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Minnesota 0 at Northwestern 39

NU
2017 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2017 · Ryan Field
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Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadMINN aheadconfidence bandkey playNU scoreMINN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:20 · Alex Bousky run for 6 yds to the Minn 34 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:36: Jeremy Larkin run for 5 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK) — NU win probability +4.4 pts (now 76%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:34: Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 8 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander PAT BLOCKED) NORTHWESTERN Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declined — NU win probability +7.5 pts (now 84%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:09: Jelani Roberts run for 12 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — NU win probability +4.3 pts (now 89%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:26: Rodney Smith run for 8 yds to the Minn 33 — MINN win probability +7.4 pts (now 14%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: Luke Otto kickoff for 43 yds , Rodney Smith return for 15 yds to the Minn 37 — NU win probability +9.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NU made the numbers' call on 4 of 8MINN made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00NU 4th & 11 at NU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.2%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:28MINN 4th & 12 at NU 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−<0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    30.9%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    30.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:38NU 4th & 9 at MINN 30, tied
    Close callWent for it · 68.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.7%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    68.8%
    56% to make
    Punt
    68.7%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:37MINN 4th & 14 at MINN 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00NU 4th & 1 at MINN 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    67.0%−0.6
    84% to make
    Punt
    65.0%−2.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:34MINN 4th & 5 at MINN 30, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.9%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:32NU 4th & 13 at NU 48, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.8%−1.3
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:48MINN 4th & 8 at MINN 24, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.9%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:53MINN 4th & 25 at MINN 22, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.6%−0.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:16NU 4th & 2 at NU 25, up 25
    Close callPunted · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.2%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:56MINN 4th & 6 at NU 43, down 25
    Close callPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    2.9%−0.7
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    3.4%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:13NU 4th & 1 at NU 29, up 25
    Close callPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.2%−0.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00NU 4th & 1 at NU 27, up 32
    Close callPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:07MINN 4th & 12 at NU 47, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:51NU 4th & 6 at NU 42, up 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:26MINN 4th & 5 at MINN 10, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q2 12:36NU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:34NU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    79.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:09NU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    87.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    87.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:26NU Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    93.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    93.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:25NU Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:11NU Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.9%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn NagelSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
71.9%
Justin Jackson run for 7 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-8
71.9%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Carter Coughlin for a loss of 8 yards to the Nwest 24Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
71.9%
Hunter Niswander punt for 47 yds, downed at the Minn 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 34 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+36
71.6%
Demry Croft pass complete to Rashad Still for 36 yds to the Nwest 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
71.5%
Demry Croft pass complete to Rodney Smith for 7 yds to the Nwest 28Similar
Q1 13:28
2ND & 3
OPP 28
-2
71.5%
Rodney Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 30Similar
Q1 13:28
3RD & 5
OPP 30
-7
71.5%
Demry Croft sacked by Nate Hall for a loss of 7 yards to the Nwest 37Similar
Q1 13:28
4TH & 12
OPP 37
0
71.7%
Ryan Santoso punt for 35 yds, downed at the Nwest 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 3DOWNS
11 plays · 73 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+4
71.1%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 6Similar
Q1 10:38
2ND & 6
OWN 6
+4
71.1%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 10Similar
Q1 10:38
3RD & 2
OWN 10
+4
70.9%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+41
71.1%
Justin Jackson run for 41 yds to the Minn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
71.6%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Macan Wilson, broken up by Antonio ShenaultSimilar
Q1 10:38
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-1
71.6%
Jeremy Larkin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 46Similar
Q1 10:38
3RD & 11
OPP 46
+15
71.3%
Clayton Thorson run for 15 yds to the Minn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
71.7%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Minn 26Similar
Q1 10:38
2ND & 5
OPP 26
-2
71.7%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 28Similar
Q1 10:38
3RD & 7
OPP 28
-2
71.6%
Clayton Thorson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 30Similar
Q1 10:38
4TH & 9
OPP 30
+5
71.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 5 yds to the Minn 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
69.9%
Rodney Smith run for 6 yds to the Minn 31Similar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+22
69.6%
Rodney Smith run for 22 yds to the Nwest 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
69.1%
Demry Croft pass incomplete to Rashad StillSimilar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+1
69.2%
Rodney Smith run for 1 yd to the Nwest 46Similar
Q1 5:37
3RD & 9
OPP 46
-5
69.4%
Demry Croft sacked by Nate Hall for a loss of 5 yards to the Minn 49Similar
Q1 5:37
4TH & 14
OWN 49
0
70.2%
Ryan Santoso punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 5TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 5:2870% → 76%
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
69.5%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 21Similar
Q1 3:04
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+11
69.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 11 yds to the Nwest 32 for a 1ST down MINNESOTA Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
69.7%
Jeremy Larkin run for 15 yds to the Nwest 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+10
70.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Jeremy Larkin for 10 yds to the Minn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
70.7%
Jeremy Larkin run for 1 yd to the Minn 42Similar
Q1 3:04
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+5
70.7%
Jackson, Justin rush for 5 yards to the MINN37 (Ayinde,Adekunle), PENALTY MINN offside defense (Umlor, Nate) 5 yards to the MINN37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:45
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+14
71.3%
Justin Jackson run for 14 yds to the Minn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-2
71.6%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 25Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 25
+7
71.5%
Justin Jackson run for 7 yds to the Minn 18Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 18
+4
71.1%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Minn 14Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 14
+3
70.5%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Minn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
71.6%
Jeremy Larkin run for 6 yds to the Minn 5Similar
Q2 12:36
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+5
75.9%
Jeremy Larkin run for 5 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 6FUMBLE
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
74.2%
Rodney Smith run for 5 yds to the Minn 30Similar
Q2 12:36
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
73.8%
Kobe McCrary run for 2 yds to the Minn 36 Kobe McCrary fumbled, forced by Ben Oxley, recovered by Nwest Montre HartageSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 7TD
8 plays · 36 yds · 3:2576% → 84%
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
75.8%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Minn 34Similar
Q2 11:59
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+10
76.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 10 yds to the Minn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
76.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Bennett SkowronekSimilar
Q2 11:59
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+8
76.0%
Justin Jackson run for 8 yds to the Minn 16Similar
Q2 11:59
3RD & 2
OPP 16
+2
75.6%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Minn 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
76.1%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Minn 9Similar
Q2 11:59
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+1
76.1%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Minn 8Similar
Q2 8:34
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+8
83.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 8 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander PAT BLOCKED) NORTHWESTERN Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q2 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
81.1%
Demry Croft sacked by Sam Miller for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 23Similar
Q2 8:34
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+2
81.2%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Minn 25Similar
Q2 8:34
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
81.4%
Kobe McCrary run for 5 yds to the Minn 30Similar
Q2 8:34
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
81.4%
Ryan Santoso punt for 19 yds, downed at the Minn 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0084% → 83%
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
83.9%
Jeremy Larkin run for 1 yd to the Minn 48Similar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 9
OPP 48
0
83.9%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn Nagel, broken up by Andrew StelterSimilar
Q2 6:32
3RD & 9
OPP 48
-4
83.4%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Kamal Martin for a loss of 4 yards to the Nwest 48Similar
Q2 6:32
4TH & 13
OWN 48
0
82.6%
Hunter Niswander punt for 48 yds, downed at the Minn 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 10INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+5
82.9%
Rodney Smith run for 5 yds to the Minn 9Similar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 5
OWN 9
-1
83.0%
Rodney Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 8Similar
Q2 5:04
3RD & 6
OWN 8
0
83.1%
Demry Croft pass intercepted Montre Hartage return for no gain to the Minn 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 11TD
2 plays · 15 yds · 0:3785% → 89%
Q2 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
85.1%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Minn 12Similar
Q2 3:09
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+12
89.3%
Jelani Roberts run for 12 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 0:1213% → 13%
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
87.5%
Rodney Smith run for no gain to the Minn 22Similar
Q2 2:53
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+2
87.6%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Minn 24Similar
Q2 2:48
3RD & 8
OWN 24
0
87.3%
Demry Croft pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:48
4TH & 8
OWN 24
0
87.3%
Ryan Santoso punt for 27 yds, downed at the Nwest 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 13TD
7 plays · 51 yds · 2:0892% → 95%
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
91.6%
Justin Jackson run for 8 yds to the Minn 43Similar
Q2 2:34
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+6
91.2%
Justin Jackson run for 6 yds to the Minn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
91.6%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Minn 33Similar
Q2 2:34
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+8
91.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Macan Wilson for 8 yds to the Minn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
91.5%
Justin Jackson run for 7 yds to the Minn 18Similar
Q2 2:34
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+2
91.2%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Minn 18 Justin Jackson fumbled, forced by Winston DeLattiboudere, recovered by Nwest Clayton ThorsonSimilar
Q2 0:26
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+18
94.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 18 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
86.5%
Rodney Smith run for 8 yds to the Minn 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -15 yds · 0:006% → 7%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-9
94.3%
Mark Williams sacked by Tyler Lancaster and Nate Hall for a loss of 9 yards to the Minn 28Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 19
OWN 28
0
93.9%
Demry Croft pass incomplete to Rashad StillSimilar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 19
OWN 28
-6
93.4%
Demry Croft sacked by Joe Gaziano for a loss of 6 yards to the Minn 22Similar
Q3 14:53
4TH & 25
OWN 22
0
93.1%
Ryan Santoso punt for 51 yds , Riley Lees returns for no gain to the Nwest 22 NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the Nwest 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0097% → 96%
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
96.7%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 20Similar
Q3 13:16
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+2
96.7%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 22Similar
Q3 13:16
3RD & 5
OWN 22
+3
96.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 3 yds to the Nwest 25Similar
Q3 13:16
4TH & 2
OWN 25
0
96.4%
Hunter Niswander punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Antonio Shenault at the Minn 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
96.4%
Demry Croft pass incomplete to Phillip Howard, broken up by Godwin IgwebuikeSimilar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+10
96.4%
Rodney Smith run for 10 yds to the Nwest 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
96.4%
Smith, Rodney rush for 1 yard to the NU46 (Lancaster, T.), PENALTY NU offside defense (Gaziano, Joe) 5 yards to the NU42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 5
OPP 42
-10
96.2%
Demry Croft sacked by Alex Miller for a loss of 10 yards to the Minn 48Similar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 15
OWN 48
0
96.0%
Demry Croft pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:56
3RD & 15
OWN 48
+9
96.1%
Demry Croft run for 9 yds to the Nwest 43Similar
Q3 10:56
4TH & 6
OPP 43
0
96.4%
Ryan Santoso punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
97.7%
Justin Jackson run for 7 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q3 8:13
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+1
97.8%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 28Similar
Q3 8:13
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+1
97.7%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 29Similar
Q3 8:13
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
97.6%
Hunter Niswander punt for 38 yds, downed at the Minn 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 19INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+36
97.6%
Demry Croft pass intercepted Kyle Queiro return for 36 yds to the Minn 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 20TD
4 plays · 27 yds · 1:1599% → 100%
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-15
98.6%
Jackson, Justin rush for 7 yards to the MINN20 (Coughlin, C), PENALTY NU tripping (Doles, Tommy) 15 yards to the MINN42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 25
OPP 42
+30
98.6%
Justin Jackson run for 17 yds to the Minn 25 for a 1ST down MINNESOTA Penalty, personal foul (Duke McGhee) to the Minn 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-1
98.6%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 13Similar
Q3 4:25
2ND & 11
OPP 13
+13
99.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 13 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 21INT
10 plays · 51 yds · 2:391% → 0%
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
98.8%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Minn 40Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+18
98.7%
Kobe McCrary run for 18 yds to the Nwest 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
98.4%
Kobe McCrary run for 4 yds to the Nwest 38Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 6
OPP 38
-3
98.2%
Rodney Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 41Similar
Q3 1:41
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+30
99.8%
Rodney Smith run for 30 yds to the Nwest 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
99.7%
Rodney Smith run for no gain to the Nwest 11Similar
Q3 1:41
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
99.7%
Demry Croft pass incomplete to Mark Williams, broken up by Godwin IgwebuikeSimilar
Q3 1:41
3RD & 10
OPP 11
+18
99.8%
Demry Croft pass intercepted Nate Hall return for 18 yds to the Nwest 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:05100% → 100%
Q3 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
99.7%
Jeremy Larkin run for 6 yds to the Nwest 24Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+3
99.7%
Jeremy Larkin run for 3 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 27
0
99.7%
Jeremy Larkin run for no gain to the Nwest 27Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 27
0
99.7%
Hunter Niswander punt for 73 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 23FUMBLE
1 play · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
99.9%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Minn 24 Rodney Smith fumbled, forced by Paddy Fisher, recovered by Nwest Nate HallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 24TD
1 play · 24 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
99.9%
Corey Acker run for 24 yds for a TD, (Makay Redd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 25PUNT
9 plays · 40 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
99.9%
Rodney Smith run for 5 yds to the Minn 18Similar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+7
99.9%
Demry Croft run for 7 yds to the Minn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.9%
Kobe McCrary run for 6 yds to the Minn 31Similar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+24
99.9%
Kobe McCrary run for 24 yds to the Nwest 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-6
99.9%
Demry Croft run for a loss of 6 yards to the Minn 49Similar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 16
OWN 49
+1
99.9%
Kobe McCrary run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:07
3RD & 15
50
+3
99.9%
Demry Croft run for 3 yds to the Nwest 47Similar
Q4 13:07
4TH & 12
OPP 47
0
99.9%
Ryan Santoso punt for 32 yds, downed at the Nwest 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 26PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
99.9%
Auston Anderson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 19Similar
Q4 8:51
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+5
99.9%
Auston Anderson run for 5 yds to the Nwest 24Similar
Q4 8:51
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+2
99.9%
Auston Anderson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
99.9%
John Moten IV run for 12 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
99.9%
John Moten IV run for 1 yd to the Nwest 39Similar
Q4 8:51
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+2
99.9%
Jesse Brown run for 2 yds to the Nwest 41Similar
Q4 8:51
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+1
99.9%
Jesse Brown run for 1 yd to the Nwest 42Similar
Q4 8:51
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
99.9%
Hunter Niswander punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Antonio Shenault at the Minn 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-2
100.0%
Kobe McCrary run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 3Similar
Q4 3:26
2ND & 12
OWN 3
+3
100.0%
Kobe McCrary run for 3 yds to the Minn 6Similar
Q4 3:26
3RD & 9
OWN 6
+4
100.0%
Kobe McCrary run for 4 yds to the Minn 10Similar
Q4 3:26
4TH & 5
OWN 10
0
100.0%
Ryan Santoso punt for 35 yds, downed at the Minn 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 28END OF GAME
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
100.0%
Chad Hanaoka run for 5 yds to the Minn 40Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+6
100.0%
Alex Bousky run for 6 yds to the Minn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00
Luke Otto kickoff for 43 yds , Rodney Smith return for 15 yds to the Minn 37
+9.3
TD · Q2 8:34
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 8 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander PAT BLOCKED) NORTHWESTERN Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declined
+7.5
KEY PLAY · Q2 0:26
Rodney Smith run for 8 yds to the Minn 33
-7.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com