27
95.7%
Drew Brown 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
95.7%
Saquon Barkley run for 4 yds to the PnSt 22Similar
Q1 9:18
2ND & 6
OWN 22
-5
95.7%
PENN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 17Similar
Q1 9:18
2ND & 11
OWN 17
+1
95.7%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the PnSt 18Similar
Q1 9:18
3RD & 10
OWN 18
0
95.6%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete PENN ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 9:18
4TH & 10
OWN 18
0
95.6%
Blake Gillikin punt for 18 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 5TD
3 plays · 36 yds · 1:095% → 6%
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+17
95.2%
Tanner Lee pass complete to JD Spielman for 17 yds to the PnSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+18
95.2%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 18 yds to the PnSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
94.5%
Devine Ozigbo run for 1 yd for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK) PENN ST Penalty, roughing the kicker ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 6TD
8 plays · 66 yds · 3:3095% → 95%
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
94.7%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 5 yds to the PnSt 39Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 5
OWN 39
0
94.8%
Saquon Barkley run for no gain to the PnSt 39Similar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+7
94.8%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 7 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+43
94.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 43 yds to the Neb 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+10
95.0%
Saquon Barkley run for 10 yds to the Neb 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
95.0%
Trace McSorley run for no gain to the Neb 1Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
94.7%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
94.2%
Devine Ozigbo run for a loss of 2 yards to the Neb 31Similar
Q1 2:31
2ND & 12
OWN 31
+4
94.3%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Tyler Hoppes for 4 yds to the Neb 35Similar
Q1 2:31
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+7
94.3%
Tanner Lee pass complete to JD Spielman for 7 yds to the Neb 42Similar
Q1 2:31
4TH & 1
OWN 42
-5
94.2%
NEBRASKA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Neb 37Similar
Q1 2:31
4TH & 6
OWN 37
0
94.4%
Caleb Lightbourn punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 8TD
9 plays · 85 yds · 3:2294% → 95%
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+30
93.7%
Saquon Barkley run for 30 yds to the PnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
93.9%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+9
93.8%
Trace McSorley run for 9 yds to the Neb 46Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 46
-9
93.9%
Barkley, Saquon rush for 2 yards to the NEB44 (Dedrick Young;M. Stoltenberg), PENALTY PSU holding (McGovern, C.) 9 yards to the PSU45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+22
93.6%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saeed Blacknall for 22 yds to the Neb 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
94.0%
Saquon Barkley run for 5 yds to the Neb 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+11
94.0%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the Neb 27 for a 1ST down NEBRASKA Penalty, Defensive holding (10 Yards) to the Neb 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
94.0%
Trace McSorley run for 8 yds to the Neb 9Similar
Q2 11:53
2ND & 2
OPP 9
+9
94.9%
Trace McSorley run for 9 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:006% → 5%
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
94.4%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to JD SpielmanSimilar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+4
94.4%
Mikale Wilbon run for 4 yds to the Neb 30Similar
Q2 11:45
3RD & 6
OWN 30
0
94.5%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to JD SpielmanSimilar
Q2 11:45
4TH & 6
OWN 30
0
94.6%
Caleb Lightbourn punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 10TD
5 plays · 67 yds · 1:2795% → 96%
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+24
94.6%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 24 yds to the Neb 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
94.9%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DaeSean Hamilton, broken up by Mohamed BarrySimilar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+12
94.8%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 12 yds to the Neb 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+22
94.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 13 yds to the Neb 18 for a 1ST down NEBRASKA Penalty, roughing passer (Carlos Davis) to the Neb 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
96.4%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 9 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.2%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to Stanley Morgan Jr.Similar
Q2 9:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
96.2%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to Tyler HoppesSimilar
Q2 9:23
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
96.3%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to JD SpielmanSimilar
Q2 9:23
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
96.3%
Caleb Lightbourn punt for 40 yds, downed at the PnSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 12TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 4:2496% → 98%
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
96.4%
Saquon Barkley run for 8 yds to the PnSt 43Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+3
96.5%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 3 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
96.5%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Juwan JohnsonSimilar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+10
96.5%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 10 yds to the Neb 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
96.5%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 6 yds to the Neb 38Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+8
96.5%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 8 yds to the Neb 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-2
96.5%
Trace McSorley sacked by Carlos Davis for a loss of 2 yards to the Neb 32Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 12
OPP 32
+15
96.5%
McSorley, Trace pass incomplete to Johnson, Juwan (Joshua Kalu), PENALTY NEB pass interference (Joshua Kalu) 15 yards to the NEB17, 1ST DOWN PSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
96.5%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Tommy Stevens for 9 yds to the Neb 8Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 1
OPP 8
0
96.5%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DaeSean Hamilton, broken up by Marcus NewbySimilar
Q2 4:36
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+8
97.6%
Saquon Barkley run for 8 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:154% → 4%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
96.3%
Devine Ozigbo run for 5 yds to the Neb 30Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
96.1%
Devine Ozigbo run for 1 yd to the Neb 31Similar
Q2 3:15
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
96.0%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to JD Spielman NEBRASKA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 3:15
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
96.2%
Caleb Lightbourn punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 14TD
8 plays · 78 yds · 1:4598% → 99%
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
97.7%
Saquon Barkley run for 2 yds to the PnSt 24Similar
Q2 3:04
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+26
97.7%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 26 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
50
+9
98.1%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 9 yds to the Neb 41Similar
Q2 3:04
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+15
98.0%
McSorley, Trace pass incomplete to Gesicki, Mike (Marcus Newby), PENALTY NEB illegal use of hands (F. Akinmoladun) 15 yards to the NEB26, 1ST DOWN PSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
98.1%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q2 3:04
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+5
98.1%
Trace McSorley run for 5 yds to the Neb 21Similar
Q2 3:04
3RD & 5
OPP 21
+6
97.9%
Saquon Barkley run for 6 yds to the Neb 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
99.4%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DeAndre Thompkins for 15 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 0:191% → 1%
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.3%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to Tyler Hoppes, broken up by Jason CabindaSimilar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
99.3%
Tanner Lee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:19
3RD & 10
OWN 35
-7
99.3%
Tanner Lee sacked by Jason Cabinda and Shareef Miller for a loss of 7 yards to the Neb 28Similar
Q2 1:00
4TH & 17
OWN 28
0
99.3%
Caleb Lightbourn punt for 53 yds, downed at the PnSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 16END OF HALF
7 plays · 39 yds · 0:1499% → 99%
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
99.3%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Saeed Blacknall, broken up by Chris JonesSimilar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+1
99.3%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the PnSt 20Similar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 9
OWN 20
+24
99.3%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 24 yds to the PnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
99.4%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
99.3%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Mike GesickiSimilar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+14
99.3%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 14 yds to the Neb 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.3%
Mikale Wilbon run for 1 yd to the Neb 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-7
99.3%
Tanner Lee sacked by Kevin Givens for a loss of 7 yards to the Neb 19Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+10
99.3%
Tanner Lee pass complete to JD Spielman for 10 yds to the Neb 29Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+10
99.3%
Caleb Lightbourn punt for 39 yds , DeAndre Thompkins returns for 10 yds to the PnSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
99.5%
Saquon Barkley run for 7 yds to the PnSt 49Similar
Q3 12:49
2ND & 3
OWN 49
-2
99.5%
Trace McSorley sacked by Alex Davis for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 47Similar
Q3 12:49
3RD & 5
OWN 47
0
99.5%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for no gain to the PnSt 47Similar
Q3 12:49
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
99.5%
Blake Gillikin punt for 43 yds, downed at the Neb 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 19TD
8 plays · 90 yds · 4:121% → 1%
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
99.5%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Tyler Hoppes for 5 yds to the Neb 15Similar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+3
99.5%
Devine Ozigbo run for 3 yds to the Neb 18Similar
Q3 10:52
3RD & 2
OWN 18
+12
99.5%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Mikale Wilbon for 12 yds to the Neb 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
99.5%
JD Spielman run for 8 yds to the Neb 38Similar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+3
99.4%
Devine Ozigbo run for 3 yds to the Neb 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+34
99.4%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 34 yds to the PnSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
99.4%
Devine Ozigbo run for 1 yd to the PnSt 24Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+24
98.8%
Mikale Wilbon run for 24 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
99.3%
Saquon Barkley run for 4 yds to the PnSt 31Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+5
99.3%
Saquon Barkley run for 5 yds to the PnSt 36Similar
Q3 6:35
3RD & 1
OWN 36
-5
99.3%
PENN ST Penalty, false start (DaeSean Hamilton) to the PnSt 31Similar
Q3 6:35
3RD & 6
OWN 31
0
99.3%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DaeSean Hamilton, broken up by Joshua KaluSimilar
Q3 6:35
4TH & 6
OWN 31
+3
99.3%
Blake Gillikin punt for 41 yds , De'Mornay Pierson-El returns for 3 yds to the Neb 34 NEBRASKA Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Neb 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 21TD
5 plays · 79 yds · 2:131% → 4%
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
99.1%
Tanner Lee run for 6 yds to the Neb 27Similar
Q3 4:47
2ND & 4
OWN 27
-5
99.1%
NEBRASKA Penalty, false start (Nick Gates) to the Neb 22Similar
Q3 4:47
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+5
99.1%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Tyler Hoppes for 5 yds to the Neb 27Similar
Q3 4:47
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+51
99.1%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 51 yds to the PnSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
96.2%
Tanner Lee pass complete to De'Mornay Pierson-El for 22 yds for a TD PENN ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 22TD
11 plays · 79 yds · 3:2997% → 100%
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
97.4%
Miles Sanders run for 5 yds to the PnSt 26Similar
Q3 2:28
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+10
97.5%
Trace McSorley run for 10 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
97.5%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Tom Pancoast for 6 yds to the PnSt 42Similar
Q3 2:28
2ND & 4
OWN 42
-7
97.6%
Miles Sanders run for 3 yds to the PnSt 45 PENN ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Steven Gonzalez) to the PnSt 35Similar
Q3 2:28
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+16
97.4%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 16 yds to the Neb 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
97.6%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DeAndre ThompkinsSimilar
Q3 2:28
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+14
97.6%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 14 yds to the Neb 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
98.0%
Miles Sanders run for 5 yds to the Neb 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+13
98.0%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Tommy Stevens for 13 yds to the Neb 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
99.7%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 17 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 1:011% → 1%
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
99.3%
Tyjon Lindsey run for 1 yd to the Neb 36Similar
Q4 13:59
2ND & 9
OWN 36
-6
99.3%
Tanner Lee sacked by Tyrell Chavis for a loss of 6 yards to the Neb 30 NEBRASKA Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 12:58
3RD & 15
OWN 30
0
99.5%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to Stanley Morgan Jr., broken up by Christian CampbellSimilar
Q4 12:58
4TH & 15
OWN 30
0
99.5%
Caleb Lightbourn punt for 45 yds, downed at the PnSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 24TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:31100% → 100%
Q4 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
99.7%
Tommy Stevens run for 4 yds to the PnSt 29 for a 1ST down NEBRASKA Penalty, personal foul (Lamar Jackson) to the PnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
99.7%
Tommy Stevens run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 12:44
2ND & 4
50
0
99.7%
Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Brandon PolkSimilar
Q4 12:44
3RD & 4
50
+20
99.7%
Tommy Stevens run for 20 yds to the Neb 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
99.7%
Miles Sanders run for 15 yds to the Neb 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
99.9%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Nick Bowers for 15 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 25TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:410% → 0%
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.9%
Mikale Wilbon run for 15 yds to the Neb 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
99.9%
Mikale Wilbon run for 2 yds to the Neb 42Similar
Q4 10:13
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+7
99.9%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Tyler Hoppes for 7 yds to the Neb 49Similar
Q4 10:13
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+9
99.9%
Jaylin Bradley run for 9 yds to the PnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+31
99.9%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 21 yds to the PnSt 21 for a 1ST down PENN ST Penalty, illegal helmet contact (Troy Apke) to the PnSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
99.9%
Mikale Wilbon run for 3 yds to the PnSt 8Similar
Q4 6:32
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+8
99.6%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 8 yds for a TD PENN ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
99.8%
Tommy Stevens run for no gain to the PnSt 34Similar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+6
99.8%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Miles Sanders for 6 yds to the PnSt 40Similar
Q4 6:25
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+1
99.8%
Tommy Stevens run for 1 yd to the PnSt 41Similar
Q4 6:25
4TH & 3
OWN 41
0
99.8%
Blake Gillikin punt for 56 yds, downed at the Neb 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 27TD
7 plays · 97 yds · 3:120% → 2%
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+41
99.8%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 41 yds to the Neb 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+16
99.7%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Tyler Hoppes for 16 yds to the PnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
99.7%
Tanner Lee sacked by Robert Windsor for a loss of 5 yards to the PnSt 45Similar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 15
OPP 45
+10
99.7%
Tanner Lee pass complete to De'Mornay Pierson-El for 10 yds to the PnSt 35Similar
Q4 4:32
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+3
99.7%
Tanner Lee run for 3 yds to the PnSt 32Similar
Q4 4:32
4TH & 2
OPP 32
+31
99.7%
Tanner Lee pass complete to JD Spielman for 31 yds to the PnSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.0%
Mikale Wilbon run for 1 yd for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 28TD
8 plays · 54 yds · 1:202% → 3%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+14
98.5%
Tanner Lee pass complete to De'Mornay Pierson-El for 14 yds to the PnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
98.3%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Mikale Wilbon for 6 yds to the PnSt 34Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+7
98.0%
Tanner Lee pass complete to JD Spielman for 7 yds to the PnSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+24
98.0%
Tanner Lee pass complete to JD Spielman for 24 yds to the PnSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
98.0%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to JD SpielmanSimilar
Q4 1:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
98.0%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to De'Mornay Pierson-El, broken up by Lamont WadeSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
96.6%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Jack Stoll for 3 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+3.4
TD · Q3 2:34
Tanner Lee pass complete to De'Mornay Pierson-El for 22 yds for a TD PENN ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Drew Brown KICK)
-2.9
TD · Q4 13:59
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 17 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)
+1.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com