Try the model
PUR

Purdue 13 at Northwestern 23

NU
2017 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2017 · Ryan Field
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadPUR aheadconfidence bandkey playNU scorePUR score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:52 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 7
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+26.5+13.30−13.3−26.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:45: Clayton Thorson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK) — NU win probability +5.1 pts (now 73%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:16: Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 11 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK) — NU win probability +7.5 pts (now 85%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 9:10: Charlie Kuhbander 19 yd FG GOOD — NU win probability +6.9 pts (now 91%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:26: Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Jarrett Burgess for 21 yds for a TD, (Spencer Evans KICK) — PUR win probability +9.1 pts (now 14%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:32: Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Anthony Mahoungou for 12 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — PUR win probability +4.3 pts (now 10%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NU made the numbers' call on 11 of 13PUR made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00PUR 4th & 6 at PUR 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:55NU 4th & 7 at NU 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.8%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:40PUR 4th & 4 at PUR 28, tied
    Close callPunted · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 11:36NU 4th & 1 at PUR 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    66.7%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 9:59PUR 4th & 8 at NU 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.6%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    33.5%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%
    average punt
  6. Q1 9:00NU 4th & 6 at NU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.8%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.8%
    average punt
  7. Q1 5:30PUR 4th & 2 at NU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    34.3%−0.5
    32% to make
    Punt
    34.4%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q1 2:18NU 4th & 4 at PUR 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    65.7%−0.3
    51% to make
    Punt
    65.4%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 15:00NU 4th & 3 at PUR 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    65.7%−0.2
    75% to make
    Punt
    63.8%−2.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 14:09PUR 4th & 3 at PUR 28, tied
    Close callPunted · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.2%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q2 6:44PUR 4th & 10 at NU 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.9%
    66% to make
    Punt
    23.4%−4.5
    average punt
  12. Q2 6:44NU 4th & 8 at NU 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.9%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.4%
    average punt
  13. Q2 4:42PUR 4th & 7 at NU 49, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.7%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    27.7%
    average punt
  14. Q2 2:02PUR 4th & 1 at NU 4, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.1%
    65% to convert
    Field goal
    26.2%−2.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    20.2%−8.9
    average punt
  15. Q3 9:10NU 4th & 2 at PUR 2, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.2%−1.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    78.4%−8.5
    average punt
  16. Q3 9:07PUR 4th & 10 at PUR 17, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.4%−1.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.0%
    average punt
  17. Q3 8:23NU 4th & 2 at PUR 19, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    91.0%−0.9
    77% to make
    Punt
    85.4%−6.5
    average punt
  18. Q3 5:30NU 4th & 6 at PUR 6, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    86.4%−5.6
    average punt
  19. Q3 2:18NU 4th & 12 at NU 38, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.9%−1.9
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.9%
    average punt
  20. Q4 15:00PUR 4th & 1 at PUR 45, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.5%−1.5
    average punt
  21. Q4 11:49NU 4th & 9 at PUR 19, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.2%−1.0
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.2%
    77% to make
    Punt
    87.4%−5.8
    average punt
  22. Q4 11:40PUR 4th & 23 at NU 49, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.4%−1.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.6%
    average punt
  23. Q4 9:20NU 4th & 8 at NU 13, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.5%
    average punt
  24. Q4 3:50NU 4th & 3 at PUR 36, up 10
    Close callPunted · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.5%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    91.8%−0.6
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.6%−0.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2PUR made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 9:45NU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:16NU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 2:26PUR Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 5:32PUR Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    8.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    8.3%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PURDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
67.5%
D.J. Knox run for 4 yds to the Prdue 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
67.5%
D.J. Knox run for no gain to the Prdue 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
67.5%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete, broken up by Alex MillerSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
67.5%
Joe Schopper punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0068% → 67%
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-3
67.5%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 37Similar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 13
OWN 37
+1
67.4%
Clayton Thorson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 38Similar
Q1 13:55
3RD & 12
OWN 38
+5
67.4%
PURDUE Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the Nwest 43Similar
Q1 13:55
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
67.4%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:55
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
67.4%
Hunter Niswander punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
67.2%
Richie Worship run for 4 yds to the Prdue 26Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+2
67.2%
Richie Worship run for 2 yds to the Prdue 28Similar
Q1 12:40
3RD & 4
OWN 28
0
67.3%
Elijah Sindelar pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:40
4TH & 4
OWN 28
0
67.4%
Joe Schopper punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 4DOWNS
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
67.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Macan Wilson for 12 yds to the Nwest 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
67.5%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 46Similar
Q1 11:36
2ND & 8
OWN 46
0
67.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Macan Wilson, broken up by T.J. McCollumSimilar
Q1 11:36
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+7
67.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Jeremy Larkin for 7 yds to the Prdue 47Similar
Q1 11:36
4TH & 1
OPP 47
-7
67.3%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 7 yards to the Nwest 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0034% → 33%
Q1 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
66.4%
Elijah Sindelar pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:59
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
66.4%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete, broken up by Paddy FisherSimilar
Q1 9:59
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+2
66.7%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Jackson Anthrop for 2 yds to the Nwest 44Similar
Q1 9:59
4TH & 8
OPP 44
0
66.9%
Joe Schopper punt for 38 yds, downed at the Nwest 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0067% → 66%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-2
66.7%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 4Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 12
OWN 4
+5
66.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 5 yds to the Nwest 9Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 7
OWN 9
+7
66.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 7 yds to the Nwest 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-5
66.8%
Clayton Thorson sacked by T.J. McCollum for a loss of 5 yards to the Nwest 11Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 15
OWN 11
+5
66.7%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Nwest 16Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 10
OWN 16
+4
66.4%
Clayton Thorson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 20Similar
Q1 9:00
4TH & 6
OWN 20
0
66.3%
Hunter Niswander punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jackson Anthrop at the Prdue 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 7DOWNS
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0035% → 34%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
65.5%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Jared Sparks for 5 yds to the Prdue 45Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+6
65.3%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Jarrett Burgess for 6 yds to the Nwest 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
65.2%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Jared Sparks for 8 yds to the Nwest 41Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 2
OPP 41
-5
65.1%
Jared Sparks rush for 1 yard to the NU40 (Fisher, Paddy), PENALTY PUR false start 5 yards to the NU46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+3
65.2%
Jared Sparks run for 3 yds to the Nwest 43Similar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+2
65.3%
Jared Sparks run for 2 yds to the Nwest 41Similar
Q1 5:30
4TH & 2
OPP 41
-3
65.8%
D.J. Knox run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 8DOWNS
9 plays · 36 yds · 2:1867% → 66%
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+18
67.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 18 yds to the Prdue 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
67.3%
Jeremy Larkin run for 3 yds to the Prdue 35Similar
Q1 2:18
2ND & 7
OPP 35
0
67.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Macan WilsonSimilar
Q1 2:18
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+3
67.1%
Jeremy Larkin run for 3 yds to the Prdue 32Similar
Q1 2:18
4TH & 4
OPP 32
+5
66.4%
Clayton Thorson run for 5 yds to the Prdue 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
67.5%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Prdue 24Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 24
0
67.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 24
+4
67.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 4 yds to the Prdue 20Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 20
0
66.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Macan WilsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0036% → 35%
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
64.5%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete to D.J. KnoxSimilar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+7
64.6%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Jared Sparks for 7 yds to the Prdue 28Similar
Q2 14:09
3RD & 3
OWN 28
0
64.6%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete PURDUE Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 14:09
4TH & 3
OWN 28
+39
65.5%
Joe Schopper punt for 50 yds , Riley Lees returns for 39 yds to the NORTHWSTRN 33 NORTHWESTERN Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Joe Gaziano) to the Nwest 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 10TD
7 plays · 54 yds · 3:0167% → 73%
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+19
66.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 19 yds to the Prdue 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
67.5%
Thorson, C. pass incomplete to Green, Cameron, PENALTY PUR pass interference (Markus Bailey) 15 yards to the PUR20, 1ST DOWN NU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
67.5%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Prdue 18Similar
Q2 12:46
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+7
67.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 7 yds to the Prdue 11Similar
Q2 12:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
67.5%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Prdue 5Similar
Q2 12:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
67.5%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Prdue 4Similar
Q2 9:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
72.6%
Clayton Thorson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 11MISSED FG
11 plays · 50 yds · 2:5629% → 28%
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
71.1%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Jared Sparks for 2 yds to the Prdue 27Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-4
71.0%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Terry Wright for a loss of 4 yards to the Prdue 23Similar
Q2 9:40
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+18
71.9%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Gregory Phillips for 18 yds to the Prdue 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
70.2%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete to Jackson AnthropSimilar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+24
70.4%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Jared Sparks for 24 yds to the Nwest 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
68.4%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Jared Sparks for 10 yds to the Nwest 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
68.2%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete, broken up by Sam MillerSimilar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
68.5%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete to Gregory PhillipsSimilar
Q2 9:40
3RD & 10
OPP 25
0
69.5%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete to Terry WrightSimilar
Q2 6:44
4TH & 10
OPP 25
+42
72.0%
Spencer Evans 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0073% → 72%
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
72.9%
Justin Jackson run for 6 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q2 6:44
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
73.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for no gain to the Nwest 31Similar
Q2 6:44
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
72.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 5 yds to the Nwest 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
73.5%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 38Similar
Q2 6:44
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
73.7%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Macan Wilson, broken up by Navon MosleySimilar
Q2 6:44
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
72.9%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:44
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
71.8%
Hunter Niswander punt for 33 yds, downed at the Prdue 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 13DOWNS
10 plays · 67 yds · 2:4028% → 30%
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+19
72.1%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Jarrett Burgess for 19 yds to the Prdue 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
70.6%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete to Terry WrightSimilar
Q2 4:42
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+1
71.2%
Markell Jones run for 1 yd to the Prdue 49Similar
Q2 4:42
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+2
71.6%
Elijah Sindelar run for 2 yds to the Nwest 49Similar
Q2 4:42
4TH & 7
OPP 49
+36
72.4%
Joe Schopper pass complete to Ben Makowski for 22 yds to the Nwest 27 for a 1ST down NORTHWESTERN Penalty, personal foul (Montre Hartage) to the Nwest 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
68.8%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Brycen Hopkins for 3 yds to the Nwest 10Similar
Q2 4:42
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+1
68.8%
Markell Jones run for 1 yd to the Nwest 9Similar
Q2 2:02
3RD & 6
OPP 9
+5
69.2%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Jarrett Burgess for 5 yds to the Nwest 4Similar
Q2 2:02
4TH & 1
OPP 4
0
70.3%
Richie Worship run for no gain to the Nwest 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 14TD
9 plays · 96 yds · 1:3373% → 85%
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+7
73.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 7 yds to the Nwest 11Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 3
OWN 11
+27
73.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 27 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+24
74.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 24 yds to the Prdue 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+20
76.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Macan Wilson for 20 yds to the Prdue 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
77.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Cameron GreenSimilar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+7
77.3%
Justin Jackson run for 7 yds to the Prdue 11Similar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+11
84.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 11 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 15END OF HALF
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:1217% → 17%
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
82.8%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Jackson Anthrop for 6 yds to the Prdue 44Similar
Q2 0:02
2ND & 4
OWN 44
0
83.1%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete to Jarrett Burgess, broken up by Nate HallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 16FG
16 plays · 73 yds · 5:5084% → 91%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
83.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 10 yds to the Nwest 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
83.8%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
84.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Garrett Dickerson, broken up by Markus BaileySimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+19
83.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 19 yds to the Prdue 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
84.4%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Bennett Skowronek, broken up by Tim CasonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+3
84.3%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Prdue 39Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+9
83.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Macan Wilson for 9 yds to the Prdue 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
84.4%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+9
84.4%
Justin Jackson run for 9 yds to the Prdue 21Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+1
83.9%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Prdue 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+18
84.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 18 yds to the Prdue 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
84.4%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Prdue 3Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-3
84.4%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Prdue 6Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
83.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 4 yds to the Prdue 2Similar
Q3 9:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
90.8%
Charlie Kuhbander 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+11
89.5%
Terry Wright run for 11 yds to the Prdue 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
89.0%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete to Jarrett Burgess, broken up by Nate HallSimilar
Q3 9:07
2ND & 10
OWN 17
0
89.3%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete, broken up by Joe GazianoSimilar
Q3 9:07
3RD & 10
OWN 17
0
89.5%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete to Jackson Anthrop, broken up by Joe GazianoSimilar
Q3 9:07
4TH & 10
OWN 17
0
89.5%
Joe Schopper punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Riley Lees at the Nwest 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 18FG
11 plays · 50 yds · 2:5392% → 97%
Q3 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+10
92.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Macan Wilson for 10 yds to the Prdue 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+19
92.2%
Jeremy Larkin run for 19 yds to the Prdue 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
92.2%
Jeremy Larkin run for 4 yds to the Prdue 23Similar
Q3 8:23
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+4
92.2%
Jeremy Larkin run for 4 yds to the Prdue 19Similar
Q3 8:23
3RD & 2
OPP 19
0
92.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn NagelSimilar
Q3 8:23
4TH & 2
OPP 19
+12
91.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 12 yds to the Prdue 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
92.2%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Prdue 6Similar
Q3 8:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
92.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Bennett SkowronekSimilar
Q3 5:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
93.7%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Riley LeesSimilar
Q3 5:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
96.5%
Charlie Kuhbander 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 19TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 2:584% → 14%
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
95.9%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Cole Herdman for 5 yds to the Prdue 25Similar
Q3 5:24
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+9
95.7%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Cole Herdman for 9 yds to the Prdue 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
95.7%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to D.J. Knox for 7 yds to the Prdue 41Similar
Q3 5:24
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+16
95.7%
D.J. Knox run for 16 yds to the Nwest 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
95.7%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Jared Sparks for 11 yds to the Nwest 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
95.2%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete to Cole Herdman, broken up by Tyler LancasterSimilar
Q3 5:24
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+4
95.3%
Elijah Sindelar run for 4 yds to the Nwest 28Similar
Q3 5:24
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+7
95.5%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Anthony Mahoungou for 7 yds to the Nwest 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
86.5%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Jarrett Burgess for 21 yds for a TD, (Spencer Evans KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q3 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
91.0%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q3 2:18
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
91.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Bennett Skowronek, broken up by Eddy WilsonSimilar
Q3 2:18
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+13
90.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 13 yds to the Nwest 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
91.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Bennett SkowronekSimilar
Q3 2:18
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+3
91.4%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 43Similar
Q3 2:18
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
91.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Bennett SkowronekSimilar
Q3 2:18
4TH & 7
OWN 43
-5
90.7%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Nwest 38Similar
Q3 2:18
4TH & 12
OWN 38
0
90.7%
Hunter Niswander punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jackson Anthrop at the Prdue 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 21DOWNS
5 plays · 23 yds · 0:219% → 9%
Q3 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+14
91.0%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Jarrett Burgess for 14 yds to the Prdue 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
90.5%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Jared Sparks for 8 yds to the Prdue 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+1
90.3%
Markell Jones run for 1 yd to the Prdue 45Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 45
0
90.5%
Markell Jones run for no gain to the Prdue 45Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
90.8%
D.J. Knox run for no gain to the Prdue 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 22FG
5 plays · 26 yds · 1:5594% → 96%
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+25
94.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 25 yds to the Prdue 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
94.5%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Prdue 19Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 9
OPP 19
0
94.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Bennett SkowronekSimilar
Q4 13:44
3RD & 9
OPP 19
0
94.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for no gain to the Prdue 19Similar
Q4 11:49
4TH & 9
OPP 19
+36
95.5%
Charlie Kuhbander 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 23PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
94.1%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Richie Worship for 4 yds to the Prdue 30Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 6
OWN 30
0
93.8%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete to Cole HerdmanSimilar
Q4 11:40
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+34
93.9%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Jared Sparks for 34 yds to the Nwest 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-8
93.6%
Elijah Sindelar sacked by Trent Goens for a loss of 8 yards to the Nwest 44Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 18
OPP 44
-10
93.7%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Jarrett Burgess for 12 yards to the NU32 (McShepard, M.;Hall, Nate), PENALTY PUR holding (Eric Swingler) 10 yards to the PUR46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 28
OWN 46
+5
94.2%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Terry Wright for 5 yds to the Nwest 49Similar
Q4 11:40
3RD & 23
OPP 49
0
94.1%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete to Jarrett BurgessSimilar
Q4 11:40
4TH & 23
OPP 49
0
94.2%
Joe Schopper punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Riley Lees at the Nwest 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-6
95.9%
Larkin, Jeremy rush for 8 yards to the NU19 (Simeon Smiley), PENALTY NU holding (Butler, J.B.) 6 yards to the NU5, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 16
OWN 5
+8
95.9%
Jeremy Larkin run for 8 yds to the Nwest 13Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 8
OWN 13
0
95.9%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Bennett SkowronekSimilar
Q4 9:20
3RD & 8
OWN 13
0
95.9%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Macan WilsonSimilar
Q4 9:20
4TH & 8
OWN 13
0
95.7%
Hunter Niswander punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Jackson Anthrop at the Prdue 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 25TD
9 plays · 64 yds · 2:285% → 10%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
95.5%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Jared Sparks for 9 yds to the Prdue 45Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 1
OWN 45
0
95.3%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete to Brycen HopkinsSimilar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+5
95.5%
D.J. Knox run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
50
0
95.4%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete to Jarrett BurgessSimilar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 10
50
+8
95.4%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Gregory Phillips for 8 yds to the Nwest 42Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+17
95.2%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Terry Wright for 17 yds to the Nwest 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+17
94.7%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Terry Wright for 17 yds to the Nwest 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-4
94.7%
Elijah Sindelar sacked by Trent Goens and Jordan Thompson for a loss of 4 yards to the Nwest 12Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+12
90.4%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Anthony Mahoungou for 12 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:3793% → 93%
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
93.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 3 yds to the Prdue 40Similar
Q4 5:27
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+1
93.2%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Prdue 39Similar
Q4 5:27
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+3
93.0%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Prdue 36Similar
Q4 3:50
4TH & 3
OPP 36
0
93.4%
Hunter Niswander punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Prdue 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 27INT
14 plays · 61 yds · 2:385% → 4%
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
95.2%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete to Jarrett Burgess, broken up by Kyle QueiroSimilar
Q4 3:47
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+15
95.2%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Terry Wright for 15 yds to the Prdue 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
95.0%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Terry Wright for 10 yds to the Prdue 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
94.5%
Richie Worship run for 5 yds to the Prdue 40Similar
Q4 3:47
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
94.2%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete to Terry WrightSimilar
Q4 3:47
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+6
94.4%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Anthony Mahoungou for 6 yds to the Prdue 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-15
94.3%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Mahoungou for 6 yards to the NU48 (Long, Warren), PENALTY PUR personal foul (Eric Swingler) 15 yards to the PUR31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:47
1ST & 25
OWN 31
+19
95.1%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Gregory Phillips for 19 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:47
2ND & 6
50
+4
93.8%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Gregory Phillips for 4 yds to the Nwest 46Similar
Q4 3:47
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+12
93.8%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Jared Sparks for 12 yds to the Nwest 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-6
93.2%
Elijah Sindelar sacked by Jordan Thompson and Trent Goens for a loss of 6 yards to the Nwest 40Similar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 16
OPP 40
+11
96.3%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Cole Herdman for 11 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q4 1:09
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+6
95.8%
Elijah Sindelar pass intercepted Marcus McShepard return for 6 yds to the Nwest 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 28END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-1
96.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 8Similar
Q4 0:52
2ND & 11
OWN 8
-1
96.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:26
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Jarrett Burgess for 21 yds for a TD, (Spencer Evans KICK)
-9.1
TD · Q2 0:16
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 11 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)
+7.5
FG · Q3 9:10
Charlie Kuhbander 19 yd FG GOOD
+6.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com