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IU

Indiana 14 at Penn State 45

PSU
2017 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2017 · Beaver Stadium
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Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadIU aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 15:00 · Blake Gillikin punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Luke Timian at the Ind 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+42.5+21.30−21.3−42.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 149Pregame prior+13.8Home team on offense+30.1Score differential+20.3Garbage-time factor+11.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+11.1Blowout margin−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:41: Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 8 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK) — PSU win probability +2.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:01: Ricky Brookins run for 2 yds for a TD, (Griffin Oakes KICK) — IU win probability +2.7 pts (now 6%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:44: Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Simmie Cobbs Jr. for 18 yds for a TD, (Griffin Oakes KICK) — IU win probability +5.1 pts (now 9%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 5:50: Tyler Davis 45 yd FG GOOD — PSU win probability +3.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:22: Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 24 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK) — PSU win probability +2.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10IU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 11:41IU 4th & 9 at PSU 38, down 14
    Close callPunted · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    10.4%−<0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    10.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:34PSU 4th & 9 at PSU 46, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.9%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:34IU 4th & 14 at IU 21, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:01PSU 4th & 18 at PSU 17, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.5%−1.0
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:40IU 4th & 10 at IU 33, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.9%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:23PSU 4th & 1 at PSU 37, up 21
    Close callPunted · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.3%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:21IU 4th & 9 at IU 12, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:11PSU 4th & 1 at IU 34, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    93.9%−0.9
    47% to make
    Punt
    93.7%−1.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:11PSU 4th & 27 at IU 46, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.1%−0.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    94.4%−0.5
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.8%
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:16IU 4th & 7 at IU 28, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.4%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:23PSU 4th & 6 at PSU 35, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.1%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:39PSU 4th & 3 at IU 3, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 91.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.2%−0.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    87.7%−4.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:50IU 4th & 7 at IU 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.6%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:50PSU 4th & 14 at IU 27, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.4%−1.3
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.7%
    62% to make
    Punt
    89.0%−3.7
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:22IU 4th & 6 at IU 43, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 15:00PSU 4th & 7 at PSU 30, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.7%
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:55IU 4th & 7 at PSU 37, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    1.3%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    1.3%−0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:36PSU 4th & 6 at IU 24, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.1%
    68% to make
    Punt
    98.6%−0.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 7:36IU 4th & 4 at IU 31, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:08IU 4th & 1 at PSU 49, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5IU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 14:46PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:41PSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:41PSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:01IU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:44IU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:22PSU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:13PSU Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IUDrive 2FUMBLE
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
92.1%
Lagow, Richard pass incomplete to Cobbs, Simmie, PENALTY PSU pass interference (Campbell, C.) 7 yards to the IND25, 1ST DOWN IND, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
92.1%
Morgan Ellison run for 18 yds to the Ind 39 Morgan Ellison fumbled, forced by Christian Campbell, recovered by PnSt Jason Cabinda , return for 4 yds to the Ind 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3TD
6 plays · 39 yds · 2:4592% → 92%
Q1 14:26
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
92.1%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 4 yds to the Ind 35Similar
Q1 14:26
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+24
92.1%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 24 yds to the Ind 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:26
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
92.1%
Saquon Barkley run for 7 yds to the Ind 4Similar
Q1 14:26
3RD & 1
OPP 2
+1
92.1%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the Ind 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:26
2ND & 3
OPP 4
+2
92.1%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 2 yds to the Ind 2Similar
Q1 11:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.2%
Trace McSorley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 37 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
92.0%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Simmie Cobbs Jr. for 15 yds to the Ind 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
92.0%
Devonte Williams run for 1 yd to the Ind 41Similar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+20
92.0%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Ian Thomas for 20 yds to the PnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
92.0%
INDIANA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 44Similar
Q1 11:41
1ST & 15
OPP 44
+2
92.0%
Devonte Williams run for 2 yds to the PnSt 42Similar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 13
OPP 42
+1
92.0%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Simmie Cobbs Jr. for 1 yd to the PnSt 41Similar
Q1 11:41
3RD & 12
OPP 41
+3
92.0%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Ian Thomas for 3 yds to the PnSt 38Similar
Q1 11:41
4TH & 9
OPP 38
0
92.0%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 2:1192% → 93%
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
92.1%
Trace McSorley run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 18Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+4
92.1%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 4 yds to the PnSt 22Similar
Q1 8:45
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+23
92.1%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 23 yds to the PnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
92.2%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the PnSt 46Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 9
OWN 46
0
92.1%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q1 8:45
3RD & 9
OWN 46
0
92.0%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:34
4TH & 9
OWN 46
+13
93.2%
Blake Gillikin punt for 40 yds , J-Shun Harris II returns for a loss of 1 yard for a TD J-Shun Harris II fumbled, forced by Irvin Charles, recovered by PnSt Nick Scott , return for 13 yds for a TD (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
93.3%
Morgan Ellison run for 6 yds to the Ind 31Similar
Q1 6:34
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
93.2%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Luke TimianSimilar
Q1 6:34
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-10
93.3%
Richard Lagow sacked by Jason Cabinda for a loss of 10 yards to the Ind 21Similar
Q1 6:34
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
93.4%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 4:2893% → 96%
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-6
93.4%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 6 yards to the PnSt 21Similar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 16
OWN 21
+4
93.4%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 4 yds to the PnSt 25Similar
Q1 5:09
3RD & 12
OWN 25
-3
93.3%
Trace McSorley sacked by Allen Stallings IV for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 22Similar
Q1 5:09
4TH & 15
OWN 22
+15
93.2%
Gillikin, Blake punt 45 yards to the IND33, fair catch by Timian, Luke, PENALTY IND roughing the kicker (Thompson, Jayme) 15 yards to the PSU37, 1ST DOWN PSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+36
93.6%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 36 yds to the Ind 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
93.7%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 6 yds to the Ind 21Similar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+6
93.7%
Trace McSorley run for 6 yds to the Ind 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
93.7%
Saquon Barkley run for 7 yds to the Ind 8Similar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 3
OPP 8
0
93.7%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Mike GesickiSimilar
Q1 0:41
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+8
96.2%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 8 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 8TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:403% → 6%
Q1 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
96.8%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Ian Thomas for 7 yds to the Ind 32Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+12
96.7%
Morgan Ellison run for 12 yds to the Ind 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
96.8%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Taysir MackSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
96.8%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Luke TimianSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+54
96.8%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Ian Thomas for 54 yds to the PnSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
94.1%
Ricky Brookins run for 2 yds for a TD, (Griffin Oakes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
94.9%
Saquon Barkley run for 3 yds to the PnSt 28Similar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
94.9%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Mike GesickiSimilar
Q2 14:01
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-11
94.8%
Trace McSorley sacked by Tegray Scales for a loss of 11 yards to the PnSt 17Similar
Q2 14:01
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
94.6%
Blake Gillikin punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ind 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
94.8%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Morgan EllisonSimilar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
94.9%
Richard Lagow pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:40
3RD & 10
OWN 33
0
95.0%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Luke TimianSimilar
Q2 12:40
4TH & 10
OWN 33
0
95.0%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
95.1%
Saquon Barkley run for 5 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
Q2 12:23
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+4
95.2%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 4 yds to the PnSt 37Similar
Q2 12:23
3RD & 1
OWN 37
0
95.1%
Trace McSorley run for no gain to the PnSt 37Similar
Q2 12:23
4TH & 1
OWN 37
+5
94.9%
Blake Gillikin punt for 57 yds , Luke Timian returns for 5 yds to the Ind 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-3
95.3%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Simmie Cobbs Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the Ind 8Similar
Q2 10:21
2ND & 13
OWN 8
+4
95.4%
Morgan Ellison run for 4 yds to the Ind 12Similar
Q2 10:21
3RD & 9
OWN 12
0
95.3%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Ian ThomasSimilar
Q2 10:21
4TH & 9
OWN 12
0
95.3%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ind 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · -3 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
96.2%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q2 9:11
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+4
96.1%
Saquon Barkley run for 4 yds to the Ind 39Similar
Q2 9:11
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+5
96.1%
Saquon Barkley run for 5 yds to the Ind 34Similar
Q2 9:11
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+5
95.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 5 yds to the Ind 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-11
96.2%
Trace McSorley sacked by Tegray Scales for a loss of 11 yards to the Ind 40 PENN ST Penalty, intentional grounding (Trace McSorley) to the Ind 40Similar
Q2 9:11
2ND & 21
OPP 40
0
96.1%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Juwan JohnsonSimilar
Q2 9:11
3RD & 21
OPP 40
-6
96.0%
Trace McSorley sacked by Nate Hoff for a loss of 6 yards to the Ind 46Similar
Q2 9:11
4TH & 27
OPP 46
0
95.7%
Blake Gillikin punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Luke Timian at the Ind 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
95.6%
Peyton Ramsey run for 5 yds to the Ind 14Similar
Q2 6:16
2ND & 5
OWN 14
+4
95.5%
Peyton Ramsey run for 4 yds to the Ind 18Similar
Q2 6:16
3RD & 1
OWN 18
+7
95.5%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ryan Watercutter for 7 yds to the Ind 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
95.5%
Whop Philyor run for 2 yds to the Ind 27Similar
Q2 6:16
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
95.5%
Peyton Ramsey run for 1 yd to the Ind 28Similar
Q2 6:16
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
95.6%
Richard Lagow pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:16
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
95.6%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 15INT
4 plays · 20 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
96.5%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 11 yds to the PnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
96.6%
Saquon Barkley run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:23
2ND & 2
50
+1
96.6%
Trace McSorley run for 1 yd to the Ind 49Similar
Q2 4:23
3RD & 1
OPP 49
0
96.5%
Trace McSorley pass intercepted Jonathan Crawford return for no gain to the Ind 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 16TD
10 plays · 60 yds · 2:054% → 9%
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
95.9%
Morgan Ellison run for 2 yds to the Ind 42Similar
Q2 2:49
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+13
95.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Simmie Cobbs Jr. for 13 yds to the PnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
95.8%
Morgan Ellison run for 2 yds to the PnSt 43Similar
Q2 2:49
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+7
95.8%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ian Thomas for 7 yds to the PnSt 36Similar
Q2 2:49
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+5
95.7%
Morgan Ellison run for 5 yds to the PnSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+12
95.7%
Peyton Ramsey run for 12 yds to the PnSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
95.6%
Peyton Ramsey run for 1 yd to the PnSt 18Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+18
90.6%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Simmie Cobbs Jr. for 18 yds for a TD, (Griffin Oakes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:2093% → 92%
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
92.9%
Saquon Barkley run for 5 yds to the PnSt 36Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 5
OWN 36
0
93.1%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 5
OWN 36
-1
92.9%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 35Similar
Q2 0:23
4TH & 6
OWN 35
0
92.4%
Blake Gillikin punt for 55 yds, downed at the Ind 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 18END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-2
93.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ind 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 19INT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
92.1%
Morgan Ellison run for 4 yds to the Ind 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
91.8%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Morgan Ellison, broken up by Marcus AllenSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+17
92.0%
Peyton Ramsey pass intercepted Amani Oruwariye return for 17 yds to the Ind 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 20MISSED FG
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:4893% → 92%
Q3 14:27
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
92.8%
DaeSean Hamilton run for 2 yds to the Ind 19Similar
Q3 14:27
2ND & 8
OPP 19
0
92.8%
Saquon Barkley run for no gain to the Ind 19Similar
Q3 14:27
3RD & 8
OPP 19
+12
92.6%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 12 yds to the Ind 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
92.8%
Saquon Barkley run for 2 yds to the Ind 5Similar
Q3 14:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
92.8%
Saquon Barkley run for 2 yds to the Ind 3Similar
Q3 14:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
92.6%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Juwan JohnsonSimilar
Q3 11:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
92.4%
Tyler Davis 21 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 0:498% → 8%
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
92.2%
Morgan Ellison run for no gain to the Ind 20Similar
Q3 11:39
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
92.3%
Devonte Williams run for 2 yds to the Ind 22Similar
Q3 10:50
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+10
91.8%
Peyton Ramsey run for 10 yds to the Ind 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
90.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ricky Brookins for 2 yds to the Ind 34Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+1
91.0%
Ricky Brookins run for 1 yd to the Ind 35Similar
Q3 10:50
3RD & 7
OWN 35
0
91.1%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Simmie Cobbs Jr., broken up by Tyrell ChavisSimilar
Q3 10:50
4TH & 7
OWN 35
0
91.8%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 32 yds, downed at the PnSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 22FG
8 plays · 40 yds · 3:2492% → 95%
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
91.8%
Trace McSorley run for 1 yd to the PnSt 34Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+18
91.8%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DeAndre Thompkins for 18 yds to the Ind 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
92.3%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 5 yds to the Ind 43Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+20
92.3%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 20 yds to the Ind 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-1
92.3%
Trace McSorley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 24Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 11
OPP 24
0
92.3%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q3 9:14
3RD & 11
OPP 24
-3
92.0%
Trace McSorley sacked by Tegray Scales for a loss of 3 yards to the Ind 27Similar
Q3 5:50
4TH & 14
OPP 27
+45
95.4%
Tyler Davis 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 23FUMBLE
4 plays · 27 yds · 0:005% → 6%
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
94.7%
Devonte Williams run for 4 yds to the Ind 29Similar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+23
94.3%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Devonte Williams for 23 yds to the PnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
94.0%
Devonte Williams run for no gain to the PnSt 48 Devonte Williams fumbled, forced by Marcus Allen, recovered by PnSt Parker CothrenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 24TD
4 plays · 52 yds · 1:3696% → 99%
Q3 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+18
96.2%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saeed Blacknall for 18 yds to the Ind 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
96.2%
Trace McSorley run for 7 yds to the Ind 27Similar
Q3 4:58
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+3
96.2%
Trace McSorley run for 3 yds to the Ind 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
99.1%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 24 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 25PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.1%
Cole Gest run for 5 yds to the Ind 30Similar
Q3 3:22
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
98.0%
Peyton Ramsey run for 3 yds to the Ind 33Similar
Q3 3:22
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+6
98.0%
Cole Gest run for 6 yds to the Ind 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
98.0%
Cole Gest run for 4 yds to the Ind 43Similar
Q3 3:22
2ND & 6
OWN 43
0
98.0%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Ryan WatercutterSimilar
Q3 3:22
3RD & 6
OWN 43
0
98.0%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Ryan WatercutterSimilar
Q3 3:22
4TH & 6
OWN 43
0
98.0%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 30 yds, downed at the PnSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1799% → 99%
Q3 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
99.2%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 25Similar
Q3 1:17
2ND & 12
OWN 25
0
99.1%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Juwan JohnsonSimilar
Q3 1:17
3RD & 12
OWN 25
+5
99.1%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Tom Pancoast for 5 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 30
0
99.1%
Blake Gillikin punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Luke Timian at the Ind 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 27DOWNS
12 plays · 33 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
98.6%
Whop Philyor run for 8 yds to the Ind 38Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+2
98.6%
Cole Gest run for 2 yds to the Ind 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
98.6%
Peyton Ramsey run for no gain to the Ind 40Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
98.6%
Peyton Ramsey run for no gain to the Ind 40 INDIANA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+10
98.6%
Peyton Ramsey run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
50
+1
98.6%
Ricky Brookins run for 1 yd to the PnSt 49Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+5
98.6%
Peyton Ramsey run for 5 yds to the PnSt 44Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+4
98.6%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Whop Philyor for 4 yds to the PnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
98.6%
Peyton Ramsey pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+3
98.6%
Whop Philyor run for 3 yds to the PnSt 37Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 7
OPP 37
0
98.6%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Simmie Cobbs Jr., broken up by Christian CampbellSimilar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 7
OPP 37
0
98.6%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Luke Timian, broken up by Grant HaleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 28MISSED FG
9 plays · 39 yds · 3:5899% → 100%
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
99.4%
Saquon Barkley run for 8 yds to the PnSt 45Similar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 2
OWN 45
0
99.5%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Saquon BarkleySimilar
Q4 11:34
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+3
99.4%
Saquon Barkley run for 3 yds to the PnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
99.5%
Trace McSorley run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 47Similar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+25
99.4%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 25 yds to the Ind 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
99.5%
Saquon Barkley run for 4 yds to the Ind 24Similar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 6
OPP 24
0
99.4%
Trace McSorley run for no gain to the Ind 24Similar
Q4 11:34
3RD & 6
OPP 24
0
99.4%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q4 7:36
4TH & 6
OPP 24
+42
99.5%
Tyler Davis 42 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Jonathan CrawfordSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 29PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.2%
Peyton Ramsey run for 2 yds to the Ind 27Similar
Q4 7:36
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
99.2%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Taysir Mack for 4 yds to the Ind 31Similar
Q4 7:36
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
99.2%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 42 yds, downed at the PnSt 27Similar
Q4 7:36
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
99.2%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Simmie Cobbs Jr., broken up by Lamont WadeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 30TD
5 plays · 73 yds · 2:20100% → 100%
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+35
99.6%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DeAndre Thompkins for 35 yds to the Ind 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
99.6%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 9 yds to the Ind 29Similar
Q4 6:33
2ND & 1
OPP 29
0
99.6%
Saquon Barkley run for no gain to the Ind 29Similar
Q4 6:33
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+13
99.6%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 13 yds to the Ind 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
99.9%
Saquon Barkley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 16 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 31END OF GAME
10 plays · 40 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
99.9%
Cole Gest run for 11 yds to the Ind 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
99.9%
Cole Gest run for 8 yds to the Ind 39Similar
Q4 4:08
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+3
99.9%
Cole Gest run for 3 yds to the Ind 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
99.9%
Cole Gest run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ind 40Similar
Q4 4:08
2ND & 12
OWN 40
+9
99.9%
Cole Gest run for 9 yds to the Ind 49Similar
Q4 4:08
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+2
99.9%
Cole Gest run for 2 yds to the PnSt 49Similar
Q4 4:08
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+3
99.9%
Alex Rodriguez run for 3 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
99.9%
Alex Rodriguez run for 4 yds to the PnSt 42Similar
Q4 4:08
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+2
99.9%
Alex Rodriguez run for 2 yds to the PnSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:44
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Simmie Cobbs Jr. for 18 yds for a TD, (Griffin Oakes KICK)
-5.1
FG · Q3 5:50
Tyler Davis 45 yd FG GOOD
+3.4
TD · Q3 3:22
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 24 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)
+2.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com