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IOWA

Iowa 10 at Northwestern 17

NU
2017 · Week 8 · Oct 21, 2017 · Ryan Field
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Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadIOWA aheadconfidence bandkey playNU scoreIOWA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:26 · Clayton Thorson run for 1 yd to the Iowa 15 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseTime remainingScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+20.5+10.30−10.3−20.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 142Pregame prior+2.0Home team on offense+4.6Time remaining−0.1Score differential−1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.8Garbage-time factor−1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:40: Nathan Stanley pass complete to Noah Fant for 7 yds for a TD, (Miguel Recinos KICK) — IOWA win probability +12.3 pts (now 60%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:19: Jeremy Larkin run for 6 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK) — NU win probability +16.3 pts (now 65%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 8:07: Charlie Kuhbander 30 yd FG GOOD — NU win probability +9.6 pts (now 75%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 1:30: Miguel Recinos 48 yd FG GOOD — IOWA win probability +21.6 pts (now 54%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Clayton Thorson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK) — NU win probability +17.6 pts (now 82%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NU made the numbers' call on 9 of 12IOWA made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00IOWA 4th & 1 at NU 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    41.6%−0.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    41.6%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 15:00IOWA 4th & 5 at NU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    41.8%−<0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    41.4%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:49NU 4th & 3 at NU 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:12IOWA 4th & 11 at NU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.5%−0.4
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.9%
    77% to make
    Punt
    40.0%−1.9
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:12NU 4th & 10 at NU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00IOWA 4th & 2 at IOWA 18, tied
    Close callPunted · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.2%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:22NU 4th & 7 at IOWA 29, tied
    Close callWent for it · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.0%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    59.1%
    58% to make
    Punt
    57.3%−1.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:59IOWA 4th & 14 at IOWA 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.9%−1.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:38NU 4th & 1 at IOWA 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    57.2%−2.3
    36% to make
    Punt
    57.3%−2.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:38NU 4th & 11 at IOWA 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    58.7%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.4%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q2 5:46IOWA 4th & 14 at IOWA 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.2%−1.8
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.1%
    average punt
  12. Q2 2:38NU 4th & 7 at NU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.5%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 14:52NU 4th & 15 at NU 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.8%−3.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.1%
    average punt
  14. Q3 13:35IOWA 4th & 6 at IOWA 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.1%−1.0
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.1%
    average punt
  15. Q3 7:19IOWA 4th & 16 at IOWA 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.9%−4.8
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.7%
    average punt
  16. Q3 4:32NU 4th & 2 at IOWA 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    56.7%−4.1
    30% to make
    Punt
    57.9%−2.9
    average punt
  17. Q3 4:32NU 4th & 7 at IOWA 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    58.6%−0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    56.9%−1.8
    average punt
  18. Q4 15:00IOWA 4th & 12 at IOWA 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−3.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 10:26NU 4th & 1 at IOWA 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    52.6%−6.8
    81% to make
    Punt
    33.0%−26.5
    average punt
  20. Q4 8:07NU 4th & 8 at IOWA 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%−2.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.7%
    85% to make
    Punt
    38.3%−20.4
    average punt
  21. Q4 7:05NU 4th & 5 at IOWA 30, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    71.7%−1.0
    56% to make
    Punt
    67.7%−5.0
    average punt
  22. Q4 1:30IOWA 4th & 6 at NU 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%−6.2
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.1%
    54% to make
    Punt
    13.3%−14.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1IOWA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 0:40IOWA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 7:19NU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IOWADrive 1DOWNS
13 plays · 47 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
62.0%
Nathan Stanley pass incomplete to Nick EasleySimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
62.0%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 6 yds to the Iowa 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+26
62.0%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 26 yds to the Nwest 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-9
62.0%
Wadley, Akrum rush for 7 yards to the NU36 (Walsh, Brett), PENALTY IOWA holding (Jackson, Alaric) 9 yards to the IOWA48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 19
OWN 48
+9
62.0%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to T.J. Hockenson for 9 yds to the Nwest 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+8
62.0%
Akrum Wadley run for 8 yds to the Nwest 35Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+1
62.0%
Akrum Wadley run for 1 yd to the Nwest 34Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+1
62.0%
Akrum Wadley run for 1 yd to the Nwest 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
62.0%
Akrum Wadley run for 5 yds to the Nwest 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 28
0
62.0%
Nathan Stanley pass incomplete to Matt VandeBerg, broken up by Alex MillerSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 28
0
62.0%
Nathan Stanley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 28
0
62.0%
Nathan Stanley pass incomplete to Akrum Wadley, broken up by Nate HallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
61.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 11 yds to the Nwest 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
62.1%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 40Similar
Q1 10:49
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+6
62.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Macan Wilson for 6 yds to the Nwest 46Similar
Q1 10:49
3RD & 3
OWN 46
0
62.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Macan Wilson, broken up by Joshua Jackson NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Offensive pass interference ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 10:49
4TH & 3
OWN 46
0
61.9%
Hunter Niswander punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Joshua Jackson at the Iowa 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 3MISSED FG
12 plays · 71 yds · 6:1638% → 39%
Q1 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
61.8%
Akrum Wadley run for 3 yds to the Iowa 13Similar
Q1 9:28
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+22
61.8%
Akrum Wadley run for 22 yds to the Iowa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
61.6%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Noah Fant for 17 yds to the Nwest 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
61.2%
Akrum Wadley run for 1 yd to the Nwest 47Similar
Q1 9:28
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+18
61.2%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Matt VandeBerg for 18 yds to the Nwest 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
61.0%
Ihmir Smith-Marsette run for 6 yds to the Nwest 23Similar
Q1 9:28
2ND & 4
OPP 23
-1
61.0%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Akrum Wadley for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 24Similar
Q1 9:28
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+6
61.2%
Akrum Wadley run for 6 yds to the Nwest 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
61.0%
Toren Young run for 1 yd to the Nwest 17Similar
Q1 9:28
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+3
61.0%
Toren Young run for 3 yds to the Nwest 14Similar
Q1 9:28
3RD & 6
OPP 14
-5
61.2%
Nathan Stanley sacked by Joe Gaziano for a loss of 5 yards to the Nwest 19Similar
Q1 3:12
4TH & 11
OPP 19
+37
61.0%
Miguel Recinos 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
61.4%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 21Similar
Q1 3:12
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+10
61.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 10 yds to the Nwest 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
61.6%
Clayton Thorson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 29Similar
Q1 3:12
2ND & 12
OWN 29
+8
61.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 8 yds to the Nwest 37Similar
Q1 3:12
3RD & 4
OWN 37
-6
61.6%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Parker Hesse and Nathan Bazata for a loss of 6 yards to the Nwest 31Similar
Q1 3:12
4TH & 10
OWN 31
0
60.6%
Hunter Niswander punt for 59 yds, downed at the Iowa 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:4239% → 39%
Q1 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
60.6%
Akrum Wadley run for 1 yd to the Iowa 11Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+2
60.6%
Akrum Wadley run for 2 yds to the Iowa 13Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 13
+5
61.2%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Brandon Smith for 5 yds to the Iowa 18Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 18
+22
61.5%
Ryan Gersonde punt for 51 yds , Riley Lees returns for 22 yds to the Iowa 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 6DOWNS
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0063% → 62%
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
63.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Macan Wilson, broken up by Amani HookerSimilar
Q2 13:22
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+6
63.0%
Justin Jackson run for 6 yds to the Iowa 41Similar
Q2 13:22
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+9
62.8%
Justin Jackson run for 9 yds to the Iowa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
63.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Bennett SkowronekSimilar
Q2 13:22
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
63.5%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Iowa 32Similar
Q2 13:22
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+3
62.7%
Jeremy Larkin run for 3 yds to the Iowa 29Similar
Q2 13:22
4TH & 7
OPP 29
0
61.8%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Bennett SkowronekSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0040% → 39%
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
59.8%
Akrum Wadley run for 1 yd to the Iowa 30Similar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 9
OWN 30
0
59.8%
Nathan Stanley pass incomplete to T.J. HockensonSimilar
Q2 10:59
3RD & 9
OWN 30
-5
60.6%
IOWA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Iowa 25Similar
Q2 10:59
3RD & 14
OWN 25
0
60.9%
Nathan Stanley pass incomplete to Ihmir Smith-MarsetteSimilar
Q2 10:59
4TH & 14
OWN 25
0
61.4%
Colten Rastetter punt for 55 yds, downed at the Nwest 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 8PUNT
14 plays · 43 yds · 2:2561% → 60%
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
61.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Macan Wilson for 17 yds to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-15
61.9%
Thorson, C. pass complete to Wilson, Macan for 4 yards to the NU41 (Ward, Kevin), PENALTY NU pass interference (Dickerson, G.) 15 yards to the NU22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:03
1ST & 25
OWN 22
+11
61.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 11 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 14
OWN 33
+19
61.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 4 yds to the Iowa 37 for a 1ST down IOWA Penalty, personal foul (Nathan Bazata) to the Iowa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
63.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Riley LeesSimilar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+7
63.2%
Justin Jackson run for 7 yds to the Iowa 41Similar
Q2 10:03
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+2
63.0%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Iowa 39Similar
Q2 7:38
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+3
61.6%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Iowa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
63.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 2 yds to the Iowa 34Similar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+2
63.7%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Iowa 32Similar
Q2 7:38
3RD & 6
OPP 32
0
62.9%
Clayton Thorson run for no gain to the Iowa 32Similar
Q2 7:38
4TH & 6
OPP 32
-5
61.4%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, false start (Rashawn Slater) to the Iowa 37Similar
Q2 7:38
4TH & 11
OPP 37
0
60.3%
Hunter Niswander punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 0:0043% → 41%
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+23
57.5%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Toren Young for 23 yds to the Iowa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
55.3%
Akrum Wadley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 42Similar
Q2 5:46
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+1
56.1%
Akrum Wadley run for 1 yd to the Iowa 43Similar
Q2 5:46
3RD & 10
OWN 43
-4
56.8%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Akrum Wadley for a loss of 4 yards to the Iowa 39Similar
Q2 5:46
4TH & 14
OWN 39
0
59.0%
Ryan Gersonde punt for 61 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:3460% → 59%
Q2 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
60.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 10 yds to the Nwest 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
60.7%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Bennett Skowronek, broken up by Ben NiemannSimilar
Q2 3:12
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
60.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman, broken up by Joshua JacksonSimilar
Q2 3:12
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+3
59.1%
Clayton Thorson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q2 2:38
4TH & 7
OWN 33
0
58.9%
Hunter Niswander punt for 34 yds , Matt VandeBerg returns for no gain to the Iowa 33 IOWA Penalty, Offensive holding (Michael Ojemudia) to the Iowa 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 11TD
6 plays · 77 yds · 1:4843% → 60%
Q2 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+61
57.0%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Matt VandeBerg for 61 yds to the Nwest 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
52.7%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 4 yds to the Nwest 12Similar
Q2 2:28
2ND & 6
OPP 12
-6
52.7%
IOWA Penalty, false start (Tristan Wirfs) to the Nwest 18Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 12
OPP 18
+11
52.6%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Matt VandeBerg for 11 yds to the Nwest 7Similar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+7
40.3%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Noah Fant for 7 yds for a TD, (Miguel Recinos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
46.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0045% → 43%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
45.2%
Clayton Thorson run for no gain to the Nwest 22Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-5
45.1%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Matt Nelson for a loss of 5 yards to the Nwest 17Similar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 15
OWN 17
0
43.8%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Riley Lees, broken up by Joshua JacksonSimilar
Q3 14:52
4TH & 15
OWN 17
0
43.2%
Hunter Niswander punt for 80 yds, downed at the Iowa 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0057% → 55%
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
43.3%
Akrum Wadley run for 2 yds to the Iowa 5Similar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+8
43.6%
Akrum Wadley run for 8 yds to the Iowa 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
42.9%
Akrum Wadley run for 4 yds to the Iowa 17Similar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 6
OWN 17
0
43.0%
Nathan Stanley pass incomplete to Nick EasleySimilar
Q3 13:35
3RD & 6
OWN 17
0
44.0%
Nathan Stanley pass incomplete to Nick EasleySimilar
Q3 13:35
4TH & 6
OWN 17
0
45.0%
Ryan Gersonde punt for 49 yds, downed at the Nwest 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 15TD
13 plays · 66 yds · 4:2844% → 65%
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
43.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Macan Wilson for 6 yds to the Nwest 40Similar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+5
45.9%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Nwest 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
45.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 9 yds to the Iowa 46Similar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+2
47.1%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Iowa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
47.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Justin JacksonSimilar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-10
46.6%
Thorson, C. pass complete to Fessler, C. for 14 yards to the IOWA30 (Gervase, Jake), PENALTY NU holding (North, Brad) 10 yards to the NU46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 20
OWN 46
+5
43.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 5 yds to the Iowa 49Similar
Q3 11:47
3RD & 15
OPP 49
+21
43.3%
Clayton Thorson run for 21 yds to the Iowa 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
48.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 9 yds to the Iowa 19Similar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 1
OPP 19
+2
48.5%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Iowa 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
48.5%
Jeremy Larkin run for 7 yds to the Iowa 10Similar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+4
48.5%
Jeremy Larkin run for 4 yds to the Iowa 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
64.8%
Jeremy Larkin run for 6 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:0044% → 41%
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
56.3%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 9 yds to the Iowa 34Similar
Q3 7:19
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+6
54.1%
Akrum Wadley run for 6 yds to the Iowa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-3
53.9%
Akrum Wadley run for a loss of 3 yards to the Iowa 37Similar
Q3 7:19
2ND & 13
OWN 37
-2
56.3%
Ihmir Smith-Marsette run for a loss of 2 yards to the Iowa 35Similar
Q3 7:19
4TH & 16
OWN 34
0
58.8%
Ryan Gersonde punt for 50 yds , Riley Lees returns for no gain to the Nwest 16 Riley Lees fumbled, recovered by Nwest Riley Lees NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) to the Nwest 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 17DOWNS
13 plays · 52 yds · 0:0059% → 60%
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
59.0%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 19Similar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+12
58.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 12 yds to the Nwest 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
59.6%
Justin Jackson run for 8 yds to the Nwest 39Similar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+11
62.4%
Justin Jackson run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
50
+6
63.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 6 yds to the Iowa 44Similar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+3
63.6%
Jeremy Larkin run for 3 yds to the Iowa 41Similar
Q3 4:32
3RD & 1
OPP 41
-10
63.0%
Thorson, C. pass incomplete to McGowan, Kyric, PENALTY NU holding (Doles, Tommy) 10 yards to the NU49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:32
3RD & 11
OWN 49
+9
59.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Macan Wilson for 9 yds to the Iowa 42Similar
Q3 4:32
4TH & 2
OPP 42
+7
60.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 7 yds to the Iowa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
64.6%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Justin JacksonSimilar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+3
64.5%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Iowa 32Similar
Q3 4:32
3RD & 7
OPP 32
0
63.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:32
4TH & 7
OPP 32
0
60.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Riley LeesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:1047% → 42%
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-7
53.5%
Nathan Stanley sacked by Joe Gaziano for a loss of 7 yards to the Iowa 25Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 25
+2
55.3%
Akrum Wadley run for 2 yds to the Iowa 27Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 27
+3
56.7%
Nathan Stanley run for 3 yds to the Iowa 30Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 30
+12
58.1%
Ryan Gersonde punt for 52 yds , Flynn Nagel returns for 12 yds to the Nwest 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 19FG
14 plays · 57 yds · 5:3159% → 75%
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
59.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Macan Wilson for 9 yds to the Nwest 39Similar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+2
62.5%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
61.6%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Nwest 46Similar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+11
62.9%
Clayton Thorson run for 11 yds to the Iowa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+18
63.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 18 yds to the Iowa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
65.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for no gain to the Iowa 25Similar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+7
64.9%
Jeremy Larkin run for 7 yds to the Iowa 18Similar
Q4 13:38
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+2
63.2%
Jeremy Larkin run for 2 yds to the Iowa 16Similar
Q4 10:26
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+1
63.4%
Clayton Thorson run for 1 yd to the Iowa 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
67.5%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Iowa 14Similar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+5
67.5%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Iowa 9Similar
Q4 10:26
3RD & 4
OPP 9
-4
65.5%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Nathan Bazata for a loss of 4 yards to the Iowa 13Similar
Q4 8:07
4TH & 8
OPP 13
+30
75.1%
Charlie Kuhbander 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 20INT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0032% → 30%
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
68.0%
Nathan Stanley pass incomplete to Brandon Smith, broken up by Nate HallSimilar
Q4 8:02
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+2
68.8%
Akrum Wadley run for 2 yds to the Iowa 34Similar
Q4 8:02
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+23
69.9%
Nathan Stanley pass intercepted JR Pace return for 23 yds to the Iowa 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 21DOWNS
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0079% → 75%
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
79.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Cameron Green, broken up by Sam BrincksSimilar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+2
78.9%
Clayton Thorson run for 2 yds to the Iowa 33Similar
Q4 7:05
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+3
77.3%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Iowa 30Similar
Q4 7:05
4TH & 5
OPP 30
0
75.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Macan Wilson NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 22FG
12 plays · 39 yds · 4:0031% → 54%
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
69.2%
Akrum Wadley run for 2 yds to the Iowa 32Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
68.8%
Nathan Stanley pass incomplete to Matt VandeBerg, broken up by Godwin IgwebuikeSimilar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+9
71.3%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to T.J. Hockenson for 9 yds to the Iowa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
66.6%
Akrum Wadley run for no gain to the Iowa 41Similar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+7
65.1%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Noah Fant for 7 yds to the Nwest 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
63.4%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Akrum Wadley for 10 yds to the Nwest 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
61.7%
Nathan Stanley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+9
61.7%
Akrum Wadley run for 9 yds to the Nwest 26Similar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 1
OPP 26
0
63.3%
Akrum Wadley run for no gain to the Nwest 26Similar
Q4 1:35
4TH & 1
OPP 26
-5
67.2%
IOWA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Nwest 31Similar
Q4 1:30
4TH & 6
OPP 31
+48
45.6%
Miguel Recinos 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 23END OF GAME
14 plays · 0 yds · 16:3056% → 89%
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
56.0%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
56.7%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
56.3%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
64.7%
Clayton Thorson run for 1 yd to the Iowa 24Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 24
0
64.7%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 9
OPP 24
+23
62.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 23 yds to the Iowa 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
64.7%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Iowa 1Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
82.3%
Clayton Thorson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
80.4%
Akrum Wadley run for 3 yds to the Nwest 22Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 22
0
80.4%
Nathan Stanley pass incomplete to Nick EasleySimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+4
86.9%
Akrum Wadley run for 4 yds to the Nwest 18Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 3
OPP 18
0
88.9%
Nathan Stanley pass incomplete to Noah FantSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 1:30
Miguel Recinos 48 yd FG GOOD
-21.6
TD · OT 0:00
Clayton Thorson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)
+17.6
TD · Q3 7:19
Jeremy Larkin run for 6 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)
+16.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com