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ILL

Illinois 17 at Minnesota 24

MINN
2017 · Week 8 · Oct 21, 2017 · Huntington Bank Stadium
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Win probability · MINN
modelMINN aheadILL aheadconfidence bandkey playMINN scoreILL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:33 · Blake Hayes punt for 50 yds , Drew Hmielewski returns for 8 yds to the Minn 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 103Pregame prior+13.5Home team on offense+2.2Garbage-time factor−0.2Score differential+0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q4 14:09: Jeff George Jr. run for 1 yd to the Minn 42 — ILL win probability +7.0 pts (now 32%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. FG · Q4 10:06: Chase McLaughlin 28 yd FG GOOD — ILL win probability +11.2 pts (now 44%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 4:20: Kobe McCrary run for 4 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK) — MINN win probability +24.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:11: Cam Thomas pass intercepted for a TD Jonathan Celestin return for 31 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK) — MINN win probability +3.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:23: Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 14 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK) — ILL win probability +11.2 pts (now 17%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MINN made the numbers' call on 4 of 7ILL made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 11:53ILL 4th & 7 at ILL 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.8%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:45MINN 4th & 2 at MINN 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.0%−<0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:55ILL 4th & 2 at ILL 35, down 7
    Close callPunted · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:05MINN 4th & 8 at MINN 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.4%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:37ILL 4th & 6 at MINN 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.7%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.7%
    68% to make
    Punt
    20.8%−1.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:37MINN 4th & 4 at MINN 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:08ILL 4th & 4 at ILL 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.6%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:42MINN 4th & 4 at MINN 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.3%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:06MINN 4th & 12 at ILL 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.6%−1.0
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.7%
    86% to make
    Punt
    69.0%−3.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00ILL 4th & 15 at ILL 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%−2.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:33MINN 4th & 2 at ILL 2, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.5%−2.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    60.2%−11.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:33ILL 4th & 4 at ILL 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00ILL 4th & 1 at MINN 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    27.1%−3.8
    58% to make
    Punt
    19.3%−11.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:06ILL 4th & 8 at MINN 10, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.6%−3.4
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.0%
    88% to make
    Punt
    16.5%−14.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:09MINN 4th & 4 at ILL 47, up 7
    Close callPunted · 93.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.2%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MINN made the numbers' call on 2 of 3ILL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 11:53MINN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:05ILL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 4:20MINN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.0%−1.6
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 4:11MINN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.0%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.4%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 0:23ILL Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MINNDrive 1TD
9 plays · 72 yds · 3:0782% → 82%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+14
81.8%
Rodney Smith run for 14 yds to the Minn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
81.8%
Demry Croft pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+8
81.8%
Demry Croft run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
50
+5
81.8%
Rodney Smith run for 5 yds to the Illin 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
81.8%
Rodney Smith run for 11 yds to the Illin 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+26
81.8%
Kobe McCrary run for 26 yds to the Illin 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
81.8%
Demry Croft run for no gain to the Illin 8Similar
Q1 11:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
81.9%
Demry Croft pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 8 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
81.6%
Jeff George Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:53
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
81.6%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 3 yds to the Illin 38Similar
Q1 11:53
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
81.6%
Jeff George Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:53
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
81.7%
Blake Hayes punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Minn 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0082% → 81%
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
81.6%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the Minn 16Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+4
81.6%
Rodney Smith run for 4 yds to the Minn 20Similar
Q1 10:45
3RD & 3
OWN 20
+1
81.6%
Demry Croft run for 1 yd to the Minn 21Similar
Q1 10:45
4TH & 2
OWN 21
0
81.4%
Ryan Santoso punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Nate Hobbs at the Illin 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
81.4%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 9 yds to the Illin 36Similar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 1
OWN 36
-9
81.2%
Jeff George Jr. sacked by Carter Coughlin for a loss of 9 yards to the Illin 27Similar
Q1 8:55
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+8
81.6%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Malik Turner for 8 yds to the Illin 35Similar
Q1 8:55
4TH & 2
OWN 35
0
81.5%
Blake Hayes punt for 59 yds, downed at the Minn 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 5FUMBLE
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:0081% → 82%
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+5
81.4%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Minn 11Similar
Q1 6:53
1ST & 5
OWN 11
+4
81.5%
Rodney Smith run for 4 yds to the Minn 15 Rodney Smith fumbled, forced by Bennett Williams, recovered by Illin Julian JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 6TD
2 plays · 15 yds · 0:3919% → 22%
Q1 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+9
80.6%
Cam Thomas run for 9 yds to the Minn 6Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 1
OPP 6
+6
78.2%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 6 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
79.2%
Rodney Smith run for 6 yds to the Minn 31Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
79.4%
Rodney Smith run for 6 yds to the Minn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
79.4%
Demry Croft run for 2 yds to the Minn 39Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
79.5%
Demry Croft pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:05
3RD & 8
OWN 39
0
79.2%
Demry Croft pass incomplete to Tyler JohnsonSimilar
Q1 6:05
4TH & 8
OWN 39
0
78.8%
Ryan Santoso punt for 61 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 8MISSED FG
12 plays · 56 yds · 5:2422% → 24%
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
78.3%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Carmoni Green for 8 yds to the Illin 28Similar
Q1 4:01
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+4
78.0%
Cam Thomas run for 4 yds to the Illin 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
78.2%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 3 yds to the Illin 35Similar
Q1 4:01
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+25
78.1%
Cam Thomas pass complete to Dominic Thieman for 25 yds to the Minn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
77.5%
Ra'Von Bonner run for a loss of 5 yards to the Minn 45 Ra'Von Bonner fumbled, recovered by Illin Ra'Von BonnerSimilar
Q1 4:01
2ND & 15
OPP 45
+8
77.9%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Reggie Corbin for 8 yds to the Minn 37Similar
Q1 4:01
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+9
77.7%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 9 yds to the Minn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
77.3%
Cam Thomas run for 6 yds to the Minn 22Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 22
-5
75.0%
ILLINOIS Penalty, substitution infraction (Reggie Corbin) to the Minn 27Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+2
75.1%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 2 yds to the Minn 25Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+1
75.6%
Cam Thomas run for 1 yd to the Minn 24Similar
Q2 13:37
4TH & 6
OPP 24
+42
75.6%
Chase McLaughlin 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
76.9%
Demry Croft run for 8 yds to the Minn 32Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+3
77.6%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the Minn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
77.1%
Rodney Smith run for 1 yd to the Minn 36Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+5
77.2%
Demry Croft pass complete to Rodney Smith for 5 yds to the Minn 41Similar
Q2 13:37
3RD & 4
OWN 41
0
77.4%
Demry Croft pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:37
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
76.7%
Ryan Santoso punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Malik Turner at the Illin 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0025% → 24%
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
75.2%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Dominic Thieman for 5 yds to the Illin 15Similar
Q2 11:08
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+2
75.1%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 2 yds to the Illin 17Similar
Q2 11:08
3RD & 3
OWN 17
+4
75.6%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 4 yds to the Illin 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
75.1%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 4 yds to the Illin 25Similar
Q2 11:08
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+2
74.9%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 2 yds to the Illin 27Similar
Q2 11:08
3RD & 4
OWN 27
0
75.3%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Malik Turner, broken up by Ken Handy-HollySimilar
Q2 11:08
4TH & 4
OWN 27
+13
76.0%
Blake Hayes punt for 57 yds , Drew Hmielewski returns for 13 yds to the Minn 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q2 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+12
75.0%
Demry Croft pass complete to Ko Kieft for 12 yds to the Minn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
76.0%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the Minn 44Similar
Q2 7:42
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+3
76.3%
Demry Croft run for 3 yds to the Minn 47Similar
Q2 7:42
3RD & 4
OWN 47
0
75.9%
Demry Croft pass incomplete to Tyler JohnsonSimilar
Q2 7:42
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
74.9%
Ryan Santoso punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Malik Turner at the Illin 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 12FUMBLE
4 plays · 18 yds · 0:0028% → 29%
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-6
71.7%
Reggie Corbin run for a loss of 6 yards to the Illin 9Similar
Q2 5:38
2ND & 16
OWN 9
+14
72.2%
Cam Thomas run for 14 yds to the Illin 23Similar
Q2 5:38
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+10
72.0%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 10 yds to the Illin 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
71.1%
Ra'Von Bonner run for no gain to the Illin 33 Ra'Von Bonner fumbled, forced by Carter Coughlin, recovered by Minn Steven RichardsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 13MISSED FG
12 plays · 21 yds · 3:2376% → 73%
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
76.1%
MINNESOTA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Illin 38Similar
Q2 3:29
1ST & 15
OPP 38
+9
74.8%
Kobe McCrary run for 9 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q2 3:29
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+9
76.1%
Kobe McCrary run for 9 yds to the Illin 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
76.1%
Rodney Smith run for 5 yds to the Illin 15Similar
Q2 3:29
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+1
76.1%
Demry Croft run for 1 yd to the Illin 14Similar
Q2 3:29
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+8
75.3%
Demry Croft run for 8 yds to the Illin 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
76.1%
Demry Croft run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 7Similar
Q2 3:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
76.1%
Kobe McCrary run for no gain to the Illin 7Similar
Q2 3:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
75.3%
Demry Croft pass incomplete, broken up by Ayo ShogbonyoSimilar
Q2 3:29
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
74.0%
MINNESOTA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Illin 12Similar
Q2 0:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+30
72.7%
Emmit Carpenter 30 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
69.4%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:0031% → 29%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
68.6%
George, Jr., J. pass incomplete to Turner,Malik (McGhee, D), PENALTY ILL holding (Boyd,Larry) 10 yards to the ILL15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+3
68.8%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 3 yds to the Illin 18Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 18
-5
69.1%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Reggie Corbin for a loss of 5 yards to the Illin 13Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 22
OWN 13
+7
70.0%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 7 yds to the Illin 20Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
70.8%
Blake Hayes punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Minn 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 16FG
12 plays · 65 yds · 4:1671% → 75%
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
71.2%
Demry Croft run for 3 yds to the Minn 36Similar
Q3 12:49
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+8
72.2%
Kobe McCrary run for 8 yds to the Minn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
73.0%
Kobe McCrary run for 9 yds to the Illin 47Similar
Q3 12:49
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+7
73.8%
Kobe McCrary run for 7 yds to the Illin 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
73.7%
Kobe McCrary run for 10 yds to the Illin 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+17
74.3%
Kobe McCrary run for 17 yds to the Illin 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
74.3%
Kobe McCrary run for 7 yds to the Illin 6Similar
Q3 12:49
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+5
74.3%
Kobe McCrary run for 5 yds to the Illin 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
74.3%
Demry Croft run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 2Similar
Q3 12:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
74.3%
Kobe McCrary run for no gain to the Illin 2Similar
Q3 12:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
73.3%
Demry Croft pass incomplete to Ko Kieft, broken up by Bennett WilliamsSimilar
Q3 8:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
75.0%
Emmit Carpenter 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0028% → 26%
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-4
72.2%
Reggie Corbin run for a loss of 4 yards to the Illin 24Similar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 14
OWN 24
0
73.1%
Cam Thomas pass incomplete to Louis DorseySimilar
Q3 8:33
3RD & 14
OWN 24
+10
74.0%
Cam Thomas run for 10 yds to the Illin 34 Cam Thomas fumbled, forced by Kamal Martin, recovered by Illin Cam ThomasSimilar
Q3 8:33
4TH & 4
OWN 34
+8
73.9%
Blake Hayes punt for 50 yds , Drew Hmielewski returns for 8 yds to the Minn 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 18INT
8 plays · 44 yds · 0:0074% → 76%
Q3 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+19
73.8%
Demry Croft pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 19 yds to the Minn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
75.7%
Rodney Smith run for 4 yds to the Minn 47Similar
Q3 7:03
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+7
76.2%
Kobe McCrary run for 7 yds to the Illin 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
76.7%
Rodney Smith run for 7 yds to the Illin 39Similar
Q3 7:03
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+3
76.7%
Kobe McCrary run for 3 yds to the Illin 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
76.7%
Kobe McCrary run for 1 yd to the Illin 35Similar
Q3 7:03
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+3
77.3%
Demry Croft pass complete to Rodney Smith for 3 yds to the Illin 32Similar
Q3 7:03
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+19
76.3%
Demry Croft pass intercepted Stanley Green return for 19 yds to the Illin 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 19DOWNS
8 plays · 48 yds · 3:0228% → 32%
Q3 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
72.4%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 6 yds to the Illin 28Similar
Q3 3:02
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+1
71.4%
Cam Thomas run for 1 yd to the Illin 29Similar
Q3 3:02
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+22
72.5%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 22 yds to the Minn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
68.2%
Cam Thomas run for 11 yds to the Minn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
68.2%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 5 yds to the Minn 33Similar
Q3 3:02
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+2
66.5%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Malik Turner for 2 yds to the Minn 31Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+2
66.6%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 2 yds to the Minn 29Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 29
-1
68.4%
Ra'Von Bonner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 20INT
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q4 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
75.1%
Demry Croft pass incomplete MINNESOTA Penalty, intentional grounding (Demry Croft) to the Minn 28Similar
Q4 14:23
2ND & 12
OWN 28
0
74.6%
Demry Croft pass intercepted Cameron Watkins return for no gain to the Minn 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 21FG
8 plays · 33 yds · 4:0332% → 44%
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
67.6%
Jeff George Jr. run for 1 yd to the Minn 42Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+8
67.7%
Cam Thomas pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 8 yds to the Minn 34Similar
Q4 14:09
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+1
67.3%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 1 yd to the Minn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+21
66.1%
Cam Thomas run for 21 yds to the Minn 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
65.7%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 2 yds to the Minn 10Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+2
65.7%
Cam Thomas run for 2 yds to the Minn 8Similar
Q4 14:09
3RD & 6
OPP 8
-2
67.4%
Jeff George Jr. sacked by Winston DeLattiboudere for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 10 Jeff George Jr. fumbled, recovered by Illin Jeff George Jr. , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 10:06
4TH & 8
OPP 10
+28
56.3%
Chase McLaughlin 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 22TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:4662% → 93%
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
62.4%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Minn 27Similar
Q4 10:06
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
62.7%
Kobe McCrary run for 9 yds to the Minn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
64.0%
Kobe McCrary run for 7 yds to the Minn 43Similar
Q4 10:06
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+4
66.8%
Kobe McCrary run for 4 yds to the Minn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
66.8%
Rodney Smith run for 12 yds to the Illin 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
67.7%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the Illin 38Similar
Q4 10:06
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+19
67.8%
Phillip Howard run for 4 yds to the Illin 34 for a 1ST down ILLINOIS Penalty, personal foul (Bennett Williams) to the Illin 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
69.0%
Kobe McCrary run for 6 yds to the Illin 13Similar
Q4 10:06
2ND & 4
OPP 13
-1
69.0%
Kobe McCrary run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 14Similar
Q4 10:06
3RD & 5
OPP 14
+7
67.2%
Rodney Smith run for 7 yds to the Illin 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
69.0%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the Illin 4Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
93.3%
Kobe McCrary run for 4 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 23INT TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+31
95.7%
Cam Thomas pass intercepted for a TD Jonathan Celestin return for 31 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 24TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:484% → 17%
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
95.7%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Kendrick Foster for 9 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q4 4:11
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
95.2%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Louis DorseySimilar
Q4 4:11
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+10
95.2%
Kendrick Foster run for 10 yds to the Illin 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+13
95.1%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Malik Turner for 13 yds to the Minn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
95.0%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Malik Turner for 10 yds to the Minn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
94.5%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Reggie Corbin for 1 yd to the Minn 32Similar
Q4 4:11
2ND & 9
OPP 32
-10
94.6%
George, Jr., J. rush for 6 yards to the MINN26 (Barber, Thomas), PENALTY ILL holding (Allegretti,N.) 10 yards to the MINN42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:11
2ND & 19
OPP 42
-3
95.1%
Jeff George Jr. sacked by Carter Coughlin for a loss of 3 yards to the Minn 45Similar
Q4 4:11
3RD & 22
OPP 45
+27
95.6%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Trenard Davis for 27 yds to the Minn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
94.3%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 4 yds to the Minn 14Similar
Q4 4:11
2ND & 6
OPP 14
0
94.3%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Ricky Smalling, broken up by Adekunle AyindeSimilar
Q4 0:23
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+14
83.1%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 14 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 25PUNT
9 plays · 6 yds · 0:1394% → 96%
Q4 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
93.9%
Kobe McCrary run for no gain to the Minn 47Similar
Q4 0:18
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+4
96.8%
Kobe McCrary run for 4 yds to the Illin 49Similar
Q4 0:14
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+2
96.9%
Kobe McCrary run for 2 yds to the Illin 47Similar
Q4 0:09
4TH & 4
OPP 47
0
96.4%
Ryan Santoso punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 26END OF GAME
1 play · -15 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q4 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
93.1%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 6 yds to the Illin 5 lat. to Malik Turner for a loss of 16 yards to the Illin 5 lat. to Jeff George Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 5 to Sam Mays for a loss of 4 yards to the Illin 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:20
Kobe McCrary run for 4 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)
+24.4
FG · Q4 10:06
Chase McLaughlin 28 yd FG GOOD
-11.2
TD · Q4 0:23
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 14 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK)
-11.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com