Try the model
RUTG

Rutgers 35 at Illinois 24

ILL
2017 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2017 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadRUTG aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scoreRUTG score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:58 · Blake Hayes punt for 42 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 120Home team on offense−25.8Score differential−14.7Garbage-time factor−8.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.6Pregame prior+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:07: Josh Hicks run for 5 yds for a TD, (Andrew Harte KICK) — RUTG win probability +7.5 pts (now 58%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:10: Ra'Von Bonner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK) — ILL win probability +7.6 pts (now 52%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. TD · Q2 4:59: Gus Edwards run for 7 yds for a TD, (Andrew Harte KICK) — RUTG win probability +9.0 pts (now 63%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:11: Gus Edwards run for 5 yds for a TD, (Andrew Harte KICK) — RUTG win probability +13.4 pts (now 91%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:56: Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 30 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK) — ILL win probability +11.4 pts (now 18%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 8 of 10RUTG made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00RUTG 4th & 4 at RUTG 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.8%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:52ILL 4th & 7 at ILL 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:26ILL 4th & 17 at RUTG 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.5%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.7%
    42% to make
    Punt
    54.6%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:18ILL 4th & 9 at RUTG 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.0%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.2%
    66% to make
    Punt
    48.3%−2.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:10ILL 4th & 1 at RUTG 1, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    39.4%−1.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    34.8%−6.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:52RUTG 4th & 1 at ILL 27, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    60.5%−1.4
    62% to make
    Punt
    57.1%−4.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:34ILL 4th & 3 at ILL 33, down 11
    Close callPunted · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.0%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:13RUTG 4th & 8 at RUTG 19, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.1%−1.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:39ILL 4th & 7 at RUTG 44, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    28.9%−1.5
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    30.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:46RUTG 4th & 6 at RUTG 15, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.4%−1.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:11ILL 4th & 17 at ILL 18, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%−3.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:58ILL 4th & 10 at RUTG 42, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.9%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    12.1%−0.9
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    13.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00RUTG 4th & 17 at RUTG 27, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%−2.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:31ILL 4th & 10 at ILL 27, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.9%−1.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:00RUTG 4th & 12 at RUTG 35, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.7%−1.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:11ILL 4th & 3 at RUTG 9, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    2.1%
    89% to make
    Punt
    1.1%−1.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ILL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3RUTG made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 7:21RUTG Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:07RUTG Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:10ILL Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:59RUTG Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:11RUTG Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:56ILL Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.2%−0.4
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:32RUTG Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:11ILL Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
RUTGDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
52.6%
Gus Edwards run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-10
52.6%
Gus Edwards run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 31 RUTGERS Penalty, personal foul (Tariq Cole) to the Rutgr 16Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+15
52.6%
Gus Edwards run for 15 yds to the Rutgr 31Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
52.6%
Ryan Anderson punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Illin 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q1 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
52.8%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 2 yds to the Illin 37Similar
Q1 13:52
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+1
52.8%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 1 yd to the Illin 38Similar
Q1 13:52
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
52.8%
Jeff George Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:52
4TH & 7
OWN 38
+5
52.7%
Blake Hayes punt for 47 yds , Janarion Grant returns for 5 yds to the Rutgr 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 3FUMBLE
1 play · 9 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
52.9%
Robert Martin run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 29 Robert Martin fumbled, forced by Stanley Green, recovered by Illin James CrawfordSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 4MISSED FG
6 plays · -7 yds · 2:5154% → 53%
Q1 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
53.5%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 28Similar
Q1 12:17
2ND & 9
OPP 28
-5
53.5%
ILLINOIS Penalty, false start (Louis Dorsey) to the Rutgr 33Similar
Q1 12:17
2ND & 14
OPP 33
0
53.3%
Reggie Corbin run for no gain to the Rutgr 33Similar
Q1 12:17
3RD & 14
OPP 33
-15
53.1%
George, Jr., J. pass complete to Dudek,Mike for 25 yards to the RU8, out-of-bounds, PENALTY ILL personal foul (Corbin,Reggie) 15 yards to the RU48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:17
3RD & 29
OPP 48
+12
53.1%
Jeff George Jr. run for 12 yds to the Rutgr 36Similar
Q1 9:26
4TH & 17
OPP 36
+54
53.1%
Chase McLaughlin 54 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 5TD
5 plays · 64 yds · 2:0547% → 51%
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
53.1%
Giovanni Rescigno pass complete to Dacoven Bailey for 7 yds to the Rutgr 43Similar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+21
52.8%
Gus Edwards run for 11 yds to the ILLINOIS 46 for a 1ST down ILLINOIS Penalty, Defensive holding (10 Yards) to the Illin 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+14
52.7%
Raheem Blackshear run for 14 yds to the Illin 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
52.5%
Gus Edwards run for 3 yds to the Illin 19Similar
Q1 7:21
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+19
49.4%
Raheem Blackshear run for 19 yds for a TD, (Andrew Harte KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 6FG
10 plays · 42 yds · 4:0351% → 52%
Q1 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
50.6%
George, Jr., J. pass complete to Davis,Trenard for 5 yards to the ILL38 (Gray, K.J.), PENALTY RU offside defense (Previlon, W.) 5 yards to the ILL38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:21
1ST & 5
OWN 38
+7
51.2%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 7 yds to the Illin 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
51.1%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Dominic Thieman for 15 yds to the Rutgr 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+14
51.5%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 14 yds to the Rutgr 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
51.8%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 23Similar
Q1 7:21
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+3
51.8%
Dre Brown run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 20Similar
Q1 7:21
3RD & 4
OPP 20
-5
51.4%
ILLINOIS Penalty, false start (Vederian Lowe) to the Rutgr 25Similar
Q1 7:21
3RD & 9
OPP 25
0
51.4%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Dominic ThiemanSimilar
Q1 3:18
4TH & 9
OPP 25
+43
52.1%
Chase McLaughlin 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 7TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:1148% → 58%
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
51.8%
Gus Edwards run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 27Similar
Q1 3:18
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
51.7%
Raheem Blackshear run for no gain to the Rutgr 27Similar
Q1 3:18
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+13
52.2%
Giovanni Rescigno pass complete to Janarion Grant for 13 yds to the Rutgr 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
51.0%
Gus Edwards run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rutgr 39Similar
Q1 3:18
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+6
51.4%
Gus Edwards run for 6 yds to the Rutgr 45Similar
Q1 3:18
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+33
51.1%
Giovanni Rescigno pass complete to Gus Edwards for 33 yds to the Illin 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
49.5%
Giovanni Rescigno run for 6 yds to the Illin 16Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+9
49.5%
Josh Hicks run for 9 yds to the Illin 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
49.5%
Josh Hicks run for 2 yds to the Illin 5Similar
Q2 13:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
42.0%
Josh Hicks run for 5 yds for a TD, (Andrew Harte KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 8TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:5744% → 52%
Q2 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
44.1%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Louis Dorsey for 19 yds to the Illin 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
45.0%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Carmoni Green for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:07
2ND & 4
50
0
45.6%
Ra'Von Bonner run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:07
3RD & 4
50
+9
45.2%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Mike Dudek for 9 yds to the Rutgr 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+32
45.7%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 32 yds to the Rutgr 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
46.4%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 5Similar
Q2 13:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
46.4%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 4Similar
Q2 9:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
44.3%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 1Similar
Q2 8:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
51.9%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 9TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:1150% → 63%
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
49.6%
Gus Edwards run for 8 yds to the Rutgr 33Similar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+6
48.8%
Giovanni Rescigno run for 6 yds to the Rutgr 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+47
48.2%
Giovanni Rescigno pass complete to Janarion Grant for 33 yds to the ILLINOIS 28 for a 1ST down ILLINOIS Penalty, roughing passer (James Crawford) to the Illin 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
47.3%
Gus Edwards run for 4 yds to the Illin 10Similar
Q2 5:52
2ND & 6
OPP 10
-10
46.6%
Edwards, Gus rush for 10 yards to the ILL0, clock 05:52, PENALTY RU holding (Nash, Myles) 10 yards to the ILL20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:52
2ND & 16
OPP 20
+9
46.7%
Rescigno, G. pass incomplete to Melton, Bo (Dunlap,Jaylen), PENALTY ILL pass interference (Dunlap,Jaylen) 9 yards to the ILL11, 1ST DOWN RU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
46.6%
Giovanni Rescigno run for 4 yds to the Illin 7Similar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+7
37.4%
Gus Edwards run for 7 yds for a TD, (Andrew Harte KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 10INT
5 plays · 15 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
39.8%
George, Jr., J. pass incomplete to Bonner,RaVon, PENALTY RU 12 men on the field (Joseph, S.) 15 yards to the ILL45, 1ST DOWN ILL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
40.7%
Ra'Von Bonner run for no gain to the Illin 45Similar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
40.4%
Jeff George Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:59
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+26
39.7%
Jeff George Jr. pass intercepted Jawuan Harris return for 26 yds to the Illin 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 11FUMBLE
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:0064% → 63%
Q2 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
36.3%
Giovanni Rescigno pass incomplete to Raheem BlackshearSimilar
Q2 3:52
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+3
36.4%
Gus Edwards run for 3 yds to the Illin 33Similar
Q2 3:52
3RD & 7
OPP 33
+6
36.6%
Giovanni Rescigno run for 6 yds to the Illin 27Similar
Q2 3:52
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+2
37.4%
Gus Edwards run for 2 yds to the Illin 26 Gus Edwards fumbled, forced by Ayo Shogbonyo, recovered by Illin James CrawfordSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0038% → 37%
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-3
38.0%
Jeff George Jr. sacked by Sebastian Joseph for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 23Similar
Q2 2:34
2ND & 13
OWN 23
+10
37.3%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 10 yds to the Illin 33Similar
Q2 2:34
3RD & 3
OWN 33
0
37.6%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Mike Dudek, broken up by Deonte RobertsSimilar
Q2 2:34
4TH & 3
OWN 33
+2
37.3%
Blake Hayes punt for 47 yds , Janarion Grant returns for 2 yds to the Rutgr 35 RUTGERS Penalty, Offensive holding (Raheem Blackshear) to the Rutgr 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
34.8%
Josh Hicks run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 17Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+4
34.6%
Josh Hicks run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 14INT
10 plays · 59 yds · 0:0034% → 36%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
33.9%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Malik Turner for 4 yds to the Illin 19Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+5
34.0%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Mike Dudek for 5 yds Mike Dudek fumbled, forced by Jawuan Harris,Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+6
33.9%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 6 yds to the Illin 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
34.5%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 7 yds to the Illin 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+5
35.4%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 5 yds to the Illin 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+31
35.6%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 31 yds to the Rutgr 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
38.0%
Dre Brown run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 26
0
38.0%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Dre BrownSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 26
0
36.4%
Jeff George Jr. pass intercepted K.J. Gray return for no gain to the Rutgr 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:0068% → 67%
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-8
31.6%
Blackshear, R. rush for 2 yards to the RU19 (Dunlap,Jaylen;Williams,B.), PENALTY RU personal foul (Applefield, M.) 8 yards to the RU9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:13
1ST & 18
OWN 9
+2
32.1%
Gus Edwards run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 11Similar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 16
OWN 11
-4
31.9%
Giovanni Rescigno pass complete to Janarion Grant for 3 yds to the Rutgr 14 RUTGERS Penalty, Offensive holding (Jerome Washington) to the Rutgr 7Similar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 20
OWN 7
0
32.2%
Giovanni Rescigno pass incomplete to Dacoven Bailey, broken up by Tito OdenigboSimilar
Q3 11:13
3RD & 20
OWN 7
+12
32.8%
Gus Edwards run for 12 yds to the Rutgr 19Similar
Q3 11:13
4TH & 8
OWN 19
+9
33.1%
Ryan Anderson punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Illin 42 , Mike Dudek returns for 9 yds to the Illin 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0030% → 29%
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
30.4%
Dre Brown run for 6 yds to the Illin 48Similar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+5
31.1%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Trenard Davis for 5 yds to the Rutgr 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
31.6%
Dre Brown run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 46Similar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 9
OPP 46
-5
31.5%
ILLINOIS Penalty, false start (Louis Dorsey) to the Illin 49Similar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 14
OWN 49
+7
29.8%
Jeff George Jr. run for 7 yds to the Rutgr 44Similar
Q3 8:39
3RD & 7
OPP 44
0
31.0%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q3 8:39
4TH & 7
OPP 44
0
29.0%
Blake Hayes punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Janarion Grant at the Rutgr 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0073% → 72%
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
27.0%
Gus Edwards run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 15Similar
Q3 5:46
2ND & 6
OWN 15
0
27.0%
Giovanni Rescigno pass incomplete to Max Anthony, broken up by James CrawfordSimilar
Q3 5:46
3RD & 6
OWN 15
0
27.8%
Giovanni Rescigno pass incomplete to Bo MeltonSimilar
Q3 5:46
4TH & 6
OWN 15
0
28.4%
Ryan Anderson punt for 60 yds , Carmoni Green returns for no gain to the Illin 21 Carmoni Green fumbled, recovered by Rutgr Dacoven BaileySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 18TD
3 plays · 21 yds · 0:3578% → 91%
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+16
22.1%
Giovanni Rescigno run for 16 yds to the Illin 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
8.7%
Gus Edwards run for 5 yds for a TD, (Andrew Harte KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
14.1%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Louis DorseySimilar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
13.9%
Ra'Von Bonner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 24Similar
Q3 4:11
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-6
13.7%
Jeff George Jr. sacked by Kemoko Turay and Myles Nash for a loss of 6 yards to the Illin 18Similar
Q3 4:11
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
13.7%
Blake Hayes punt for 44 yds, downed at the Rutgr 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 20FUMBLE
2 plays · 15 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q3 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
7.3%
Robert Martin run for 8 yds to the Rutgr 46Similar
Q3 2:48
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+5
7.1%
Giovanni Rescigno run for 5 yds to the Illin 47 Giovanni Rescigno fumbled, forced by James Crawford, recovered by Illin Jamal MilanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q3 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
12.8%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 11 yds to the Rutgr 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
13.3%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Ricky SmallingSimilar
Q3 1:58
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
13.2%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Louis Dorsey for no gain to the Rutgr 42Similar
Q3 1:58
3RD & 10
OPP 42
0
12.9%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Trenard Davis, broken up by Damon HayesSimilar
Q3 1:58
4TH & 10
OPP 42
0
12.5%
Blake Hayes punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:1894% → 93%
Q3 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
6.3%
Raheem Blackshear run for 14 yds to the Rutgr 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-2
6.2%
Robert Martin run for a loss of 2 yards to the Rutgr 32Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 32
-5
6.3%
RUTGERS Penalty, false start (Kamaal Seymour) to the Rutgr 27Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 27
-4
6.4%
Giovanni Rescigno sacked by James Crawford for a loss of 4 yards to the Rutgr 23Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 21
OWN 23
+4
7.0%
Robert Martin run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 27Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 17
OWN 27
0
7.2%
Ryan Anderson punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Illin 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q4 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
6.8%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Ricky SmallingSimilar
Q4 12:31
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
6.7%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Louis DorseySimilar
Q4 12:31
3RD & 10
OWN 27
0
6.7%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Malik Turner, broken up by Damon Hayes ILLINOIS Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 12:31
4TH & 10
OWN 27
+10
6.6%
Blake Hayes punt for 46 yds , Janarion Grant returns for 10 yds to the Rutgr 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
4.8%
Gus Edwards run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rutgr 36Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 11
OWN 36
-1
4.9%
Raheem Blackshear run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rutgr 35Similar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 12
OWN 35
0
5.2%
Giovanni Rescigno pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:00
4TH & 12
OWN 35
0
5.3%
Ryan Anderson punt for 50 yds, downed at the Illin 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 25TD
5 plays · 85 yds · 2:275% → 18%
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
5.1%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Ra'Von Bonner for 7 yds to the Illin 22Similar
Q4 10:23
2ND & 3
OWN 22
-5
5.3%
Ra'Von Bonner run for a loss of 5 yards to the Illin 17Similar
Q4 10:23
3RD & 8
OWN 17
+50
5.0%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Trenard Davis for 50 yds to the Rutgr 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
6.4%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 30Similar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+30
17.7%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 30 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 26TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:2489% → 99%
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
11.4%
Gus Edwards run for no gain to the Rutgr 25Similar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
11.5%
Johnathan Lewis run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 26Similar
Q4 6:32
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+13
10.3%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Gus Edwards for 13 yds to the Rutgr 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
8.9%
Kyle Bolin pass incomplete to Jerome WashingtonSimilar
Q4 6:32
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+41
9.2%
Raheem Blackshear run for 41 yds to the Illin 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
8.5%
Gus Edwards run for 1 yd to the Illin 19Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+3
6.3%
Gus Edwards run for 3 yds to the Illin 16Similar
Q4 4:32
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+16
1.5%
Robert Martin run for 16 yds for a TD, (Andrew Harte KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 27TD
12 plays · 87 yds · 3:211% → 3%
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+30
1.0%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Dominic Thieman for 30 yds to the Illin 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
1.1%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Dominic ThiemanSimilar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+9
1.1%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Malik Turner for 9 yds to the Rutgr 48Similar
Q4 4:32
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+15
1.0%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Carmoni Green for 15 yds to the Rutgr 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
1.3%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+3
1.3%
Jeff George Jr. run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 30Similar
Q4 4:32
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+14
1.2%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Dominic Thieman for 14 yds to the Rutgr 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
1.3%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+7
1.3%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 7 yds to the Rutgr 9Similar
Q4 4:32
3RD & 3
OPP 9
0
1.1%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q4 1:11
4TH & 3
OPP 9
+9
3.3%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Louis Dorsey for 9 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 28END OF GAME
3 plays · -6 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-3
3.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Rutgr 46Similar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 13
OWN 46
-3
3.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Rutgr 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:11
Gus Edwards run for 5 yds for a TD, (Andrew Harte KICK)
-13.4
TD · Q4 7:56
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 30 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK)
+11.4
TD · Q2 4:59
Gus Edwards run for 7 yds for a TD, (Andrew Harte KICK)
-9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com