Try the model
MSU

Michigan State 30 at Minnesota 27

MINN
2017 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2017 · Huntington Bank Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MINN
modelMINN aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMINN scoreMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDFGTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-3.8MINN 6.7%Matt Coghlin 25 yd FG GOODAWAY 23 - HOME 6 · Q3 0:15
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 0:15 · Matt Coghlin 25 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+40.0+20.00−20.0−40.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 117Home team on offense−34.0Score differential−15.3Pregame prior−2.8Garbage-time factor−9.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−6.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q3 10:45: Matt Coghlin 35 yd FG GOOD — MSU win probability +7.6 pts (now 80%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 11:55: Demry Croft pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 28 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK) — MINN win probability +12.3 pts (now 23%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:15: LJ Scott run for 6 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +12.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:20: Demry Croft pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 17 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK) — MINN win probability +5.8 pts (now 13%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:06: Demry Croft pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 9 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK) — MINN win probability +30.5 pts (now 36%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MINN made the numbers' call on 4 of 8MSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00MINN 4th & 3 at MINN 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.1%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:12MSU 4th & 5 at MSU 31, tied
    Close callWent for it · 58.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.3%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    58.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:41MINN 4th & 7 at MSU 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.6%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    41.9%−0.7
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:22MSU 4th & 11 at MINN 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.2%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.5%
    68% to make
    Punt
    54.0%−1.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:25MINN 4th & 11 at MINN 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.3%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:34MINN 4th & 5 at MSU 29, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.0%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    37.3%−2.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:10MINN 4th & 3 at midfield, down 11
    Close callPunted · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.0%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:34MSU 4th & 5 at MINN 40, up 11
    Close callPunted · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    64.7%−0.9
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    65.0%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:12MSU 4th & 7 at MINN 48, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.8%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:45MSU 4th & 10 at MINN 17, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.4%−1.2
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.6%
    80% to make
    Punt
    66.5%−6.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:45MINN 4th & 5 at MINN 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.9%−0.9
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:47MSU 4th & 1 at MINN 16, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    79.2%−2.2
    81% to make
    Punt
    72.3%−9.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:15MSU 4th & 4 at MINN 7, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.8%−0.6
    91% to make
    Punt
    78.5%−8.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00MINN 4th & 5 at MINN 48, down 17
    Close callPunted · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.9%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:01MSU 4th & 13 at MINN 27, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.0%−1.3
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.4%
    62% to make
    Punt
    86.0%−4.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:01MINN 4th & 4 at MINN 33, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.7%−0.7
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MINN made the numbers' call on 2 of 3MSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 6:25MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:10MSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 11:55MINN Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 10:15MSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:20MINN Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:06MINN Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 2.9 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.5%−2.9
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MINNDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
38.9%
Rodney Smith run for 5 yds to the Minn 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+2
38.9%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Minn 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 31
0
38.9%
Conor Rhoda pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 31
0
38.9%
Ryan Santoso punt for 43 yds, downed at the MchSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2FUMBLE
4 plays · -23 yds · 0:0061% → 60%
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
39.5%
Madre London run for 7 yds to the MchSt 33Similar
Q1 13:12
2ND & 3
OWN 33
-2
39.4%
Brian Lewerke run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 31 Brian Lewerke fumbled, recovered by MchSt Brian LewerkeSimilar
Q1 13:12
3RD & 5
OWN 31
0
39.5%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Matt SokolSimilar
Q1 13:12
4TH & 5
OWN 31
-28
39.6%
Jake Hartbarger run for a loss of 28 yards to the MchSt 3 Jake Hartbarger fumbled, recovered by Minn Jaylen WatersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 3FG
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:0341% → 41%
Q1 11:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
40.5%
Conor Rhoda run for a loss of 4 yards to the MchSt 7 Conor Rhoda fumbled, recovered by Minn Conor Rhoda , return for no gain to the MchSt 7Similar
Q1 11:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
40.5%
Conor Rhoda pass incomplete to Tyler JohnsonSimilar
Q1 11:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
40.4%
Conor Rhoda pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
41.0%
Emmit Carpenter 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4FG
10 plays · 47 yds · 3:1959% → 59%
Q1 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
40.8%
LJ Scott run for 9 yds to the MchSt 38Similar
Q1 10:41
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+23
40.5%
LJ Scott run for 23 yds to the Minn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
40.3%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the Minn 36Similar
Q1 10:41
2ND & 7
OPP 36
0
40.3%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:41
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+13
40.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Hunter Rison for 13 yds to the Minn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-1
40.2%
LJ Scott run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 24Similar
Q1 10:41
2ND & 11
OPP 24
0
40.2%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to LJ Scott, broken up by Kamal MartinSimilar
Q1 10:41
3RD & 11
OPP 24
0
40.4%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q1 7:22
4TH & 11
OPP 24
+42
41.2%
Matt Coghlin 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 5FUMBLE
3 plays · -7 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
41.3%
Conor Rhoda pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:22
2ND & 10
OWN 15
-7
41.2%
Shannon Brooks run for a loss of 7 yards to the Minn 8 Shannon Brooks fumbled, recovered by MchSt Kenny WillekesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6TD
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:4060% → 63%
Q1 7:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
40.2%
Madre London run for 5 yds to the Minn 3Similar
Q1 6:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
37.4%
Madre London run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:0039% → 38%
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
38.5%
Conor Rhoda pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 2 yds to the Minn 27Similar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+21
38.6%
Conor Rhoda pass complete to Shannon Brooks for 21 yds to the Minn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
39.3%
Shannon Brooks run for 5 yds to the MchSt 47Similar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 5
OPP 47
-6
39.5%
Conor Rhoda run for a loss of 6 yards to the Minn 47Similar
Q1 6:25
3RD & 11
OWN 47
0
38.6%
Conor Rhoda pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:25
4TH & 11
OWN 47
0
38.2%
Ryan Santoso punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MchSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
38.1%
Brian Lewerke pass intercepted Duke McGhee return for no gain to the MchSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 9FG
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1640% → 41%
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
40.1%
Rodney Smith run for 1 yd to the MchSt 33Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+4
40.1%
Rodney Smith run for 4 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q1 3:50
3RD & 5
OPP 29
0
39.6%
Conor Rhoda pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:34
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+47
41.1%
Emmit Carpenter 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10TD
9 plays · 62 yds · 3:2461% → 67%
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
39.5%
LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the MchSt 42Similar
Q1 2:34
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+9
39.3%
LJ Scott run for 9 yds to the Minn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
39.1%
Brian Lewerke run for 3 yds to the Minn 46Similar
Q1 2:34
2ND & 7
OPP 46
-5
39.1%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, false start (LJ Scott) to the MchSt 49Similar
Q1 2:34
2ND & 12
OWN 49
+21
39.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 21 yds to the Minn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
38.6%
LJ Scott run for 6 yds to the Minn 24Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+24
33.5%
LJ Scott run for 24 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 48 yds · 0:0034% → 35%
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+17
33.9%
Conor Rhoda pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 17 yds to the Minn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
34.3%
Conor Rhoda pass complete to Nate Wozniak for 8 yds to the Minn 27Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+6
34.6%
Rodney Smith run for 6 yds to the Minn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
34.5%
Rodney Smith run for 10 yds to the Minn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
35.0%
Kobe McCrary run for 2 yds to the Minn 45Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 8
OWN 45
0
35.1%
Conor Rhoda pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:10
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+5
34.6%
Conor Rhoda pass complete to Kobe McCrary for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:10
4TH & 3
50
+6
34.8%
Ryan Santoso punt for 46 yds , Connor Heyward returns for 6 yds to the MchSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 50 yds · 0:0067% → 68%
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+17
32.7%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the MchSt 12 for a 1ST down MINNESOTA Penalty, personal foul (Kamal Martin) to the MchSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
32.4%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q2 10:34
2ND & 7
OWN 30
-1
32.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Connor Heyward for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 29Similar
Q2 10:34
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+26
33.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to LJ Scott for 26 yds to the Minn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
31.4%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q2 10:34
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+3
31.5%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the Minn 42Similar
Q2 10:34
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+2
31.6%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the Minn 40Similar
Q2 10:34
4TH & 5
OPP 40
+9
32.1%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 24 yds, fair catch by Antonio Shenault at the Minn 16 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the Minn 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 13INT
6 plays · 34 yds · 0:0030% → 33%
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
30.4%
Rodney Smith run for 1 yd to the Minn 32Similar
Q2 6:38
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+2
30.2%
Shannon Brooks run for 2 yds to the Minn 34Similar
Q2 6:38
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+21
29.9%
Demry Croft pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 21 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
32.0%
Shannon Brooks run for 4 yds to the MchSt 41Similar
Q2 6:38
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+6
32.0%
Demry Croft pass complete to Shannon Brooks for 6 yds to the MchSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+19
32.9%
Demry Croft pass intercepted Khari Willis return for 19 yds to the MchSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 1:4971% → 73%
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
28.7%
Madre London run for 4 yds to the MchSt 40Similar
Q2 3:01
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+9
28.3%
Madre London run for 9 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
28.1%
Darrell Stewart Jr. run for 3 yds to the Minn 48Similar
Q2 3:01
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+5
28.2%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Madre London for 5 yds to the Minn 43Similar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 2
OPP 43
-5
26.0%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Minn 48Similar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 7
OPP 48
0
26.5%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete, broken up by Blake CashmanSimilar
Q2 1:12
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
27.2%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
27.9%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the Minn 23Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
27.9%
Rodney Smith run for no gain to the Minn 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 16FG
10 plays · 58 yds · 4:1572% → 80%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
28.4%
LJ Scott run for 11 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
27.7%
Darrell Stewart Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 33
+14
28.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 14 yds to the MchSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
27.1%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
50
+33
27.1%
LJ Scott run for 33 yds to the Minn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
26.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for no gain to the Minn 17Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
27.0%
LJ Scott run for no gain to the Minn 17Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 17
0
27.4%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q3 10:45
4TH & 10
OPP 17
+35
19.9%
Matt Coghlin 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
21.2%
Demry Croft pass incomplete to Eric CarterSimilar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+5
20.9%
Demry Croft pass complete to Ko Kieft for 5 yds to the Minn 32Similar
Q3 10:45
3RD & 5
OWN 32
0
21.0%
Demry Croft pass incomplete to Mark WilliamsSimilar
Q3 10:45
4TH & 5
OWN 32
0
20.9%
Ryan Santoso punt for 68 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 18FG
19 plays · 73 yds · 9:1382% → 93%
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
17.8%
Madre London run for 3 yds to the MchSt 23Similar
Q3 9:28
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
17.8%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Collin LucasSimilar
Q3 8:47
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+17
17.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Hunter Rison for 17 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
15.9%
Madre London run for no gain to the MchSt 40Similar
Q3 8:47
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+25
16.2%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 25 yds to the Minn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
15.5%
Madre London run for 6 yds to the Minn 29Similar
Q3 8:47
2ND & 4
OPP 29
-1
15.4%
Madre London run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 30Similar
Q3 8:47
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+5
15.5%
Brian Lewerke run for 5 yds to the Minn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
15.4%
Madre London run for 3 yds to the Minn 22Similar
Q3 8:47
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+4
15.4%
Madre London run for 4 yds to the Minn 18Similar
Q3 8:47
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+2
15.6%
Madre London run for 2 yds to the Minn 16Similar
Q3 8:47
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+3
17.0%
Brian Lewerke run for 3 yds to the Minn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+9
10.4%
Madre London run for 9 yds to the Minn 4Similar
Q3 2:37
2ND & 1
OPP 4
0
10.4%
Madre London run for no gain to the Minn 4Similar
Q3 2:37
3RD & 1
OPP 4
-5
10.6%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, false start (Cole Chewins) to the Minn 9Similar
Q3 2:37
3RD & 6
OPP 9
+2
10.5%
Madre London run for 2 yds to the Minn 7Similar
Q3 0:15
4TH & 4
OPP 7
+25
6.7%
Matt Coghlin 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:1512% → 12%
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
11.5%
Rodney Smith run for 11 yds to the Minn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
12.2%
Rodney Smith run for 1 yd to the Minn 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 44
0
12.2%
Demry Croft pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+4
11.8%
Demry Croft run for 4 yds to the Minn 48Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
12.1%
Ryan Santoso punt for 29 yds, downed at the MchSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 20FUMBLE
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
5.7%
LJ Scott run for 7 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q4 13:26
2ND & 3
OWN 30
-3
5.6%
LJ Scott run for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 27 LJ Scott fumbled, forced by Steven Richardson, recovered by Minn Thomas BarberSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 21TD
2 plays · 27 yds · 0:5010% → 23%
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-1
10.3%
Shannon Brooks run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 28 Shannon Brooks fumbled, recovered by Minn Shannon BrooksSimilar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 11
OPP 28
+28
22.6%
Demry Croft pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 28 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 22TD
5 plays · 45 yds · 1:4083% → 96%
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+18
16.6%
Madre London run for 18 yds to the Minn 27 Madre London fumbled, forced by Kamal Martin, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+10
16.1%
LJ Scott run for 10 yds to the Minn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+11
16.1%
LJ Scott run for 11 yds to the Minn 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
3.8%
LJ Scott run for 6 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 23TD
10 plays · 61 yds · 4:556% → 13%
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-6
6.2%
Demry Croft sacked by Chris Frey for a loss of 6 yards to the Minn 33 Demry Croft fumbled, recovered by Minn Demry Croft , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 16
OWN 33
+12
5.7%
Demry Croft run for 12 yds to the Minn 45Similar
Q4 10:15
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+6
6.2%
Demry Croft pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 6 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
6.5%
Demry Croft run for 6 yds to the MchSt 43Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+1
6.8%
Demry Croft run for 1 yd to the MchSt 42Similar
Q4 10:15
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+21
6.9%
Demry Croft pass complete to Mark Williams for 21 yds to the MchSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
7.3%
Shannon Brooks run for 4 yds to the MchSt 17Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 6
OPP 17
0
7.3%
Demry Croft pass incomplete to Tyler JohnsonSimilar
Q4 5:20
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+17
13.1%
Demry Croft pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 17 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 24MISSED FG
10 plays · 19 yds · 2:1991% → 94%
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+22
8.7%
LJ Scott run for 22 yds to the Minn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
8.4%
LJ Scott run for no gain to the Minn 24Similar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-2
7.1%
LJ Scott run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 26Similar
Q4 4:21
3RD & 12
OPP 26
-10
7.7%
Scott, LJ rush for 24 yards to the MINN2 (Huff, Jacob;Celestin, J), PENALTY MSU holding (Higby, Tyler) 10 yards to the MINN36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:21
3RD & 22
OPP 36
+9
8.0%
LJ Scott run for 9 yds to the Minn 27Similar
Q4 3:01
4TH & 13
OPP 27
+45
5.9%
Matt Coghlin 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 25TD
11 plays · 73 yds · 1:554% → 36%
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
4.3%
Demry Croft pass incomplete to Tyler Johnson, broken up by Matt MorrisseySimilar
Q4 3:01
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+6
4.1%
Demry Croft pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 6 yds to the Minn 33Similar
Q4 3:01
3RD & 4
OWN 33
0
4.4%
Demry Croft pass incomplete to Mark WilliamsSimilar
Q4 3:01
4TH & 4
OWN 33
+22
4.2%
Demry Croft pass complete to Mark Williams for 22 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
5.3%
Demry Croft pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:01
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-6
5.1%
Demry Croft sacked by Kenny Willekes for a loss of 6 yards to the Minn 49Similar
Q4 3:01
3RD & 16
OWN 49
+20
4.2%
Demry Croft run for 20 yds to the MchSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+22
6.4%
Demry Croft pass complete to Shannon Brooks for 22 yds to the MchSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
5.1%
Demry Croft pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
35.5%
Demry Croft pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 9 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 26END OF GAME
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:0092% → 91%
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
8.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 12
50
-2
8.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:06
Demry Croft pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 9 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)
+30.5
TD · Q4 11:55
Demry Croft pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 28 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)
+12.3
TD · Q4 10:15
LJ Scott run for 6 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)
-12.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com