Try the model
MICH

Michigan 35 at Maryland 10

MD
2017 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2017 · SECU Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MD
modelMD aheadMICH aheadconfidence bandkey playMD scoreMICH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of GameTD+3.9MD 4.7%Ryan Brand pass complete to TaivonJacobs for 10 yds for a TD, (HenryDarmstadter KICK)AWAY 28 - HOME 10 · Q4 9:46
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:46 · Ryan Brand pass complete to Taivon Jacobs for 10 yds for a TD, (Henry Darmstadter KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+56.0+28.00−28.0−56.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 134Home team on offense−30.4Pregame prior−8.1Score differential−20.7Garbage-time factor−12.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:21: Chris Evans run for 1 yd for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK) — MICH win probability +2.6 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:21: Brandon Peters pass complete to Zach Gentry for 33 yds for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK) — MICH win probability +4.6 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 1:01: Ty Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 18 — MICH win probability +3.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 0:19: Henry Darmstadter 20 yd FG GOOD — MICH win probability +2.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:46: Ryan Brand pass complete to Taivon Jacobs for 10 yds for a TD, (Henry Darmstadter KICK) — MD win probability +3.9 pts (now 5%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MD made the numbers' call on 8 of 11MICH made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00MICH 4th & 7 at MICH 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.6%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:10MD 4th & 5 at MD 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:06MD 4th & 11 at MD 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:47MICH 4th & 2 at MICH 38, up 7
    Close callPunted · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.9%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00MD 4th & 24 at MD 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.8%−1.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:13MD 4th & 7 at MD 30, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.7%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    15.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:16MD 4th & 15 at MD 27, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.2%−0.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:04MD 4th & 1 at MD 30, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.5%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:01MICH 4th & 3 at MD 13, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%−<0.1
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.5%
    85% to make
    Punt
    95.2%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:56MD 4th & 7 at MD 12, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:00MICH 4th & 6 at MD 43, up 28
    Close callPunted · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    96.9%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:28MD 4th & 2 at MICH 25, down 28
    Close callKicked a field goal · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.1%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    1.8%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:28MICH 4th & 11 at MICH 41, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:19MD 4th & 2 at MICH 2, down 28
    Close callKicked a field goal · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.8%−0.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−0.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00MICH 4th & 8 at MICH 27, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:41MD 4th & 3 at MICH 41, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%−0.5
    32% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:41MD 4th & 1 at MICH 28, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%−0.5
    60% to make
    Punt
    -1.0%−1.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MD made the numbers' call on 0 of 1MICH made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 6:11MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:21MICH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:21MICH Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:21MICH Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:46MD Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.1%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:55MICH Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MICHDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
11.7%
Karan Higdon run for 4 yds to the Mich 21Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+9
11.7%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Zach Gentry for 9 yds to the Mich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
11.7%
Karan Higdon run for 6 yds to the Mich 36Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+2
11.7%
Chris Evans run for 2 yds to the Mich 38Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+3
11.7%
Chris Evans run for 3 yds to the Mich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
11.7%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Donovan Peoples-JonesSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+3
11.7%
Kareem Walker run for 3 yds to the Mich 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 44
0
11.7%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 44
0
11.7%
Brad Robbins punt for 33 yds , D.J. Moore returns for no gain to the Mary 23 D.J. Moore fumbled, recovered by Mary D.J. MooreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
13.4%
Ty Johnson run for 5 yds to the Mary 28Similar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 5
OWN 28
0
13.4%
Ryan Brand pass incomplete to Jacquille VeiiSimilar
Q1 11:10
3RD & 5
OWN 28
0
13.3%
Ryan Brand pass incomplete to Taivon JacobsSimilar
Q1 11:10
4TH & 5
OWN 28
+8
13.2%
Wade Lees punt for 47 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for 8 yds to the Mich 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 3TD
10 plays · 67 yds · 4:0486% → 87%
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
13.7%
Karan Higdon run for 3 yds to the Mich 36Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+13
13.6%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Karan Higdon for 13 yds to the Mich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
13.6%
Chris Evans run for 9 yds to the Mary 42Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+13
13.5%
Chris Evans run for 13 yds to the Mary 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
13.5%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Sean McKeon, broken up by JC JacksonSimilar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+3
13.5%
Karan Higdon run for 3 yds to the Mary 26Similar
Q1 10:15
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+21
13.6%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Zach Gentry for 21 yds to the Mary 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
14.7%
Karan Higdon run for 3 yds to the Mary 2Similar
Q1 6:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
13.3%
Henry Poggi run for 2 yds for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-9
14.0%
Ryan Brand pass complete to Taivon Jacobs for 1 yd to the Mary 36 MARYLAND Penalty, Offensive holding (Jacquille Veii) to the Mary 26Similar
Q1 6:06
1ST & 19
OWN 26
-3
13.9%
Ryan Brand pass complete to Taivon Jacobs for a loss of 3 yards to the Mary 23Similar
Q1 6:06
2ND & 22
OWN 23
+6
13.8%
Ryan Brand pass complete to Ty Johnson for 6 yds to the Mary 29Similar
Q1 6:06
3RD & 16
OWN 29
+5
13.7%
Ty Johnson run for 5 yds to the Mary 34Similar
Q1 6:06
4TH & 11
OWN 34
0
13.6%
Wade Lees punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Donovan Peoples-Jones at the Mich 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q1 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
14.3%
Karan Higdon run for 5 yds to the Mich 35Similar
Q1 3:47
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+3
14.1%
Karan Higdon run for 3 yds to the Mich 38Similar
Q1 3:47
3RD & 2
OWN 38
0
14.0%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:47
4TH & 2
OWN 38
0
14.3%
Brad Robbins punt for 42 yds, fair catch by D.J. Moore at the Mary 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 2:3315% → 15%
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
14.7%
Ty Johnson run for 3 yds to the Mary 23Similar
Q1 2:33
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+7
14.7%
Ryan Brand pass complete to D.J. Moore for 7 yds to the Mary 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
14.8%
Lorenzo Harrison III pass incomplete to Ryan BrandSimilar
Q1 2:33
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+16
14.7%
Ryan Brand pass complete to Taivon Jacobs for 16 yds to the Mary 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
15.3%
Ryan Brand pass incomplete to Ty JohnsonSimilar
Q1 2:33
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-14
15.0%
Ryan Brand pass complete to Lorenzo Harrison III for a loss of 14 yards to the Mary 32Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 24
OWN 32
0
15.0%
Ryan Brand pass incomplete to D.J. Moore, broken up by Josh MetellusSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 24
OWN 32
0
14.9%
D.J. Moore punt for 34 yds, downed at the Mich 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 7TD
5 plays · 66 yds · 2:2585% → 88%
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+50
15.0%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Karan Higdon for 35 yds to the MARYLAND 31 for a 1ST down MARYLAND Penalty, roughing passer (15 Yards) to the Mary 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
14.4%
Chris Evans run for 5 yds to the Mary 11Similar
Q2 14:46
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+5
14.4%
Chris Evans run for 5 yds to the Mary 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
14.4%
Chris Evans run for 5 yds to the Mary 1Similar
Q2 12:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
11.8%
Chris Evans run for 1 yd for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 8DOWNS
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
12.7%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 3 yds to the Mary 30Similar
Q2 12:13
2ND & 7
OWN 30
0
12.6%
Ryan Brand pass incomplete to Taivon Jacobs, broken up by Devin BushSimilar
Q2 12:13
3RD & 7
OWN 30
0
12.5%
Ryan Brand pass incomplete to D.J. MooreSimilar
Q2 12:13
4TH & 7
OWN 30
+3
12.5%
Jake Funk pass complete to Jacquille Veii for 3 yds to the Mary 33 MARYLAND Penalty, illegal motion ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 9TD
1 play · 33 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
7.8%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Zach Gentry for 33 yds for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 7 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
9.1%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 4 yds to the Mary 24Similar
Q2 11:16
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+4
9.1%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 4 yds to the Mary 28Similar
Q2 11:16
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+4
9.2%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 4 yds to the Mary 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
9.2%
Ryan Brand pass incomplete to Taivon JacobsSimilar
Q2 11:16
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
9.1%
Ryan Brand pass incomplete to D.J. Moore, broken up by Devin BushSimilar
Q2 11:16
3RD & 10
OWN 32
-5
9.0%
MARYLAND Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Mary 27Similar
Q2 11:16
3RD & 15
OWN 27
0
9.0%
Ryan Brand pass incomplete to Taivon JacobsSimilar
Q2 11:16
4TH & 15
OWN 27
0
9.0%
Wade Lees punt blocked by Josh Metellus blocked by Josh Metellus N/A return for no gain to the Mary 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 11TD
3 plays · 19 yds · 0:5093% → 94%
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+16
7.0%
Karan Higdon run for 16 yds to the Mary 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
6.1%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Sean McKeon for 3 yds for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 12INT
13 plays · 69 yds · 2:105% → 4%
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-6
4.6%
Ryan Brand sacked by Maurice Hurst for a loss of 6 yards to the Mary 15Similar
Q2 8:14
2ND & 16
OWN 15
+4
4.5%
Ty Johnson run for 4 yds to the Mary 19Similar
Q2 8:14
3RD & 12
OWN 19
+11
4.4%
Ryan Brand pass complete to Taivon Jacobs for 11 yds to the Mary 30Similar
Q2 6:04
4TH & 1
OWN 30
+1
3.1%
Jake Funk run for 1 yd to the Mary 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
3.3%
Ryan Brand pass incomplete to D.J. MooreSimilar
Q2 6:04
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+36
3.1%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 36 yds to the Mich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
3.6%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 3 yds to the Mich 30Similar
Q2 6:04
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+21
3.6%
D.J. Moore pass complete to Ryan Brand for 21 yds to the Mich 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
4.3%
Ty Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 10Similar
Q2 6:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
4.2%
Ryan Brand pass incomplete to Taivon JacobsSimilar
Q2 6:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+80
4.0%
Ryan Brand pass intercepted David Long return for 80 yds to the Mary 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 13MISSED FG
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3795% → 94%
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
5.5%
Karan Higdon run for 2 yds to the Mary 18Similar
Q2 2:38
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+5
5.5%
Karan Higdon run for 5 yds to the Mary 13Similar
Q2 2:38
3RD & 3
OPP 13
0
5.6%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Sean McKeonSimilar
Q2 1:01
4TH & 3
OPP 13
+31
5.7%
Quinn Nordin 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
2.0%
Ty Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 18Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+1
2.0%
Ty Johnson run for 1 yd to the Mary 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+8
3.3%
Ryan Brand pass complete to D.J. Moore for 8 yds to the Mary 17Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 2
OWN 17
0
3.1%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for no gain to the Mary 17Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 2
OWN 17
-5
3.1%
MARYLAND Penalty, false start (Derwin Gray) to the Mary 12Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 7
OWN 12
0
3.3%
Ryan Brand pass incomplete to D.J. MooreSimilar
Q3 14:56
4TH & 7
OWN 12
0
3.3%
Wade Lees punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Donovan Peoples-Jones at the Mary 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0097% → 96%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-2
3.2%
Kareem Walker run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 49Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 12
OPP 49
0
3.3%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Chris EvansSimilar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 12
OPP 49
+6
3.4%
Brandon Peters run for 6 yds to the Mary 43Similar
Q3 13:00
4TH & 6
OPP 43
0
3.8%
Brad Robbins punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 17MISSED FG
7 plays · 55 yds · 3:523% → 4%
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+26
3.4%
Ryan Brand run for 26 yds to the Mary 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
3.6%
Ty Johnson run for 1 yd to the Mary 47Similar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+20
3.6%
Ty Johnson run for 20 yds to the Mich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
4.0%
Ryan Brand run for 5 yds to the Mich 28Similar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+2
3.8%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 2 yds to the Mich 26Similar
Q3 11:20
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+1
3.8%
Jake Funk run for 1 yd to the Mich 25Similar
Q3 7:28
4TH & 2
OPP 25
+43
3.6%
Henry Darmstadter 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+16
2.0%
Kareem Walker run for 16 yds to the Mich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
1.9%
Kareem Walker run for 2 yds to the Mich 44Similar
Q3 7:28
2ND & 8
OWN 44
-3
1.9%
Chris Evans run for a loss of 3 yards to the Mich 41Similar
Q3 7:28
3RD & 11
OWN 41
0
2.0%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Henry PoggiSimilar
Q3 7:28
4TH & 11
OWN 41
0
2.2%
Brad Robbins punt for 46 yds, fair catch by D.J. Moore at the Mary 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 19FG
11 plays · 85 yds · 5:063% → 1%
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
2.8%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 4 yds to the Mary 17Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+5
2.8%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 5 yds to the Mary 22Similar
Q3 5:25
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+28
2.9%
Ty Johnson run for 28 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
50
+6
3.1%
Ryan Brand run for 6 yds to the Mich 44Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+2
3.2%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 2 yds to the Mich 42Similar
Q3 5:25
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+26
3.3%
Ryan Brand pass complete to Taivon Jacobs for 26 yds to the Mich 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+11
3.4%
Ryan Brand pass complete to D.J. Moore for 11 yds to the Mich 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
3.2%
Ryan Brand pass complete to Taivon Jacobs for 4 yds to the Mich 1Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
3.1%
Jake Funk run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 2Similar
Q3 5:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
3.2%
Ryan Brand pass incomplete to D.J. MooreSimilar
Q3 0:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
0.8%
Henry Darmstadter 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:1499% → 99%
Q3 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.7%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Donovan Peoples-JonesSimilar
Q3 0:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
0.7%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Eddie McDoom for 2 yds to the Mich 27Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
0.7%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
0.8%
Brad Robbins punt for 48 yds, downed at the Mary 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 21TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:551% → 5%
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
0.6%
Ryan Brand pass complete to Taivon Jacobs for 27 yds to the Mich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
0.7%
Ryan Brand pass incomplete to D.J. Moore, broken up by David LongSimilar
Q4 14:41
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
0.7%
Ryan Brand run for no gain to the Mich 48Similar
Q4 14:41
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+7
0.6%
Ryan Brand pass complete to D.J. Moore for 7 yds to the Mich 41Similar
Q4 14:41
4TH & 3
OPP 41
+4
0.7%
Ryan Brand pass complete to D.J. Moore for 4 yds to the Mich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
0.7%
MARYLAND Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Mich 42Similar
Q4 14:41
1ST & 15
OPP 42
-1
0.6%
Ty Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 43Similar
Q4 14:41
2ND & 16
OPP 43
0
0.5%
Ryan Brand pass incomplete to Lorenzo Harrison IIISimilar
Q4 14:41
3RD & 16
OPP 43
+15
0.5%
Ryan Brand pass complete to Jahrvis Davenport for 15 yds to the Mich 28Similar
Q4 14:41
4TH & 1
OPP 28
+4
0.7%
Ty Johnson run for 4 yds to the Mich 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+14
0.7%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 14 yds to the Mich 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
4.7%
Ryan Brand pass complete to Taivon Jacobs for 10 yds for a TD, (Henry Darmstadter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 22TD
12 plays · 65 yds · 4:5197% → 100%
Q4 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
3.0%
Kareem Walker run for 3 yds to the Mich 38Similar
Q4 9:46
2ND & 7
OWN 38
-5
2.8%
Chris Evans run for a loss of 5 yards to the Mich 33Similar
Q4 8:29
3RD & 12
OWN 33
+20
2.8%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Chris Evans for 20 yds to the Mary 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
2.2%
Chris Evans run for 2 yds to the Mary 45Similar
Q4 7:49
2ND & 8
OPP 45
-2
2.2%
Chris Evans run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 47Similar
Q4 7:49
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+14
2.2%
Peters, Brandon pass incomplete to Peoples-J, D., PENALTY UMD pass interference (Davis, R.) 14 yards to the UMD33, 1ST DOWN MICH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
2.1%
Kareem Walker run for 2 yds to the Mary 31Similar
Q4 7:49
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+14
2.1%
Chris Evans run for 14 yds to the Mary 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
0.1%
Chris Evans run for 17 yds for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 23INT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
0.2%
Ryan Brand pass incomplete to Taivon JacobsSimilar
Q4 4:49
2ND & 10
OWN 0
0
0.2%
Brand, R. pass complete to Moore, D. for no gain to the UMD26 (Kinnel, Tyree), PENALTY UMD personal foul off-setting, PENALTY MICH personal foul off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:49
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
0.2%
Ryan Brand pass incomplete to Taivon JacobsSimilar
Q4 4:49
3RD & 10
OWN 26
-5
0.2%
MARYLAND Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Mary 21Similar
Q4 4:49
3RD & 15
OWN 21
+22
0.2%
Ryan Brand pass intercepted Khaleke Hudson return for 22 yds to the Mary 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 24END OF GAME
8 plays · 11 yds · 2:31100% → 100%
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-1
0.1%
Kareem Walker run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 20Similar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 11
OPP 20
+2
0.2%
O'Maury Samuels run for 2 yds to the Mary 18Similar
Q4 4:21
3RD & 9
OPP 18
-1
0.2%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Chris Evans for 9 yds to the Mary 9 MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive holding (Patrick Kugler) to the Mary 19Similar
Q4 4:21
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+14
0.2%
Chris Evans run for 14 yds to the Mary 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 6Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 7Similar
Q4 1:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:21
Brandon Peters pass complete to Zach Gentry for 33 yds for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK)
-4.6
TD · Q4 9:46
Ryan Brand pass complete to Taivon Jacobs for 10 yds for a TD, (Henry Darmstadter KICK)
+3.9
KEY PLAY · Q2 1:01
Ty Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 18
-3.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com