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IU

Indiana 24 at Illinois 14

ILL
2017 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2017 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
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Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadIU aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scoreIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:35 · Blake Hayes punt for 49 yds , Rashard Fant returns for 13 yds to the Illin 41 Rashard Fant fumbled, recovered by Ind Rashard Fant
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+39.5+19.80−19.8−39.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 161Pregame prior−4.2Home team on offense−6.2Score differential−1.7Garbage-time factor−4.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:30: Morgan Ellison run for 2 yds for a TD, (Griffin Oakes KICK) — IU win probability +7.5 pts (now 75%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:48: Richard Lagow pass complete to Ian Thomas for 4 yds for a TD, (Griffin Oakes KICK) — IU win probability +7.3 pts (now 84%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 14:42: Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Louis Dorsey for 77 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK) — ILL win probability +9.7 pts (now 28%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:59: Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Caleb Reams for 14 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK) — ILL win probability +20.9 pts (now 44%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  5. TD · Q4 5:45: Richard Lagow pass complete to Simmie Cobbs Jr. for 5 yds for a TD, (Griffin Oakes KICK) ILLINOIS Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined — IU win probability +17.1 pts (now 91%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 9 of 11IU made the numbers' call on 7 of 14
  1. Q1 15:00IU 4th & 10 at ILL 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.2%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    73.2%
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    73.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:16ILL 4th & 5 at ILL 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:11IU 4th & 8 at ILL 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.9%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:45ILL 4th & 1 at ILL 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.4%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:09IU 4th & 4 at IU 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.0%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:04ILL 4th & 11 at ILL 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−0.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00ILL 4th & 4 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.5%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:54IU 4th & 9 at ILL 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.5%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 11:31ILL 4th & 13 at ILL 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.0%−1.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 9:29IU 4th & 4 at ILL 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    64.2%−0.9
    36% to make
    Punt
    64.4%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q2 6:30ILL 4th & 12 at IU 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%−0.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    26.9%−1.0
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    27.9%
    average punt
  12. Q2 3:04IU 4th & 1 at ILL 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    71.8%−2.0
    28% to make
    Punt
    71.9%−1.9
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:25ILL 4th & 3 at ILL 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%−0.4
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 14:42IU 4th & 10 at IU 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.1%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.0%
    average punt
  15. Q3 13:31ILL 4th & 16 at ILL 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.9%−3.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.3%
    average punt
  16. Q3 11:24IU 4th & 2 at ILL 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    71.8%−2.7
    32% to make
    Punt
    72.4%−2.1
    average punt
  17. Q3 9:39ILL 4th & 13 at IU 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%−2.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.5%
    average punt
  18. Q3 5:13IU 4th & 4 at ILL 10, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.0%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.6%−0.4
    88% to make
    Punt
    65.4%−9.6
    average punt
  19. Q3 5:13ILL 4th & 7 at ILL 47, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.4%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.9%
    average punt
  20. Q4 15:00IU 4th & 1 at IU 34, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.0%−1.7
    average punt
  21. Q4 10:42IU 4th & 2 at ILL 42, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.8 ptsPunted · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    61.6%−7.0
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    63.8%−4.8
    average punt
  22. Q4 9:35ILL 4th & 6 at ILL 5, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%−1.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.0%
    average punt
  23. Q4 8:37IU 4th & 1 at ILL 20, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    64.4%−4.8
    75% to make
    Punt
    48.5%−20.6
    average punt
  24. Q4 3:58IU 4th & 2 at ILL 48, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.0%−1.2
    average punt
  25. Q4 2:56IU 4th & 15 at ILL 40, up 10
    Close callPunted · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.4%−0.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    91.0%
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    90.8%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ILL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2IU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 6:30IU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:48IU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 14:42ILL Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 12:59ILL Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.8%−0.6
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:45IU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IUDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 41 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
25.5%
Morgan Ellison run for no gain to the Ind 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
25.5%
Richard Lagow pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+11
25.5%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Simmie Cobbs Jr. for 11 yds to the Ind 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
25.5%
Morgan Ellison run for 6 yds to the Ind 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+24
25.5%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Luke Timian for 24 yds to the Illin 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
25.5%
Whop Philyor run for no gain to the Illin 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-7
25.5%
Richard Lagow sacked by Kenyon Jackson for a loss of 7 yards to the Illin 41Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 17
OPP 41
+7
25.5%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Ian Thomas for 7 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 10
OPP 34
0
25.5%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 34 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
27.3%
Jeff George Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:16
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
27.3%
Kendrick Foster run for 5 yds to the Illin 25Similar
Q1 11:16
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
27.2%
Jeff George Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:16
4TH & 5
OWN 25
+10
27.1%
Blake Hayes punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ind 37 , Luke Timian returns for 10 yds to the Ind 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q1 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
27.6%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Luke Timian for 12 yds to the Ind 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-15
27.4%
Lagow, Richard pass incomplete to Cobbs, Simmie, PENALTY IND pass interference (Cobbs, Simmie) 15 yards to the IND34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:11
1ST & 25
OWN 34
+4
27.8%
Morgan Ellison run for 4 yds to the Ind 38Similar
Q1 10:11
2ND & 21
OWN 38
+13
27.7%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Luke Timian for 13 yds to the Illin 49Similar
Q1 10:11
3RD & 8
OPP 49
0
27.5%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Luke Timian, broken up by James CrawfordSimilar
Q1 10:11
4TH & 8
OPP 49
0
27.8%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
28.4%
Kendrick Foster run for 7 yds to the Illin 16Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 3
OWN 16
+8
28.4%
Kendrick Foster run for 8 yds to the Illin 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
28.4%
Jeff George Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+5
28.4%
Kendrick Foster run for 5 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q1 8:45
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+4
28.3%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Caleb Reams for 4 yds to the Illin 33Similar
Q1 8:45
4TH & 1
OWN 33
+3
28.2%
Blake Hayes punt for 53 yds , Luke Timian returns for 3 yds to the Ind 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-2
29.6%
Richard Lagow run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ind 15Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 12
OWN 15
+17
29.7%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Whop Philyor for 17 yds to the Ind 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
29.4%
Morgan Ellison run for 3 yds to the Ind 35Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
29.3%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Simmie Cobbs Jr.Similar
Q1 6:09
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+3
29.6%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Simmie Cobbs Jr. for 3 yds to the Ind 38Similar
Q1 6:09
4TH & 4
OWN 38
0
29.8%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
30.8%
Jeff George Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:04
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+7
30.7%
Kendrick Foster run for 7 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q1 4:04
3RD & 3
OWN 29
-8
30.5%
Jeff George Jr. sacked by Chris Covington and Allen Stallings IV for a loss of 8 yards to the Illin 21Similar
Q1 4:04
4TH & 11
OWN 21
0
30.0%
Blake Hayes punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Luke Timian at the Ind 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 7INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
31.0%
Cole Gest run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ind 31Similar
Q1 2:39
2ND & 12
OWN 31
+7
31.3%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Cole Gest for 7 yds to the Ind 38Similar
Q1 2:39
3RD & 5
OWN 38
0
30.8%
Richard Lagow pass intercepted Jaylen Dunlap return for no gain to the Illin 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2833% → 33%
Q1 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
33.4%
Kendrick Foster run for 4 yds to the Illin 48Similar
Q1 1:28
2ND & 6
OWN 48
-2
33.5%
Kendrick Foster run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 46Similar
Q1 1:28
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+4
32.5%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Kendrick Foster for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
50
0
33.4%
Blake Hayes punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Luke Timian at the Ind 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 42 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
32.3%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Taysir Mack for 5 yds to the Ind 15Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+9
32.3%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Taysir Mack for 9 yds to the Ind 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+17
32.2%
Cole Gest run for 17 yds to the Ind 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
31.3%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Taysir Mack for 6 yds to the Ind 47Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+4
31.0%
Cole Gest run for 4 yds to the Illin 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
30.8%
Cole Gest run for 4 yds to the Illin 45Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 6
OPP 45
-9
30.8%
Richard Lagow sacked by James Crawford for a loss of 9 yards to the 50 yard line Richard Lagow fumbled, , return for 0 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 11
50
+2
31.7%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Ricky Brookins for 2 yds to the Illin 48Similar
Q2 14:54
4TH & 9
OPP 48
0
32.4%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Nate Hobbs at the Illin 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0035% → 34%
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
34.9%
Kendrick Foster run for 6 yds to the Illin 20Similar
Q2 11:31
2ND & 4
OWN 20
+2
35.1%
Kendrick Foster run for 2 yds to the Illin 22Similar
Q2 11:31
3RD & 2
OWN 22
-11
34.4%
Jeff George Jr. sacked by Greg Gooch and Gavin Everett for a loss of 11 yards to the Illin 11Similar
Q2 11:31
4TH & 13
OWN 11
0
33.6%
Blake Hayes punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Illin 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 11TD
10 plays · 45 yds · 2:5967% → 75%
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
32.6%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Simmie Cobbs Jr.Similar
Q2 9:29
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
32.6%
Richard Lagow pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:29
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+6
33.7%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Devonte Williams for 6 yds to the Illin 39Similar
Q2 9:29
4TH & 4
OPP 39
+8
33.8%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Devonte Williams for 8 yds to the Illin 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
32.1%
Richard Lagow run for 1 yd to the Illin 30Similar
Q2 9:29
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+14
32.2%
Devonte Williams run for 14 yds to the Illin 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+9
31.9%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Taysir Mack for 9 yds to the Illin 7Similar
Q2 9:29
2ND & 1
OPP 7
0
31.9%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Luke Timian for no gain to the Illin 7Similar
Q2 9:29
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+5
32.6%
Morgan Ellison run for 5 yds to the Illin 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
25.1%
Morgan Ellison run for 2 yds for a TD, (Griffin Oakes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
27.6%
George, Jr., J. pass incomplete to Dorsey,Louis, PENALTY IND pass interference (Dutra, Chase) 15 yards to the ILL40, 1ST DOWN ILL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-15
28.8%
Foster,K. rush for 2 yards to the ILL42 (Robinson, Jacob;Covington, C.), PENALTY ILL face mask (Palczewski,Alex) 15 yards to the ILL25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 25
OWN 25
+31
27.4%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Trenard Davis for 31 yds to the Ind 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
29.9%
George, Jr., J. pass complete to Davis,Trenard for 16 yards to the IND28, PENALTY ILL IS 5 yards to the IND49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 15
OPP 49
0
28.7%
Kendrick Foster run for no gain to the Ind 49Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 15
OPP 49
-9
28.6%
Jeff George Jr. sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the Illin 42 Jeff George Jr. fumbled, recovered by Illin Jeff George Jr. , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 24
OWN 42
+12
27.2%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Trenard Davis for 12 yds to the Ind 46Similar
Q2 6:30
4TH & 12
OPP 46
0
27.0%
Blake Hayes punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Luke Timian at the Ind 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 13TD
9 plays · 90 yds · 2:1673% → 84%
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+25
26.7%
Cole Gest run for 25 yds to the Ind 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
25.8%
Cole Gest run for 6 yds to the Ind 41Similar
Q2 3:04
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+7
24.9%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Taysir Mack for 7 yds to the Ind 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
24.8%
Cole Gest run for 5 yds to the Illin 47Similar
Q2 3:04
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+4
24.5%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Cole Gest for 4 yds to the Illin 43Similar
Q2 3:04
3RD & 1
OPP 43
0
24.6%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Devonte WilliamsSimilar
Q2 3:04
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+35
25.7%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Simmie Cobbs Jr. for 35 yds to the Illin 8 for a 1ST down ILLINOIS Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:04
1ST & 0
OPP 8
+4
23.8%
Ellison, Morgan rush for 1 yard to the ILL7 (Harding,Dele), PENALTY ILL offside (Nelson,Patrick) 4 yards to the ILL4, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
16.5%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Ian Thomas for 4 yds for a TD, (Griffin Oakes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 0:2319% → 19%
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
18.8%
Kendrick Foster run for 5 yds to the Illin 33Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+3
19.9%
Kendrick Foster run for 3 yds to the Illin 36Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 2
OWN 36
-1
20.2%
Kendrick Foster run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 35Similar
Q2 0:25
4TH & 3
OWN 35
0
19.3%
Blake Hayes punt for 45 yds, downed at the Ind 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
17.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ind 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 16TD
2 plays · 77 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q3 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+77
27.6%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Louis Dorsey for 77 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:0074% → 73%
Q3 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
25.9%
Cole Gest run for 6 yds to the Ind 31Similar
Q3 14:42
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+16
25.0%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Cole Gest for 16 yds to the Ind 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
24.3%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Taysir MackSimilar
Q3 14:42
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
24.3%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Ian Thomas, broken up by Kenyon JacksonSimilar
Q3 14:42
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
25.0%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Luke TimianSimilar
Q3 14:42
4TH & 10
OWN 47
+4
26.6%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 40 yds , Nate Hobbs returns for 4 yds to the Illin 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0028% → 26%
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-8
27.6%
Jeff George Jr. sacked by Nate Hoff for a loss of 8 yards to the Illin 9Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 18
OWN 9
+8
27.2%
Kendrick Foster run for 8 yds to the Illin 17Similar
Q3 13:31
3RD & 10
OWN 17
-6
26.5%
Jeff George Jr. sacked by Chris Covington for a loss of 6 yards to the Illin 11Similar
Q3 13:31
4TH & 16
OWN 11
+2
26.0%
Blake Hayes punt for 40 yds , Luke Timian returns for 2 yds to the Illin 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 19DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0076% → 75%
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
23.8%
Richard Lagow run for 3 yds to the Illin 46Similar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+2
23.9%
Devonte Williams run for 2 yds to the Illin 44Similar
Q3 11:24
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+3
24.2%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Devonte Williams for 3 yds to the Illin 41Similar
Q3 11:24
4TH & 2
OPP 41
0
25.3%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Simmie Cobbs Jr., broken up by Cameron WatkinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:0030% → 27%
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
29.6%
Jeff George Jr. sacked by Jacob Robinson for a loss of 5 yards to the Illin 36Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 15
OWN 36
+19
27.6%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Louis Dorsey for 19 yds to the Ind 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-6
31.1%
Jeff George Jr. sacked by Robert McCray III for a loss of 6 yards to the Illin 49Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 16
OWN 49
+3
28.5%
Kendrick Foster run for 3 yds to the Ind 48Similar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 13
OPP 48
0
28.1%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Trenard DavisSimilar
Q3 9:39
4TH & 13
OPP 48
+10
26.5%
Blake Hayes punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ind 22 , Luke Timian returns for 10 yds to the Ind 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 21FG
9 plays · 68 yds · 1:5174% → 79%
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+18
25.6%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Morgan Ellison for 18 yds to the Ind 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
23.5%
Morgan Ellison run for 5 yds to the Ind 45Similar
Q3 7:04
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
23.5%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Simmie Cobbs Jr.Similar
Q3 7:04
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+11
23.8%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Devonte Williams for 11 yds to the Illin 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+28
23.0%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Luke Timian for 13 yds to the Illin 31 for a 1ST down ILLINOIS Penalty, Defensive offside (15 Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
22.5%
Morgan Ellison run for 6 yds to the Illin 10Similar
Q3 7:04
2ND & 4
OPP 10
0
22.5%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Luke Timian, broken up by Jaylen DunlapSimilar
Q3 7:04
3RD & 4
OPP 10
0
23.1%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Taysir MackSimilar
Q3 5:13
4TH & 4
OPP 10
+28
20.7%
Griffin Oakes 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 22PUNT
10 plays · 20 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-7
20.9%
Kendrick Foster run for 3 yds to the Illin 30 ILLINOIS Penalty, Offensive holding (Vederian Lowe) to the Illin 20Similar
Q3 5:13
1ST & 17
OWN 20
+4
20.4%
Kendrick Foster run for 4 yds to the Illin 24Similar
Q3 5:13
2ND & 13
OWN 24
0
20.3%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Caleb ReamsSimilar
Q3 5:13
3RD & 13
OWN 24
+9
19.4%
George, Jr., J. pass incomplete to Dorsey,Louis, PENALTY IND holding (Brown, Andre) 9 yards to the ILL33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:13
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+11
20.5%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Louis Dorsey for 11 yds to the Illin 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
22.1%
Kendrick Foster run for 1 yd to the Illin 45Similar
Q3 5:13
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+6
22.0%
Kendrick Foster run for 6 yds to the Ind 49Similar
Q3 5:13
3RD & 3
OPP 49
-4
22.7%
Kendrick Foster run for a loss of 4 yards to the Illin 47Similar
Q3 5:13
4TH & 7
OWN 47
0
20.5%
Blake Hayes punt for 28 yds, downed at the Ind 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3580% → 79%
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
19.9%
Cole Gest run for 7 yds to the Ind 32Similar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-2
19.3%
Cole Gest run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ind 30Similar
Q3 1:35
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
20.0%
Richard Lagow run for 4 yds to the Ind 34Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
20.6%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Nate Hobbs at the Illin 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 24TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 1:5419% → 44%
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+25
19.2%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 25 yds to the ILLINOIS 49 for a 1ST down INDIANA Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
21.7%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Trenard Davis for 9 yds to the Ind 40Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+17
22.0%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 17 yds to the Ind 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
23.3%
Jeff George Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+9
23.2%
Kendrick Foster run for 9 yds to the Ind 14Similar
Q4 12:59
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+14
44.1%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Caleb Reams for 14 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 25PUNT
12 plays · 33 yds · 2:1764% → 68%
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
35.9%
Luke Timian run for 4 yds to the Ind 29Similar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
35.0%
Cole Gest run for 1 yd to the Ind 30Similar
Q4 12:59
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+9
36.3%
Lagow, Richard pass incomplete to Mack, Taysir (Nelson,Patrick), PENALTY ILL pass interference (Nelson,Patrick) 9 yards to the IND39, 1ST DOWN IND, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
33.3%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Taysir Mack for 8 yds to the Ind 47Similar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+1
32.2%
Cole Gest run for 1 yd to the Ind 48Similar
Q4 12:59
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+2
33.1%
Morgan Ellison run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
50
0
32.2%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Luke TimianSimilar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 10
50
+7
29.2%
Cole Gest run for 7 yds to the Illin 43Similar
Q4 10:42
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+1
29.7%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Ryan Watercutter for 1 yd to the Illin 42Similar
Q4 10:42
4TH & 2
OPP 42
0
31.9%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 41 yds, downed at the Illin 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0037% → 34%
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
37.1%
Kendrick Foster run for 4 yds to the Illin 5Similar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 6
OWN 5
0
36.9%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Ricky Smalling, broken up by Rashard FantSimilar
Q4 9:35
3RD & 6
OWN 5
0
35.3%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Trenard Davis, broken up by Rashard FantSimilar
Q4 9:35
4TH & 6
OWN 5
+13
34.0%
Blake Hayes punt for 49 yds , Rashard Fant returns for 13 yds to the Illin 41 Rashard Fant fumbled, recovered by Ind Rashard FantSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 27TD
8 plays · 41 yds · 2:5272% → 91%
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+12
27.8%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Morgan Ellison for 12 yds to the Illin 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
26.3%
Morgan Ellison run for 1 yd to the Illin 28Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & 9
OPP 28
0
26.5%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Luke TimianSimilar
Q4 8:37
3RD & 9
OPP 28
+8
28.3%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Ryan Watercutter for 8 yds to the Illin 20Similar
Q4 8:37
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+10
30.3%
Morgan Ellison run for 10 yds to the Illin 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
26.3%
Morgan Ellison run for 2 yds to the Illin 8Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
26.3%
Morgan Ellison run for 3 yds to the Illin 5Similar
Q4 5:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
9.2%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Simmie Cobbs Jr. for 5 yds for a TD, (Griffin Oakes KICK) ILLINOIS Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 28FUMBLE
4 plays · 34 yds · 0:0011% → 13%
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+31
11.0%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 31 yds to the Ind 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
13.7%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Ricky SmallingSimilar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-5
13.3%
Jeff George Jr. sacked by Jacob Robinson for a loss of 5 yards to the Ind 44 Jeff George Jr. fumbled, recovered by Ind Tegray Scales , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 29PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1991% → 92%
Q4 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
8.9%
Cole Gest run for 3 yds to the Ind 47Similar
Q4 5:17
2ND & 7
OWN 47
-3
9.0%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Whop Philyor for a loss of 3 yards to the Ind 44 INDIANA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 5:17
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+8
9.5%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Devonte Williams for 8 yds to the Illin 48Similar
Q4 3:58
4TH & 2
OPP 48
0
8.2%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 30INT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
8.3%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Kendrick FosterSimilar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-10
8.2%
George, Jr., J. pass incomplete to Smalling,Ricky, PENALTY ILL holding (DiLauro,C.) 10 yards to the ILL10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 20
OWN 10
+7
8.1%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Kendrick Foster for 7 yds to the Illin 17Similar
Q4 3:50
3RD & 13
OWN 17
0
7.7%
Jeff George Jr. pass intercepted Rashard Fant return for no gain to the Illin 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 31PUNT
8 plays · -5 yds · 0:0594% → 94%
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
6.1%
INDIANA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Illin 40Similar
Q4 3:01
1ST & 15
OPP 40
-4
6.2%
Cole Gest run for a loss of 4 yards to the Illin 44Similar
Q4 2:56
2ND & 19
OPP 44
+5
5.3%
Gest, Cole rush for 2 yards to the ILL42 (Nelson,Patrick), PENALTY ILL offside (Crawford,James) 5 yards to the ILL39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:56
2ND & 14
OPP 39
+4
5.2%
Cole Gest run for 4 yds to the Illin 35Similar
Q4 2:56
3RD & 10
OPP 35
0
5.2%
Cole Gest run for no gain to the Illin 35Similar
Q4 2:56
4TH & 10
OPP 35
-5
5.9%
INDIANA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Illin 40Similar
Q4 2:56
4TH & 15
OPP 40
0
5.9%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 35 yds, downed at the Illin 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 32INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
4.2%
Jeff George Jr. pass intercepted Tegray Scales return for no gain to the Illin 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 33END OF GAME
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-3
2.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:59
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Caleb Reams for 14 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK)
+20.9
TD · Q4 5:45
Richard Lagow pass complete to Simmie Cobbs Jr. for 5 yds for a TD, (Griffin Oakes KICK) ILLINOIS Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined
-17.1
TD · Q3 14:42
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Louis Dorsey for 77 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK)
+9.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com