2017 · Week 6 · Oct 7, 2017 · Ohio Stadium
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Win probability · OSU
modelOSU aheadMD aheadconfidence bandkey playOSU scoreMD score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:56 · Drue Chrisman punt for 49 yds, fair catch by D.J. Moore at the Mary 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 11:32: J.T. Barrett run for 1 yd for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK) — MD win probability +0.3 pts (now 3%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 9:40: Sean Nuernberger kickoff for 65 yds , Ty Johnson return for 100 yds for a TD, (Henry Darmstadter KICK) — MD win probability +0.2 pts (now 3%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 7:14: Binjimen Victor 8 Yd pass from J.T. Barrett (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — OSU win probability +0.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:49: J.T. Barrett pass complete to Marcus Baugh for 10 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK) — OSU win probability +2.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:36: Parris Campbell run for 24 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK) — OSU win probability +0.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5MD made the numbers' call on 11 of 12
- Q1 7:08MD 4th & 14 at MD 41, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snapGo for it4.1%−0.218% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.3%average punt
- Q1 5:31OSU 4th & 1 at MD 39, up 13Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call95.9%70% to convertField goal95.7%−0.336% to makePunt95.7%−0.3average punt
- Q1 1:35OSU 4th & 4 at MD 29, up 13Close callKicked a field goal · 95.7% before the snapGo for it95.7%48% to convertField goalTheir call95.6%−0.158% to makePunt95.0%−0.8average punt
- Q2 15:00MD 4th & 5 at OSU 34, down 13Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.9%42% to convertField goal4.9%−<0.147% to makePunt4.8%−0.1average punt
- Q2 12:49MD 4th & 4 at OSU 46, down 13Close callPunted · 5.1% before the snapGo for it5.1%48% to convertField goal4.9%−0.223% to makePuntTheir call5.1%−0.1average punt
- Q2 10:47OSU 4th & 16 at OSU 15, up 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.2% before the snapGo for it94.6%−0.614% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.3%average punt
- Q2 6:25MD 4th & 3 at OSU 30, down 13Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.7%52% to convertField goal5.4%−0.256% to makePunt5.1%−0.6average punt
- Q2 3:36MD 4th & 8 at MD 16, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snapGo for it2.1%−0.332% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.5%average punt
- Q2 1:13MD 4th & 7 at MD 16, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.3%−0.335% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
- Q3 15:00MD 4th & 24 at MD 21, down 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.4%−0.36% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
- Q3 10:35OSU 4th & 10 at MD 12, up 34Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.6%−0.125% to convertField goalTheir call99.6%86% to makePunt99.2%−0.5average punt
- Q3 10:35MD 4th & 7 at MD 23, down 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.3%−0.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q4 15:00MD 4th & 9 at MD 47, down 48Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 13:56OSU 4th & 4 at OSU 34, up 48Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 13:49MD 4th & 12 at MD 15, down 48Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.122% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 9:55MD 4th & 9 at MD 46, down 55Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 4:11MD 4th & 3 at OSU 20, down 55Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%51% to convertField goal0.0%−<0.175% to makePunt-0.1%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8MD made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 11:32OSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.9%97% to makeGo for two95.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 9:40MD Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call4.4%97% to makeGo for two4.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:14OSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick95.9%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call95.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:49OSU Touchdown, up 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.6%97% to makeGo for two96.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:36OSU Touchdown, up 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.2%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:10OSU Touchdown, up 33 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:29OSU Touchdown, up 40 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:08OSU Touchdown, up 47 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:01OSU Touchdown, up 54 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 4:11MD Touchdown, down 49 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.1%97% to makeGo for two0.1%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartOSUDrive 1TD11 plays · 70 yds · 3:2897% → 97%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+8
97.4%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Parris Campbell for 8 yds to the OhSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
97.4%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Parris Campbell for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+6
97.4%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Parris Campbell for 6 yds to the Mary 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+35
97.4%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Johnnie Dixon for 35 yds to the Mary 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
97.4%
[No Huddle], [Shotgun], Barrett, J.T. pass incomplete to Victor, B., PENALTY UMD pass interference (Jackson, J.) 5 yards to the UMD2, 1ST DOWN OSU, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 2FUMBLE TD4 plays · -12 yds · 1:313% → 3%
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-4
97.0%
Max Bortenschlager sacked by Dante Booker for a loss of 4 yards to the Mary 28Similar
Q1 9:54
3RD & 11
OWN 31
+20
97.0%
Max Bortenschlager sacked by Nick Bosa for a loss of 7 yards Max Bortenschlager fumbled, recovered by OhSt Jerome Baker , return for 0 yards , return for 20 yds, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 4TD6 plays · 70 yds · 2:1997% → 97%
MDDrive 5PUNT7 plays · 18 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 7:08
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+15
96.8%
[Shotgun], Bortenschlager sideline pass incomplete to Jacobs, T. (Ward, Denzel), PENALTY OSU personal foul (Ward, Denzel) 15 yards to the UMD45, 1ST DOWN UMD, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:08
4TH & 14
OWN 41
+7
96.8%
Wade Lees punt for 37 yds , K.J. Hill returns for 7 yds to the OhSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 6MISSED FG12 plays · 42 yds · 3:5697% → 97%
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
96.9%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Austin Mack for 3 yds to the OhSt 32Similar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+20
96.9%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Austin Mack for 20 yds to the Mary 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 5
OPP 43
-10
97.0%
[No Huddle], [Shotgun], Barrett, J.T. deep pass incomplete to Victor, B., PENALTY OSU holding (Lewis, Tyquan) 10 yards to the OSU47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:31
3RD & 15
OWN 47
+14
96.9%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Terry McLaurin for 14 yds to the Mary 39Similar
Q1 5:31
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+5
97.0%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Parris Campbell for 5 yds to the Mary 29Similar
Q1 1:35
4TH & 4
OPP 29
+47
96.5%
Sean Nuernberger 47 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by - Burkett Chandler Burkett return for no gain to the OhSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 7DOWNS7 plays · 15 yds · 1:354% → 4%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 8FUMBLE2 plays · 20 yds · 0:0096% → 97%
MDDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:004% → 4%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 10PUNT7 plays · 9 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q2 10:47
3RD & 12
OWN 4
+17
95.8%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Parris Campbell for 17 yds to the OhSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 11DOWNS5 plays · 1 yds · 2:005% → 5%
Q2 6:25
4TH & 3
OPP 30
-6
95.4%
Max Bortenschlager sacked by Jerome Baker for a loss of 6 yards to the OhSt 36 Max Bortenschlager fumbled, recovered by Mary Max Bortenschlager , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 12TD6 plays · 64 yds · 1:2996% → 98%
Q2 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+14
95.9%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Binjimen Victor for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down MARYLAND Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
98.2%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Marcus Baugh for 10 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 13PUNT6 plays · 2 yds · 1:082% → 2%
OSUDrive 14TD4 plays · 48 yds · 0:5298% → 99%
MDDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:170% → 0%
OSUDrive 16TD10 plays · 50 yds · 0:5099% → 100%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
50
+18
99.4%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Binjimen Victor for 18 yds to the Mary 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 10
OPP 32
-5
99.4%
Deadball foul, PENALTY OSU false start (Lewis, Tyquan) 5 yards to the UMD37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 15
OPP 37
+15
99.4%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Binjimen Victor for 15 yds to the Mary 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+11
99.5%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Austin Mack for 11 yds to the Mary 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+6
99.6%
Barrett, J.T. pass incomplete to Mack, Austin, PENALTY UMD holding (Jackson, J.) 6 yards to the UMD5, 1ST DOWN OSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.6%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Austin Mack for 5 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 17END OF HALF2 plays · 8 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 18PUNT5 plays · -14 yds · 0:001% → 0%
OSUDrive 19MISSED FG8 plays · 45 yds · 2:21100% → 100%
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-10
99.6%
[No Huddle], [Shotgun], Dobbins, J.K. rush over right end for no gain to the UMD22 (Davis, I.;Brooks, J.), PENALTY OSU holding 10 yards to the UMD32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:56
1ST & 20
OPP 32
+5
99.6%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to K.J. Hill for 5 yds to the Mary 27Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 15
OPP 27
+15
99.6%
[No Huddle], [Shotgun], Barrett, J.T. middle pass incomplete to Mack, Austin (Ellis, T.), PENALTY UMD pass interference (Ellis, T.) 15 yards to the UMD12, 1ST DOWN OSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
99.6%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Terry McLaurin, broken up by Jermaine Carter Jr.Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
99.6%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Parris Campbell for no gain to the Mary 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 20PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 21TD11 plays · 65 yds · 4:04100% → 100%
MDDrive 22FUMBLE5 plays · 18 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 5:24
3RD & 7
50
+3
99.8%
Max Bortenschlager run for a loss of 9 yards to the Mary 27 Max Bortenschlager fumbled, forced by Chase Young, recovered by OhSt Jashon Cornell , return for 3 yds to the Mary 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 23TD4 plays · 30 yds · 1:36100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 24PUNT8 plays · 22 yds · 2:080% → 0%
Q3 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D.J. Moore for 2 yds to the Mary 27Similar
Q3 2:08
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+19
99.9%
Max Bortenschlager run for 4 yds to the Mary 31 for a 1ST down OHIO ST Penalty, personal foul (Damon Arnette) to the Mary 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 47
0
99.9%
Caleb Henderson pass incomplete to D.J. Moore, broken up by Amir RiepSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 25PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:49100% → 100%
Q4 13:56
4TH & 4
OWN 34
0
99.9%
Drue Chrisman punt for 49 yds, fair catch by D.J. Moore at the Mary 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 26PUNT4 plays · -2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
OSUDrive 27TD5 plays · 57 yds · 1:54100% → 100%
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
99.9%
[Shotgun], Haskins, Dwayne pass incomplete to McLaurin, Terry, PENALTY UMD roughing passer (Oluwatimi, S.) 15 yards to the UMD42, 1ST DOWN OSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+23
99.9%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to C.J. Saunders for 23 yds to the Mary 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.9%
Antonio Williams run for 8 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 28PUNT6 plays · 16 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
100.0%
Jake Funk run for no gain to the Mary 30 for a 1ST down OHIO ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Jonathon Cooper) to the Mary 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:55
4TH & 9
OWN 46
0
100.0%
Wade Lees punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Demario McCall at the OhSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 29FUMBLE3 plays · 13 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
MDDrive 30TD4 plays · 27 yds · 1:530% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 31END OF GAME8 plays · 30 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:05
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+8
100.0%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to C.J. Saunders for 8 yds to the Mary 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:49
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Marcus Baugh for 10 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)
+2.3
TD · Q2 2:36
Parris Campbell run for 24 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)
+0.9
TD · Q1 11:32
J.T. Barrett run for 1 yd for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)
-0.3