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PSU

Penn State 24 at Michigan State 27

MSU
2017 · Week 10 · Nov 4, 2017 · Spartan Stadium
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scorePSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:18 · Blake Gillikin punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Cody White at the MchSt 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 71Pregame prior−20.9Home team on offense−5.3Score differential−2.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.4Garbage-time factor−1.7Blowout margin+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:54: Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 33 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +11.9 pts (now 38%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:25: LJ Scott run for 3 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +16.2 pts (now 65%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:00: Trace McSorley pass complete to DeAndre Thompkins for 70 yds for a TD (Tyler Davis KICK) — PSU win probability +25.5 pts (now 69%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 10:56: Matt Coghlin 32 yd FG GOOD — MSU win probability +12.1 pts (now 51%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Matt Coghlin 34 yd FG GOOD — MSU win probability +31.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8PSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 8:40MSU 4th & 2 at PSU 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    29.7%−0.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    29.8%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:42PSU 4th & 8 at MSU 27, tied
    Close callWent for it · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.2%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    67.3%
    62% to make
    Punt
    65.7%−1.7
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:51MSU 4th & 10 at MSU 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:38PSU 4th & 5 at PSU 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:12MSU 4th & 1 at PSU 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    27.3%−2.4
    47% to make
    Punt
    26.6%−3.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:18PSU 4th & 10 at PSU 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.0%−1.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:54PSU 4th & 14 at PSU 3, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.0%−4.3
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:09MSU 4th & 12 at PSU 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.5%−0.4
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    39.5%−0.4
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    39.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:32MSU 4th & 10 at PSU 36, tied
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.6 ptsPunted · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.2%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    41.8%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.3%−1.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:56MSU 4th & 10 at MSU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.4%−2.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:35PSU 4th & 10 at MSU 34, tied
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.0 ptsPunted · 59.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    59.4%
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.4%−1.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:11PSU 4th & 3 at MSU 8, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.9%−1.8
    90% to make
    Punt
    21.4%−15.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:05MSU 4th & 5 at MSU 30, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.8%−1.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:56MSU 4th & 6 at PSU 14, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.0%−2.6
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.6%
    84% to make
    Punt
    25.0%−15.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:05PSU 4th & 3 at MSU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    50.8%−4.4
    54% to make
    Punt
    44.7%−10.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3PSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 5:40PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:28MSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:42PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:54MSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:25MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:00PSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PSUDrive 1INT
9 plays · 28 yds · 1:5181% → 80%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
19.5%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Juwan JohnsonSimilar
Q1 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
19.6%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 16 yds to the PnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
19.7%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 4 yds to the PnSt 45Similar
Q1 14:07
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
19.8%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Mike Gesicki, broken up by Demetrius CooperSimilar
Q1 13:59
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+9
19.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 9 yds to the MchSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
20.0%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 47Similar
Q1 13:11
2ND & 11
OPP 47
0
20.2%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DeAndre ThompkinsSimilar
Q1 13:05
3RD & 11
OPP 47
0
20.4%
Trace McSorley pass intercepted Joe Bachie return for no gain to the MchSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2PUNT
12 plays · 30 yds · 4:1921% → 23%
Q1 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
20.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 4 yds to the MchSt 31Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 6
OWN 31
-5
20.7%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (Cole Chewins) to the MchSt 26Similar
Q1 12:23
2ND & 11
OWN 26
0
20.8%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q1 12:18
3RD & 11
OWN 26
+12
20.7%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to LJ Scott for 12 yds to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
21.2%
LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the MchSt 42Similar
Q1 11:46
2ND & 6
OWN 42
-15
21.3%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Chase Gianacakos) to the MchSt 27Similar
Q1 11:22
2ND & 21
OWN 27
+2
21.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to LJ Scott for 2 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q1 10:40
3RD & 19
OWN 29
+20
21.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 20 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
22.4%
LJ Scott run for 6 yds to the PnSt 45Similar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+2
22.8%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the PnSt 43Similar
Q1 8:45
3RD & 2
OPP 43
0
23.0%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Cody White, broken up by Troy ApkeSimilar
Q1 8:40
4TH & 2
OPP 43
0
22.8%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 35 yds, fair catch by DeAndre Thompkins at the PnSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3TD
7 plays · 92 yds · 2:5477% → 79%
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+15
22.6%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 15 yds to the PnSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
22.9%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the PnSt 24Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+13
23.1%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DeAndre Thompkins for 13 yds to the PnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
23.1%
Trace McSorley run for 1 yd to the PnSt 38Similar
Q1 6:37
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+20
23.3%
Saquon Barkley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 20 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
23.2%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DeAndre Thompkins for 11 yds to the MchSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
20.8%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 31 yds for a TD (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4TD
8 plays · 52 yds · 2:0022% → 27%
Q1 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+18
22.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 18 yds to the PnSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+17
22.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 17 yds to the PnSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+15
23.1%
Lewerke, Brian pass incomplete to White, Cody, PENALTY PENNST pass interference (Haley, Grant) 15 yards to the PENNST2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGANST.Similar
Q1 4:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-10
23.1%
Scott, LJ rush for loss of 1 yard to the PENNST3, PENALTY MICHIGANST holding (Higby, Tyler) 10 yards to the PENNST12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
-5
23.3%
Lewerke, Brian pass complete to Scott, LJ for 12 yards to the PENNST0, PENALTY MICHIGANST ineligible downfield on pass (Jarvis, Kevin) 5 yards to the PENNST17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 17
+10
23.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 10 yds to the PnSt 7Similar
Q1 3:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
26.7%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 7 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 5TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:3675% → 78%
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
25.3%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 9 yds to the PnSt 34Similar
Q1 3:04
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+1
24.9%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the PnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
25.1%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 17 yds to the MchSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
24.5%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Saeed BlacknallSimilar
Q1 2:14
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+19
24.7%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 19 yds to the MchSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
24.4%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q1 1:36
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
24.6%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Juwan JohnsonSimilar
Q1 1:25
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+2
25.1%
Trace McSorley run for 2 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q1 0:42
4TH & 8
OPP 27
+27
22.1%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saeed Blacknall for 27 yds for a TD (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:4123% → 23%
Q1 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
22.6%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Trishton JacksonSimilar
Q1 0:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+21
22.6%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 21 yds to the MchSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
23.6%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 9 yds to the PnSt 45Similar
Q2 14:32
2ND & 1
OPP 45
-9
24.2%
Brian Lewerke sacked by Yetur Gross-Matos and Tyrell Chavis for a loss of 9 yards to the MchSt 46Similar
Q2 13:49
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
23.1%
LJ Scott run for no gain to the MchSt 46Similar
Q2 12:51
4TH & 10
OWN 46
0
22.7%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 34 yds, fair catch by DeAndre Thompkins at the PnSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 3:0177% → 77%
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
23.0%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DeAndre Thompkins for 8 yds to the PnSt 28Similar
Q2 11:57
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+7
22.5%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Jonathan Holland for 7 yds to the PnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
22.8%
Trace McSorley sacked by Raequan Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 33Similar
Q2 11:04
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+3
23.4%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 3 yds to the PnSt 36Similar
Q2 10:15
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+4
23.5%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Irvin Charles for 4 yds to the PnSt 40Similar
Q2 9:38
4TH & 5
OWN 40
+2
23.3%
Blake Gillikin punt for 44 yds , Cody White returns for 2 yds to the MchSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8DOWNS
8 plays · 48 yds · 2:1924% → 25%
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
23.7%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Felton Davis III, broken up by Tariq Castro-FieldsSimilar
Q2 9:27
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
23.7%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Cody White, broken up by Amani OruwariyeSimilar
Q2 9:18
3RD & 10
OWN 18
+25
23.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 25 yds to the MchSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+14
24.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 14 yds to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
25.8%
LJ Scott run for 6 yds to the PnSt 37Similar
Q2 7:58
2ND & 4
OPP 37
0
25.3%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Trishton Jackson, broken up by Tariq Castro-FieldsSimilar
Q2 7:39
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+3
25.2%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Sokol for 3 yds to the PnSt 34Similar
Q2 7:12
4TH & 1
OPP 34
0
24.6%
LJ Scott run for no gain to the PnSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:3978% → 76%
Q2 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
22.5%
Saquon Barkley run for no gain to the PnSt 34Similar
Q2 6:35
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
22.8%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:25
3RD & 10
OWN 34
0
23.6%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:18
4TH & 10
OWN 34
0
24.0%
Blake Gillikin punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Cody White at the MchSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10TD
6 plays · 69 yds · 2:0924% → 38%
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
23.9%
Gerald Holmes run for 3 yds to the MchSt 34Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+11
24.0%
Lewerke, Brian pass incomplete, PENALTY PENNST pass interference 11 yards to the MICHIGANST45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGANST.Similar
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
25.1%
Gerald Holmes run for no gain to the MchSt 45Similar
Q2 4:35
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+7
24.8%
Brian Lewerke run for 7 yds to the PnSt 48Similar
Q2 4:01
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+15
26.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Gerald Holmes for 15 yds to the PnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
38.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 33 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:5068% → 66%
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
32.2%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:13
2ND & 10
OWN 7
-4
32.7%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 3Similar
Q2 3:02
3RD & 14
OWN 3
0
33.7%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:54
4TH & 14
OWN 3
0
34.4%
Blake Gillikin punt for 52 yds, downed at the MchSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 1:0638% → 35%
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-3
37.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to LJ Scott for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 42Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 13
OWN 42
+12
36.2%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Sokol for 12 yds to the PnSt 46Similar
Q2 1:40
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+4
37.8%
LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the PnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-2
38.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to LJ Scott for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 44Similar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 12
OPP 44
0
37.7%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:16
3RD & 12
OPP 44
0
36.6%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:09
4TH & 12
OPP 44
0
34.7%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 13INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
32.5%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1739% → 36%
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
39.4%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
39.3%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:42
3RD & 10
OPP 36
0
38.1%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:32
4TH & 10
OPP 36
0
35.7%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 32 yds, downed at the PnSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+3
33.4%
Saquon Barkley run for 3 yds to the PnSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5438% → 36%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
37.5%
LJ Scott run for no gain to the MchSt 26Similar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
37.5%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:07
3RD & 10
OWN 26
0
36.3%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:56
4TH & 10
OWN 26
0
35.5%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 47 yds, downed at the PnSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 39 yds · 0:5766% → 65%
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
34.3%
Saquon Barkley run for 3 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+36
34.1%
Saquon Barkley run for 36 yds to the MchSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
31.3%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:47
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
31.3%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:43
3RD & 10
OPP 34
0
32.5%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:35
4TH & 10
OPP 34
0
35.5%
Blake Gillikin punt for 25 yds, fair catch by Cody White at the MchSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 18TD
12 plays · 91 yds · 4:3038% → 65%
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
38.3%
LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the MchSt 13Similar
Q3 11:33
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+14
38.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 14 yds to the MchSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
39.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 4 yds to the MchSt 31Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+3
40.9%
Gerald Holmes run for 3 yds to the MchSt 34Similar
Q3 9:29
3RD & 3
OWN 34
-15
40.8%
Lewerke, Brian pass complete to Stewart Jr., Darrell for 11 yards to the MICHIGANST45, PENALTY MICHIGANST pass interference 15 yards to the MICHIGANST19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:10
3RD & 18
OWN 19
+36
38.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 36 yds to the PnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
44.9%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-1
45.0%
Brian Lewerke sacked by Shane Simmons for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 46Similar
Q3 8:15
3RD & 11
OPP 46
+26
42.6%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Hunter Rison for 26 yds to the PnSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+17
47.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Hunter Rison for 17 yds to the PnSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
64.9%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 19FG
13 plays · 71 yds · 4:4944% → 50%
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
56.4%
Trace McSorley run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 20Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 11
OWN 20
+20
57.1%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 20 yds to the PnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
54.8%
Saquon Barkley run for 7 yds to the PnSt 47Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+2
53.4%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 2 yds to the PnSt 49Similar
Q3 5:03
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+13
54.6%
Trace McSorley run for 13 yds to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
54.8%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the MchSt 37Similar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 9
OPP 37
0
55.4%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:55
3RD & 9
OPP 37
+22
56.5%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 22 yds to the MchSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
52.8%
Saquon Barkley run for 3 yds to the MchSt 12Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+4
53.3%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 4 yds to the MchSt 8Similar
Q3 2:15
3RD & 3
OPP 8
0
56.8%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:11
4TH & 3
OPP 8
+26
49.9%
Tyler Davis 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 2:0058% → 57%
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
58.0%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-12
57.5%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Face Mask (12 yards) (-12 Yards) to the MchSt 13Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 22
OWN 13
+2
58.1%
Brian Lewerke run for 2 yds to the MchSt 15Similar
Q3 0:30
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+15
57.1%
Brian Lewerke run for 15 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q3 0:05
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
56.9%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 40 yds, downed at the PnSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 21TD
1 play · 70 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+70
31.4%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DeAndre Thompkins for 70 yds for a TD (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 22FG
12 plays · 45 yds · 3:5938% → 51%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
38.0%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+4
36.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 4 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+14
37.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 14 yds to the PnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+12
40.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Dotson for 12 yds to the PnSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
43.2%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+6
41.6%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 6 yds to the PnSt 23Similar
Q4 11:45
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+5
39.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 5 yds to the PnSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
42.2%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:03
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+4
41.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 4 yds to the PnSt 14Similar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 6
OPP 14
0
38.9%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:56
4TH & 6
OPP 14
+32
51.0%
Matt Coghlin 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 23INT
6 plays · 25 yds · 1:4756% → 61%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
44.2%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 8 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
41.4%
Saquon Barkley run for 4 yds to the PnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
42.5%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 6 yds to the PnSt 43Similar
Q4 8:49
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+7
40.4%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
50
+12
39.3%
Trace McSorley pass intercepted David Dowell return for 12 yds to the MchSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 24INT
6 plays · 43 yds · 1:0251% → 59%
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
51.0%
Brian Lewerke run for 11 yds to the MchSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+17
55.7%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 17 yds to the PnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
57.3%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:38
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+15
56.9%
PENN ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the PnSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
58.8%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:28
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
58.7%
Brian Lewerke pass intercepted Amani Oruwariye return for no gain to the PnSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 25DOWNS
9 plays · 62 yds · 2:5054% → 57%
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
46.0%
Saquon Barkley run for 4 yds to the PnSt 11Similar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 6
OWN 11
-2
46.2%
Trace McSorley sacked by Andrew Dowell for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 9Similar
Q4 5:35
3RD & 8
OWN 9
+13
48.8%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 13 yds to the PnSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
45.4%
Saquon Barkley run for 5 yds to the PnSt 27Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+35
40.0%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 20 yds to the MchSt 47 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
39.2%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-9
40.1%
Trace McSorley sacked by Khari Willis for a loss of 9 yards to the MchSt 47 PENN ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the MchSt 47Similar
Q4 4:20
3RD & 19
OPP 47
+16
45.3%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 16 yds to the MchSt 31Similar
Q4 4:05
4TH & 3
OPP 31
0
43.4%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 26END OF GAME
15 plays · 53 yds · 4:0054% → 97%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
54.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 9 yds to the MchSt 40Similar
Q4 3:03
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+5
58.9%
LJ Scott run for 5 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
59.5%
Brian Lewerke run for no gain to the MchSt 45Similar
Q4 2:03
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+9
57.6%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Hunter Rison for 9 yds to the PnSt 46Similar
Q4 1:38
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+3
60.0%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
61.7%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:53
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+6
61.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 6 yds to the PnSt 37Similar
Q4 0:49
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+15
61.6%
Lewerke, Brian pass incomplete, PENALTY PENNST roughing passer 15 yards to the PENNST22, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGANST.Similar
Q4 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
64.9%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the PnSt 19Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+3
67.9%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the PnSt 16Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+34
96.6%
Matt Coghlin 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:00
Matt Coghlin 34 yd FG GOOD
+31
TD · Q3 0:00
Trace McSorley pass complete to DeAndre Thompkins for 70 yds for a TD (Tyler Davis KICK)
-25.5
TD · Q3 7:25
LJ Scott run for 3 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)
+16.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com