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PSU

Penn State 38 at Ohio State 39

OSU
2017 · Week 9 · Oct 28, 2017 · Ohio Stadium
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Win probability · OSU
modelOSU aheadPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playOSU scorePSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:00 · J.T. Barrett pass complete to K.J. Hill for 6 yds to the PnSt 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 46Home team on offense−3.8Pregame prior+15.2Score differential−2.0Garbage-time factor−1.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:06: Trace McSorley 6 Yd Run (Tyler Davis Kick) — PSU win probability +13.8 pts (now 62%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:25: DeAndre Thompkins 37 Yd pass from Trace McSorley (Tyler Davis Kick) — PSU win probability +15.2 pts (now 79%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:05: Johnnie Dixon 38 Yd pass from J.T. Barrett (Sean Nuernberger Kick) — OSU win probability +13.8 pts (now 30%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:20: Johnnie Dixon 10 Yd pass from J.T. Barrett (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — OSU win probability +22.1 pts (now 38%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. TD · Q4 1:48: Marcus Baugh 16 Yd pass from J.T. Barrett (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — OSU win probability +45.2 pts (now 77%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6PSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 10:11OSU 4th & 15 at OSU 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.2%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:36PSU 4th & 14 at PSU 31, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.7%−1.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:38OSU 4th & 18 at PSU 21, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%−1.5
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.9%
    74% to make
    Punt
    57.3%−3.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:41PSU 4th & 6 at PSU 31, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.4%−0.6
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:00OSU 4th & 8 at PSU 25, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.9%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    59.1%
    66% to make
    Punt
    56.7%−2.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:31PSU 4th & 9 at OSU 41, up 11
    Close callPunted · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.2%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    55.0%−0.2
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    54.9%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:29OSU 4th & 2 at OSU 22, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.4%−1.0
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:37OSU 4th & 12 at PSU 19, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.5%−1.7
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.2%
    77% to make
    Punt
    32.9%−6.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:10OSU 4th & 7 at PSU 46, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    21.7%−1.8
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    23.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:28PSU 4th & 6 at PSU 25, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.4%−1.0
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.4%
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:39PSU 4th & 11 at OSU 43, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.0%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    89.5%−0.9
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    90.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:42PSU 4th & 6 at OSU 6, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.7%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    77.3%−9.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:07PSU 4th & 14 at PSU 11, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.5%−8.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:22PSU 4th & 15 at PSU 36, down 1
    Numbers favored punt by 2.1 ptsWent for it · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.1%−2.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    24.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5PSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 14:45PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:36PSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:40PSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:32OSU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 8:06PSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 4:56OSU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 7:25PSU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:05OSU Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.1%−0.9
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.0%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:20OSU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    24.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    23.7%−0.4
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 1:48OSU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    70.2%−2.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    72.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OSUDrive 2FUMBLE
4 plays · 25 yds · 1:0670% → 70%
Q1 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
70.0%
J.T. Barrett run for 5 yds to the OhSt 30Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+14
69.8%
J.K. Dobbins run for 14 yds to the OhSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
69.6%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Parris Campbell for 6 yds Parris Campbell fumbled, forced by Manny Bowen, recovered by PnSt Koa Farmer , return for 26 yds to the OhSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3TD
5 plays · 23 yds · 1:3731% → 33%
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
69.2%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 5 yds to the OhSt 18Similar
Q1 12:54
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+9
69.0%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 9 yds to the OhSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-4
68.6%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 4 yards to the OhSt 13Similar
Q1 11:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
0
68.3%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q1 11:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
+13
67.4%
DaeSean Hamilton 13 Yd pass from Trace McSorley (Tyler Davis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 1:2068% → 66%
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
67.5%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the OhSt 25Similar
Q1 11:19
1ST & 15
OWN 25
-5
67.3%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Mike Weber for a loss of 5 yards to the OhSt 20Similar
Q1 10:53
2ND & 20
OWN 20
0
66.8%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Marcus BaughSimilar
Q1 10:43
3RD & 20
OWN 20
+5
66.6%
J.T. Barrett run for 5 yds to the OhSt 25Similar
Q1 10:11
4TH & 15
OWN 25
0
66.2%
Drue Chrisman punt for 50 yds, fair catch by DeAndre Thompkins at the PnSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 2:2334% → 36%
Q1 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.0%
Trace McSorley run for no gain to the PnSt 25Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
65.9%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DeAndre ThompkinsSimilar
Q1 9:32
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+10
65.8%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 10 yds to the PnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
64.2%
Trace McSorley run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 33Similar
Q1 8:12
2ND & 12
OWN 33
-2
63.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 31Similar
Q1 7:42
3RD & 14
OWN 31
0
63.6%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Mike GesickiSimilar
Q1 7:36
4TH & 14
OWN 31
+27
63.6%
Blake Gillikin punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OHIOST 27 PENN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the OhSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 6FG
11 plays · 37 yds · 2:5865% → 64%
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
64.7%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the OhSt 37Similar
Q1 7:22
1ST & 15
OWN 37
+10
64.0%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Austin Mack for 10 yds to the OhSt 47Similar
Q1 7:01
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+4
64.3%
J.K. Dobbins run for 4 yds to the PnSt 49Similar
Q1 6:48
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+18
64.2%
J.T. Barrett run for 18 yds to the PnSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
64.4%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 36Similar
Q1 6:18
1ST & 15
OPP 36
+12
63.8%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to K.J. Hill for 12 yds to the PnSt 24Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+11
63.6%
J.K. Dobbins run for 11 yds to the PnSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
63.5%
J.T. Barrett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:41
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
63.5%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to K.J. Hill for no gain to the PnSt 13Similar
Q1 5:25
3RD & 10
OPP 13
-8
63.0%
J.T. Barrett sacked by Curtis Cothran for a loss of 8 yards to the PnSt 21Similar
Q1 4:38
4TH & 18
OPP 21
+38
63.9%
Sean Nuernberger 38 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:4737% → 38%
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
63.1%
Trace McSorley run for no gain to the PnSt 27Similar
Q1 4:14
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-4
63.1%
Trace McSorley sacked by Dre'Mont Jones for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 23Similar
Q1 3:13
3RD & 14
OWN 23
+8
62.6%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 8 yds to the PnSt 31Similar
Q1 2:41
4TH & 6
OWN 31
+16
62.3%
Blake Gillikin punt for 39 yds , K.J. Hill returns for 16 yds to the OhSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 8DOWNS
7 plays · 35 yds · 2:2762% → 60%
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
61.9%
J.T. Barrett run for 6 yds to the PnSt 48Similar
Q1 2:16
2ND & 4
OPP 48
0
62.2%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Johnnie DixonSimilar
Q1 2:07
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+21
61.9%
J.K. Dobbins run for 21 yds to the PnSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-3
62.5%
J.T. Barrett sacked by Shareef Miller for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 30Similar
Q1 1:18
2ND & 13
OPP 30
-1
61.8%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to K.J. Hill for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 31Similar
Q1 0:35
3RD & 14
OPP 31
+6
60.4%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Austin Mack for 6 yds to the PnSt 25Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 8
OPP 25
+6
59.6%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to K.J. Hill for 6 yds to the PnSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 9TD
8 plays · 81 yds · 3:1541% → 57%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
59.3%
Trace McSorley run for 6 yds to the PnSt 25Similar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+10
58.4%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 10 yds to the PnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
58.1%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Juwan JohnsonSimilar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+6
58.2%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 6 yds to the PnSt 41Similar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+11
55.8%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 11 yds to the OhSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
55.0%
Saquon Barkley run for 3 yds to the OhSt 45Similar
Q2 11:51
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+9
54.5%
OHIO ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (9 Yards) to the OhSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
42.7%
Saquon Barkley 36 Yd Run (Tyler Davis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 10TD
7 plays · 63 yds · 1:4948% → 54%
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
47.8%
Mike Weber run for 6 yds to the OhSt 43Similar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+5
47.8%
Mike Weber run for 5 yds to the OhSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+36
47.3%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Austin Mack for 36 yds to the PnSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
48.3%
Mike Weber run for 2 yds to the PnSt 14Similar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+14
56.9%
Terry McLaurin 14 Yd pass from J.T. Barrett (Sean Nuernberger Kick)Similar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 8
OWN 35
-5
54.4%
OHIO ST Penalty, Offensive Offside (-5 Yards) to the OhSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 11TD
5 plays · 23 yds · 0:5948% → 62%
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
52.0%
Saquon Barkley run for 2 yds to the OhSt 21Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 8
OPP 21
0
51.4%
PENN ST Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass ( Yards) to the OhSt 21Similar
Q2 8:10
3RD & 8
OPP 21
+15
52.0%
OHIO ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the OhSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
38.2%
Trace McSorley 6 Yd Run (Tyler Davis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 12TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:0543% → 53%
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
43.2%
J.T. Barrett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
42.7%
J.T. Barrett run for 9 yds to the OhSt 34Similar
Q2 7:23
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+23
43.0%
J.T. Barrett run for 23 yds to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
43.7%
J.T. Barrett run for 3 yds to the PnSt 40Similar
Q2 6:38
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+9
42.9%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Mike Weber for 9 yds to the PnSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
43.7%
J.T. Barrett run for 5 yds to the PnSt 26Similar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+11
43.5%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to K.J. Hill for 11 yds to the PnSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
43.3%
Mike Weber run for 5 yds to the PnSt 10Similar
Q2 5:24
2ND & 5
OPP 10
0
43.7%
Mike Weber run for no gain to the PnSt 10Similar
Q2 4:59
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+8
42.5%
Barrett, J.T. pass incomplete to Dixon, Johnnie, PENALTY PENNST pass interference 8 yards to the PENNST2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OHIOST.Similar
Q2 4:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
52.9%
Mike Weber 2 Yd Run (Sean Nuernberger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 13PUNT
11 plays · 29 yds · 3:1950% → 55%
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
50.0%
OHIO ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the PnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
48.7%
Trace McSorley run for 1 yd to the PnSt 46Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+8
47.7%
Trace McSorley run for 8 yds to the OhSt 46Similar
Q2 3:33
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+4
46.0%
Saquon Barkley run for 4 yds to the OhSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
45.4%
Saquon Barkley run for 4 yds to the OhSt 38Similar
Q2 2:24
2ND & 6
OPP 38
0
44.3%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q2 2:13
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+2
44.8%
Saquon Barkley run for 2 yds to the OhSt 36Similar
Q2 1:38
4TH & 4
OPP 36
-5
44.2%
PENN ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the OhSt 41Similar
Q2 1:31
4TH & 9
OPP 41
0
44.8%
Blake Gillikin punt for 27 yds, fair catch by K.J. Hill at the OhSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:5244% → 44%
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-7
43.7%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Mike Weber for a loss of 7 yards to the OhSt 7Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 17
OWN 7
+1
42.7%
Mike Weber run for 1 yd to the OhSt 8Similar
Q2 0:42
3RD & 16
OWN 8
+14
43.1%
J.T. Barrett run for 14 yds to the OhSt 22Similar
Q2 0:29
4TH & 2
OWN 22
0
43.5%
Drue Chrisman punt for 40 yds, downed at the PnSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -7 yds · 0:2959% → 59%
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
41.1%
PENN ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 33Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 15
OWN 33
-2
41.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 16FG
12 plays · 57 yds · 3:0643% → 43%
Q3 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+24
42.8%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to K.J. Hill for 24 yds to the OhSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
44.6%
J.K. Dobbins run for 1 yd to the OhSt 49Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+8
44.1%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to K.J. Hill for 8 yds to the PnSt 43Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+7
44.7%
J.K. Dobbins run for 7 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
44.6%
J.K. Dobbins run for 6 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+13
45.7%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to C.J. Saunders for 13 yds to the PnSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
45.2%
J.T. Barrett run for 4 yds to the PnSt 13Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 6
OPP 13
-5
45.0%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 18Similar
Q3 12:11
2ND & 11
OPP 18
-1
44.5%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to J.K. Dobbins for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 19Similar
Q3 11:42
3RD & 12
OPP 19
0
41.7%
J.T. Barrett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:37
4TH & 12
OPP 19
+36
43.3%
Sean Nuernberger 36 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 17TD
11 plays · 70 yds · 3:5259% → 79%
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-3
41.5%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 27Similar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 13
OWN 27
+2
42.3%
Saquon Barkley run for 2 yds to the PnSt 29Similar
Q3 10:20
3RD & 11
OWN 29
+12
42.6%
Trace McSorley run for 12 yds to the PnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
39.0%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+12
39.2%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DeAndre Thompkins for 12 yds to the OhSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
38.1%
Saquon Barkley run for 4 yds to the OhSt 43Similar
Q3 8:56
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+3
36.6%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 3 yds to the OhSt 40Similar
Q3 8:26
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+4
36.6%
Saquon Barkley run for 4 yds to the OhSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-1
36.1%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 37Similar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 11
OPP 37
+37
20.9%
DeAndre Thompkins 37 Yd pass from Trace McSorley (Tyler Davis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 18PUNT
13 plays · 36 yds · 4:0526% → 23%
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+11
25.5%
J.K. Dobbins run for 11 yds to the OhSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
25.7%
J.K. Dobbins run for 2 yds to the OhSt 31Similar
Q3 6:34
2ND & 8
OWN 31
0
25.3%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to K.J. HillSimilar
Q3 6:18
3RD & 8
OWN 31
+10
24.5%
PENN ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the OhSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
26.8%
J.K. Dobbins run for 2 yds to the OhSt 43Similar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+8
26.4%
J.K. Dobbins run for 8 yds to the PnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-10
27.1%
OHIO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the OhSt 41Similar
Q3 5:03
1ST & 20
OWN 41
-5
24.7%
OHIO ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the OhSt 36Similar
Q3 4:39
1ST & 25
OWN 36
+2
22.3%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to K.J. Hill for 2 yds to the OhSt 38Similar
Q3 4:14
2ND & 23
OWN 38
+9
22.2%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Mike Weber for 9 yds to the OhSt 47Similar
Q3 3:33
3RD & 14
OWN 47
+7
21.7%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to K.J. Hill for 7 yds to the PnSt 46Similar
Q3 3:10
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
22.5%
Drue Chrisman punt for 40 yds, downed at the PnSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:3082% → 87%
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-5
17.8%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 5 yards to the PnSt 1Similar
Q3 2:17
2ND & 15
OWN 1
+20
17.1%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 20 yds to the PnSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
16.4%
Saquon Barkley run for 8 yds to the PnSt 29Similar
Q3 1:11
2ND & 2
OWN 29
0
15.6%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Mike GesickiSimilar
Q3 1:02
3RD & 2
OWN 29
-4
16.0%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 25Similar
Q3 0:28
4TH & 6
OWN 25
-3
13.5%
Blake Gillikin punt for 48 yds , K.J. Hill returns for a loss of 3 yards to the OhSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 20FUMBLE
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:4718% → 18%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
18.1%
J.K. Dobbins run for no gain to the OhSt 24Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+2
17.7%
J.T. Barrett run for 2 yds to the OhSt 26Similar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+9
16.6%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Austin Mack for 9 yds to the OhSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
17.5%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Johnnie Dixon for 8 yds to the OhSt 43Similar
Q4 13:23
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+1
18.6%
J.K. Dobbins run for 1 yd to the OhSt 44Similar
Q4 13:13
3RD & 1
OWN 44
-2
18.4%
J.T. Barrett run for a loss of 2 yards to the OhSt 42 J.T. Barrett fumbled, recovered by PnSt Shareef MillerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:0690% → 90%
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-7
10.0%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 7 yards to the OhSt 49Similar
Q4 12:32
2ND & 17
OPP 49
0
10.1%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q4 12:21
3RD & 17
OPP 49
+6
10.2%
Saquon Barkley run for 6 yds to the OhSt 43Similar
Q4 11:39
4TH & 11
OPP 43
+6
10.0%
Blake Gillikin punt blocked by Denzel Ward blocked by Denzel Ward Dante Booker return for 6 yds to the PnSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 22TD
2 plays · 41 yds · 0:2317% → 30%
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
16.6%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Mike Weber for 3 yds to the PnSt 38Similar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+38
30.4%
Johnnie Dixon 38 Yd pass from J.T. Barrett (Sean Nuernberger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 23FG
12 plays · 64 yds · 5:1379% → 90%
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
21.5%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+23
21.9%
Trace McSorley run for 23 yds to the OhSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-10
18.4%
PENN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the PnSt 43Similar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 20
OWN 43
0
19.3%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for no gain to the PnSt 43Similar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 20
OWN 43
+7
18.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:45
3RD & 13
50
+22
17.8%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 22 yds to the OhSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+21
14.6%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saeed Blacknall for 21 yds to the OhSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
13.1%
Trace McSorley run for 3 yds to the OhSt 4Similar
Q4 7:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
10.8%
Trace McSorley run for 1 yd to the OhSt 3Similar
Q4 6:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-3
10.5%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 3 yards to the OhSt 6Similar
Q4 5:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
10.2%
Tyler Davis 24 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 24TD
8 plays · 76 yds · 1:1511% → 38%
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
11.3%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Austin Mack for 11 yds to the OhSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
11.4%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Marcus Baugh for 4 yds to the OhSt 39Similar
Q4 4:44
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+13
12.5%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to K.J. Hill for 13 yds to the PnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+18
12.8%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Austin Mack for 18 yds to the PnSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
15.4%
PENN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the PnSt 25Similar
Q4 4:24
1ST & 5
OPP 25
+15
15.6%
PENN ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the PnSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
37.6%
Johnnie Dixon 10 Yd pass from J.T. Barrett (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 1:0379% → 82%
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-7
20.6%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 7 yards to the PnSt 8Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 17
OWN 8
-2
19.7%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 6Similar
Q4 3:21
3RD & 19
OWN 6
+5
19.7%
Saquon Barkley run for 5 yds to the PnSt 11Similar
Q4 3:07
4TH & 14
OWN 11
+10
17.8%
Blake Gillikin punt for 57 yds , K.J. Hill returns for 10 yds to the OhSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 26TD
5 plays · 58 yds · 1:1227% → 77%
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
27.0%
J.T. Barrett run for 2 yds to the OhSt 44Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+20
26.7%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Terry McLaurin for 20 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
29.8%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to K.J. Hill for 6 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+14
31.4%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to K.J. Hill for 14 yds to the PnSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
76.6%
Marcus Baugh 16 Yd pass from J.T. Barrett (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 27DOWNS
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:2341% → 31%
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
59.5%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Saquon BarkleySimilar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-5
62.4%
Trace McSorley sacked by Jalyn Holmes for a loss of 5 yards to the PnSt 36Similar
Q4 1:29
3RD & 15
OWN 36
0
68.0%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Mike GesickiSimilar
Q4 1:22
4TH & 15
OWN 36
0
69.1%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Juwan JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 28END OF GAME
7 plays · 9 yds · 1:1880% → 96%
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
79.7%
J.T. Barrett run for 4 yds to the PnSt 32Similar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+8
81.9%
J.T. Barrett run for 8 yds to the PnSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
82.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 25Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 25
-2
95.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:48
Marcus Baugh 16 Yd pass from J.T. Barrett (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
+45.2
TD · Q4 4:20
Johnnie Dixon 10 Yd pass from J.T. Barrett (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
+22.1
TD · Q3 7:25
DeAndre Thompkins 37 Yd pass from Trace McSorley (Tyler Davis Kick)
-15.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com