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MICH

Michigan 13 at Penn State 42

PSU
2017 · Week 8 · Oct 21, 2017 · Beaver Stadium
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Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadMICH aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreMICH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:19 · Blake Gillikin punt for 56 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 44Home team on offense+3.7Pregame prior+14.1Score differential+0.9Garbage-time factor+1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.9Blowout margin−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:53: Karan Higdon 1 Yd Run (Quinn Nordin PAT failed) — MICH win probability +3.2 pts (now 27%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:45: Ty Isaac 6 Yd Run (Quinn Nordin Kick) — MICH win probability +9.8 pts (now 37%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:53: Trace McSorley 3 Yd Run (Tyler Davis Kick) — PSU win probability +9.2 pts (now 80%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:13: Trace McSorley 13 Yd Run (Tyler Davis Kick) — PSU win probability +8.6 pts (now 92%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:11: Saquon Barkley 42 Yd pass from Trace McSorley (Tyler Davis Kick) — PSU win probability +3.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MICH made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 12:16MICH 4th & 12 at MICH 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:54MICH 4th & 13 at MICH 40, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.7%−0.7
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.3%
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:53MICH 4th & 1 at PSU 1, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    20.9%−1.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    16.0%−6.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:19PSU 4th & 19 at PSU 6, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.7%−2.6
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:41MICH 4th & 1 at MICH 45, down 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.4%−1.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:05PSU 4th & 7 at MICH 33, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    75.3%−0.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    74.6%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:06MICH 4th & 9 at MICH 26, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%−1.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:37MICH 4th & 7 at PSU 46, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.3%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    20.5%−2.0
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    22.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:02MICH 4th & 17 at MICH 29, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.4%−1.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:39PSU 4th & 12 at PSU 31, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.7%−1.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.4%
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:50MICH 4th & 11 at PSU 45, down 22
    Close callWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    1.0%−0.3
    25% to make
    Punt
    1.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:15MICH 4th & 1 at MICH 34, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:19MICH 4th & 13 at PSU 44, down 29
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    27% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6MICH made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 14:17PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:11PSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:53MICH Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    27.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:45MICH Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:53PSU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:13PSU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:11PSU Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:53PSU Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PSUDrive 1TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:2070% → 71%
Q1 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
70.3%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 6 yds to the PnSt 31Similar
Q1 14:17
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+69
70.5%
Saquon Barkley run for 69 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:3930% → 29%
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
70.5%
Karan Higdon run for no gain to the Mich 24Similar
Q1 13:28
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+3
70.6%
Karan Higdon run for 3 yds to the Mich 27Similar
Q1 12:35
3RD & 7
OWN 27
-5
70.8%
John O'Korn sacked by Curtis Cothran for a loss of 5 yards to the Mich 22Similar
Q1 12:16
4TH & 12
OWN 22
+2
70.9%
Brad Robbins punt for 48 yds , DeAndre Thompkins returns for 2 yds to the PnSt 24 PENN ST Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the PnSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3TD
4 plays · 78 yds · 1:5771% → 73%
Q1 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
70.8%
Saquon Barkley run for 5 yds to the PnSt 27Similar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+23
71.0%
Trace McSorley run for 23 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
50
+35
71.4%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 35 yds to the Mich 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
73.1%
Saquon Barkley run for 15 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 2:0128% → 26%
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
72.4%
Karan Higdon run for no gain to the Mich 43Similar
Q1 9:09
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+3
72.8%
Karan Higdon run for 3 yds to the Mich 46Similar
Q1 8:20
3RD & 7
OWN 46
-6
73.1%
John O'Korn pass complete to Sean McKeon for a loss of 6 yards to the Mich 40Similar
Q1 7:54
4TH & 13
OWN 40
0
73.8%
Brad Robbins punt for 37 yds, fair catch by DeAndre Thompkins at the PnSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 5INT
11 plays · 55 yds · 4:3074% → 77%
Q1 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
74.3%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Saquon BarkleySimilar
Q1 7:40
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+10
74.3%
McSorley, Trace pass incomplete to Hamilton, DaeSean, PENALTY MICHIGAN holding (Kinnel, Tyree) 10 yards to the PENNST33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PENNST.Similar
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
74.5%
Saquon Barkley run for 2 yds to the PnSt 35Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+15
74.8%
McSorley, Trace pass incomplete to Barkley, Saquon, PENALTY MICHIGAN personal foul (Winovich, Chase) 15 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PENNST.Similar
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
50
0
75.4%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Mike GesickiSimilar
Q1 6:31
2ND & 10
50
+6
75.4%
Saquon Barkley run for 6 yds to the Mich 44Similar
Q1 5:49
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+5
75.7%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Andre Robinson for 5 yds to the Mich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
76.3%
Miles Sanders run for 9 yds to the Mich 30Similar
Q1 4:42
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+5
76.6%
Saquon Barkley run for 5 yds to the Mich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
76.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 3 yds to the Mich 22Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+25
77.1%
Trace McSorley pass intercepted David Long return for 25 yds to the Mich 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 6TD
11 plays · 59 yds · 5:0724% → 27%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
75.6%
John O'Korn pass complete to Khalid Hill for 8 yds to the Mich 49Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+12
74.8%
John O'Korn run for 12 yds to the PnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
75.2%
Chris Evans run for 9 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q1 1:17
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+3
74.7%
Chris Evans run for 3 yds to the PnSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
74.8%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Karan HigdonSimilar
Q1 0:41
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+11
75.1%
Karan Higdon run for 11 yds to the PnSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+13
75.1%
John O'Korn pass complete to Eddie McDoom for 13 yds to the PnSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
75.0%
Karan Higdon run for 2 yds to the PnSt 1Similar
Q2 14:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
75.1%
Khalid Hill run for no gain to the PnSt 1Similar
Q2 13:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
76.1%
Khalid Hill run for no gain to the PnSt 1Similar
Q2 12:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
72.9%
Karan Higdon 1 Yd Run (Quinn Nordin PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:0073% → 72%
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-5
73.2%
Trace McSorley sacked by Maurice Hurst for a loss of 5 yards to the PnSt 10Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 15
OWN 10
-4
73.2%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 6Similar
Q2 11:26
3RD & 19
OWN 6
0
72.6%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:19
4TH & 19
OWN 6
-2
72.1%
Blake Gillikin punt for 56 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2226% → 26%
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
73.7%
John O'Korn run for 3 yds to the Mich 39Similar
Q2 10:39
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+4
73.6%
Karan Higdon run for 4 yds to the Mich 43Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+2
73.5%
John O'Korn pass complete to Chris Evans for 2 yds to the Mich 45Similar
Q2 9:41
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
74.4%
Brad Robbins punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 9DOWNS
10 plays · 54 yds · 4:1575% → 77%
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+12
74.6%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 12 yds to the PnSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
74.8%
Saquon Barkley run for 2 yds to the PnSt 27Similar
Q2 8:29
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
75.0%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Saquon BarkleySimilar
Q2 8:09
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+27
74.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 27 yds to the Mich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
77.1%
Trace McSorley run for 4 yds to the Mich 42Similar
Q2 6:48
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+6
77.4%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 6 yds to the Mich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
77.4%
Saquon Barkley run for 2 yds to the Mich 34Similar
Q2 5:47
2ND & 8
OPP 34
0
77.9%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Saquon BarkleySimilar
Q2 5:33
3RD & 8
OPP 34
+1
77.2%
Trace McSorley run for 1 yd to the Mich 33Similar
Q2 5:05
4TH & 7
OPP 33
0
76.6%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 10TD
8 plays · 67 yds · 2:5524% → 37%
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
76.0%
Karan Higdon run for 1 yd to the Mich 34Similar
Q2 4:17
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+14
76.1%
John O'Korn run for 14 yds to the Mich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+18
74.9%
John O'Korn pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 18 yds to the PnSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
73.6%
Ty Isaac run for 5 yds to the PnSt 29Similar
Q2 2:49
2ND & 5
OPP 29
0
73.3%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Grant PerrySimilar
Q2 2:30
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+23
74.6%
John O'Korn pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 23 yds to the PnSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
72.8%
Karan Higdon run for no gain to the PnSt 6Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
63.0%
Ty Isaac 6 Yd Run (Quinn Nordin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 11TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 0:4869% → 80%
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.2%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
68.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 12 yds to the PnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+36
69.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 36 yds to the Mich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+9
72.7%
Saquon Barkley run for 9 yds to the Mich 18Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 1
OPP 18
-2
72.7%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 20Similar
Q2 0:56
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+17
70.3%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 17 yds to the Mich 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
79.5%
Trace McSorley 3 Yd Run (Tyler Davis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 1 yds · 0:3323% → 22%
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
76.8%
Karan Higdon run for 1 yd to the Mich 26Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-10
76.9%
O'Korn, John pass complete to Crawford, Kekoa for 24 yards to the 50 yardline, PENALTY MICHIGAN holding (Bushell-Beatty, Juwann) 10 yards to the MICHIGAN16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+5
77.2%
Karan Higdon run for 5 yds to the Mich 21Similar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+5
77.5%
John O'Korn pass complete to Sean McKeon for 5 yds to the Mich 26Similar
Q2 0:06
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+18
77.9%
Brad Robbins punt for 42 yds , DeAndre Thompkins returns for 18 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
50
-1
79.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 14PUNT
11 plays · 29 yds · 4:1823% → 22%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.2%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Khalid HillSimilar
Q3 14:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
77.5%
John O'Korn run for 6 yds to the Mich 31 John O'Korn fumbled, forced by Jason Cabinda, recovered by Mich Grant PerrySimilar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
77.5%
John O'Korn run for 5 yds to the Mich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
76.7%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Grant PerrySimilar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+8
77.0%
Eddie McDoom run for 8 yds to the Mich 44Similar
Q3 12:40
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+7
75.7%
Ty Isaac run for 7 yds to the PnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
75.1%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Donovan Peoples-JonesSimilar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-6
76.1%
John O'Korn sacked by Ryan Buchholz for a loss of 6 yards to the Mich 45Similar
Q3 10:52
3RD & 16
OWN 45
+9
78.2%
John O'Korn pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 9 yds to the PnSt 46Similar
Q3 10:37
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
78.0%
Brad Robbins punt for 26 yds, downed at the PnSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 15TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 5:0579% → 92%
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
79.2%
Saquon Barkley run for 2 yds to the PnSt 22Similar
Q3 9:51
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+26
79.2%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 26 yds to the PnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
81.4%
Trace McSorley run for 13 yds to the Mich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
81.8%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 8 yds to the Mich 31Similar
Q3 7:52
2ND & 2
OPP 31
+2
82.5%
Trace McSorley run for 2 yds to the Mich 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-4
82.8%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 4 yards to the Mich 33Similar
Q3 6:14
2ND & 14
OPP 33
+11
83.7%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 11 yds to the Mich 22Similar
Q3 5:40
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+9
83.6%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 9 yds to the Mich 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
92.3%
Trace McSorley 13 Yd Run (Tyler Davis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:4811% → 10%
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
89.1%
John O'Korn pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 16 yds to the Mich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
88.4%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Grant PerrySimilar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
88.8%
Ty Isaac run for 4 yds to the Mich 40Similar
Q3 3:25
3RD & 6
OWN 40
-11
89.0%
John O'Korn sacked by Manny Bowen and Jason Cabinda for a loss of 11 yards to the Mich 29Similar
Q3 3:02
4TH & 17
OWN 29
0
90.5%
Brad Robbins punt for 38 yds, fair catch by DeAndre Thompkins at the PnSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:0193% → 92%
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
93.0%
Saquon Barkley run for 4 yds to the PnSt 37Similar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 6
OWN 37
0
93.2%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Saquon BarkleySimilar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 6
OWN 37
-6
93.1%
Trace McSorley sacked by Kwity Paye and Mike McCray for a loss of 6 yards to the PnSt 31Similar
Q3 1:39
4TH & 12
OWN 31
0
92.3%
Blake Gillikin punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mich 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18FUMBLE
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:419% → 9%
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
91.3%
Chris Evans run for no gain to the Mich 26Similar
Q3 0:56
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
91.7%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Khalid HillSimilar
Q3 0:30
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+12
92.1%
John O'Korn pass complete to Sean McKeon for 12 yds to the Mich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
91.4%
Karan Higdon run for 4 yds to the Mich 42Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 6
OWN 46
-19
91.4%
Isaac, Ty rush for 4 yards to the MICHIGAN46, PENALTY MICHIGAN personal foul 19 yards to the MICHIGAN27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 21
OWN 27
+22
92.5%
John O'Korn pass complete to Grant Perry for 22 yds to the Mich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-3
91.5%
John O'Korn sacked by Christian Campbell for a loss of 3 yards to the Mich 46 John O'Korn fumbled, forced by Christian Campbell, recovered by PnSt Robert Windsor , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 19TD
3 plays · 46 yds · 0:0995% → 99%
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
95.4%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saeed Blacknall for 4 yds to the Mich 42Similar
Q4 13:11
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+42
98.9%
Saquon Barkley 42 Yd pass from Trace McSorley (Tyler Davis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 20DOWNS
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:571% → 1%
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
98.6%
Karan Higdon run for 3 yds to the Mich 32Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 7
OWN 32
0
98.6%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Grant PerrySimilar
Q4 12:07
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+24
98.7%
John O'Korn pass complete to Grant Perry for 24 yds to the PnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-8
98.7%
John O'Korn sacked by Curtis Cothran for a loss of 8 yards to the Mich 48Similar
Q4 10:36
2ND & 18
OWN 48
+5
98.8%
Chris Evans run for 5 yds to the PnSt 47Similar
Q4 10:07
3RD & 13
OPP 47
+2
98.9%
John O'Korn pass complete to Eddie McDoom for 2 yds to the PnSt 45Similar
Q4 9:50
4TH & 11
OPP 45
-7
98.9%
John O'Korn sacked by Kevin Givens for a loss of 7 yards to the Mich 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 21TD
4 plays · 48 yds · 1:4799% → 100%
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+23
99.1%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Brandon Polk for 23 yds to the Mich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-3
99.2%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 3 yards to the Mich 28Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 13
OPP 28
+19
99.2%
Trace McSorley run for 19 yds to the Mich 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
99.9%
Trace McSorley 9 Yd Run (Tyler Davis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 22DOWNS
15 plays · 32 yds · 4:110% → 0%
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
99.9%
John O'Korn run for 5 yds to the Mich 20Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+5
99.9%
Ty Isaac run for 5 yds to the Mich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Zach GentrySimilar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.9%
Ty Isaac run for 9 yds to the Mich 34Similar
Q4 5:56
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
99.9%
John O'Korn pass complete to Grant Perry for no gain to the Mich 34Similar
Q4 5:15
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+7
99.9%
Karan Higdon run for 7 yds to the Mich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
99.9%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Donovan Peoples-JonesSimilar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+4
99.9%
John O'Korn pass complete to Khalid Hill for 4 yds to the Mich 45Similar
Q4 4:05
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+14
99.9%
John O'Korn pass complete to Eddie McDoom for 14 yds to the PnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
99.9%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Grant PerrySimilar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+1
99.9%
John O'Korn run for 1 yd to the PnSt 40Similar
Q4 3:23
3RD & 9
OPP 40
0
100.0%
John O'Korn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:23
4TH & 9
OPP 40
-4
100.0%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Delay of Game (-4 Yards) to the PnSt 44Similar
Q4 3:19
4TH & 13
OPP 44
-9
100.0%
John O'Korn sacked by Shaka Toney for a loss of 9 yards to the Mich 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 23END OF GAME
8 plays · 37 yds · 3:08100% → 100%
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
100.0%
Tommy Stevens run for 11 yds to the Mich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
100.0%
Miles Sanders run for 5 yds to the Mich 31Similar
Q4 2:19
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+2
100.0%
Miles Sanders run for 2 yds to the Mich 29Similar
Q4 1:41
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+5
100.0%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Mich 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
100.0%
Miles Sanders run for 9 yds to the Mich 15Similar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 1
OPP 15
+5
100.0%
Mark Allen run for 5 yds to the Mich 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
100.0%
Miles Sanders run for 4 yds to the Mich 6Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-4
100.0%
Miles Sanders run for a loss of 4 yards to the Mich 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:45
Ty Isaac 6 Yd Run (Quinn Nordin Kick)
-9.8
TD · Q2 0:53
Trace McSorley 3 Yd Run (Tyler Davis Kick)
+9.2
TD · Q3 5:13
Trace McSorley 13 Yd Run (Tyler Davis Kick)
+8.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com