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MD

Maryland 7 at Michigan State 17

MSU
2017 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2017 · Spartan Stadium
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadMD aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreMD score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:30 · Jake Hartbarger punt for 45 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 64Pregame prior+20.7Home team on offense+9.1Score differential+4.2Garbage-time factor+2.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.9Time remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:52: Brian Lewerke run for 25 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +3.5 pts (now 85%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 2:23: Timeout MARYLAND, clock 02:23 — MSU win probability +5.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 9:50: Lorenzo Harrison III run for 4 yds for a TD, (Henry Darmstadter KICK) — MD win probability +6.9 pts (now 12%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 9:50: Danny Sutton kickoff for 50 yds , Antjuan Simmons return for 32 yds to the MchSt 47 — MSU win probability +2.4 pts (now 91%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 6:16: Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to Lorenzo Harrison III — MSU win probability +4.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8MD made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00MD 4th & 4 at MD 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:48MD 4th & 7 at MSU 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.8%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:08MSU 4th & 10 at MSU 13, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.4%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:44MD 4th & 10 at MSU 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.8%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    17.7%−0.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    17.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:02MD 4th & 11 at MD 16, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.0%−0.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:30MSU 4th & 11 at MD 45, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.2%−0.6
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    85.8%−0.9
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    86.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:02MD 4th & 2 at MD 28, down 14
    Close callPunted · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.3%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:59MSU 4th & 1 at MSU 40, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.9%−1.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:08MD 4th & 4 at MD 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%−0.3
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:44MSU 4th & 10 at MD 46, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.5%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    87.4%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 14:54MSU 4th & 9 at MSU 40, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.7%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:15MD 4th & 9 at MD 18, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.6%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:32MSU 4th & 9 at MD 9, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.7%−0.8
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.5%
    89% to make
    Punt
    88.7%−4.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00MD 4th & 6 at MD 46, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.1%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:51MSU 4th & 11 at MSU 19, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%−0.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:43MSU 4th & 9 at MD 41, up 10
    Close callPunted · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    87.6%−0.5
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    88.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:31MD 4th & 10 at MSU 18, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.0%
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.0%−<0.1
    79% to make
    Punt
    4.5%−1.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MD made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 7:48MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:52MSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 9:50MD Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.9%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MDDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+14
80.9%
Ty Johnson run for 14 yds to the Mary 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
80.9%
Ty Johnson run for 2 yds to the Mary 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 30
0
80.9%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to Taivon Jacobs, broken up by Andrew DowellSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+4
80.9%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Jahrvis Davenport for 4 yds to the Mary 34Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 34
0
80.9%
Wade Lees punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Cody White at the MchSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2TD
12 plays · 69 yds · 5:2781% → 81%
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
80.5%
LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the MchSt 35Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 6
OWN 35
0
80.5%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+8
80.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 8 yds to the MchSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
80.5%
LJ Scott run for 9 yds to the Mary 48Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+3
80.6%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the Mary 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+13
80.6%
LJ Scott run for 13 yds to the Mary 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
80.6%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the Mary 30Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+22
80.6%
Brian Lewerke run for 22 yds to the Mary 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
80.6%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the Mary 5Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
80.6%
Cody White run for 2 yds to the Mary 3Similar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 0
OPP 3
+1
80.6%
Lewerke, Brian pass incomplete to Davis, Felton (Brooks, A.), PENALTY UMD pass interference 1 yards to the UMD2, 1ST DOWN MSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
81.3%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0020% → 19%
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
80.5%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 4 yds to the Mary 39Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+10
80.3%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 10 yds to the Mary 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
80.2%
Ty Johnson run for no gain to the Mary 49Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+3
80.4%
Ty Johnson run for 3 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
Q1 7:48
3RD & 7
OPP 48
0
80.3%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to D.J. MooreSimilar
Q1 7:48
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
80.7%
Wade Lees punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Cody White at the MchSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0081% → 80%
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
80.6%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Felton Davis III, broken up by JC JacksonSimilar
Q1 5:08
2ND & 10
OWN 13
0
80.5%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:08
3RD & 10
OWN 13
0
80.3%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Gerald HolmesSimilar
Q1 5:08
4TH & 10
OWN 13
0
80.1%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 31 yds, downed at the MchSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0020% → 19%
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
79.8%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to Taivon JacobsSimilar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
79.8%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to D.J. MooreSimilar
Q1 4:44
3RD & 10
OPP 44
0
80.1%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to Jahrvis DavenportSimilar
Q1 4:44
4TH & 10
OPP 44
0
80.6%
Wade Lees punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Cody White at the MchSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6TD
9 plays · 85 yds · 4:3181% → 85%
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+20
80.6%
LJ Scott run for 20 yds to the MchSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
80.7%
LJ Scott run for no gain to the MchSt 35Similar
Q1 4:23
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+7
80.6%
LJ Scott run for 7 yds to the MchSt 42Similar
Q1 4:23
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+4
80.9%
LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the MchSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
81.2%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 41Similar
Q1 4:23
1ST & 15
OWN 41
+27
80.8%
Brian Lewerke run for 12 yds to the MICHIGANST 47 for a 1ST down MARYLAND Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Mary 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
81.3%
LJ Scott run for 5 yds to the Mary 27Similar
Q1 4:23
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+2
81.3%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the Mary 25Similar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+25
84.8%
Brian Lewerke run for 25 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 7FUMBLE
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
83.3%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 1 yd to the Mary 20Similar
Q2 14:46
2ND & 9
OWN 20
0
83.4%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D.J. Moore for no gain to the Mary 20Similar
Q2 14:46
3RD & 9
OWN 20
-7
83.5%
Max Bortenschlager run for a loss of 7 yards to the Mary 18 Max Bortenschlager fumbled, forced by Khari Willis, recovered by MchSt Brandon RandleSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8FUMBLE
3 plays · 17 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q2 13:19
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+13
85.4%
Gerald Holmes run for 13 yds to the Mary 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:19
1ST & 0
OPP 4
+3
85.8%
Gerald Holmes run for 3 yds to the Mary 1 Gerald Holmes fumbled, forced by Jermaine Carter Jr., recovered by Mary RaVon DavisSimilar
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
85.4%
Gerald Holmes run for 1 yd to the Mary 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+9
84.2%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 9 yds to the Mary 10Similar
Q2 12:02
2ND & 1
OWN 10
-1
84.0%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 9Similar
Q2 12:02
3RD & 2
OWN 9
+8
84.4%
Ty Johnson run for 8 yds to the Mary 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-7
83.9%
Max Bortenschlager sacked by Kenny Willekes for a loss of 7 yards to the Mary 10Similar
Q2 12:02
2ND & 17
OWN 10
+3
84.0%
Ty Johnson run for 3 yds to the Mary 13Similar
Q2 12:02
3RD & 14
OWN 13
+3
84.2%
Jake Funk run for 3 yds to the Mary 16Similar
Q2 12:02
4TH & 11
OWN 16
0
84.3%
Wade Lees punt for 58 yds, downed at the MchSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 0:0086% → 85%
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
85.7%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+17
85.7%
LJ Scott run for 17 yds to the MchSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
86.3%
LJ Scott run for 7 yds to the Mary 47Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+3
86.4%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the Mary 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
86.4%
LJ Scott run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 45Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 11
OPP 45
0
86.3%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 11
OPP 45
0
85.8%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:30
4TH & 11
OPP 45
0
85.2%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
85.3%
Ty Johnson run for 1 yd to the Mary 21Similar
Q2 5:02
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-1
85.4%
Ty Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 20Similar
Q2 5:02
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+8
85.7%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D.J. Moore for 8 yds to the Mary 28Similar
Q2 5:02
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
85.6%
Wade Lees punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MchSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:2287% → 87%
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
86.5%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the MchSt 34Similar
Q2 3:21
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+4
86.5%
LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the MchSt 38Similar
Q2 3:21
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+2
86.5%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the MchSt 40Similar
Q2 1:59
4TH & 1
OWN 40
0
86.9%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 41 yds, fair catch by D.J. Moore at the Mary 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:4213% → 13%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
86.7%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 3 yds to the Mary 22Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+3
86.7%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 3 yds to the Mary 25Similar
Q2 1:08
3RD & 4
OWN 25
0
86.5%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to D.J. Moore, broken up by Justin LayneSimilar
Q2 1:08
4TH & 4
OWN 25
0
86.9%
Wade Lees punt for 36 yds, downed at the MchSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0989% → 89%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
88.7%
Lewerke, Brian pass incomplete to Scott, LJ, PENALTY UMD pass interference 15 yards to the UMD46, 1ST DOWN MSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
90.0%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to LJ ScottSimilar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
90.0%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Cody WhiteSimilar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 10
OPP 46
0
89.6%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Matt SokolSimilar
Q2 0:44
4TH & 10
OPP 46
0
89.0%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mary 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
87.7%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to DJ Turner for 3 yds to the Mary 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:0088% → 87%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
88.0%
LJ Scott run for 11 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
88.4%
LJ Scott run for 1 yd to the MchSt 40Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 9
OWN 40
0
88.4%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Cody WhiteSimilar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 9
OWN 40
0
87.9%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 9
OWN 40
+2
87.1%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 54 yds , D.J. Moore returns for 2 yds to the Mary 42 MARYLAND Penalty, illegal block (4 Yards) to the Mary 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-2
88.2%
Ty Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 2Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 12
OWN 2
+1
88.3%
Ryan Brand run for 1 yd to the Mary 3Similar
Q3 13:15
3RD & 11
OWN 3
+14
88.5%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 14 yds to the Mary 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
87.7%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 2 yds to the Mary 19Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 8
OWN 19
-3
87.8%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for a loss of 3 yards to the Mary 16Similar
Q3 13:15
3RD & 11
OWN 16
-5
88.1%
MARYLAND Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Mary 11Similar
Q3 13:15
3RD & 16
OWN 11
+7
88.1%
Ty Johnson run for 7 yds to the Mary 18Similar
Q3 13:15
4TH & 9
OWN 18
0
88.2%
Wade Lees punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MchSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 18FG
15 plays · 49 yds · 7:1790% → 95%
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
90.3%
Gerald Holmes run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:49
2ND & 2
50
+7
90.4%
Gerald Holmes run for 7 yds to the Mary 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
90.4%
Gerald Holmes run for 4 yds to the Mary 39Similar
Q3 8:49
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+2
90.3%
Gerald Holmes run for 2 yds to the Mary 37Similar
Q3 8:49
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+16
90.0%
Gerald Holmes run for 16 yds to the Mary 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
90.4%
Brian Lewerke run for 7 yds to the Mary 14Similar
Q3 8:49
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+5
90.4%
Gerald Holmes run for 5 yds to the Mary 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
90.4%
Gerald Holmes run for 2 yds to the Mary 7Similar
Q3 8:49
2ND & 0
OPP 7
-16
90.8%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-16 Yards) to the Mary 23Similar
Q3 8:49
2ND & 0
OPP 23
+12
90.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Sokol for 12 yds to the Mary 11Similar
Q3 8:49
3RD & 0
OWN 0
0
89.1%
Lewerke, Brian pass incomplete to Dotson, Matt, PENALTY UMD pass interference off-setting, PENALTY MSU holding off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
-3
94.3%
Brian Lewerke run for a loss of 3 yards to the Mary 14Similar
Q3 2:23
4TH & 0
OPP 14
+5
93.9%
MARYLAND Penalty, RU (5 Yards) to the Mary 9Similar
Q3 1:32
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
95.3%
Matt Coghlin 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:256% → 5%
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
94.3%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 1 yd to the Mary 43Similar
Q3 1:25
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+3
94.3%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 3 yds to the Mary 46Similar
Q3 1:25
3RD & 6
OWN 46
0
94.4%
Ryan Brand run for no gain to the Mary 46Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
95.0%
Wade Lees punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
95.9%
Madre London run for 1 yd to the MchSt 21Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
95.9%
Madre London run for no gain to the MchSt 21Similar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 9
OWN 21
-2
95.9%
Madre London run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 19Similar
Q4 14:51
4TH & 11
OWN 19
0
95.5%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 40 yds, downed at the Mary 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 21TD
8 plays · 59 yds · 2:424% → 12%
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
95.7%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to D.J. MooreSimilar
Q4 12:32
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+5
95.7%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D.J. Moore for 5 yds to the Mary 46Similar
Q4 12:32
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+7
95.8%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D.J. Moore for 7 yds to the MchSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+21
95.6%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Taivon Jacobs for 21 yds to the MchSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+15
95.0%
Bortenschlager pass incomplete to Jacobs, T., PENALTY MSU pass interference 15 yards to the MSU11, 1ST DOWN UMD, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-1
95.0%
Max Bortenschlager sacked by Kenny Willekes for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 12Similar
Q4 12:32
2ND & 11
OPP 12
+8
95.1%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Taivon Jacobs for 8 yds to the MchSt 4Similar
Q4 9:50
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+4
88.2%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 4 yds for a TD, (Henry Darmstadter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0090% → 89%
Q4 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
90.4%
LJ Scott run for 7 yds to the Mary 46Similar
Q4 9:43
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+4
90.8%
LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the Mary 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
90.6%
LJ Scott run for 1 yd to the Mary 41Similar
Q4 9:43
2ND & 9
OPP 41
0
90.6%
LJ Scott run for no gain to the Mary 41Similar
Q4 9:43
3RD & 9
OPP 41
0
90.0%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Matt SokolSimilar
Q4 9:43
4TH & 9
OPP 41
0
89.3%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 28 yds, downed at the Mary 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 23MISSED FG
15 plays · 69 yds · 3:457% → 6%
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
93.5%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to Lorenzo Harrison IIISimilar
Q4 6:16
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+20
93.4%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D.J. Moore for 20 yds to the Mary 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
92.6%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D.J. Moore for 8 yds to the Mary 41Similar
Q4 6:16
2ND & 2
OWN 41
-2
92.0%
Max Bortenschlager sacked by Joe Bachie and Chris Frey for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 39Similar
Q4 6:16
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+8
92.1%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D.J. Moore for 8 yds to the Mary 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
91.9%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to D.J. Moore, broken up by Justin LayneSimilar
Q4 6:16
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+20
91.8%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D.J. Moore for 20 yds to the MchSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
90.8%
Max Bortenschlager run for 6 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+9
92.9%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Taivon Jacobs for 9 yds to the MchSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
92.9%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to D.J. Moore, broken up by Justin LayneSimilar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
93.2%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to Lorenzo Harrison III, broken up by Chris FreySimilar
Q4 2:43
3RD & 10
OPP 18
0
93.5%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to Jake Funk, broken up by Naquan JonesSimilar
Q4 2:31
4TH & 10
OPP 18
+36
94.2%
Henry Darmstadter 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 24END OF GAME
8 plays · 10 yds · 0:1696% → 98%
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
95.5%
Gerald Holmes run for 3 yds to the MchSt 23Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+6
96.0%
LJ Scott run for 6 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+5
98.4%
LJ Scott run for 5 yds to the MchSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-2
98.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 32Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 12
OWN 32
-2
98.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:50
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 4 yds for a TD, (Henry Darmstadter KICK)
-6.9
KEY PLAY · Q3 2:23
Timeout MARYLAND, clock 02:23
+5.2
KEY PLAY · Q4 6:16
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to Lorenzo Harrison III
+4.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com