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MSU

Michigan State 31 at Northwestern 39

NU
2017 · Week 9 · Oct 28, 2017 · Ryan Field
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Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playNU scoreMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2OT3TDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:47 · Brian Lewerke run for 5 yds to the Nwest 25 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialTime remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsDefense timeouts
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2OT3Play 178Home team on offense+17.5Garbage-time factor+5.4Score differential+2.7Time remaining+2.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.0Defense timeouts−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 10:49: Bennett Skowronek 12 Yd pass from Justin Jackson (Charlie Kuhbander Kick) — NU win probability +25.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 0:25: Felton Davis III 13 Yd pass from Brian Lewerke (Matt Coghlin Kick) — MSU win probability +45.3 pts (now 62%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. TD · OT 0:00: Felton Davis III 6 Yd pass from Brian Lewerke (Matt Coghlin Kick) — MSU win probability +38.8 pts (now 60%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  4. TD · OT2 0:00: Justin Jackson 3 Yd Run (Charlie Kuhbander Kick) — NU win probability +35.9 pts (now 65%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  5. TD · OT3 0:00: Flynn Nagel 22 Yd pass from Clayton Thorson (Clayton Thorson Pass to Cameron Green for Two-Point Conversion) — NU win probability +26.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NU made the numbers' call on 4 of 8MSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 2:03NU 4th & 2 at NU 48, down 7
    Close callPunted · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.8%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:13MSU 4th & 19 at NU 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.3%−1.4
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.6%
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:53NU 4th & 8 at NU 3, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−1.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:31MSU 4th & 1 at NU 28, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.0%−1.5
    60% to make
    Punt
    54.8%−4.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:58NU 4th & 1 at MSU 1, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    33.8%−2.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    28.6%−7.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:49MSU 4th & 10 at MSU 36, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.5%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:04NU 4th & 10 at MSU 18, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.8%−1.6
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.4%
    79% to make
    Punt
    38.2%−8.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:57NU 4th & 10 at MSU 34, tied
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.1 ptsPunted · 52.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.3%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    51.7%
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    50.6%−1.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:17MSU 4th & 3 at NU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.1%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    49.0%−2.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    47.6%−3.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:16MSU 4th & 16 at NU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%−2.6
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.8%
    49% to make
    Punt
    46.2%−1.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:34NU 4th & 1 at NU 42, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsPunted · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.1%−2.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:41MSU 4th & 1 at MSU 40, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.8 ptsPunted · 49.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.0%−4.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:17NU 4th & 8 at NU 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.5%−2.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:16MSU 4th & 2 at MSU 17, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.7%−1.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:04MSU 4th & 12 at NU 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.0%−5.8
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.7%
    84% to make
    Punt
    6.2%−12.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:14NU 4th & 4 at midfield, up 7
    Close callPunted · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.8%−0.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:47MSU 4th & 4 at NU 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    6.7%−5.4
    56% to make
    Punt
    5.3%−6.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 12:25MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:58NU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 10:49NU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.4%−0.9
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 0:25MSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.7%−2.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSUDrive 1TD
8 plays · 92 yds · 2:2752% → 52%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+16
48.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Sokol for 16 yds to the MchSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
48.6%
Gerald Holmes run for 4 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
Q1 13:49
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+6
48.7%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 6 yds to the MchSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+60
48.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 60 yds to the Nwest 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
48.6%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Matt SokolSimilar
Q1 12:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
48.6%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
Q1 12:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
47.8%
Cody White 6 Yd pass from Brian Lewerke (Matt Coghlin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 2FUMBLE
9 plays · 47 yds · 3:0748% → 48%
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
48.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 11 yds to the Nwest 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
48.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 5 yds to the Nwest 41Similar
Q1 11:44
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+2
48.2%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 43Similar
Q1 11:19
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+4
48.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 4 yds to the Nwest 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
48.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 9 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
Q1 10:29
2ND & 1
OPP 44
0
48.2%
Jeremy Larkin run for no gain to the MchSt 44Similar
Q1 9:59
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+2
48.2%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+14
48.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 14 yds Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman fumbled, forced by Andrew Dowell, recovered by MchSt David DowellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3FUMBLE
9 plays · 65 yds · 4:5053% → 55%
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
47.3%
LJ Scott run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 27Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+5
47.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Connor Heyward for 5 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
Q1 8:02
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+19
46.9%
Brian Lewerke run for 19 yds to the Nwest 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+19
46.0%
Darrell Stewart Jr. run for 19 yds to the Nwest 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
45.8%
LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the Nwest 26Similar
Q1 6:32
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+4
45.6%
LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the Nwest 22Similar
Q1 5:56
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+4
45.6%
Brian Lewerke run for 4 yds to the Nwest 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
45.1%
LJ Scott run for 5 yds to the Nwest 13 LJ Scott fumbled, forced by Paddy Fisher, recovered by MchSt Brian AllenSimilar
Q1 4:28
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+6
44.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 6 yds Cody White fumbled, forced by Paddy Fisher, recovered by Nwest Brett WalshSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 41 yds · 2:2546% → 46%
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
46.2%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 8Similar
Q1 3:54
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+21
46.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 6 yds to the Nwest 14 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Illegal Use of Hands (Demetrius Cooper) to the Nwest 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
46.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 8 yds to the Nwest 37Similar
Q1 3:29
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+3
46.9%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
46.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Macan Wilson for 9 yds to the Nwest 49Similar
Q1 2:44
2ND & 1
OWN 49
-1
47.3%
Clayton Thorson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 48Similar
Q1 2:13
3RD & 2
OWN 48
0
46.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn NagelSimilar
Q1 2:03
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
45.9%
Hunter Niswander punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Cody White at the MchSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 32 yds · 2:5055% → 55%
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
45.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 11 yds to the MchSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
44.6%
Connor Heyward run for no gain to the MchSt 31Similar
Q1 0:58
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+30
44.7%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 30 yds to the Nwest 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
43.3%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to LJ ScottSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+1
43.2%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 1 yd to the Nwest 38Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 38
-10
43.4%
Brian Lewerke sacked by Joe Gaziano for a loss of 10 yards to the Nwest 48Similar
Q2 14:13
4TH & 19
OPP 48
0
44.7%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 47 yds, downed at the Nwest 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2045% → 43%
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
44.5%
Clayton Thorson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 3Similar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 8
OWN 3
0
44.4%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Nwest 3Similar
Q2 13:11
3RD & 8
OWN 3
0
43.6%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn NagelSimilar
Q2 12:53
4TH & 8
OWN 3
-3
43.2%
Hunter Niswander punt for 42 yds , Cody White returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7FG
6 plays · 20 yds · 3:2258% → 59%
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
42.4%
Connor Heyward run for 3 yds to the Nwest 45Similar
Q2 12:14
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+8
42.2%
Brian Lewerke run for 8 yds to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
42.0%
Madre London run for 3 yds to the Nwest 34Similar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+5
41.5%
Madre London run for 5 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q2 10:11
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+1
41.6%
Brian Lewerke run for 1 yd to the Nwest 28Similar
Q2 9:31
4TH & 1
OPP 28
+46
41.2%
Matt Coghlin 46 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 8TD
16 plays · 81 yds · 5:2840% → 51%
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
39.7%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Nwest 24Similar
Q2 8:58
1ST & 5
OWN 24
+2
40.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Riley Lees for 2 yds to the Nwest 26Similar
Q2 8:26
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+25
39.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Riley Lees for 25 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
40.6%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Justin JacksonSimilar
Q2 8:04
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
40.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Macan WilsonSimilar
Q2 7:56
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+10
39.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 10 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
40.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 5 yds to the MchSt 34Similar
Q2 6:53
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+10
41.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Riley Lees for 10 yds to the MchSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
41.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Kyric McGowanSimilar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+21
40.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 21 yds to the MchSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
40.7%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the MchSt 2Similar
Q2 5:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
40.6%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 5Similar
Q2 4:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
39.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 4 yds to the MchSt 1Similar
Q2 3:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
50.5%
Clayton Thorson 1 Yd Run (Charlie Kuhbander Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 2:0353% → 53%
Q2 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
47.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 8 yds to the MchSt 34Similar
Q2 3:17
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+2
46.4%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
46.3%
LJ Scott run for no gain to the MchSt 36Similar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
45.0%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Cody WhiteSimilar
Q2 1:59
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
46.3%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q2 1:49
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
47.2%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 38 yds, downed at the Nwest 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 10FG
13 plays · 56 yds · 1:4046% → 54%
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
46.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Justin JacksonSimilar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+15
45.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 15 yds to the Nwest 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
48.6%
Clayton Thorson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 44Similar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+5
48.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 5 yds to the Nwest 49Similar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+5
48.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 5 yds to the MchSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
49.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 11 yds to the MchSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+17
51.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 17 yds to the MchSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
50.9%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
50.9%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Garrett DickersonSimilar
Q2 0:08
3RD & 10
OPP 18
0
49.4%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Bennett SkowronekSimilar
Q2 0:04
4TH & 10
OPP 18
+35
54.2%
Charlie Kuhbander 35 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-2
50.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 12PUNT
10 plays · 41 yds · 2:0354% → 54%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
53.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 18 yds to the Nwest 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
56.4%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Macan WilsonSimilar
Q3 14:26
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+6
55.6%
Justin Jackson run for 6 yds to the Nwest 49Similar
Q3 13:47
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+7
56.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 7 yds to the MchSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
57.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 10 yds to the MchSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
58.4%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Bennett SkowronekSimilar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
58.4%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Charlie FesslerSimilar
Q3 13:06
3RD & 10
OPP 34
0
56.7%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Bennett SkowronekSimilar
Q3 12:57
4TH & 10
OPP 34
0
53.5%
Hunter Niswander punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MchSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13MISSED FG
16 plays · 60 yds · 6:4149% → 47%
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
50.9%
Gerald Holmes run for 3 yds to the MchSt 10Similar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 7
OWN 10
0
50.8%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q3 11:58
3RD & 7
OWN 10
+13
52.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Gerald Holmes for 13 yds to the MchSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
50.8%
Gerald Holmes run for 3 yds to the MchSt 26Similar
Q3 10:54
2ND & 7
OWN 26
0
50.5%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
Q3 10:48
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+23
52.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 23 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
47.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 11 yds to the Nwest 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
47.3%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
Q3 9:29
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+1
47.3%
Gerald Holmes run for 1 yd to the Nwest 39Similar
Q3 8:52
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+6
47.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 6 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q3 8:17
4TH & 3
OPP 33
+6
49.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 6 yds to the Nwest 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
45.6%
Gerald Holmes run for 2 yds to the Nwest 25Similar
Q3 6:59
2ND & 8
OPP 25
-2
45.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Gerald Holmes for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 27Similar
Q3 6:24
3RD & 10
OPP 27
0
47.7%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Matt SokolSimilar
Q3 6:21
4TH & 10
OPP 27
-6
50.9%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (Luke Campbell) to the Nwest 33Similar
Q3 6:16
4TH & 16
OPP 33
+51
52.9%
Matt Coghlin 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4255% → 55%
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
55.3%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 35Similar
Q3 5:31
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+3
55.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 3 yds to the Nwest 38Similar
Q3 4:59
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+4
55.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 4 yds to the Nwest 42Similar
Q3 4:34
4TH & 1
OWN 42
0
55.0%
Hunter Niswander punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Cody White at the MchSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:5349% → 49%
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
50.9%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the MchSt 22Similar
Q3 3:49
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+9
51.2%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to LJ Scott for 9 yds to the MchSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
50.2%
Darrell Stewart Jr. run for 8 yds to the MchSt 39Similar
Q3 2:56
2ND & 2
OWN 39
0
47.7%
LJ Scott run for no gain to the MchSt 39Similar
Q3 2:17
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+1
48.1%
Brian Lewerke run for 1 yd to the MchSt 40Similar
Q3 1:41
4TH & 1
OWN 40
0
50.8%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Riley Lees at the Nwest 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 16FUMBLE
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:2455% → 55%
Q3 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-9
55.0%
Thorson, Clayton pass complete to Skowronek, Bennett for 15 yards to the NORTHWSTRN34, PENALTY NORTHWSTRN pass interference (Skowronek, Bennett) 9 yards to the NORTHWSTRN10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:16
1ST & 19
OWN 21
+21
54.8%
Jeremy Larkin run for 11 yds to the Nwest 21 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (Raequan Williams) to the Nwest 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
55.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Riley Lees for 11 yds to the Nwest 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
58.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Riley LeesSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+3
57.0%
Jeremy Larkin run for 3 yds to the Nwest 45Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 45
-1
57.1%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Khari Willis for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 44Similar
Q4 14:17
4TH & 8
OWN 44
-2
54.6%
Hunter Niswander punt for 45 yds , Cody White returns for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 9 Cody White fumbled, recovered by MchSt Tyson SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:0148% → 45%
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
52.2%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 7 yds to the MchSt 16Similar
Q4 13:43
2ND & 3
OWN 16
0
51.5%
Madre London run for no gain to the MchSt 16Similar
Q4 12:52
3RD & 3
OWN 16
+1
53.1%
Brian Lewerke run for 1 yd to the MchSt 17Similar
Q4 12:16
4TH & 2
OWN 17
0
54.9%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Riley Lees at the Nwest 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 18TD
5 plays · 58 yds · 1:2759% → 87%
Q4 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+25
59.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 25 yds to the MchSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
62.6%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Macan WilsonSimilar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+3
62.5%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q4 10:59
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+18
60.9%
Clayton Thorson run for 8 yds to the MchSt 22 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (Justin Layne) to the MchSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
86.6%
Bennett Skowronek 12 Yd pass from Justin Jackson (Charlie Kuhbander Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19MISSED FG
15 plays · 61 yds · 4:4521% → 16%
Q4 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
79.4%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
Q4 10:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
79.7%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 7 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
Q4 10:01
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-15
79.6%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Cody White) to the MchSt 17Similar
Q4 9:36
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+45
81.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 45 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
75.8%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:49
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+14
75.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 14 yds to the Nwest 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
73.5%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Cam ChambersSimilar
Q4 8:12
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
74.3%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Cody WhiteSimilar
Q4 8:06
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+12
76.6%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 12 yds to the Nwest 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
76.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to LJ Scott for 2 yds to the Nwest 10Similar
Q4 6:59
2ND & 8
OPP 10
-10
77.1%
Lewerke, Brian pass incomplete, PENALTY MICHIGANST holding (Chewins, Cole) 10 yards to the NORTHWSTRN20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:46
2ND & 18
OPP 20
+6
78.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 6 yds to the Nwest 14Similar
Q4 6:13
3RD & 12
OPP 14
0
80.7%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q4 6:04
4TH & 12
OPP 14
+32
83.7%
Matt Coghlin 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 2:5088% → 94%
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
88.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Macan Wilson for 13 yds to the Nwest 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
89.5%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Nwest 38Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+6
90.8%
Justin Jackson run for 6 yds to the Nwest 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
92.8%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Nwest 49Similar
Q4 3:31
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+2
93.0%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the MchSt 49Similar
Q4 3:27
3RD & 3
OPP 49
-1
93.7%
Clayton Thorson run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:14
4TH & 4
50
0
93.8%
Hunter Niswander punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Cody White at the MchSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21TD
14 plays · 88 yds · 2:499% → 62%
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+10
91.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 10 yds to the MchSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
90.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 8 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q4 2:32
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+3
89.2%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Sokol for 3 yds to the MchSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+14
90.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 14 yds to the MchSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
89.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 8 yds to the Nwest 45Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+9
87.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Hunter Rison for 9 yds to the Nwest 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
88.1%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Cody WhiteSimilar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+7
88.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Hunter Rison for 7 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q4 1:26
3RD & 3
OPP 29
-5
87.2%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (Matt Dotson) to the Nwest 34Similar
Q4 1:10
3RD & 8
OPP 34
+4
88.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 4 yds to the Nwest 30Similar
Q4 0:47
4TH & 4
OPP 30
+5
88.5%
Brian Lewerke run for 5 yds to the Nwest 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+12
83.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 12 yds to the Nwest 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
38.5%
Felton Davis III 13 Yd pass from Brian Lewerke (Matt Coghlin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 22END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-2
58.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 23TD
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:0065% → 82%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
64.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 11 yds to the MchSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
82.1%
Cameron Green 14 Yd pass from Clayton Thorson (Charlie Kuhbander Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 24TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0020% → 60%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
80.4%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Cody WhiteSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+7
82.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 7 yds to the Nwest 18Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+11
85.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Sokol for 11 yds to the Nwest 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
79.3%
Brian Lewerke run for 1 yd to the Nwest 6Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
40.5%
Felton Davis III 6 Yd pass from Brian Lewerke (Matt Coghlin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 25TD
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:0060% → 78%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+14
40.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Gerald Holmes for 14 yds to the Nwest 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
22.0%
Cody White 11 Yd pass from Brian Lewerke (Matt Coghlin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 26TD
4 plays · 25 yds · 0:0028% → 65%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
28.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 4 yds to the MchSt 21Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+18
28.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 18 yds to the MchSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
28.8%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the MchSt 3Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
64.7%
Justin Jackson 3 Yd Run (Charlie Kuhbander Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 27TD
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:0065% → 91%
OT3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
64.7%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Cameron GreenSimilar
OT3 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+3
64.5%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the MchSt 22Similar
OT3 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+22
90.5%
Flynn Nagel 22 Yd pass from Clayton Thorson (Clayton Thorson Pass to Cameron Green for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 28Uncategorized
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0013% → 11%
OT3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
87.5%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Cody WhiteSimilar
OT3 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
88.9%
Brian Lewerke pass intercepted, touchback. Nate Hall return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:25
Felton Davis III 13 Yd pass from Brian Lewerke (Matt Coghlin Kick)
-45.3
TD · OT 0:00
Felton Davis III 6 Yd pass from Brian Lewerke (Matt Coghlin Kick)
-38.8
TD · OT2 0:00
Justin Jackson 3 Yd Run (Charlie Kuhbander Kick)
+35.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com