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ILL

Illinois 16 at Iowa 45

IOWA
2017 · Week 6 · Oct 7, 2017 · Kinnick Stadium
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Win probability · IOWA
modelIOWA aheadILL aheadconfidence bandkey playIOWA scoreILL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:36 · Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Dominic Thieman
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 176Pregame prior+2.3Home team on offense+35.9Score differential+31.6Garbage-time factor+11.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.8Blowout margin+16.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:40: Ra'Von Bonner run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK) — ILL win probability +8.7 pts (now 30%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:08: Nathan Stanley pass complete to Akrum Wadley for 2 yds for a TD, (Miguel Recinos KICK) — IOWA win probability +7.8 pts (now 81%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:40: Jeff George Jr. pass intercepted for a TD Brandon Snyder return for 89 yds for a TD, (Miguel Recinos KICK) — IOWA win probability +9.6 pts (now 83%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:22: Nathan Stanley pass complete to Matt VandeBerg for 39 yds for a TD, (Miguel Recinos KICK) — IOWA win probability +5.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:49: Akrum Wadley run for 18 yds for a TD, (Miguel Recinos KICK) — IOWA win probability +2.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IOWA made the numbers' call on 3 of 6ILL made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 9:32ILL 4th & 10 at IOWA 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.1%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.2%
    87% to make
    Punt
    15.7%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:16IOWA 4th & 1 at ILL 14, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    82.9%−0.4
    84% to make
    Punt
    81.7%−1.6
    average punt
  3. Q2 9:06IOWA 4th & 10 at ILL 20, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.7%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.1%
    75% to make
    Punt
    77.7%−2.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 2:49ILL 4th & 3 at IOWA 6, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.7%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.9%−0.7
    91% to make
    Punt
    22.5%−5.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:03IOWA 4th & 5 at ILL 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    70.3%−0.5
    32% to make
    Punt
    69.9%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q3 15:00IOWA 4th & 1 at IOWA 34, up 4
    Close callPunted · 77.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.5%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:27ILL 4th & 17 at ILL 26, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.8%−1.8
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:33IOWA 4th & 4 at IOWA 40, up 4
    Close callPunted · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.3%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:43ILL 4th & 6 at IOWA 22, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.9%
    72% to make
    Punt
    8.5%−3.4
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:50ILL 4th & 9 at IOWA 34, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.6%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    5.6%
    47% to make
    Punt
    5.0%−0.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:49ILL 4th & 5 at ILL 30, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:52IOWA 4th & 2 at IOWA 45, up 22
    Close callPunted · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:36ILL 4th & 3 at IOWA 45, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    25% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IOWA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6ILL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 4:16IOWA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:40ILL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:08IOWA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:40IOWA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:22IOWA Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:49IOWA Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:36IOWA Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ILLDrive 1FUMBLE
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
84.0%
Jeff George Jr. sacked by Anthony Nelson for a loss of 10 yards to the Illin 27 Jeff George Jr. fumbled, recovered by Iowa Ben Niemann , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 2FUMBLE
3 plays · 20 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
83.9%
Toren Young run for 7 yds to the Illin 20Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+2
83.9%
Toren Young run for 2 yds to the Illin 18Similar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+23
83.9%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 11 yds to the Illin 30 Ivory Kelly-Martin fumbled, forced by Stanley Green, recovered by Illin Patrick Nelson , return for 23 yds to the Illin 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 3FG
11 plays · 59 yds · 3:5617% → 18%
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
83.5%
Ra'Von Bonner run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 28Similar
Q1 13:28
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+6
83.5%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Malik Turner for 6 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q1 13:28
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+6
83.5%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Mike Dudek for 6 yds to the Illin 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
83.5%
Jeff George Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:28
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+9
83.5%
Mike Epstein run for 9 yds to the Illin 49Similar
Q1 13:28
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+40
83.4%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Louis Dorsey for 40 yds to the Iowa 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
83.4%
Reggie Corbin run for no gain to the Iowa 11Similar
Q1 13:28
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
83.4%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Louis Dorsey, broken up by Brandon SnyderSimilar
Q1 9:40
3RD & 10
OPP 11
0
82.0%
Jeff George Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:32
4TH & 10
OPP 11
+29
82.0%
Chase McLaughlin 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 4TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:1682% → 82%
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
81.9%
Akrum Wadley run for no gain to the Iowa 25Similar
Q1 9:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+24
81.9%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to T.J. Hockenson for 24 yds to the Iowa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
82.3%
Akrum Wadley run for 4 yds to the Illin 47Similar
Q1 9:32
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+6
82.3%
Nathan Stanley run for 6 yds to the Illin 41 for a 1ST down ILLINOIS Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
82.3%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Matt VandeBerg for 9 yds to the Illin 32Similar
Q1 9:32
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+6
82.5%
Akrum Wadley run for 6 yds to the Illin 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
82.5%
Nathan Stanley pass incomplete IOWA Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 9:32
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+14
82.4%
Akrum Wadley run for 14 yds to the Illin 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
82.5%
Akrum Wadley run for 4 yds to the Illin 8Similar
Q1 9:32
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+3
82.5%
Akrum Wadley run for 3 yds to the Illin 5Similar
Q1 4:16
3RD & 3
OPP 5
+5
82.1%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 5 yds for a TD, (Miguel Recinos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 5DOWNS
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
82.3%
Akrum Wadley run for 3 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q1 4:16
2ND & 7
OPP 34
0
82.3%
Nathan Stanley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:16
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+11
82.1%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 11 yds to the Illin 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
82.3%
Akrum Wadley run for 2 yds to the Illin 21Similar
Q1 4:16
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+3
82.3%
Noah Fant run for 3 yds to the Illin 18Similar
Q1 4:16
3RD & 5
OPP 18
+4
82.1%
Akrum Wadley run for 4 yds to the Illin 14Similar
Q1 4:16
4TH & 1
OPP 14
0
81.9%
Akrum Wadley run for no gain to the Illin 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 6INT
11 plays · 67 yds · 1:0620% → 21%
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+7
80.5%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Carmoni Green for 7 yds to the Illin 21Similar
Q1 1:06
2ND & 3
OWN 21
+20
80.3%
Reggie Corbin run for 30 yds to the IOWA 49 for a 1ST down ILLINOIS Penalty, Offensive holding (Carmoni Green) to the Illin 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
79.3%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Louis Dorsey ILLINOIS Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+9
79.5%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
50
+7
79.0%
Jeff George Jr. run for 7 yds to the Iowa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
79.0%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Chayce Crouch for 7 yds to the Iowa 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+4
78.8%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 4 yds to the Iowa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+18
78.6%
Reggie Corbin run for 18 yds to the Iowa 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-5
78.4%
[SG], PENALTY ILL ineligible downfield on pass (Lowe,Vederian) 5 yards to the IOWA19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 19
0
78.6%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Ricky SmallingSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 19
0
78.8%
Jeff George Jr. pass intercepted, touchback. Amani Hooker return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 7FG
8 plays · 60 yds · 2:3479% → 82%
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+41
79.4%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Noah Fant for 41 yds to the Illin 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
80.7%
Nathan Stanley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+8
80.6%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 8 yds to the Illin 31Similar
Q2 11:40
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+11
80.4%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 11 yds to the Illin 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
80.8%
Akrum Wadley run for no gain to the Illin 20Similar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
80.8%
Nathan Stanley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:40
3RD & 10
OPP 20
0
80.4%
Nathan Stanley pass incomplete to Nick EasleySimilar
Q2 9:06
4TH & 10
OPP 20
+37
82.0%
Miguel Recinos 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 8TD
8 plays · 85 yds · 2:2618% → 30%
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
81.7%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Malik Turner, broken up by Brandon SnyderSimilar
Q2 9:06
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+58
81.8%
Mike Epstein run for 58 yds to the Iowa 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
79.1%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Reggie Corbin for no gain to the Iowa 27Similar
Q2 9:06
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+19
79.4%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 19 yds to the Iowa 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
79.1%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 3 yds to the Iowa 5Similar
Q2 9:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
79.1%
IOWA Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Joshua Jackson) to the Iowa 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
70.5%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 9INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0076% → 75%
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
75.9%
Nathan Stanley pass incomplete to Nick EasleySimilar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
75.7%
Nathan Stanley pass incomplete to Nick EasleySimilar
Q2 6:40
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+20
74.9%
Nathan Stanley pass intercepted Bennett Williams return for 20 yds to the Iowa 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 10FG
10 plays · 29 yds · 3:3330% → 32%
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
70.5%
Reggie Corbin run for 2 yds to the Iowa 33Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+8
70.5%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Carmoni Green for 8 yds to the Iowa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
70.3%
Mike Epstein run for no gain to the Iowa 25Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
70.6%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Mike Dudek, broken up by Ben NiemannSimilar
Q2 6:22
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+12
71.5%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Malik Turner for 12 yds to the Iowa 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
70.3%
Mike Epstein run for 1 yd to the Iowa 12Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 9
OPP 12
0
70.3%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Dominic Thieman, broken up by Ben NiemannSimilar
Q2 3:11
3RD & 9
OPP 12
+6
69.8%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Mike Dudek for 6 yds to the Iowa 6Similar
Q2 2:49
4TH & 3
OPP 6
+24
68.0%
Chase McLaughlin 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 11TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 2:4169% → 81%
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
68.8%
Akrum Wadley run for 7 yds to the Iowa 32Similar
Q2 2:49
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+9
70.5%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 9 yds to the Iowa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
70.9%
Nathan Stanley pass incomplete to Noah Fant, broken up by Patrick NelsonSimilar
Q2 2:49
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+5
69.7%
[SG], Stanley, Nate pass complete to Smith-Marsette, for 7 yards to the IOWA48 (Dunlap,Jaylen;Adams,Tony), PENALTY ILL offside defense (Crawford,James) 5 yards to the IOWA46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:49
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+8
71.2%
Akrum Wadley run for 8 yds to the Illin 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
71.7%
Nathan Stanley pass incomplete to Noah FantSimilar
Q2 2:49
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-7
71.5%
Nathan Stanley sacked by Nate Hobbs for a loss of 7 yards to the Iowa 47Similar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 17
OWN 47
+12
68.3%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Akrum Wadley for 12 yds to the Illin 41Similar
Q2 1:03
4TH & 5
OPP 41
+18
70.1%
Amani Hooker run for 18 yds to the Illin 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+11
73.0%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 11 yds to the Illin 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
73.0%
Akrum Wadley run for 3 yds to the Illin 2Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
73.0%
Nathan Stanley pass incomplete to Akrum Wadley, broken up by James CrawfordSimilar
Q2 0:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
80.8%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Akrum Wadley for 2 yds for a TD, (Miguel Recinos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
80.6%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0077% → 76%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.3%
Nathan Stanley pass incomplete to Matt VandeBergSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
77.1%
Akrum Wadley run for 5 yds to the Iowa 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
76.7%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 4 yds to the Iowa 34Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+33
76.4%
Ryan Gersonde punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Mike Dudek at the IOWA 28 IOWA Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the Illin 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:0024% → 22%
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
75.8%
Mike Epstein run for 6 yds to the Illin 39Similar
Q3 13:27
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+2
74.2%
Jeff George Jr. run for 2 yds to the Illin 41Similar
Q3 13:27
3RD & 2
OWN 41
-15
74.3%
[SG], George, Jr., J. pass complete to Corbin,Reggie for 5 yards to the ILL46, out-of-bounds (Bower, Bo), PENALTY ILL pass interference (Turner,Malik) 15 yards to the ILL26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:27
3RD & 17
OWN 26
0
77.5%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q3 13:27
4TH & 17
OWN 26
+11
78.1%
Blake Hayes punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Iowa 34 , Joshua Jackson returns for 11 yds to the Iowa 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0076% → 75%
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
76.2%
Nathan Stanley pass incomplete to Nick Easley, broken up by Bennett WilliamsSimilar
Q3 11:33
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+6
76.0%
Akrum Wadley run for 6 yds to the Iowa 40Similar
Q3 11:33
3RD & 4
OWN 40
0
76.7%
Nathan Stanley pass incomplete to Ihmir Smith-MarsetteSimilar
Q3 11:33
4TH & 4
OWN 40
+1
75.3%
Ryan Gersonde punt for 32 yds , Mike Dudek returns for 1 yd to the Illin 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 16INT TD
7 plays · 49 yds · 3:5423% → 17%
Q3 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
76.6%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 9 yds to the Illin 38Similar
Q3 10:34
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+3
74.6%
Reggie Corbin run for 3 yds to the Illin 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+27
75.2%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Malik Turner for 27 yds to the Iowa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
72.8%
Mike Epstein run for 7 yds to the Iowa 25Similar
Q3 10:34
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+2
72.5%
Mike Epstein run for 2 yds to the Iowa 23Similar
Q3 10:34
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+1
73.6%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 1 yd to the Iowa 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+89
83.2%
Jeff George Jr. pass intercepted for a TD Brandon Snyder return for 89 yds for a TD, (Miguel Recinos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 17FG
11 plays · 53 yds · 3:5714% → 15%
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
86.3%
Reggie Corbin run for 4 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
85.9%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Louis DorseySimilar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+31
86.6%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Louis Dorsey for 31 yds to the Iowa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
84.4%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 3 yds to the Iowa 37Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+3
84.3%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Trenard Davis for 3 yds to the Iowa 34Similar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+8
84.2%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Mike Dudek for 8 yds to the Iowa 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
83.2%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Carmoni GreenSimilar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+4
83.6%
Reggie Corbin run for 4 yds to the Iowa 22Similar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 6
OPP 22
0
84.2%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Ricky SmallingSimilar
Q3 2:43
4TH & 6
OPP 22
+40
85.0%
Chase McLaughlin 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 18TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:2188% → 95%
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
87.5%
Akrum Wadley run for 5 yds to the Iowa 30Similar
Q3 2:43
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
87.7%
Akrum Wadley run for 5 yds to the Iowa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
87.6%
Akrum Wadley run for 6 yds to the Iowa 41Similar
Q3 2:43
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+2
88.7%
Akrum Wadley run for 2 yds to the Iowa 43Similar
Q3 2:43
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+17
88.0%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to T.J. Hockenson for 17 yds to the Illin 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
89.4%
Akrum Wadley run for 1 yd to the Illin 39Similar
Q4 14:22
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+39
95.1%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Matt VandeBerg for 39 yds for a TD, (Miguel Recinos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 19DOWNS
9 plays · 41 yds · 2:327% → 5%
Q4 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
93.4%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Carmoni Green for 8 yds to the Illin 33Similar
Q4 14:22
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+6
93.0%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 6 yds to the Illin 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+26
92.9%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 26 yds to the Iowa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
91.9%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q4 14:22
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+1
91.9%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 1 yd to the Iowa 34Similar
Q4 14:22
3RD & 9
OPP 34
0
92.6%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Carmoni GreenSimilar
Q4 11:50
4TH & 9
OPP 34
0
94.6%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Malik Turner ILLINOIS Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 20TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 2:5696% → 99%
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
96.2%
Toren Young run for 1 yd to the Iowa 35Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+8
96.2%
Toren Young run for 8 yds to the Iowa 43Similar
Q4 11:45
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+2
96.4%
Nathan Stanley run for 2 yds to the Iowa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
96.5%
Toren Young run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 5
50
+32
96.4%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Noah Fant for 32 yds to the Illin 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
99.3%
Akrum Wadley run for 18 yds for a TD, (Miguel Recinos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.1%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Carmoni Green for 5 yds to the Illin 30Similar
Q4 8:49
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
99.0%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Carmoni Green, broken up by Matt NelsonSimilar
Q4 8:49
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
99.0%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Malik Turner, broken up by Jake GervaseSimilar
Q4 8:49
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
99.1%
Blake Hayes punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Iowa 23 , Joshua Jackson returns for no gain to the Iowa 30 IOWA Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the Iowa 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
99.3%
Akrum Wadley run for 9 yds to the Iowa 32Similar
Q4 7:52
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+5
99.3%
Toren Young run for 5 yds to the Iowa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
99.3%
Toren Young run for 3 yds to the Iowa 40Similar
Q4 7:52
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
99.3%
Nathan Stanley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:52
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+5
99.3%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Noah Fant for 5 yds to the Iowa 45Similar
Q4 7:52
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
99.3%
Ryan Gersonde punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Mike Dudek at the Illin 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 23INT
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
99.4%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Trenard Davis for 8 yds to the Illin 20Similar
Q4 5:04
2ND & 2
OWN 20
0
99.4%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Dominic Thieman, broken up by Cedric BoswellSimilar
Q4 5:04
3RD & 2
OWN 20
+19
99.4%
Jeff George Jr. pass intercepted Geno Stone return for 19 yds to the Illin 4 Geno Stone fumbled, forced by Mike Dudek, recovered by Iowa Garret Jansen ILLINOIS Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 24TD
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:39100% → 100%
Q4 4:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
99.5%
Toren Young run for 1 yd to the Illin 3Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
99.5%
Tyler Wiegers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
100.0%
Tyler Wiegers pass complete to Ivory Kelly-Martin for 3 yds for a TD, (Miguel Recinos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 25DOWNS
9 plays · 30 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
100.0%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 9 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q4 3:36
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
100.0%
Ra'Von Bonner run for no gain to the Illin 34Similar
Q4 3:36
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
99.9%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 1 yd to the Illin 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
100.0%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Dominic Thieman for 13 yds to the Illin 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
100.0%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Reggie Corbin for 3 yds to the Iowa 49Similar
Q4 3:36
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+4
100.0%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Louis Dorsey for 4 yds to the Iowa 45Similar
Q4 3:36
3RD & 3
OPP 45
0
99.9%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Dominic Thieman, broken up by Jake GervaseSimilar
Q4 3:36
4TH & 3
OPP 45
0
99.9%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Dominic ThiemanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 26END OF GAME
1 play · 11 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
100.0%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 11 yds to the Illin 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:40
Jeff George Jr. pass intercepted for a TD Brandon Snyder return for 89 yds for a TD, (Miguel Recinos KICK)
+9.6
TD · Q2 6:40
Ra'Von Bonner run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK)
-8.7
TD · Q2 0:08
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Akrum Wadley for 2 yds for a TD, (Miguel Recinos KICK)
+7.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com