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IU

Indiana 9 at Michigan State 17

MSU
2017 · Week 8 · Oct 21, 2017 · Spartan Stadium
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadIU aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 14:08 · Jake Hartbarger punt for 43 yds, fair catch by J-Shun Harris II at the Ind 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+28.0+14.00−14.0−28.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 97Pregame prior+7.7Home team on offense+0.6Score differential−0.8Garbage-time factor−0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q4 12:29: Griffin Oakes 20 yd FG GOOD — IU win probability +10.2 pts (now 69%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q4 12:15: Lewerke, Brian pass incomplete to White, Cody, PENALTY INDIANA pass interference (Fant, Rashard) 10 yards to the MICHIGANST35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGANST. — MSU win probability +7.5 pts (now 40%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 9:01: Lewerke, Brian pass incomplete to Davis III, Felton, PENALTY INDIANA pass interference (Fant, Rashard) 15 yards to the INDIANA40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGANST. — MSU win probability +7.2 pts (now 38%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:59: Felton Davis III 10 Yd pass from Brian Lewerke (Matt Coghlin Kick) — MSU win probability +32.9 pts (now 71%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:49: LJ Scott 18 Yd Run (Matt Coghlin Kick) — MSU win probability +24.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 10 of 11IU made the numbers' call on 8 of 12
  1. Q1 13:13IU 4th & 1 at MSU 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.0%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:17MSU 4th & 5 at MSU 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.4%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:27IU 4th & 7 at IU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.5%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:42MSU 4th & 10 at IU 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.5%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    66.3%−0.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:26IU 4th & 10 at MSU 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.9%
    83% to make
    Punt
    32.7%−2.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:40MSU 4th & 21 at MSU 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.2%−1.7
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:45IU 4th & 5 at IU 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.4%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:46MSU 4th & 5 at IU 5, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.4%
    92% to make
    Punt
    54.1%−6.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:07IU 4th & 4 at IU 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 38.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.6%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:18MSU 4th & 1 at MSU 18, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.1%−1.4
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:34IU 4th & 16 at IU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%−1.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.9%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:25MSU 4th & 3 at MSU 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%−1.7
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 14:08MSU 4th & 6 at MSU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.7%−0.8
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 12:53IU 4th & 4 at IU 36, tied
    Close callPunted · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.0%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 9:59MSU 4th & 12 at MSU 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%−2.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.6%
    average punt
  16. Q3 5:31IU 4th & 12 at MSU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%−2.6
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.9%
    64% to make
    Punt
    31.5%−9.4
    average punt
  17. Q3 2:06MSU 4th & 3 at IU 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.6%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    51.6%−3.0
    45% to make
    Punt
    50.0%−4.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 12:29IU 4th & 1 at MSU 2, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 6.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.6%
    60% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.8%−6.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    33.6%−23.9
    average punt
  19. Q4 10:35MSU 4th & 13 at MSU 32, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−4.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.1%
    average punt
  20. Q4 9:07IU 4th & 8 at IU 14, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.7%−3.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.1%
    average punt
  21. Q4 7:10MSU 4th & 3 at IU 33, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.5%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    29.9%−3.6
    49% to make
    Punt
    26.1%−7.4
    average punt
  22. Q4 5:04IU 4th & 6 at IU 29, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.5%
    average punt
  23. Q4 0:48IU 4th & 9 at IU 38, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.3%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.1%−1.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q4 5:59MSU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.3%−1.9
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 1:49MSU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.1%−0.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IUDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:3234% → 34%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
66.0%
Morgan Ellison run for 7 yds to the Ind 39Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+4
65.9%
Peyton Ramsey run for 4 yds to the Ind 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
65.8%
Morgan Ellison run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:53
2ND & 3
50
0
65.7%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Simmie Cobbs Jr.Similar
Q1 13:28
3RD & 3
50
+2
65.7%
Morgan Ellison run for 2 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
Q1 13:13
4TH & 1
OPP 48
0
65.7%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Connor Heyward at the MchSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 2:5666% → 65%
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+10
65.8%
INDIANA Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the MchSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
65.8%
Darrell Stewart Jr. run for no gain to the MchSt 21Similar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+8
65.8%
Brian Lewerke run for 8 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q1 11:42
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+3
65.6%
Cody White run for 3 yds to the MchSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
65.7%
Madre London run for 3 yds to the MchSt 35Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+2
65.7%
Brian Lewerke run for 2 yds to the MchSt 37Similar
Q1 10:39
3RD & 5
OWN 37
0
65.6%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Laress NelsonSimilar
Q1 10:17
4TH & 5
OWN 37
0
65.4%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 62 yds, downed at the Ind 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 32 yds · 1:2835% → 35%
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
65.5%
Morgan Ellison run for no gain to the Ind 1Similar
Q1 9:31
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+29
65.5%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Simmie Cobbs Jr. for 29 yds to the Ind 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
65.3%
Peyton Ramsey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:54
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+3
65.3%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Simmie Cobbs Jr. for 3 yds to the Ind 33Similar
Q1 8:39
3RD & 7
OWN 33
0
65.2%
Peyton Ramsey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:27
4TH & 7
OWN 33
+5
65.5%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 47 yds , Laress Nelson returns for 5 yds to the MchSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4PUNT
11 plays · 32 yds · 3:2765% → 65%
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
65.3%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q1 7:28
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
65.2%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to LJ Scott for 1 yd to the MchSt 28Similar
Q1 7:01
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+13
64.7%
Brian Lewerke sacked by Robert McCray III for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 26 for a 1ST down INDIANA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
65.6%
Brian Lewerke run for 1 yd to the MchSt 42Similar
Q1 6:08
2ND & 9
OWN 42
0
65.4%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Cam ChambersSimilar
Q1 5:49
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+15
65.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 15 yds to the Ind 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
65.9%
Madre London run for 2 yds to the Ind 41Similar
Q1 5:01
2ND & 8
OPP 41
-2
66.3%
LJ Scott run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ind 43Similar
Q1 4:49
3RD & 10
OPP 43
0
65.9%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:42
4TH & 10
OPP 43
0
65.2%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 36 yds, fair catch by J-Shun Harris II at the Ind 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 42 yds · 1:4535% → 36%
Q1 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+9
65.3%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Luke Timian for 9 yds to the Ind 16Similar
Q1 4:19
2ND & 1
OWN 16
+5
64.9%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Demetrius Cooper) to the Ind 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+20
64.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Whop Philyor for 20 yds to the Ind 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
64.0%
Morgan Ellison run for 4 yds to the Ind 45Similar
Q1 3:23
2ND & 6
OWN 45
-4
63.8%
Peyton Ramsey run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ind 41Similar
Q1 2:44
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+8
64.5%
Peyton Ramsey run for 8 yds to the Ind 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6FUMBLE
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
65.2%
Madre London run for 3 yds to the MchSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 7FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:0338% → 37%
Q1 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
62.4%
Peyton Ramsey run for no gain to the MchSt 15Similar
Q1 0:40
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
62.1%
Peyton Ramsey run for no gain to the MchSt 15Similar
Q1 0:29
3RD & 10
OPP 15
0
62.7%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Luke TimianSimilar
Q1 0:26
4TH & 10
OPP 15
+33
62.6%
Griffin Oakes 33 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:4663% → 62%
Q1 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
62.9%
INDIANA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Alex Rodriguez) to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
64.0%
LJ Scott run for 7 yds to the MchSt 47Similar
Q2 14:39
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+9
64.3%
LJ Scott run for 9 yds to the Ind 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
64.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 20 yards to the MchSt 37 TEAM fumbled, recovered by MchSt Brian Lewerke Brian Lewerke run for 1 yd to the MchSt 37Similar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 29
OWN 37
+8
62.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 8 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q2 13:16
3RD & 21
OWN 45
0
62.1%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:40
4TH & 21
OWN 45
0
61.6%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:3738% → 38%
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
61.6%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Luke Timian for no gain to the Ind 20Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
61.6%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Taysir MackSimilar
Q2 11:54
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+5
62.2%
Peyton Ramsey run for 5 yds to the Ind 25Similar
Q2 11:45
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
62.4%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 48 yds, downed at the MchSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10FG
12 plays · 68 yds · 4:5362% → 64%
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+10
62.3%
INDIANA Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
62.6%
LJ Scott run for 9 yds to the MchSt 46Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+12
63.8%
LJ Scott run for 12 yds to the Ind 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
64.0%
LJ Scott run for no gain to the Ind 42Similar
Q2 9:26
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+15
63.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 15 yds to the Ind 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
63.0%
LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the Ind 23Similar
Q2 8:23
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+14
62.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to LJ Scott for 14 yds to the Ind 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
61.9%
Brian Lewerke run for 5 yds to the Ind 4Similar
Q2 7:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
61.8%
Brian Lewerke run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 5Similar
Q2 6:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
60.6%
Connor Heyward pass incomplete to Brian LewerkeSimilar
Q2 6:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
64.4%
Matt Coghlin 23 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:2140% → 40%
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
60.5%
Morgan Ellison run for 5 yds to the Ind 30Similar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-4
59.7%
Morgan Ellison run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ind 26Similar
Q2 5:50
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+13
61.3%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Simmie Cobbs Jr. for 13 yds to the Ind 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
58.7%
Peyton Ramsey run for 1 yd to the Ind 40Similar
Q2 5:07
2ND & 9
OWN 40
0
58.9%
Peyton Ramsey run for no gain to the Ind 40Similar
Q2 4:28
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+5
59.7%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Simmie Cobbs Jr. for 5 yds to the Ind 45Similar
Q2 4:07
4TH & 4
OWN 45
+1
59.6%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 47 yds , Cody White returns for 1 yd to the MchSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3163% → 61%
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
62.8%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the MchSt 11Similar
Q2 3:17
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+7
62.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Noah Davis for 7 yds to the MchSt 18Similar
Q2 2:35
3RD & 1
OWN 18
0
61.5%
LJ Scott run for no gain to the MchSt 18Similar
Q2 2:18
4TH & 1
OWN 18
+3
60.6%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 39 yds , J-Shun Harris II returns for 3 yds to the Ind 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · -6 yds · 0:4043% → 40%
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
56.6%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Whop PhilyorSimilar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-15
57.2%
INDIANA Penalty, Personal Foul (Mike Majette) to the Ind 31Similar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 25
OWN 31
+2
59.5%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Luke Timian for 2 yds to the Ind 33Similar
Q2 1:45
3RD & 23
OWN 33
+7
60.2%
Morgan Ellison run for 7 yds to the Ind 40Similar
Q2 1:34
4TH & 16
OWN 40
0
60.4%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 53 yds , Cody White returns for no gain to the MchSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:3961% → 60%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
61.3%
LJ Scott run for no gain to the MchSt 7Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+2
61.0%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the MchSt 9Similar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 8
OWN 9
+5
60.0%
LJ Scott run for 5 yds to the MchSt 14Similar
Q2 0:25
4TH & 3
OWN 14
+8
60.0%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 42 yds , J-Shun Harris II returns for 8 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -4 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-4
55.2%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Simmie Cobbs Jr. for a loss of 4 yards Simmie Cobbs Jr. fumbled, forced by Joe Bachie, recovered by Ind Ja'merez BowenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:3863% → 60%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
62.7%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+4
62.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 4 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q3 14:16
3RD & 6
OWN 27
0
61.5%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q3 14:08
4TH & 6
OWN 27
0
60.3%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 43 yds, fair catch by J-Shun Harris II at the Ind 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5342% → 40%
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
58.3%
Peyton Ramsey run for 1 yard to the Ind 31, backward pass to Luke Timian for 3 yards to the Ind 34Similar
Q3 13:18
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+2
57.3%
Peyton Ramsey run for 2 yds to the Ind 36Similar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 4
OWN 36
0
57.7%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Luke TimianSimilar
Q3 12:53
4TH & 4
OWN 36
0
59.7%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Cody White at the MchSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:1562% → 60%
Q3 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
61.6%
Madre London run for 3 yds to the MchSt 25Similar
Q3 11:42
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+2
61.8%
Madre London run for 2 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q3 11:05
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+14
60.7%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Madre London for 14 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
63.7%
Darrell Stewart Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 39Similar
Q3 10:12
2ND & 12
OWN 39
0
62.4%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q3 10:07
3RD & 12
OWN 39
0
60.7%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Hunter RisonSimilar
Q3 9:59
4TH & 12
OWN 39
0
59.8%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 48 yds, fair catch by J-Shun Harris II at the Ind 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 19FG
14 plays · 61 yds · 4:0741% → 50%
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-2
58.6%
Morgan Ellison run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ind 11Similar
Q3 9:28
2ND & 12
OWN 11
0
58.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to J-Shun Harris IISimilar
Q3 9:13
3RD & 12
OWN 11
+12
60.0%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ricky Brookins for 12 yds to the Ind 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
58.2%
Cole Gest run for 2 yds to the Ind 25Similar
Q3 8:31
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+14
58.2%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to J-Shun Harris II for 14 yds to the Ind 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
56.0%
Cole Gest run for 5 yds to the Ind 44Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+4
54.7%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Devonte Williams for 4 yds to the Ind 48Similar
Q3 7:33
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+4
54.8%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ryan Watercutter for 4 yds to the MchSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
53.8%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Simmie Cobbs Jr. for 9 yds to the MchSt 39Similar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+15
53.3%
Ramsey, Peyton pass incomplete to Cobbs Jr., Simmie, PENALTY MICHIGANST pass interference 15 yards to the MICHIGANST24, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN INDIANA.Similar
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
52.1%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Ryan WatercutterSimilar
Q3 6:23
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
52.4%
Morgan Ellison run for no gain to the MchSt 24Similar
Q3 5:51
3RD & 10
OPP 24
-2
54.0%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Simmie Cobbs Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 26Similar
Q3 5:31
4TH & 12
OPP 26
+44
50.4%
Griffin Oakes 44 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 20DOWNS
10 plays · 40 yds · 2:5051% → 52%
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
51.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 7 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
Q3 4:26
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-1
53.8%
LJ Scott run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 31Similar
Q3 3:49
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+9
49.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 9 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
54.1%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q3 3:04
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+18
51.7%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 18 yds to the Ind 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
55.3%
LJ Scott run for 7 yds to the Ind 35Similar
Q3 2:16
2ND & 3
OPP 35
0
57.5%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:10
3RD & 3
OPP 35
0
54.8%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:06
4TH & 3
OPP 35
0
52.0%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Cody WhiteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 21FG
13 plays · 63 yds · 4:2454% → 69%
Q3 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
46.0%
Peyton Ramsey run for 8 yds to the Ind 43Similar
Q3 1:42
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+4
44.0%
Morgan Ellison run for 4 yds to the Ind 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
43.6%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Morgan Ellison for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 1:02
2ND & 7
50
+4
42.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Luke Timian for 4 yds to the MchSt 46Similar
Q3 0:43
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+4
43.3%
Morgan Ellison run for 4 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
42.3%
Peyton Ramsey run for 3 yds to the MchSt 39Similar
Q4 14:42
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+12
42.0%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Morgan Ellison for 12 yds to the MchSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:28
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
40.0%
Morgan Ellison run for 1 yd to the MchSt 26Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+15
40.3%
Ramsey, Peyton pass incomplete to Williams, Devonte, PENALTY MICHIGANST pass interference (Frey, Chris) 15 yards to the MICHIGANST11, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN INDIANA.Similar
Q4 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
39.6%
Morgan Ellison run for 4 yds to the MchSt 7Similar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+3
39.4%
Morgan Ellison run for 3 yds to the MchSt 4Similar
Q4 12:54
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+2
40.8%
Morgan Ellison run for 2 yds to the MchSt 2Similar
Q4 12:29
4TH & 1
OPP 2
+20
30.6%
Griffin Oakes 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:4040% → 33%
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
39.5%
Lewerke, Brian pass incomplete to White, Cody, PENALTY INDIANA pass interference (Fant, Rashard) 10 yards to the MICHIGANST35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGANST.Similar
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
39.9%
LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the MchSt 39Similar
Q4 11:32
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+3
42.8%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the MchSt 42Similar
Q4 11:02
3RD & 3
OWN 42
-10
38.9%
Brian Lewerke sacked by Greg Gooch for a loss of 10 yards to the MchSt 32 Brian Lewerke fumbled, forced by Greg Gooch, recovered by MchSt Cole Chewins , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 10:35
4TH & 13
OWN 32
+55
32.5%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 45 yds , J-Shun Harris II returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 31 INDIANA Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Ind 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0971% → 69%
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
29.1%
Peyton Ramsey run for 1 yd to the Ind 13Similar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+3
29.4%
Morgan Ellison run for 3 yds to the Ind 16Similar
Q4 9:56
3RD & 6
OWN 16
-5
30.2%
INDIANA Penalty, False Start (Brandon Knight) to the Ind 11Similar
Q4 9:13
3RD & 11
OWN 11
+3
30.0%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ricky Brookins for 3 yds to the Ind 14Similar
Q4 9:07
4TH & 8
OWN 14
0
31.1%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Cody White at the MchSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 24TD
8 plays · 55 yds · 3:0238% → 71%
Q4 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
38.3%
Lewerke, Brian pass incomplete to Davis III, Felton, PENALTY INDIANA pass interference (Fant, Rashard) 15 yards to the INDIANA40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGANST.Similar
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
40.5%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Matt SokolSimilar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-9
39.9%
Brian Lewerke sacked by Chris Covington for a loss of 9 yards to the Ind 49Similar
Q4 7:46
3RD & 19
OPP 49
+16
34.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 16 yds to the Ind 33Similar
Q4 7:10
4TH & 3
OPP 33
+4
34.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Hunter Rison for 4 yds to the Ind 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+16
38.8%
Felton Davis III run for 16 yds to the Ind 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
38.4%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the Ind 10Similar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+10
71.3%
Felton Davis III 10 Yd pass from Brian Lewerke (Matt Coghlin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:2939% → 35%
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
61.3%
Cole Gest run for 4 yds to the Ind 29Similar
Q4 5:26
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
60.2%
Peyton Ramsey pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:13
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
62.5%
Peyton Ramsey run for no gain to the Ind 29Similar
Q4 5:04
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+3
64.9%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 38 yds , Cody White returns for 3 yds to the MchSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 26TD
9 plays · 64 yds · 2:5066% → 97%
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
66.2%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the MchSt 38Similar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
66.7%
Brian Lewerke run for no gain to the MchSt 38Similar
Q4 3:17
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+9
67.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Hunter Rison for 9 yds to the MchSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
72.0%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 7
50
-2
74.4%
LJ Scott run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 48Similar
Q4 2:26
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+34
72.2%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 34 yds to the Ind 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
97.0%
LJ Scott 18 Yd Run (Matt Coghlin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 27DOWNS
9 plays · 13 yds · 0:546% → 5%
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
94.2%
Peyton Ramsey run for 5 yds to the Ind 30Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
93.7%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Luke Timian for 7 yds to the Ind 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
93.6%
Ramsey, Peyton pass complete to Brookins, Ricky for no gain to the INDIANA37, PENALTY INDIANA holding (Baker, Delroy) 10 yards to the INDIANA27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:05
1ST & 20
OWN 27
+10
94.4%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Luke Timian for 10 yds to the Ind 37Similar
Q4 0:59
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
94.1%
Peyton Ramsey pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:54
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+1
94.8%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Luke Timian for 1 yd to the Ind 38Similar
Q4 0:48
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
94.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 28END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:2497% → 97%
Q4 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
97.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ind 40Similar
Q4 0:12
2ND & 12
OPP 40
-1
97.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:59
Felton Davis III 10 Yd pass from Brian Lewerke (Matt Coghlin Kick)
+32.9
TD · Q4 1:49
LJ Scott 18 Yd Run (Matt Coghlin Kick)
+24.8
FG · Q4 12:29
Griffin Oakes 20 yd FG GOOD
-10.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com