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NU

Northwestern 24 at Wisconsin 33

WIS
2017 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2017 · Camp Randall Stadium
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Win probability · WIS
modelWIS aheadNU aheadconfidence bandkey playWIS scoreNU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDSAFETYEnd of GameFG+4.4WIS 95.0%Rafael Gaglianone 23 yd FG GOODAWAY 10 - HOME 24 · Q4 11:12
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:12 · Rafael Gaglianone 23 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 132Pregame prior+7.7Home team on offense+23.7Score differential+10.5Garbage-time factor+10.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+2.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:38: Cameron Green 1 Yd pass from Clayton Thorson (Charlie Kuhbander Kick) — NU win probability +8.2 pts (now 33%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:16: Jonathan Taylor run for 11 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK) — WIS win probability +17.8 pts (now 82%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:26: Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Danny Davis III for 5 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK) — WIS win probability +7.6 pts (now 89%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:46: Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman 2 Yd pass from Clayton Thorson (Charlie Kuhbander Kick) — NU win probability +5.9 pts (now 7%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:53: Garrett Dickerson 5 Yd pass from Clayton Thorson (Charlie Kuhbander Kick) — NU win probability +12.1 pts (now 15%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WIS made the numbers' call on 3 of 7NU made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 13:25NU 4th & 2 at WIS 16, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.3%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.2%−0.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    13.8%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:07WIS 4th & 8 at WIS 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.4%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:01NU 4th & 19 at NU 11, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.8%−0.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:53NU 4th & 9 at WIS 32, down 4
    Close callWent for it · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.6%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    17.7%
    51% to make
    Punt
    17.4%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:54NU 4th & 1 at WIS 47, down 4
    Close callPunted · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.5%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:16WIS 4th & 9 at WIS 11, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.3%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:20NU 4th & 1 at WIS 24, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    19.9%−1.0
    68% to make
    Punt
    17.2%−3.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:23NU 4th & 10 at NU 31, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.5%−1.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:21WIS 4th & 11 at NU 45, down 3
    Close callPunted · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.1%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    69.6%
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    69.0%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:08NU 4th & 18 at NU 29, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%−2.0
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:32NU 4th & 4 at NU 31, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%−0.5
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:21WIS 4th & 5 at midfield, up 11
    Close callPunted · 89.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.5%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:53NU 4th & 14 at NU 12, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.9%−1.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:12WIS 4th & 4 at NU 5, up 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 90.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.2%−0.4
    92% to make
    Punt
    85.4%−5.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:22NU 4th & 7 at NU 48, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:18WIS 4th & 13 at WIS 3, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.2%−1.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:09WIS 4th & 2 at NU 35, up 7
    Close callPunted · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    94.7%−0.4
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.3%−0.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WIS made the numbers' call on 4 of 4NU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 4:13WIS Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:38NU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:16WIS Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:26WIS Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:54WIS Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:46NU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.1%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:53NU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.8%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WISDrive 1FUMBLE
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
85.5%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Jazz Peavy for a loss of 1 yard Jazz Peavy fumbled, recovered by NwestSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 2FG
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2315% → 15%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
85.5%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Wisc 21Similar
Q1 14:31
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+6
85.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 6 yds to the Wisc 15Similar
Q1 14:12
3RD & 1
OPP 15
-1
85.3%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 16Similar
Q1 13:25
4TH & 2
OPP 16
+34
85.0%
Charlie Kuhbander 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 3:0485% → 84%
Q1 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
85.0%
Jonathan Taylor run for 11 yds to the Wisc 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
84.7%
Jonathan Taylor run for 7 yds to the Wisc 37Similar
Q1 12:11
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+6
84.7%
Jonathan Taylor run for 6 yds to the Wisc 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
84.6%
Bradrick Shaw run for no gain to the Wisc 43Similar
Q1 10:52
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+2
84.3%
Chris James run for 2 yds to the Wisc 45Similar
Q1 10:15
3RD & 8
OWN 45
0
84.0%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Quintez CephusSimilar
Q1 10:07
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
83.8%
Anthony Lotti punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Flynn Nagel at the Nwest 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:0216% → 17%
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+13
83.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 13 yds to the Nwest 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
83.8%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 24Similar
Q1 9:23
2ND & 6
OWN 24
-3
83.6%
John Moten IV run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 21Similar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 9
OWN 21
-10
83.4%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Isaiahh Loudermilk for a loss of 10 yards to the Nwest 11Similar
Q1 8:01
4TH & 19
OWN 11
+1
83.4%
Hunter Niswander punt for 37 yds , Nick Nelson returns for 1 yd to the Nwest 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 5TD
7 plays · 47 yds · 3:4384% → 84%
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
83.5%
Jonathan Taylor run for 5 yds to the Nwest 42Similar
Q1 7:23
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+6
83.3%
Jonathan Taylor run for 6 yds to the Nwest 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+14
83.1%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Quintez Cephus for 14 yds to the Nwest 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
83.1%
Bradrick Shaw run for 7 yds to the Nwest 15Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 3
OPP 15
+6
82.7%
Jonathan Taylor run for 6 yds to the Nwest 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
82.5%
Jonathan Taylor run for 2 yds to the Nwest 7Similar
Q1 4:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
83.8%
Jonathan Taylor 7 Yd Run (Rafael Gaglianone Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 6INT
10 plays · 43 yds · 4:1117% → 18%
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
83.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Riley Lees for 15 yds to the Nwest 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
82.5%
Jeremy Larkin run for 3 yds to the Nwest 43Similar
Q1 3:02
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+12
82.2%
Jeremy Larkin run for 12 yds to the Wisc 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
81.9%
Jeremy Larkin run for 8 yds to the Wisc 37Similar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+4
81.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Jeremy Larkin for 4 yds to the Wisc 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
81.1%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Garret Dooley for a loss of 2 yards to the Wisc 35Similar
Q1 1:09
2ND & 12
OPP 35
+1
81.0%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Wisc 34Similar
Q1 0:32
3RD & 11
OPP 34
+2
81.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 2 yds to the Wisc 32Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 9
OPP 32
+4
81.6%
Clayton Thorson pass intercepted Natrell Jamerson return for 4 yds to the Wisc 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 7INT
6 plays · 6 yds · 2:3982% → 80%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
81.7%
Jonathan Taylor run for 6 yds to the Wisc 22Similar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+3
81.6%
Jonathan Taylor run for 3 yds to the Wisc 25Similar
Q2 13:37
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+3
81.1%
Austin Ramesh run for 3 yds to the Wisc 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-6
81.3%
Alex Hornibrook sacked by Sam Miller for a loss of 6 yards to the Wisc 22Similar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 16
OWN 22
0
80.9%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Kyle PennistonSimilar
Q2 12:11
3RD & 16
OWN 22
0
80.4%
Alex Hornibrook pass intercepted JR Pace return for no gain to the Nwest 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1220% → 20%
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
80.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Justin JacksonSimilar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+9
80.2%
Clayton Thorson run for 9 yds to the Wisc 47Similar
Q2 11:23
3RD & 1
OPP 47
0
79.4%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Wisc 47Similar
Q2 10:54
4TH & 1
OPP 47
0
80.0%
Hunter Niswander punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Nick Nelson at the Wisc 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:3181% → 79%
Q2 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
80.5%
Austin Ramesh run for 4 yds to the Wisc 14Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 6
OWN 14
-3
80.4%
Quintez Cephus run for a loss of 3 yards to the Wisc 11 Quintez Cephus fumbled, recovered by WiscSimilar
Q2 9:23
3RD & 9
OWN 11
0
79.5%
Alex Hornibrook pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:16
4TH & 9
OWN 11
0
79.1%
Anthony Lotti punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Flynn Nagel at the Wisc 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 10TD
15 plays · 44 yds · 6:2922% → 33%
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
78.4%
Jeremy Larkin run for 7 yds to the Wisc 37Similar
Q2 8:44
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+4
78.0%
Jeremy Larkin run for 4 yds to the Wisc 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
77.5%
Jeremy Larkin run for no gain to the Wisc 33Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 10
OPP 33
-5
77.6%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Wisc 38Similar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 15
OPP 38
+9
78.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 9 yds to the Wisc 29Similar
Q2 6:27
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+5
77.8%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Wisc 24Similar
Q2 6:20
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+1
78.3%
Clayton Thorson run for 1 yd to the Wisc 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
76.4%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Wisc 23Similar
Q2 5:07
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+5
76.5%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Wisc 18Similar
Q2 4:51
2ND & 5
OPP 18
-10
76.2%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Wisc 28Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 15
OPP 28
+12
77.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 12 yds to the Wisc 16Similar
Q2 4:13
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+3
76.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 3 yds to the Wisc 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
75.7%
Jeremy Larkin run for 3 yds to the Wisc 10Similar
Q2 3:22
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+9
75.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to James Prather for 9 yds to the Wisc 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
67.3%
Cameron Green 1 Yd pass from Clayton Thorson (Charlie Kuhbander Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 11INT
4 plays · 22 yds · 0:3371% → 73%
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
70.7%
Jonathan Taylor run for 3 yds to the Wisc 28Similar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+19
70.6%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Quintez Cephus for 19 yds to the Wisc 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
72.5%
Alex Hornibrook pass intercepted Godwin Igwebuike return for 6 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2031% → 30%
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
68.6%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
68.9%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:34
3RD & 10
OWN 31
0
69.8%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Macan WilsonSimilar
Q2 1:23
4TH & 10
OWN 31
+17
70.4%
Hunter Niswander punt for 44 yds , Nick Nelson returns for 17 yds to the Wisc 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 0:4872% → 69%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+14
71.8%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Kyle Penniston for 14 yds to the Nwest 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
72.7%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Chris James for 2 yds to the Nwest 42Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 8
OPP 42
-3
71.4%
Alex Hornibrook sacked by Joe Gaziano for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 45Similar
Q2 0:29
3RD & 11
OPP 45
0
69.4%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Quintez CephusSimilar
Q2 0:21
4TH & 11
OPP 45
0
69.2%
Anthony Lotti punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
69.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 15PUNT
11 plays · 2 yds · 3:4033% → 33%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
67.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 6 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q3 14:28
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+9
66.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 9 yds to the Nwest 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
65.0%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Nwest 45Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
64.6%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Garrett DickersonSimilar
Q3 13:17
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+5
64.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
50
0
63.6%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Bennett SkowronekSimilar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 10
50
+3
63.6%
Clayton Thorson run for 3 yds to the Wisc 47Similar
Q3 12:13
3RD & 7
OPP 47
-15
63.7%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Nwest 38Similar
Q3 11:47
3RD & 22
OWN 38
-11
65.7%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Alec James for a loss of 11 yards to the Nwest 27Similar
Q3 11:15
4TH & 33
OWN 27
0
67.5%
Hunter Niswander punt for 52 yds, downed at the Wisc 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 16TD
4 plays · 79 yds · 1:5566% → 82%
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
65.5%
Jonathan Taylor run for 2 yds to the Wisc 23Similar
Q3 10:29
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+5
64.9%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Quintez Cephus for 5 yds to the Wisc 28Similar
Q3 9:50
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+61
63.8%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Quintez Cephus for 61 yds to the Nwest 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
81.6%
Jonathan Taylor run for 11 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 2:0323% → 21%
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
77.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 4 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
76.8%
Justin Jackson run for 8 yds to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
76.4%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Macan WilsonSimilar
Q3 8:13
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
76.5%
John Moten IV run for no gain to the Nwest 37Similar
Q3 7:48
3RD & 10
OWN 37
-8
77.7%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Chris Orr for a loss of 8 yards to the Nwest 29Similar
Q3 7:08
4TH & 18
OWN 29
+12
78.8%
Hunter Niswander punt for 36 yds , Nick Nelson returns for 12 yds to the Nwest 41 NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the Nwest 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 18TD
4 plays · 38 yds · 1:3681% → 89%
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
80.7%
Jazz Peavy run for no gain to the Nwest 38Similar
Q3 6:31
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+32
80.5%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Danny Davis III for 32 yds to the Nwest 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
81.2%
Jonathan Taylor run for 1 yd to the Nwest 5Similar
Q3 5:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
88.8%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Danny Davis III for 5 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:4513% → 12%
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
86.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 6 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
86.7%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn NagelSimilar
Q3 4:46
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
87.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Riley LeesSimilar
Q3 4:32
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
88.1%
Hunter Niswander punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wisc 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:4989% → 89%
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
88.5%
Bradrick Shaw run for 9 yds to the Wisc 41Similar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+4
89.2%
Bradrick Shaw run for 4 yds to the Wisc 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
89.6%
Jonathan Taylor run for 2 yds to the Wisc 47Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 8
OWN 47
-10
89.8%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Austin Ramesh) to the Wisc 37Similar
Q3 2:06
2ND & 18
OWN 37
+13
89.2%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Danny Davis III for 13 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 1:28
3RD & 5
50
0
89.4%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Danny Davis IIISimilar
Q3 1:21
4TH & 5
50
0
88.7%
Anthony Lotti punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Flynn Nagel at the Nwest 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:1511% → 10%
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
88.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 3 yds to the Nwest 19Similar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 7
OWN 19
0
88.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for no gain to the Nwest 19Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 7
OWN 19
-7
89.4%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Garret Dooley and Natrell Jamerson for a loss of 7 yards to the Nwest 12Similar
Q4 14:53
4TH & 14
OWN 12
0
90.0%
Hunter Niswander punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 22FG
8 plays · 38 yds · 3:3591% → 95%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
90.8%
Jonathan Taylor run for 2 yds to the Nwest 41Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+3
90.7%
Jonathan Taylor run for 3 yds to the Nwest 38Similar
Q4 13:36
3RD & 5
OPP 38
-6
90.4%
WISCONSIN Penalty, False Start (-6 Yards) to the Nwest 44Similar
Q4 13:08
3RD & 11
OPP 44
+33
90.2%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to A.J. Taylor for 33 yds to the Nwest 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
90.8%
Bradrick Shaw run for 6 yds to the Nwest 5Similar
Q4 11:53
2ND & 4
OPP 5
0
90.9%
Bradrick Shaw run for no gain to the Nwest 5Similar
Q4 11:17
3RD & 4
OPP 5
0
90.7%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Quintez CephusSimilar
Q4 11:12
4TH & 4
OPP 5
+23
95.0%
Rafael Gaglianone 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 23INT TD
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:087% → 1%
Q4 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
93.0%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Garret Dooley for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 22Similar
Q4 10:39
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+5
93.2%
John Moten IV run for 5 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q4 9:54
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+36
99.0%
Natrell Jamerson 36 Yd Interception Return (Rafael Gaglianone Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 24TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 5:021% → 7%
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
98.9%
Clayton Thorson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
98.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 9 yds to the Nwest 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
98.9%
Clayton Thorson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 35Similar
Q4 8:05
2ND & 11
OWN 35
-5
99.0%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Garret Dooley for a loss of 5 yards to the Nwest 30Similar
Q4 7:24
3RD & 16
OWN 30
+15
99.1%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Nwest 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
99.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:11
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+3
99.1%
Jesse Brown run for 3 yds to the Nwest 48Similar
Q4 6:36
3RD & 7
OWN 48
0
99.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Jace JamesSimilar
Q4 6:22
4TH & 7
OWN 48
+10
99.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Riley Lees for 10 yds to the Wisc 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
99.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Jeremy Larkin for 9 yds to the Wisc 33Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+4
99.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Jeremy Larkin for 4 yds to the Wisc 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+16
99.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 16 yds to the Wisc 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
99.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Garrett DickersonSimilar
Q4 4:51
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+11
99.2%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (11 Yards) to the Wisc 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
93.3%
Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman 2 Yd pass from Clayton Thorson (Charlie Kuhbander Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:2097% → 97%
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
96.8%
Jonathan Taylor run for no gain to the Wisc 6Similar
Q4 4:28
3RD & 13
OWN 3
0
97.4%
Alex Hornibrook pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:18
4TH & 13
OWN 3
0
97.1%
Anthony Lotti punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Flynn Nagel at the Nwest 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 26TD
7 plays · 55 yds · 1:213% → 15%
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
97.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 6 yds to the Wisc 49Similar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+8
97.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 8 yds to the Wisc 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
97.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Justin JacksonSimilar
Q4 3:38
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
97.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Jace JamesSimilar
Q4 3:27
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+24
97.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Riley Lees for 24 yds to the Wisc 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+12
96.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 12 yds to the Wisc 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
84.7%
Garrett Dickerson 5 Yd pass from Clayton Thorson (Charlie Kuhbander Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 27PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 1:3095% → 96%
Q4 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
95.1%
Bradrick Shaw run for 4 yds to the Nwest 39Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+2
95.5%
Bradrick Shaw run for 2 yds to the Nwest 37Similar
Q4 1:57
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+2
95.9%
Bradrick Shaw run for 2 yds to the Nwest 35Similar
Q4 1:09
4TH & 2
OPP 35
0
96.2%
Anthony Lotti punt for 33 yds, downed at the Nwest 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 28SF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:078% → 3%
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+7
92.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Macan Wilson for 7 yds to the Nwest 9Similar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 3
OWN 9
-9
96.9%
Clayton Thorson sacked by D'Cota Dixon for a loss of 9 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 29END OF GAME
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:2497% → 96%
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
96.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 49Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 49
-1
96.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:16
Jonathan Taylor run for 11 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)
+17.8
TD · Q4 2:53
Garrett Dickerson 5 Yd pass from Clayton Thorson (Charlie Kuhbander Kick)
-12.1
TD · Q2 2:38
Cameron Green 1 Yd pass from Clayton Thorson (Charlie Kuhbander Kick)
-8.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com