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Northwestern 37 at Maryland 21

MD
2017 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2017 · SECU Stadium
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Win probability · MD
modelMD aheadNU aheadconfidence bandkey playMD scoreNU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:53 · Lorenzo Harrison III run for 1 yd to the Nwest 14 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 195Home team on offense−36.8Pregame prior−0.2Score differential−18.2Garbage-time factor−16.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−10.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−7.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:14: Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D.J. Moore for 52 yds for a TD, (Henry Darmstadter KICK) — MD win probability +7.2 pts (now 53%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:35: Clayton Thorson run for 18 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK) — NU win probability +14.4 pts (now 62%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:24: Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 14 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK) — NU win probability +8.1 pts (now 72%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 8:25: Charlie Kuhbander 34 yd FG GOOD — NU win probability +6.8 pts (now 79%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:33: Taivon Jacobs 20 Yd pass from Max Bortenschlager (Henry Darmstadter Kick) — MD win probability +14.2 pts (now 42%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MD made the numbers' call on 10 of 11NU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00NU 4th & 10 at MD 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.1%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    55.0%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    55.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:19MD 4th & 10 at MD 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:28NU 4th & 7 at NU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:31MD 4th & 12 at NU 34, up 7
    Close callPunted · 49.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.3%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    49.5%
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    49.3%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:31NU 4th & 10 at MD 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.9%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.4%
    70% to make
    Punt
    43.4%−3.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00MD 4th & 12 at MD 27, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.8%−1.0
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:36NU 4th & 1 at MD 49, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    45.3%−1.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:10NU 4th & 7 at MD 26, down 4
    Close callWent for it · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.7%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    46.1%
    64% to make
    Punt
    42.0%−4.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:35MD 4th & 6 at MD 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.4%−0.8
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:55MD 4th & 10 at MD 27, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.0%−1.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 14:55NU 4th & 12 at MD 47, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.8%−1.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:49MD 4th & 4 at MD 23, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.3%−0.3
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:25NU 4th & 11 at MD 16, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.0%−1.7
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.7%
    81% to make
    Punt
    62.1%−7.6
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:32MD 4th & 14 at MD 16, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.7%−4.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:02NU 4th & 9 at MD 15, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.6%−2.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.7%
    83% to make
    Punt
    58.8%−11.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:02MD 4th & 7 at NU 44, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    22.9%−2.3
    27% to make
    Punt
    25.1%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:05NU 4th & 2 at MD 22, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    76.4%−1.7
    72% to make
    Punt
    66.7%−11.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:11MD 4th & 5 at NU 45, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    12.9%−1.9
    25% to make
    Punt
    13.6%−1.2
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:33NU 4th & 1 at MD 46, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    84.9%−3.9
    23% to make
    Punt
    86.0%−2.7
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:53MD 4th & 1 at NU 15, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    2.8%−0.8
    83% to make
    Punt
    2.0%−1.6
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:53MD 4th & 1 at NU 5, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.7%
    67% to convert
    Field goal
    2.8%−0.9
    92% to make
    Punt
    1.9%−1.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MD made the numbers' call on 3 of 3NU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 8:46MD Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:35NU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:14MD Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:35NU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:24NU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:33MD Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:54NU Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 40 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
42.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn NagelSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+8
42.1%
Clayton Thorson run for 8 yds to the Nwest 25Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+32
42.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Macan Wilson for 32 yds to the Mary 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
42.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Justin JacksonSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
42.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Garrett Dickerson, broken up by Josh WoodsSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 43
0
42.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Garrett DickersonSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 10
OPP 43
+21
42.1%
Hunter Niswander punt for 36 yds, fair catch by D.J. Moore at the Mary 7 NORTHWESTERN Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the Mary 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0043% → 42%
Q1 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
42.6%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to Jacquille VeiiSimilar
Q1 13:19
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
42.6%
Ty Johnson run for no gain to the Mary 22Similar
Q1 13:19
3RD & 10
OWN 22
0
42.5%
Max Bortenschlager pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:19
4TH & 10
OWN 22
+7
42.4%
Wade Lees punt for 48 yds , Riley Lees returns for 7 yds to the Nwest 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
42.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Macan Wilson for 7 yds to the Nwest 44Similar
Q1 12:28
2ND & 3
OWN 44
0
42.6%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn NagelSimilar
Q1 12:28
3RD & 3
OWN 44
-4
42.6%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Cavon Walker for a loss of 4 yards to the Nwest 40Similar
Q1 12:28
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
42.9%
Hunter Niswander punt for 29 yds, downed at the Mary 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 4TD
7 plays · 69 yds · 2:2743% → 47%
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
43.3%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D.J. Moore for 5 yds to the Mary 36Similar
Q1 11:13
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+21
43.5%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D.J. Moore for 21 yds to the Nwest 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+18
43.7%
Max Bortenschlager run for 18 yds to the Nwest 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
43.8%
Bortenschlager pass incomplete to Moore, D., PENALTY NU holding (Hartage, Montre) 10 yards to the NU15, 1ST DOWN UMD, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-3
43.8%
Ty Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 18Similar
Q1 11:13
2ND & 13
OPP 18
+6
43.7%
Max Bortenschlager run for 6 yds to the Nwest 12Similar
Q1 8:46
3RD & 7
OPP 12
+12
46.7%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D.J. Moore for 12 yds for a TD, (Henry Darmstadter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 5INT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0054% → 53%
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
46.2%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 23Similar
Q1 8:41
2ND & 6
OWN 23
-5
46.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for a loss of 5 yards to the Nwest 18Similar
Q1 8:41
3RD & 11
OWN 18
0
46.6%
Clayton Thorson pass intercepted Darnell Savage Jr. return for no gain to the Nwest 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0048% → 47%
Q1 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
47.9%
Max Bortenschlager pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:31
2ND & 10
OPP 32
-2
47.9%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Taivon Jacobs for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 34Similar
Q1 7:31
3RD & 12
OPP 34
0
47.4%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete MARYLAND Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 7:31
4TH & 12
OPP 34
0
46.9%
Wade Lees punt for 25 yds, fair catch by Riley Lees at the Nwest 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 7FG
16 plays · 68 yds · 6:0352% → 52%
Q1 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+10
47.8%
Justin Jackson run for 10 yds to the Nwest 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
47.7%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 22Similar
Q1 6:34
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+3
47.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 3 yds to the Nwest 25Similar
Q1 6:34
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+5
47.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 5 yds to the Nwest 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
47.6%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 34Similar
Q1 6:34
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+19
47.4%
Justin Jackson run for 19 yds to the Mary 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
46.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Charlie Fessler for 8 yds to the Mary 39Similar
Q1 6:34
2ND & 2
OPP 39
0
46.7%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Bennett SkowronekSimilar
Q1 6:34
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+4
46.8%
Clayton Thorson run for 4 yds to the Mary 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
46.4%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Jeremy LarkinSimilar
Q1 6:34
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+1
46.4%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Mary 34Similar
Q1 6:34
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+11
46.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Riley Lees for 11 yds to the Mary 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
46.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Bennett SkowronekSimilar
Q1 6:34
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
46.4%
Jeremy Larkin run for no gain to the Mary 23Similar
Q1 6:34
3RD & 10
OPP 23
0
46.9%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:31
4TH & 10
OPP 23
+40
47.7%
Charlie Kuhbander 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 0:2748% → 47%
Q1 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
48.0%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 5 yds to the Mary 24Similar
Q1 0:27
2ND & 5
OWN 24
0
48.1%
Max Bortenschlager pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 24
+5
47.5%
Max Bortenschlager run for 5 yds to the Mary 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
48.3%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 2 yds to the Mary 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+2
48.3%
Max Bortenschlager run for 2 yds to the Mary 33Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 33
-6
47.9%
Max Bortenschlager sacked by Sam Miller for a loss of 6 yards to the Mary 27Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 27
0
47.0%
Wade Lees punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Riley Lees at the Nwest 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 9TD
10 plays · 71 yds · 3:1051% → 59%
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
48.8%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 30Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 9
OWN 30
0
48.9%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Macan Wilson, broken up by Antoine BrooksSimilar
Q2 12:09
3RD & 9
OWN 30
-10
49.6%
Thorson, C. pass complete to Nagel, Flynn for 17 yards to the NU47 (Woods, J.), PENALTY NU holding 10 yards to the NU20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:09
3RD & 19
OWN 20
+23
49.9%
Justin Jackson run for 23 yds to the Nwest 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+30
47.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Charlie Fessler for 30 yds to the Mary 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+14
45.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 14 yds to the Mary 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
45.8%
Justin Jackson run for 6 yds to the Mary 7Similar
Q2 12:09
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+2
45.8%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Mary 5Similar
Q2 9:35
3RD & 2
OPP 5
+5
41.3%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 10TD
5 plays · 73 yds · 1:1544% → 53%
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
43.6%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Mary 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
45.5%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D.J. Moore for 4 yds to the Mary 46Similar
Q2 9:29
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+2
45.7%
Ty Johnson run for 2 yds to the Mary 48Similar
Q2 8:14
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+52
52.9%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D.J. Moore for 52 yds for a TD, (Henry Darmstadter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 11TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 4:3349% → 62%
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
50.7%
Jeremy Larkin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 24Similar
Q2 8:08
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+8
51.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 8 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
Q2 8:08
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+10
50.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Macan Wilson for 10 yds to the Nwest 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
48.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Macan Wilson for 5 yds to the Nwest 47Similar
Q2 8:08
2ND & 5
OWN 47
0
48.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Riley LeesSimilar
Q2 8:08
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+4
48.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 4 yds to the Mary 49Similar
Q2 5:36
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+3
49.9%
Clayton Thorson run for 3 yds to the Mary 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+17
48.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 17 yds to the Mary 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
47.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Bennett SkowronekSimilar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+3
47.5%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Mary 26Similar
Q2 5:36
3RD & 7
OPP 26
0
48.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Riley LeesSimilar
Q2 4:10
4TH & 7
OPP 26
+8
52.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Riley Lees for 8 yds to the Mary 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
38.1%
Clayton Thorson run for 18 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0043% → 41%
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
42.8%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D.J. Moore for 4 yds to the Mary 29Similar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
43.0%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to Taivon Jacobs, broken up by Kyle QueiroSimilar
Q2 3:35
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
42.0%
Max Bortenschlager pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:35
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
40.9%
Wade Lees punt for 32 yds, downed at the Nwest 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 13TD
9 plays · 61 yds · 2:2160% → 72%
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
39.8%
Riley Lees run for 4 yds to the Nwest 43Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+4
39.7%
Jeremy Larkin run for 4 yds to the Nwest 47Similar
Q2 2:45
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+4
40.0%
Jeremy Larkin run for 4 yds to the Mary 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
39.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Jeremy Larkin for 11 yds to the Mary 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
39.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Cameron GreenSimilar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+20
39.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Riley Lees for 20 yds to the Mary 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
37.8%
Clayton Thorson run for 4 yds to the Mary 14Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+14
28.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 14 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 14END OF HALF
3 plays · 17 yds · 0:0029% → 30%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+10
29.1%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Jahrvis Davenport for 10 yds to the Mary 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
30.0%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D.J. Moore for 7 yds to the Mary 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0031% → 29%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
30.9%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 5 yds to the Mary 32Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 5
OWN 32
-5
31.3%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for a loss of 5 yards to the Mary 27Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 10
OWN 27
0
29.5%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to D.J. MooreSimilar
Q3 14:55
4TH & 10
OWN 27
0
28.9%
Wade Lees punt for 33 yds , Riley Lees returns for no gain to the Mary 27 MARYLAND Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the Mary 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0070% → 68%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-2
30.0%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 47Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 12
OPP 47
0
30.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn NagelSimilar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 12
OPP 47
0
31.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Bennett SkowronekSimilar
Q3 14:55
4TH & 12
OPP 47
0
32.2%
Hunter Niswander punt for 40 yds , Jahrvis Davenport returns for no gain to the Mary 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:0029% → 28%
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+10
28.9%
Ty Johnson run for 10 yds to the Mary 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
29.2%
Ty Johnson run for 4 yds to the Mary 21Similar
Q3 12:49
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+2
29.2%
Max Bortenschlager run for 2 yds to the Mary 23Similar
Q3 12:49
3RD & 4
OWN 23
0
28.3%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete, broken up by Alex MillerSimilar
Q3 12:49
4TH & 4
OWN 23
0
27.7%
Wade Lees punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 18FG
9 plays · 43 yds · 2:2872% → 79%
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+20
27.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Macan Wilson for 20 yds to the Mary 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
27.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 6 yds to the Mary 33Similar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+5
27.3%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Mary 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
27.3%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Mary 25Similar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+10
27.3%
Justin Jackson run for 10 yds to the Mary 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
27.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Riley LeesSimilar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 10
OPP 15
-1
27.3%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 16Similar
Q3 10:53
3RD & 11
OPP 16
0
28.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Cameron Green, broken up by Josh WoodsSimilar
Q3 8:25
4TH & 11
OPP 16
+34
21.5%
Charlie Kuhbander 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 19TD
12 plays · 79 yds · 3:4824% → 42%
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-6
24.1%
Max Bortenschlager run for a loss of 6 yards to the Mary 15Similar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 16
OWN 15
0
23.8%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to Jacquille VeiiSimilar
Q3 8:21
3RD & 16
OWN 15
+19
23.0%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D.J. Moore for 19 yds to the Mary 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
24.6%
Harrison, L. rush for loss of 2 yards to the UMD32 (Queiro, Kyle), PENALTY NU face mask (Queiro, Kyle) 15 yards to the UMD49, 1ST DOWN UMD, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
25.8%
Ty Johnson run for 8 yds to the Nwest 43Similar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 2
OPP 43
-2
26.6%
Ty Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 45Similar
Q3 8:21
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+10
25.8%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 10 yds to the Nwest 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
27.5%
Max Bortenschlager run for 4 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+11
27.9%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D.J. Moore for 11 yds to the Nwest 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
27.9%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to Taivon Jacobs, broken up by Godwin IgwebuikeSimilar
Q3 4:33
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+20
42.1%
Taivon Jacobs 20 Yd pass from Max Bortenschlager (Henry Darmstadter Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 20INT
8 plays · 42 yds · 0:2769% → 73%
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
30.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 8 yds to the Nwest 44Similar
Q3 4:25
2ND & 2
OWN 44
0
29.6%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn NagelSimilar
Q3 3:58
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+17
28.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 17 yds to the Mary 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
27.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 4 yds to the Mary 35Similar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+13
26.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 13 yds to the Mary 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
26.7%
Clayton Thorson pass intercepted, touchback. JC Jackson return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0033% → 30%
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-4
33.0%
Ty Johnson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Mary 16Similar
Q3 2:32
2ND & 14
OWN 16
0
32.5%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to Derrick HaywardSimilar
Q3 2:32
3RD & 14
OWN 16
0
31.1%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to Taivon JacobsSimilar
Q3 2:32
4TH & 14
OWN 16
0
30.3%
Wade Lees punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Marcus McShepard at the Nwest 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 22FG
9 plays · 38 yds · 3:4174% → 78%
Q3 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
26.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Jeremy Larkin for 6 yds to the Mary 47Similar
Q3 1:43
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+11
25.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 11 yds to the Mary 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
25.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 6 yds to the Mary 30Similar
Q3 1:43
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+14
24.9%
Jeremy Larkin run for 14 yds to the Mary 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-1
24.3%
Clayton Thorson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 17Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 17
+3
24.8%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Mary 14Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 14
-10
25.1%
Thorson, C. rush for 7 yards to the UMD7, out-of-bounds (Ellis, T.), PENALTY NU holding 10 yards to the UMD24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 18
OPP 24
+9
25.9%
Clayton Thorson run for 9 yds to the Mary 15Similar
Q4 13:02
4TH & 9
OPP 15
+32
21.9%
Charlie Kuhbander 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 23DOWNS
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0022% → 23%
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
22.4%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to D.J. MooreSimilar
Q4 13:02
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+18
22.1%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D.J. Moore for 18 yds to the Nwest 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-8
25.7%
Max Bortenschlager sacked by Brett Walsh for a loss of 8 yards to the Mary 45Similar
Q4 13:02
2ND & 18
OWN 45
0
22.5%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to Taivon Jacobs, broken up by Paddy FisherSimilar
Q4 13:02
3RD & 18
OWN 45
+11
21.3%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D.J. Moore for 11 yds to the Nwest 44Similar
Q4 13:02
4TH & 7
OPP 44
0
22.6%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to D.J. MooreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 24DOWNS
5 plays · 35 yds · 0:0082% → 81%
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+25
17.7%
Justin Jackson run for 25 yds to the Mary 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
16.8%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Mary 28Similar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 8
OPP 28
0
16.6%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Cameron Green, broken up by Josh WoodsSimilar
Q4 11:05
3RD & 8
OPP 28
+6
17.5%
Justin Jackson run for 6 yds to the Mary 22Similar
Q4 11:05
4TH & 2
OPP 22
+1
19.4%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Mary 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 25DOWNS
9 plays · 34 yds · 3:0916% → 13%
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
16.4%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 15 yds to the Mary 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
17.6%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for a loss of 3 yards to the Mary 33Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 13
OWN 33
+2
16.0%
Max Bortenschlager run for 2 yds to the Mary 35Similar
Q4 9:20
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+15
15.4%
Max Bortenschlager run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
50
+1
19.4%
Ty Johnson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 49Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+4
19.3%
Ty Johnson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 45Similar
Q4 9:20
3RD & 5
OPP 45
0
19.8%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to Taivon JacobsSimilar
Q4 6:11
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
12.9%
Max Bortenschlager pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 26TD
9 plays · 55 yds · 4:1190% → 99%
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
10.3%
Justin Jackson run for 6 yds to the Mary 49Similar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+2
9.8%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Mary 47Similar
Q4 4:33
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+1
8.9%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Mary 46Similar
Q4 4:33
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+2
9.5%
Clayton Thorson run for 2 yds to the Mary 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
8.3%
MARYLAND Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Kingsley Opara) to the Mary 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
7.8%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Mary 27Similar
Q4 4:33
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+6
7.8%
Justin Jackson run for 6 yds to the Mary 21Similar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+21
1.3%
Justin Jackson 21 Yd Run (Charlie Kuhbander Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 27DOWNS
10 plays · 65 yds · 0:002% → 3%
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+46
2.1%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D.J. Moore for 46 yds to the Nwest 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
2.7%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Jahrvis Davenport for 8 yds to the Nwest 16Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 2
OPP 16
0
2.7%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to Taivon JacobsSimilar
Q4 1:53
3RD & 2
OPP 16
+1
2.6%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 1 yd to the Nwest 15Similar
Q4 1:53
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+1
2.5%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 1 yd to the Nwest 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
2.7%
Max Bortenschlager pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+9
2.7%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Lorenzo Harrison III for 9 yds to the Nwest 5Similar
Q4 1:53
3RD & 1
OPP 5
0
2.7%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to D.J. MooreSimilar
Q4 1:53
4TH & 1
OPP 5
0
2.6%
Max Bortenschlager run for no gain to the Nwest 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 28END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-1
1.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:35
Clayton Thorson run for 18 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)
-14.4
TD · Q3 4:33
Taivon Jacobs 20 Yd pass from Max Bortenschlager (Henry Darmstadter Kick)
+14.2
TD · Q2 0:24
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 14 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)
-8.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com