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Win probability · RUTG
modelRUTG aheadMD aheadconfidence bandkey playRUTG scoreMD score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:45 · Andrew Harte 53 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 12:37: Giovanni Rescigno run for 9 yds for a TD, (Andrew Harte KICK) — RUTG win probability +7.1 pts (now 47%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:15: Max Bortenschlager pass intercepted for a TD Kiy Hester return for 52 yds for a TD, (Andrew Harte KICK) — RUTG win probability +10.1 pts (now 59%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:15: Davidovicz, J. kickoff 56 yards to the UMD9, Leake, J. return to the UMD22 (Fatukasi, O.), PENALTY RU offside (Fatukasi, O.) 5 yards to the RU30, NO PLAY. — RUTG win probability +14.7 pts (now 74%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:07: Ty Johnson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Henry Darmstadter KICK) — RUTG win probability +5.4 pts (now 78%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
- FG · Q3 4:29: Henry Darmstadter 30 yd FG GOOD — RUTG win probability +5.9 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
RUTG made the numbers' call on 2 of 5MD made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
- Q1 8:45RUTG 4th & 9 at MD 34, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.8% before the snapGo for it41.8%−<0.132% to convertField goalTheir call41.8%47% to makePunt41.7%−0.1average punt
- Q1 8:45MD 4th & 7 at MD 48, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 58.3% before the snapGo for it58.4%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call58.4%average punt
- Q1 5:56RUTG 4th & 6 at RUTG 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 42.0% before the snapGo for it42.0%−0.339% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call42.3%average punt
- Q2 11:43MD 4th & 10 at MD 15, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 53.9% before the snapGo for it53.0%−1.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call54.1%average punt
- Q2 7:40RUTG 4th & 4 at MD 32, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 47.9% before the snapGo for it48.1%48% to convertField goalTheir call47.3%−0.751% to makePunt46.4%−1.6average punt
- Q2 1:08RUTG 4th & 10 at MD 44, up 17Close callWent for it · 78.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call77.1%−0.130% to convertField goal76.6%−0.627% to makePunt77.2%average punt
- Q3 11:58RUTG 4th & 3 at MD 45, up 17Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 81.5% before the snapGo for it82.5%52% to convertField goal78.8%−3.725% to makePuntTheir call80.9%−1.6average punt
- Q3 9:44MD 4th & 6 at MD 17, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.0% before the snapGo for it15.1%−1.238% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.3%average punt
- Q3 4:29MD 4th & 6 at RUTG 12, down 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.5% before the snapGo for it10.5%−0.436% to convertField goalTheir call10.9%86% to makePunt1.6%−9.3average punt
- Q4 14:57MD 4th & 6 at MD 29, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.4% before the snapGo for it7.5%−0.539% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.0%average punt
- Q4 3:56MD 4th & 3 at RUTG 32, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.6%53% to convertField goal2.5%−0.151% to makePunt2.1%−0.5average punt
- Q4 0:56MD 4th & 10 at RUTG 15, down 17Close callWent for it · 2.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.7%−0.227% to convertField goal1.9%83% to makePunt1.2%−0.7average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RUTG made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MD made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 1:07MD Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call60.3%97% to makeGo for two60.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:37RUTG Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call43.9%97% to makeGo for two43.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:15RUTG Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call61.8%97% to makeGo for two61.7%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartRUTGDrive 1MISSED FG15 plays · 47 yds · 6:1538% → 40%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-4
38.1%
Gus Edwards run for 6 yds to the Rutgr 36 RUTGERS Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Rutgr 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+5
38.1%
Rescigno, G. rush for 1 yard to the RU46, PENALTY UMD offside defense (Opara, K.) 5 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 2PUNT7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
40.0%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D.J. Moore for 4 yds to the Mary 39Similar
Q1 8:45
3RD & 7
OWN 48
0
39.7%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to D.J. Moore, broken up by Damon HayesSimilar
Q1 8:45
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
40.2%
Wade Lees punt for 39 yds , Hunter Hayek returns for no gain to the Rutgr 11 Hunter Hayek fumbled, recovered by Rutgr Hunter HayekSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 20 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 4TD8 plays · 60 yds · 2:5859% → 64%
Q1 4:05
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+10
40.7%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Taivon Jacobs for 10 yds to the Rutgr 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+43
40.6%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Taivon Jacobs for 43 yds to the Rutgr 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
35.9%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Ty Johnson for 6 yds for a TD, (Henry Darmstadter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 5TD9 plays · 76 yds · 3:2537% → 47%
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+35
37.7%
Giovanni Rescigno pass complete to Jerome Washington for 35 yds to the Mary 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 6PUNT6 plays · 0 yds · 0:4757% → 56%
Q2 11:43
2ND & 8
OWN 17
-2
43.2%
Max Bortenschlager sacked by Elorm Lumor for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 21 Max Bortenschlager fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 11:43
3RD & 4
OWN 21
-6
43.7%
Max Bortenschlager sacked by Sebastian Joseph and Jon Bateky for a loss of 6 yards to the Mary 15Similar
Q2 11:43
4TH & 10
OWN 15
0
44.5%
Wade Lees punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Hunter Hayek at the Mary 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 7FG7 plays · 17 yds · 3:1547% → 49%
MDDrive 8INT TD8 plays · 24 yds · 2:2152% → 41%
Q2 6:53
3RD & 5
OWN 24
+16
49.7%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Taivon Jacobs for 16 yds to the Mary 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-3
47.2%
Max Bortenschlager sacked by Julius Turner for a loss of 3 yards to the Mary 37Similar
Q2 6:53
2ND & 13
OWN 37
+6
48.9%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Taivon Jacobs for 6 yds to the Mary 43Similar
Q2 5:15
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+52
59.1%
Max Bortenschlager pass intercepted for a TD Kiy Hester return for 52 yds for a TD, (Andrew Harte KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 9TD1 play · 0 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q2 5:15
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
-5
73.8%
Davidovicz, J. kickoff 56 yards to the UMD9, Leake, J. return to the UMD22 (Fatukasi, O.), PENALTY RU offside (Fatukasi, O.) 5 yards to the RU30, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 10TD14 plays · 76 yds · 3:5329% → 31%
Q2 5:06
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+16
70.8%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Taivon Jacobs for 16 yds to the Mary 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
69.5%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 14 yds to the Rutgr 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+19
68.2%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Jahrvis Davenport for 19 yds to the Rutgr 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
66.9%
Max Bortenschlager sacked by K.J. Gray and Trevor Morris for a loss of 1 yard to the Rutgr 15Similar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 12
OPP 16
+14
71.7%
Bortenschlager pass incomplete to Jacobs, T., PENALTY RU pass interference (Wharton, Isaiah) 14 yards to the RU2, 1ST DOWN UMD, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
68.7%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 2 yds for a TD RUTGERS Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (Henry Darmstadter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 11INT8 plays · 37 yds · 0:0080% → 79%
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
80.8%
Rescigno, G. pass complete to Edwards, Gus for 2 yards to the RU48 (Davenport, J.), PENALTY UMD holding (Jackson, J.) 10 yards to the UMD44, 1ST DOWN RU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:08
4TH & 10
OPP 44
0
79.2%
Giovanni Rescigno pass intercepted Antoine Brooks Jr. return for no gain to the Mary 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 12TD9 plays · 90 yds · 2:4823% → 22%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
76.7%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to Taivon Jacobs, broken up by Jawuan HarrisSimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+16
77.1%
Ty Johnson run for 6 yds to the Mary 16 for a 1ST down RUTGERS Penalty, Defensive holding (Sebastian Joseph) to the Mary 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
76.6%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to Taivon Jacobs, broken up by Damon HayesSimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+9
76.9%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Jacquille Veii for 9 yds to the Mary 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 13PUNT6 plays · 7 yds · 0:0082% → 81%
MDDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 15 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
MDDrive 15FG9 plays · 29 yds · 3:3418% → 12%
RUTGDrive 16TD12 plays · 77 yds · 4:2690% → 93%
MDDrive 17PUNT6 plays · 4 yds · 0:008% → 8%
RUTGDrive 18TD11 plays · 65 yds · 5:0995% → 96%
Q4 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
95.0%
Giovanni Rescigno pass complete to Hunter Hayek for 8 yds to the Mary 44Similar
Q4 12:39
2ND & 5
OPP 22
-1
95.1%
Giovanni Rescigno pass complete to Hunter Hayek for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 23Similar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+23
96.4%
Giovanni Rescigno pass complete to Gus Edwards for 23 yds for a TD, (Andrew Harte KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 19DOWNS24 plays · 63 yds · 6:294% → 2%
Q4 7:25
2ND & 5
OWN 27
-5
95.8%
Brand, R. pass complete to Jacobs, T. for 8 yards to the UMD35 (Douglas, Ross;Harris, Jawuan), PENALTY UMD illegal formation 5 yards to the UMD22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+15
96.1%
Ryan Brand pass complete to D.J. Moore for 15 yds to the Mary 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
95.8%
Ryan Brand pass complete to Jacquille Veii for 12 yds to the Mary 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:56
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+12
97.3%
Ryan Brand pass complete to D.J. Moore for 12 yds to the Rutgr 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:56
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+2
96.7%
Ryan Brand pass complete to Taivon Jacobs for 2 yds to the Rutgr 33Similar
Q4 3:56
4TH & 3
OPP 32
+4
97.1%
Ryan Brand pass complete to D.J. Moore for 4 yds to the Rutgr 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
96.7%
Ryan Brand pass incomplete to Taivon Jacobs, broken up by Kiy HesterSimilar
Q4 3:56
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+4
96.9%
Ryan Brand pass complete to Taivon Jacobs for 4 yds to the Rutgr 24Similar
Q4 1:24
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+9
97.5%
Ryan Brand pass complete to D.J. Moore for 9 yds to the Rutgr 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-10
97.4%
Brand, R. pass complete to Jacobs, T. for 15 yards to the RU0, clock 01:08, PENALTY UMD holding (Gray, D.) 10 yards to the RU25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:08
1ST & 20
OPP 25
0
97.7%
Ryan Brand pass incomplete to Taivon Jacobs, broken up by Kiy HesterSimilar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 20
OPP 25
0
97.7%
Ryan Brand pass incomplete to DJ Turner, broken up by Jawuan HarrisSimilar
Q4 0:56
3RD & 20
OPP 25
+10
97.7%
Ryan Brand pass complete to D.J. Moore for 10 yds to the Rutgr 15Similar
Q4 0:56
4TH & 10
OPP 15
0
97.8%
Ryan Brand pass incomplete to D.J. Moore, broken up by Isaiah WhartonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 20END OF GAME5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0599% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:15
Davidovicz, J. kickoff 56 yards to the UMD9, Leake, J. return to the UMD22 (Fatukasi, O.), PENALTY RU offside (Fatukasi, O.) 5 yards to the RU30, NO PLAY.
+14.7
TD · Q2 5:15
Max Bortenschlager pass intercepted for a TD Kiy Hester return for 52 yds for a TD, (Andrew Harte KICK)
+10.1
TD · Q2 12:37
Giovanni Rescigno run for 9 yds for a TD, (Andrew Harte KICK)
+7.1