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MSU

Michigan State 14 at Michigan 10

MICH
2017 · Week 6 · Oct 7, 2017 · Michigan Stadium
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Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMICH scoreMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:25 · Jake Hartbarger punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mich 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 94Pregame prior+19.6Home team on offense−12.7Garbage-time factor−2.7Score differential−5.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 8:09: Khalid Hill run for 1 yd for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK) — MICH win probability +19.9 pts (now 67%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q4 14:15: Brian Lewerke run for 8 yds to the Mich 33 — MSU win probability +9.0 pts (now 59%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 11:32: MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Matt Morrissey) to the MchSt 42 — MSU win probability +8.6 pts (now 63%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:30: Gerald Holmes run for 4 yds to the MchSt 31 — MSU win probability +10.1 pts (now 78%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:30: John O'Korn pass complete to Karan Higdon for 15 yds to the Mich 35 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Chris Frey) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down — MICH win probability +9.9 pts (now 16%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MICH made the numbers' call on 6 of 9MSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 12
  1. Q1 11:20MICH 4th & 1 at MSU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    79.3%−0.2
    60% to make
    Punt
    78.9%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:04MICH 4th & 7 at MSU 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.5%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.5%
    87% to make
    Punt
    77.8%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:01MSU 4th & 10 at MSU 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.7%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:17MICH 4th & 3 at MICH 21, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.6%−0.2
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:00MSU 4th & 10 at MICH 47, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:52MICH 4th & 7 at MICH 35, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.4%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:59MICH 4th & 23 at MICH 46, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.3%−1.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:33MSU 4th & 16 at MICH 39, up 11
    Close callPunted · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.7%−0.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    45.3%
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    45.0%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:01MICH 4th & 11 at MICH 10, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.8%−1.5
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.3%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:25MSU 4th & 12 at MSU 41, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.8%−1.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:10MSU 4th & 5 at MSU 12, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%−0.9
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:38MICH 4th & 2 at MICH 45, down 11
    Close callPunted · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.7%−1.0
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:50MSU 4th & 10 at MSU 2, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.6%−4.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.1%
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:29MSU 4th & 2 at MSU 38, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.3%−1.7
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:40MSU 4th & 7 at MSU 46, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.6%−0.9
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:13MSU 4th & 2 at MICH 33, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    55.0%−4.4
    49% to make
    Punt
    53.1%−6.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:41MSU 4th & 1 at MICH 49, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 5.6 ptsPunted · 63.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.1%−5.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:49MICH 4th & 5 at MICH 37, down 4
    Close callPunted · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.8%−0.8
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:51MSU 4th & 2 at MSU 31, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.6%−0.6
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.1%
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:58MICH 4th & 7 at MICH 38, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%−2.1
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:34MSU 4th & 7 at MICH 47, up 4
    Close callPunted · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 1 of 1MSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 2:59MSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:07MSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:09MICH Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MICHDrive 1FG
18 plays · 64 yds · 6:5384% → 83%
Q1 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.4%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Khalid HillSimilar
Q1 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
84.4%
Karan Higdon run for 6 yds to the Mich 31Similar
Q1 14:20
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+19
84.3%
John O'Korn pass complete to Grant Perry for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
50
+5
84.1%
Chris Evans run for 5 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+8
84.0%
Chris Evans run for 8 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
84.0%
Ty Isaac run for 2 yds to the MchSt 35Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+5
83.9%
John O'Korn run for 5 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q1 11:30
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+2
83.7%
Chris Evans run for 2 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
Q1 11:20
4TH & 1
OPP 28
+2
83.5%
Chris Evans run for 2 yds to the MchSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
83.6%
John O'Korn pass complete to Ian Bunting for 6 yds to the MchSt 20Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+3
83.4%
Karan Higdon run for 3 yds to the MchSt 17Similar
Q1 9:27
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+3
83.2%
Khalid Hill run for 3 yds to the MchSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
83.1%
Chris Evans run for 3 yds to the MchSt 11Similar
Q1 8:12
2ND & 7
OPP 11
0
83.0%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Sean McKeonSimilar
Q1 8:08
3RD & 7
OPP 11
0
82.8%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Eddie McDoomSimilar
Q1 8:04
4TH & 7
OPP 11
+30
82.9%
Quinn Nordin 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5917% → 17%
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.8%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
82.8%
Gerald Holmes run for no gain to the MchSt 25Similar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
82.9%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr., broken up by Josh MetellusSimilar
Q1 7:01
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
83.0%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 48 yds, downed at the Mich 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 3FUMBLE
3 plays · 19 yds · 1:0782% → 82%
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
82.4%
Donovan Peoples-Jones run for 6 yds to the Mich 33Similar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+5
82.4%
Chris Evans run for 5 yds to the Mich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
82.3%
Ty Isaac run for 8 yds to the Mich 46 Ty Isaac fumbled, forced by Joe Bachie, recovered by MchSt Chris FreySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4TD
8 plays · 46 yds · 2:4118% → 22%
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
81.6%
Gerald Holmes run for 3 yds to the Mich 43Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+15
81.5%
Gerald Holmes run for 15 yds to the Mich 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
81.0%
Brian Lewerke run for 9 yds to the Mich 19Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 1
OPP 19
-3
80.8%
Gerald Holmes run for a loss of 3 yards to the Mich 22Similar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+11
80.9%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Devin Bush) to the Mich 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
80.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Sokol for 2 yds to the Mich 9Similar
Q1 3:26
2ND & 8
OPP 9
-5
80.4%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (Brian Allen) to the Mich 14Similar
Q1 2:59
2ND & 13
OPP 14
+14
78.0%
Brian Lewerke run for 14 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2379% → 77%
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
78.8%
Karan Higdon run for 3 yds to the Mich 17Similar
Q1 2:07
2ND & 7
OWN 17
0
78.4%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Zach Gentry, broken up by David DowellSimilar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 7
OWN 17
+4
78.0%
John O'Korn pass complete to Eddie McDoom for 4 yds to the Mich 21Similar
Q1 1:17
4TH & 3
OWN 21
0
77.4%
Brad Robbins punt for 46 yds, downed at the MchSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:0023% → 23%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
77.5%
Gerald Holmes run for 3 yds to the MchSt 36Similar
Q1 0:39
2ND & 7
OWN 36
0
77.1%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
Q1 0:35
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+7
77.5%
Lewerke, Brian pass incomplete to Stewart Jr., Darrell (Metellus, Josh), PENALTY MICHIGAN pass interference (Metellus, Josh) 7 yards to the MICHIGANST43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGANST.Similar
Q1 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
76.7%
Darrell Stewart Jr. run for 10 yds to the Mich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
76.2%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Cody White, broken up by Lavert HillSimilar
Q2 14:35
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
76.0%
Gerald Holmes run for no gain to the Mich 47Similar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
76.2%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Cole Chewins) declinedSimilar
Q2 14:00
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
76.9%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 32 yds, downed at the Mich 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:0377% → 75%
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
76.6%
John O'Korn pass complete to Sean McKeon for 5 yds to the Mich 20Similar
Q2 13:20
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+12
76.3%
John O'Korn pass complete to Grant Perry for 12 yds to the Mich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
76.5%
John O'Korn pass complete to Maurice Ways for 3 yds to the Mich 35Similar
Q2 12:06
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
76.0%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Donovan Peoples-JonesSimilar
Q2 12:01
3RD & 7
OWN 35
0
75.5%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Sean McKeonSimilar
Q2 11:52
4TH & 7
OWN 35
0
74.9%
Brad Robbins punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MchSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8TD
9 plays · 83 yds · 3:3325% → 36%
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
75.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 9 yds to the MchSt 26Similar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 1
OWN 26
+2
74.2%
Madre London run for 2 yds to the MchSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
74.3%
Darrell Stewart Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 27Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+8
74.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Hunter Rison for 8 yds to the MchSt 35Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+9
73.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Sokol for 9 yds to the MchSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+30
72.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 30 yds to the Mich 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
70.7%
Madre London run for 5 yds to the Mich 21Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+5
70.3%
Brian Lewerke run for 5 yds to the Mich 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
63.7%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Madre London for 16 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 9PUNT
12 plays · 12 yds · 3:5164% → 57%
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
63.7%
John O'Korn pass complete to Grant Perry for 4 yds to the Mich 38Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+2
63.7%
Chris Evans run for 2 yds to the Mich 40Similar
Q2 6:45
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+5
62.7%
John O'Korn run for 5 yds to the Mich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-10
63.0%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Karan Higdon) to the Mich 35Similar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 20
OWN 35
0
61.3%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Chris EvansSimilar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 20
OWN 35
+14
61.0%
John O'Korn pass complete to Chris Evans for 14 yds to the Mich 49Similar
Q2 5:55
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+10
62.2%
O'Korn, John pass incomplete to Ways, Maurice, PENALTY MICHIGANST holding (Smith, Tyson) 10 yards to the MICHIGANST41, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGAN.Similar
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
62.8%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Donovan Peoples-JonesSimilar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+1
62.3%
Chris Evans run for 1 yd to the MchSt 40Similar
Q2 4:50
3RD & 9
OPP 40
-14
61.1%
John O'Korn sacked by Gerald Owens for a loss of 14 yards to the Mich 46Similar
Q2 3:59
4TH & 23
OWN 46
0
57.3%
Brad Robbins punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Laress Nelson at the MchSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 44 yds · 1:1741% → 43%
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+50
58.9%
Madre London run for 50 yds to the Mich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
56.8%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr., broken up by Lavert HillSimilar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 10
OPP 33
-1
56.6%
Madre London run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 34Similar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 11
OPP 34
0
56.5%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Trishton JacksonSimilar
Q2 2:43
4TH & 11
OPP 34
-5
57.3%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Mich 39Similar
Q2 2:33
4TH & 16
OPP 39
0
57.4%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 28 yds, downed at the Mich 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:2556% → 56%
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-7
55.6%
John O'Korn sacked by Kenny Willekes for a loss of 7 yards to the Mich 4Similar
Q2 2:24
2ND & 17
OWN 4
+6
55.7%
Karan Higdon run for 6 yds to the Mich 10Similar
Q2 2:13
3RD & 11
OWN 10
0
56.9%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Donovan Peoples-Jones, broken up by Josiah ScottSimilar
Q2 2:01
4TH & 11
OWN 10
+10
56.4%
Brad Robbins punt for 57 yds , Laress Nelson returns for 10 yds to the MchSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · -2 yds · 0:3245% → 44%
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
55.5%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr., broken up by Lavert HillSimilar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+3
56.1%
Madre London run for 3 yds to the MchSt 46Similar
Q2 1:36
3RD & 7
OWN 46
0
54.6%
Brian Lewerke run for no gain to the MchSt 46Similar
Q2 1:33
4TH & 7
OWN 46
-5
55.6%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (Grayson Miller) to the MchSt 41Similar
Q2 1:25
4TH & 12
OWN 41
0
56.0%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mich 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 13FUMBLE
3 plays · 34 yds · 0:4957% → 54%
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
56.6%
John O'Korn pass complete to Grant Perry for 9 yds to the Mich 46Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 1
OWN 46
-11
57.0%
John O'Korn sacked by Joe Bachie for a loss of 11 yards to the Mich 35Similar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 12
OWN 35
+36
53.8%
John O'Korn pass complete to Sean McKeon for 36 yds Sean McKeon fumbled, forced by Justin Layne, recovered by MchSt David DowellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
52.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3546% → 47%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
54.0%
Madre London run for 1 yd to the MchSt 8Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 9
OWN 8
+4
53.2%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 4 yds to the MchSt 12Similar
Q3 13:21
3RD & 5
OWN 12
0
52.6%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:10
4TH & 5
OWN 12
-2
52.9%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 49 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16FUMBLE
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2252% → 49%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
51.8%
Ty Isaac run for 2 yds to the Mich 39Similar
Q3 12:26
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
51.3%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Grant PerrySimilar
Q3 12:15
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+6
49.8%
John O'Korn run for 6 yds to the Mich 45Similar
Q3 11:38
4TH & 2
OWN 45
-18
48.9%
Brad Robbins punt for 35 yds , Laress Nelson fumbled, recovered by MchSt Laress Nelson at MChSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:4851% → 53%
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-1
49.2%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (Cole Chewins) to the MchSt 1Similar
Q3 11:33
1ST & 11
OWN 1
0
49.1%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 11
OWN 1
0
49.1%
Madre London run for no gain to the MchSt 1Similar
Q3 10:35
3RD & 11
OWN 1
+2
47.9%
Brian Lewerke run for 2 yds to the MchSt 3Similar
Q3 9:58
4TH & 9
OWN 3
-1
47.6%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-1 Yards) to the MchSt 2Similar
Q3 9:50
4TH & 10
OWN 2
+9
47.4%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 40 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for 9 yds to the MchSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18TD
4 plays · 33 yds · 1:3649% → 67%
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+18
49.4%
John O'Korn pass complete to Khalid Hill for 18 yds to the MchSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-3
48.5%
Ty Isaac run for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 18Similar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 13
OPP 18
+17
47.4%
John O'Korn pass complete to Grant Perry for 17 yds to the MchSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
67.3%
Khalid Hill run for 1 yd for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:3740% → 43%
Q3 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
59.6%
Lewerke, Brian pass incomplete to Sokol, Matt, PENALTY MICHIGANST ineligible downfield on pass (Sokol, Matt) 5 yards to the MICHIGANST25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:46
1ST & 15
OWN 25
+3
60.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Sokol for 3 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
Q3 7:18
2ND & 12
OWN 28
0
58.0%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Matt SokolSimilar
Q3 7:10
3RD & 12
OWN 28
+10
59.0%
Brian Lewerke run for 10 yds to the MchSt 38Similar
Q3 6:29
4TH & 2
OWN 38
+42
57.5%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 42 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 20INT
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:2658% → 55%
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
58.4%
Karan Higdon run for 5 yds to the Mich 24Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+6
58.6%
Karan Higdon run for 6 yds to the Mich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
58.0%
Karan Higdon run for 6 yds to the Mich 36Similar
Q3 5:02
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+6
60.1%
Karan Higdon run for 6 yds to the Mich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-10
59.9%
O'Korn, John pass incomplete to Poggi, Henry, PENALTY MICHIGAN holding 10 yards to the MICHIGAN32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 20
OWN 32
+8
55.5%
John O'Korn run for 8 yds to the Mich 40Similar
Q3 3:52
2ND & 12
OWN 40
+17
54.7%
John O'Korn pass intercepted David Dowell return for 17 yds to the Mich 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -12 yds · 2:1252% → 51%
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-15
48.2%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Mike Panasiuk) to the MchSt 43Similar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
47.8%
Madre London run for no gain to the MchSt 43Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
48.3%
Madre London run for no gain to the MchSt 43Similar
Q3 2:25
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+3
48.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Madre London for 3 yds to the MchSt 46Similar
Q3 1:40
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
49.2%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mich 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 22INT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:1251% → 50%
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
51.1%
Chris Evans run for 1 yd to the Mich 16Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 9
OWN 16
-1
50.5%
John O'Korn sacked by Naquan Jones for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 15Similar
Q3 0:08
3RD & 10
OWN 15
+12
47.9%
John O'Korn pass complete to Sean McKeon for 12 yds to the Mich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
50.4%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Kekoa CrawfordSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+7
49.8%
Karan Higdon run for 7 yds to the Mich 34Similar
Q4 14:18
3RD & 3
OWN 34
0
50.4%
John O'Korn pass intercepted Joe Bachie return for no gain to the Mich 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 23FUMBLE
4 plays · 5 yds · 2:0259% → 58%
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
41.4%
Brian Lewerke run for 8 yds to the Mich 33Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 2
OPP 33
0
38.6%
Gerald Holmes run for no gain to the Mich 33Similar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 2
OPP 33
0
39.9%
Brian Lewerke run for no gain to the Mich 33Similar
Q4 12:13
4TH & 2
OPP 33
-3
41.9%
Brian Lewerke run for a loss of 3 yards to the Mich 36 Brian Lewerke fumbled, recovered by MichSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 24INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:3648% → 46%
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
48.4%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Khalid HillSimilar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+1
47.7%
Chris Evans run for 1 yd to the Mich 37Similar
Q4 11:32
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+18
46.0%
John O'Korn pass intercepted David Dowell return for 18 yds to the Mich 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:5163% → 63%
Q4 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-15
37.4%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Matt Morrissey) to the MchSt 42Similar
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
38.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 2
50
-1
34.4%
Madre London run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 49Similar
Q4 10:15
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+2
35.2%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Connor Heyward for 2 yds to the Mich 49Similar
Q4 9:41
4TH & 1
OPP 49
0
36.8%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:4644% → 41%
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
44.1%
Karan Higdon run for 12 yds to the Mich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
44.5%
Karan Higdon run for 1 yd to the Mich 33Similar
Q4 8:24
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+4
43.5%
Karan Higdon run for 4 yds to the Mich 37Similar
Q4 7:59
3RD & 5
OWN 37
0
42.6%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Grant PerrySimilar
Q4 7:49
4TH & 5
OWN 37
0
40.8%
Brad Robbins punt for 40 yds, downed at the MchSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5365% → 69%
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
34.7%
Darrell Stewart Jr. run for 4 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 6
OWN 27
0
30.3%
Brian Lewerke run for no gain to the MchSt 27Similar
Q4 6:30
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+4
31.8%
Brian Lewerke run for 4 yds to the MchSt 31Similar
Q4 5:51
4TH & 2
OWN 31
0
31.0%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mich 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:3739% → 32%
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
39.3%
Chris Evans run for no gain to the Mich 35Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+6
35.5%
John O'Korn pass complete to Sean McKeon for 6 yds to the Mich 41Similar
Q4 4:20
3RD & 4
OWN 41
-3
37.4%
Chris Evans run for a loss of 3 yards to the Mich 38Similar
Q4 3:58
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
32.4%
Brad Robbins punt for 35 yds, downed at the MchSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 29PUNT
15 plays · 26 yds · 2:5678% → 94%
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
22.3%
Gerald Holmes run for 4 yds to the MchSt 31Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+5
19.8%
Holmes, Gerald rush for loss of 2 yards to the MICHIGANST29, PENALTY MICHIGAN offside (Gary, Rashan) 5 yards to the MICHIGANST36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+3
17.4%
Brian Lewerke run for 3 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
15.5%
Gerald Holmes run for 6 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+1
13.8%
Gerald Holmes run for 1 yd to the MchSt 46Similar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+4
10.6%
Brian Lewerke run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
50
-2
9.3%
Gerald Holmes run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 48Similar
Q4 1:26
2ND & 12
OWN 48
+4
8.3%
Brian Lewerke run for 4 yds to the MICHIGAN 48 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 1:16
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+1
7.9%
Brian Lewerke run for 1 yd to the Mich 47Similar
Q4 0:34
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
5.7%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 30END OF GAME
7 plays · 43 yds · 0:2916% → 18%
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+30
15.6%
John O'Korn pass complete to Karan Higdon for 15 yds to the Mich 35 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Chris Frey) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
50
0
17.2%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Eddie McDoomSimilar
Q4 0:15
2ND & 10
50
0
16.2%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Donovan Peoples-JonesSimilar
Q4 0:14
3RD & 10
50
-5
14.7%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Mich 45Similar
Q4 0:05
3RD & 15
OWN 45
+18
12.6%
John O'Korn pass complete to Karan Higdon for 18 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
18.1%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Eddie McDoomSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:09
Khalid Hill run for 1 yd for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK)
+19.9
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-18.1
KEY PLAY · Q4 3:30
Gerald Holmes run for 4 yds to the MchSt 31
-10.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com