2017 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2017 · High Point Solutions Stadium
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Win probability · RUTG
modelRUTG aheadOSU aheadconfidence bandkey playRUTG scoreOSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:50 · Ryan Anderson punt for 38 yds , K.J. Hill returns for a loss of 3 yards to the OhSt 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 10:29: Mike Weber run for 1 yd for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK) — OSU win probability +0.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:56: Mike Weber run for 3 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK) — OSU win probability +0.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:34: J.T. Barrett pass complete to Johnnie Dixon for 70 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK) — OSU win probability +1.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:08: J.T. Barrett pass complete to Johnnie Dixon for 39 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK) — RUTG win probability +0.1 pts (now 3%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:46: Mike Weber run for 2 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK) — OSU win probability +1.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
RUTG made the numbers' call on 10 of 11OSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 15:00OSU 4th & 8 at OSU 38, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 95.2% before the snapGo for it95.2%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.2%average punt
- Q1 13:07RUTG 4th & 16 at RUTG 5, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snapGo for it5.1%−0.213% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.3%average punt
- Q1 10:27RUTG 4th & 8 at RUTG 47, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.7% before the snapGo for it5.7%−<0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.8%average punt
- Q1 7:34OSU 4th & 5 at OSU 7, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.5% before the snapGo for it93.5%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.5%average punt
- Q2 14:50RUTG 4th & 10 at RUTG 19, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.7% before the snapGo for it6.6%−0.228% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.8%average punt
- Q2 14:23OSU 4th & 2 at OSU 44, up 14Close callPunted · 93.4% before the snapGo for it93.5%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.3%−0.2average punt
- Q2 12:50RUTG 4th & 14 at RUTG 22, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.9% before the snapGo for it6.7%−0.517% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.1%average punt
- Q2 7:27RUTG 4th & 9 at RUTG 11, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snapGo for it4.7%−0.330% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.0%average punt
- Q2 5:54OSU 4th & 1 at RUTG 41, up 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call95.8%70% to convertField goal95.3%−0.432% to makePunt95.4%−0.4average punt
- Q2 2:40RUTG 4th & 4 at RUTG 25, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snapGo for it2.2%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.2%average punt
- Q3 13:33OSU 4th & 5 at RUTG 36, up 35Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.8%42% to convertField goal98.7%−0.142% to makePunt98.7%−0.1average punt
- Q3 12:28RUTG 4th & 4 at RUTG 42, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snapGo for it1.0%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.0%average punt
- Q3 4:02RUTG 4th & 5 at OSU 20, down 42Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.3%−<0.140% to convertField goal0.3%75% to makePunt-0.1%−0.4average punt
- Q3 3:50OSU 4th & 5 at OSU 45, up 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snapGo for it99.4%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.4%average punt
- Q3 1:41RUTG 4th & 18 at RUTG 11, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.211% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q4 13:49RUTG 4th & 7 at RUTG 47, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 0:43RUTG 4th & 4 at OSU 14, down 56Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.146% to convertField goalTheir call0.1%84% to makePunt0.1%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
- Q1 10:29OSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.1%97% to makeGo for two94.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:56OSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.8%97% to makeGo for two92.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:34OSU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.5%97% to makeGo for two94.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:08OSU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.4%97% to makeGo for two97.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:46OSU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.5%97% to makeGo for two98.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:02OSU Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:56OSU Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:06OSU Touchdown, up 55 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartOSUDrive 1PUNT6 plays · 2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 36
-10
3.2%
Barrett, J.T. rush for 9 yards to the OSU45 (Hampton, Saquan), PENALTY OSU holding (Baugh, Marcus) 10 yards to the OSU26, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 2PUNT5 plays · -6 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 13:07
4TH & 16
OWN 5
+7
3.6%
Ryan Anderson punt for 52 yds , K.J. Hill returns for 7 yds to the OhSt 12 OHIO ST Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the OhSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 3TD4 plays · 60 yds · 0:4796% → 96%
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+18
3.9%
Barrett, J.T. pass incomplete to Campbell, P. (Hester, Kiy), PENALTY RU pass interference (Hester, Kiy) 18 yards to the RU5, 1ST DOWN OSU, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 4PUNT11 plays · 30 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+14
4.0%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Raheem Blackshear for 14 yds to the Rutgr 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:27
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+5
4.0%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Max Anthony for 5 yds to the Rutgr 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:27
4TH & 8
OWN 47
+51
4.0%
Ryan Anderson punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the RUTGERS 2 OHIO ST Penalty, roughing the kicker ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0096% → 95%
Q1 7:34
4TH & 5
OWN 7
+36
4.6%
Drue Chrisman punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OhSt 33 RUTGERS Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the OhSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 6INT7 plays · 27 yds · 0:005% → 5%
OSUDrive 7TD8 plays · 87 yds · 2:5695% → 95%
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+20
5.2%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Parris Campbell for 20 yds to the Rutgr 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
5.2%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Marcus Baugh for 6 yds to the Rutgr 18Similar
Q1 2:52
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+8
5.2%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to K.J. Hill for 8 yds to the Rutgr 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
5.2%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Terry McLaurin for a loss of 1 yard to the Rutgr 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:005% → 5%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 10PUNT8 plays · 9 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
5.3%
Robert Martin run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 19 Robert Martin fumbled, forced by Sam Hubbard,Similar
Q2 12:50
3RD & 9
OWN 27
0
5.2%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Robert Martin for no gain to the Rutgr 27Similar
Q2 12:50
4TH & 14
OWN 22
-3
5.2%
Ryan Anderson punt for 38 yds , K.J. Hill returns for a loss of 3 yards to the OhSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 11TD3 plays · 63 yds · 1:0395% → 96%
RUTGDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:004% → 4%
OSUDrive 13TD8 plays · 50 yds · 1:4697% → 97%
RUTGDrive 14PUNT7 plays · 6 yds · 1:232% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 15TD8 plays · 75 yds · 1:4797% → 99%
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
3.0%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Parris Campbell, broken up by Ross Douglas OHIO ST Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 2:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-3
3.0%
J.T. Barrett sacked by Kemoko Turay for a loss of 3 yards to the OhSt 22Similar
Q2 2:33
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+46
3.1%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Binjimen Victor for 46 yds to the Rutgr 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
2.7%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Johnnie Dixon for 6 yds to the Rutgr 26Similar
Q2 2:33
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+13
2.7%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Terry McLaurin for 13 yds to the Rutgr 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
2.6%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Marcus Baugh for 4 yds to the Rutgr 9Similar
Q2 2:33
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+7
2.6%
Barrett, J.T. pass incomplete to Holmes, Jalyn (Wharton, Isaiah), PENALTY RU pass interference (Wharton, Isaiah) 7 yards to the RU2, 1ST DOWN OSU, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 16END OF HALF2 plays · 5 yds · 0:001% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 17INT5 plays · 15 yds · 0:001% → 1%
OSUDrive 18DOWNS4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-13
0.9%
Hunter Hayek pass complete to Kyle Bolin for a loss of 8 yards to the Rutgr 28 RUTGERS Penalty, illegal forward pass (Kyle Bolin) to the Rutgr 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 20TD11 plays · 80 yds · 2:5499% → 99%
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
0.9%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Marcus Baugh for 9 yds to the OhSt 29Similar
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-15
0.8%
Barrett, J.T. pass complete to Dixon, Johnnie for 67 yards to the RU0, clock 10:15, PENALTY OSU pass interference (Dixon, Johnnie) 15 yards to the OSU18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 15
OWN 28
+27
0.8%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Terry McLaurin for 27 yds to the Rutgr 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 0
+15
0.7%
J.T. Barrett run for 30 yds to the Rutgr 15 for a 1ST down OHIO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Terry McLaurin) to the Rutgr 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
0.8%
RUTGERS Penalty, offside defense (Sebastian Joseph) to the Rutgr 29Similar
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
0.6%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Binjimen Victor for 23 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)Similar
Q3 8:02
1ST & 0
OWN 35
+15
0.7%
RUTGERS Penalty, roughing passer (Sebastian Joseph) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 21DOWNS11 plays · 63 yds · 3:531% → 0%
OSUDrive 22PUNT8 plays · 29 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 3:50
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+7
0.4%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Terry McLaurin for 7 yds to the OhSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
0.4%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Luke Farrell for 5 yds to the OhSt 45Similar
Q3 3:50
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
0.4%
Dwayne Haskins pass incomplete to Johnnie Dixon, broken up by Isaiah WhartonSimilar
Q3 3:50
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
0.5%
Drue Chrisman punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Hunter Hayek at the Rutgr 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 23PUNT4 plays · -8 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 1:41
3RD & 9
OWN 20
-9
0.2%
Johnathan Lewis sacked by Dante Booker for a loss of 9 yards to the Rutgr 11Similar
Q3 1:41
4TH & 18
OWN 11
0
0.2%
Ryan Anderson punt for 37 yds , Terry McLaurin returns for no gain to the Rutgr 48 Terry McLaurin fumbled, recovered by OhSt Terry McLaurinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 24TD6 plays · 48 yds · 1:14100% → 100%
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
0.3%
Haskins, Dwayne pass incomplete to Victor, B. (Wharton, Isaiah), PENALTY RU offside defense (Gray, K.J.) 5 yards to the RU43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:56
3RD & 9
OPP 35
+35
0.3%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Demario McCall for 35 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 25PUNT8 plays · 21 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 13:49
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+15
0.1%
OHIO ST Penalty, targeting (Jahsen Wint) to the Rutgr 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:49
4TH & 7
OWN 47
0
0.1%
Ryan Anderson punt for 50 yds , Demario McCall returns for no gain to the OhSt 2 Demario McCall fumbled, recovered by OhSt Demario McCallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 26TD7 plays · 98 yds · 3:23100% → 100%
RUTGDrive 27MISSED FG14 plays · 60 yds · 7:170% → 0%
Q4 8:00
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+3
0.1%
Johnathan Lewis pass complete to Nakia Griffin-Stewart for 3 yds to the Rutgr 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+19
0.1%
Johnathan Lewis run for 4 yds to the OhSt 40 for a 1ST down OHIO ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Baron Browning) to the OhSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 12
OPP 47
+8
0.1%
Giovanni Rescigno pass complete to Josh Hicks for 8 yds to the OhSt 39Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+15
0.1%
Giovanni Rescigno pass complete to Josh Hicks for 15 yds to the OhSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 28END OF GAME1 play · -3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:34
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Johnnie Dixon for 70 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)
-1.8
TD · Q2 0:46
Mike Weber run for 2 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)
-1.6
TD · Q2 14:56
Mike Weber run for 3 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)
-0.5