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MSU

Michigan State 3 at Ohio State 48

OSU
2017 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2017 · Ohio Stadium
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Win probability · OSU
modelOSU aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playOSU scoreMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Antonio Williams run for 1 yd to the OhSt 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+41.5+20.80−20.8−41.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 8:14: Mike Weber run for 47 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK) — OSU win probability +0.8 pts (now 91%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 0:17: J.T. Barrett run for 4 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK) — OSU win probability +2.4 pts (now 92%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 11:35: J.T. Barrett run for 4 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK) — OSU win probability +3.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 9:21: J.T. Barrett pass complete to J.K. Dobbins for 8 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK) — OSU win probability +1.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 14:06: J.T. Barrett pass complete to Binjimen Victor for 48 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK) — OSU win probability +0.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4MSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 11:37MSU 4th & 2 at OSU 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    13.5%−0.2
    28% to make
    Punt
    13.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:33MSU 4th & 19 at OSU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.0%−0.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:09MSU 4th & 12 at MSU 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:11OSU 4th & 21 at OSU 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.5%−0.6
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:12MSU 4th & 11 at MSU 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:47MSU 4th & 10 at MSU 5, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%−0.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:27MSU 4th & 9 at MSU 39, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:10MSU 4th & 1 at MSU 31, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.4%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:53MSU 4th & 9 at MSU 23, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:17OSU 4th & 10 at MSU 10, up 39
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.5%
    88% to make
    Punt
    99.1%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:36MSU 4th & 4 at MSU 43, down 42
    Close callPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:00OSU 4th & 6 at MSU 11, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%
    87% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:07MSU 4th & 5 at MSU 25, down 45
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:44OSU 4th & 3 at OSU 49, up 45
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:02MSU 4th & 10 at OSU 14, down 45
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%
    84% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 8:14OSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:17OSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:35OSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:21OSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:16OSU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 14:06OSU Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSUDrive 1PUNT
11 plays · 27 yds · 5:279% → 10%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
91.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 4 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+20
91.1%
LJ Scott run for 20 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
90.9%
Gerald Holmes run for 3 yds to the OhSt 48Similar
Q1 12:54
2ND & 7
OPP 48
-11
90.7%
Brian Lewerke sacked by Malik Harrison for a loss of 11 yards to the MchSt 41Similar
Q1 12:16
3RD & 18
OWN 41
+16
90.6%
Brian Lewerke run for 16 yds to the OhSt 43Similar
Q1 11:37
4TH & 2
OPP 43
+4
90.4%
Brian Lewerke run for 4 yds to the OhSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
90.1%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Matt SokolSimilar
Q1 10:58
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+3
90.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Trishton Jackson for 3 yds to the OhSt 36Similar
Q1 10:11
3RD & 7
OPP 36
-12
89.8%
Brian Lewerke sacked by Nick Bosa for a loss of 12 yards to the OhSt 48Similar
Q1 9:33
4TH & 19
OPP 48
0
89.9%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 34 yds, fair catch by K.J. Hill at the OhSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 2TD
6 plays · 86 yds · 1:1990% → 91%
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+10
89.8%
J.T. Barrett run for 10 yds to the OhSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
89.8%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to J.K. Dobbins for 7 yds to the OhSt 31Similar
Q1 8:57
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+15
89.7%
J.K. Dobbins run for 15 yds to the OhSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
89.7%
J.K. Dobbins run for 7 yds to the MchSt 47Similar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 3
OPP 47
0
89.8%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to J.K. DobbinsSimilar
Q1 8:14
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+47
90.5%
Mike Weber run for 47 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:0110% → 10%
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
90.4%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the MchSt 22Similar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 7
OWN 22
0
90.2%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
Q1 7:30
3RD & 7
OWN 22
-5
90.3%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (Jordan Reid) to the MchSt 17Similar
Q1 7:22
3RD & 12
OWN 17
0
90.4%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to LJ ScottSimilar
Q1 7:09
4TH & 12
OWN 17
0
90.4%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 54 yds, downed at the OhSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -11 yds · 1:5890% → 90%
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
90.2%
J.K. Dobbins run for 3 yds to the OhSt 32Similar
Q1 6:41
2ND & 7
OWN 32
-17
90.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 17 yards to the OhSt 15 TEAM fumbled, recovered by OhSt J.T. BarrettSimilar
Q1 6:02
3RD & 24
OWN 15
+3
89.9%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to J.K. Dobbins for 3 yds to the OhSt 18Similar
Q1 5:11
4TH & 21
OWN 18
0
89.6%
Drue Chrisman punt for 52 yds, downed at the MchSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5910% → 10%
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
89.8%
LJ Scott run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 29Similar
Q1 4:29
2ND & 11
OWN 29
0
89.7%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Cody WhiteSimilar
Q1 4:21
3RD & 11
OWN 29
0
89.9%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q1 4:12
4TH & 11
OWN 29
0
90.0%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 44 yds, fair catch by K.J. Hill at the OhSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 6TD
11 plays · 73 yds · 3:5590% → 92%
Q1 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
89.8%
J.K. Dobbins run for 6 yds to the OhSt 33Similar
Q1 3:46
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+3
89.9%
J.K. Dobbins run for 3 yds to the OhSt 36Similar
Q1 3:18
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+25
89.8%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Parris Campbell for 25 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
90.0%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to J.K. DobbinsSimilar
Q1 2:46
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+11
89.9%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to K.J. Hill for 11 yds to the MchSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
89.9%
J.T. Barrett run for 3 yds to the MchSt 25Similar
Q1 2:02
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+8
89.8%
J.K. Dobbins run for 8 yds to the MchSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
89.8%
J.K. Dobbins run for 3 yds to the MchSt 14Similar
Q1 1:14
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+6
89.7%
J.K. Dobbins run for 6 yds to the MchSt 8Similar
Q1 0:52
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+4
89.5%
J.T. Barrett run for 4 yds to the MchSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
91.8%
J.T. Barrett run for 4 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:209% → 9%
Q1 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
91.1%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 5
0
91.0%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q2 14:47
4TH & 10
OWN 5
-5
91.0%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 58 yds , K.J. Hill returns for a loss of 5 yards to the OhSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 8TD
10 plays · 68 yds · 3:1291% → 95%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
91.1%
J.T. Barrett run for 9 yds to the OhSt 41Similar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+8
91.4%
J.T. Barrett run for 8 yds to the OhSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
91.5%
Mike Weber run for 15 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
91.5%
Barrett, J.T. pass incomplete to Dixon, Johnnie, PENALTY MICHIGANST pass interference (Layne, Justin) 15 yards to the MICHIGANST21, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OHIOST.Similar
Q2 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
91.5%
Mike Weber run for 4 yds to the MchSt 17Similar
Q2 13:02
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+5
91.5%
Mike Weber run for 5 yds to the MchSt 12Similar
Q2 12:41
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+6
91.3%
Mike Weber run for 6 yds to the MchSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
91.5%
Mike Weber run for 1 yd to the MchSt 5Similar
Q2 11:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
91.5%
Mike Weber run for 1 yd to the MchSt 4Similar
Q2 11:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
94.9%
J.T. Barrett run for 4 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9FUMBLE
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:136% → 5%
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
94.5%
LJ Scott run for 1 yd to the MchSt 18Similar
Q2 10:34
2ND & 9
OWN 18
-1
94.7%
LJ Scott run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 17Similar
Q2 10:17
3RD & 10
OWN 17
+8
94.8%
Brian Lewerke run for 8 yds to the MchSt 25 Brian Lewerke fumbled, forced by Tyquan Lewis, recovered by OhSt Damon ArnetteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 10TD
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:5695% → 97%
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+13
95.4%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Marcus Baugh for 13 yds to the MchSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
95.9%
J.K. Dobbins run for 4 yds to the MchSt 8Similar
Q2 9:21
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+8
97.4%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to J.K. Dobbins for 8 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 2:483% → 2%
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
97.1%
Gerald Holmes run for 3 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q2 8:28
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+2
97.1%
Gerald Holmes run for 2 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
Q2 8:07
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+6
97.1%
Brian Lewerke run for 6 yds to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
97.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Laress Nelson for 1 yd to the MchSt 39Similar
Q2 6:47
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
97.9%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Hunter RisonSimilar
Q2 6:38
3RD & 9
OWN 39
0
98.0%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q2 6:27
4TH & 9
OWN 39
0
98.1%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 43 yds, downed at the OhSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 12TD
1 play · 82 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+82
98.3%
Mike Weber run for 82 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13INT
11 plays · 46 yds · 4:041% → 1%
Q2 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
98.7%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the MchSt 25Similar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+5
98.7%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 5 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q2 4:59
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+1
98.8%
Brian Lewerke run for 1 yd to the MchSt 31Similar
Q2 4:10
4TH & 1
OWN 31
+2
99.0%
Brian Lewerke run for 2 yds to the MchSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
99.0%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the MchSt 36Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+15
99.1%
OHIO ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Dre'Mont Jones) to the OhSt 49 for a 1ST down OHIO ST Dre'Mont Jones ejected for TargetingSimilar
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
99.0%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Matt SokolSimilar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+17
99.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 17 yds to the OhSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
99.0%
Brian Lewerke pass intercepted Damon Arnette return for no gain to the OhSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 14INT
4 plays · 27 yds · 1:0899% → 99%
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+7
98.9%
J.K. Dobbins run for 7 yds to the OhSt 14Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 3
OWN 14
+5
99.0%
Marcus Baugh run for 5 yds to the OhSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+15
99.1%
Barrett, J.T. pass incomplete to Dixon, Johnnie, PENALTY MICHIGANST pass interference (Scott, Josiah) 15 yards to the OHIOST34, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OHIOST.Similar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
99.1%
J.T. Barrett pass intercepted David Dowell return for 15 yds to the OhSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15END OF HALF
10 plays · 24 yds · 0:591% → 1%
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
99.2%
Cody White run for 5 yds to the OhSt 38Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+7
99.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 7 yds to the OhSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
99.3%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+8
99.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 8 yds to the OhSt 23Similar
Q2 0:14
3RD & 2
OPP 23
+4
99.2%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to LJ Scott for 4 yds to the OhSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
99.3%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Cody WhiteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+37
99.3%
Matt Coghlin 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 16TD
4 plays · 72 yds · 0:4999% → 99%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
99.0%
J.K. Dobbins run for 9 yds to the OhSt 37Similar
Q3 14:36
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+15
99.1%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Marcus Baugh for no gain to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Andrew Dowell) to the MchSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
99.4%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Binjimen Victor for 48 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 2:081% → 1%
Q3 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
99.3%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the MchSt 24Similar
Q3 13:19
2ND & 8
OWN 24
-13
99.4%
Brian Lewerke sacked by Chris Worley for a loss of 13 yards to the MchSt 11Similar
Q3 12:22
3RD & 21
OWN 11
+12
99.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to LJ Scott for 12 yds to the MchSt 23Similar
Q3 11:53
4TH & 9
OWN 23
0
99.5%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 43 yds , K.J. Hill returns for no gain to the OhSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 18FG
8 plays · 56 yds · 2:30100% → 100%
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
99.5%
J.K. Dobbins run for 1 yd to the OhSt 35Similar
Q3 11:06
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+8
99.6%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Parris Campbell for 8 yds to the OhSt 43Similar
Q3 10:57
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+35
99.6%
J.K. Dobbins run for 35 yds to the MchSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+16
99.6%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Parris Campbell for 16 yds to the MchSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
99.6%
J.K. Dobbins run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 7Similar
Q3 10:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-3
99.6%
J.K. Dobbins run for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 10Similar
Q3 9:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
99.6%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Binjimen VictorSimilar
Q3 9:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
99.6%
Sean Nuernberger 27 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 3:360% → 0%
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
99.6%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 5 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
Q3 8:29
2ND & 5
OWN 32
-1
99.6%
Gerald Holmes run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 31Similar
Q3 7:54
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+6
99.7%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Sokol for 6 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
99.7%
Gerald Holmes run for 1 yd to the MchSt 38Similar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+5
99.7%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Hunter Rison for 5 yds to the MchSt 43Similar
Q3 5:49
3RD & 4
OWN 43
0
99.7%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:36
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
99.7%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 47 yds, fair catch by K.J. Hill at the OhSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 20FG
13 plays · 79 yds · 5:36100% → 100%
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+9
99.7%
J.K. Dobbins run for 9 yds to the OhSt 19Similar
Q3 5:09
2ND & 1
OWN 19
+10
99.7%
J.K. Dobbins run for 10 yds to the OhSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
99.7%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Austin MackSimilar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+4
99.8%
J.T. Barrett run for 4 yds to the OhSt 33Similar
Q3 3:50
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+8
99.8%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to K.J. Hill for 8 yds to the OhSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+17
99.8%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Marcus Baugh for 17 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+17
99.8%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Binjimen Victor for 17 yds to the MchSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
99.8%
Mike Weber run for 1 yd to the MchSt 24Similar
Q3 2:01
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+9
99.8%
J.T. Barrett run for 9 yds to the MchSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
99.8%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Binjimen VictorSimilar
Q3 1:20
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+2
99.8%
J.K. Dobbins run for 2 yds to the MchSt 13Similar
Q3 0:29
3RD & 8
OPP 13
+2
99.9%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to J.K. Dobbins for 2 yds to the MchSt 11Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 6
OPP 11
+28
99.8%
Sean Nuernberger 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21INT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:590% → 0%
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.9%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:39
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
99.9%
Madre London run for 2 yds to the MchSt 37Similar
Q4 13:54
3RD & 8
OWN 15
+39
99.9%
Brian Lewerke pass intercepted for a 1ST down Damon Webb return for 47 yds to the OHIOST 16 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Cole Chewins) to the MchSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 22INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 13:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
99.9%
J.T. Barrett pass intercepted, touchback. Justin Layne return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:410% → 0%
Q4 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.9%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Hunter RisonSimilar
Q4 13:28
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+1
99.9%
Darrell Stewart Jr. run for 1 yd to the MchSt 21Similar
Q4 12:57
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+4
99.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Sokol for 4 yds to the MchSt 25Similar
Q4 12:07
4TH & 5
OWN 25
+8
99.9%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 41 yds , K.J. Hill returns for 8 yds to the OhSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:23100% → 100%
Q4 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
99.9%
Antonio Williams run for 1 yd to the OhSt 43Similar
Q4 11:46
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+6
99.9%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Antonio Williams for 6 yds to the OhSt 49Similar
Q4 10:59
3RD & 3
OWN 49
0
99.9%
Dwayne Haskins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:44
4TH & 3
OWN 49
0
99.9%
Drue Chrisman punt for 45 yds, downed at the MchSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 25DOWNS
15 plays · 79 yds · 8:420% → 0%
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
99.9%
Gerald Holmes run for 3 yds to the MchSt 9Similar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 7
OWN 9
+11
99.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 11 yds to the MchSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
99.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Noah Davis for 2 yds to the MchSt 22Similar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+19
99.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Trishton Jackson for 19 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
99.9%
Madre London run for 7 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
Q4 7:39
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+5
99.9%
Madre London run for 5 yds to the OhSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
99.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Hunter Rison for 7 yds to the OhSt 40Similar
Q4 6:19
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+2
99.9%
Madre London run for 2 yds to the OhSt 38Similar
Q4 5:51
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+1
99.9%
Brian Lewerke run for 1 yd to the OhSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+12
100.0%
Lewerke, Brian pass incomplete to Jackson, Trishton, PENALTY OHIOST pass interference (Okudah, Jeffrey) 12 yards to the OHIOST25, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGANST.Similar
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
99.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Madre London for 11 yds to the OhSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-10
99.9%
Messiah deWeaver sacked by Tuf Borland for a loss of 10 yards to the OhSt 24Similar
Q4 3:26
2ND & 20
OPP 24
-10
100.0%
Messiah deWeaver sacked by Chase Young for a loss of 10 yards to the OhSt 34Similar
Q4 2:38
3RD & 30
OPP 34
+20
100.0%
Messiah deWeaver run for 20 yds to the OhSt 14Similar
Q4 2:02
4TH & 10
OPP 14
-1
100.0%
Messiah deWeaver sacked by Chase Young for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 26END OF GAME
3 plays · 5 yds · 2:02100% → 100%
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
100.0%
Antonio Williams run for 3 yds to the OhSt 18Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+1
100.0%
Antonio Williams run for 1 yd to the OhSt 19Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+1
100.0%
Antonio Williams run for 1 yd to the OhSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:35
J.T. Barrett run for 4 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)
+3.3
TD · Q1 0:17
J.T. Barrett run for 4 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)
+2.4
TD · Q2 9:21
J.T. Barrett pass complete to J.K. Dobbins for 8 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)
+1.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com