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MD

Maryland 31 at Minnesota 24

MINN
2017 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2017 · Huntington Bank Stadium
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Win probability · MINN
modelMINN aheadMD aheadconfidence bandkey playMINN scoreMD score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:00 · Wade Lees punt for 41 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 140Pregame prior+4.3Home team on offense−20.2Garbage-time factor−8.9Score differential−4.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:17: Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D.J. Moore for 27 yds for a TD, (Henry Darmstadter KICK) — MD win probability +12.2 pts (now 41%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:19: Conor Rhoda pass complete to Brandon Lingen for 7 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK) — MINN win probability +13.3 pts (now 70%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:11: Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Jake Funk for 4 yds for a TD, (Henry Darmstadter KICK) — MD win probability +26.9 pts (now 74%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 3:54: Shannon Brooks run for 1 yd for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK) — MINN win probability +38.1 pts (now 69%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:10: Ty Johnson run for 34 yds for a TD, (Henry Darmstadter KICK) — MD win probability +36.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MINN made the numbers' call on 5 of 6MD made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00MD 4th & 6 at MINN 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.2%
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    18.2%−<0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    17.7%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:05MINN 4th & 5 at MINN 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.3%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:56MD 4th & 10 at MINN 30, tied
    Close callWent for it · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.3%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    21.5%
    56% to make
    Punt
    21.2%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:18MD 4th & 10 at MD 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.5%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:58MINN 4th & 7 at MD 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.8%−1.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.9%
    70% to make
    Punt
    54.3%−6.6
    average punt
  6. Q3 15:00MINN 4th & 1 at MD 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    56.6%−3.9
    45% to make
    Punt
    56.1%−4.5
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:26MINN 4th & 3 at MD 24, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.0%−1.3
    68% to make
    Punt
    44.0%−11.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:26MD 4th & 9 at MD 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.8%−2.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:19MD 4th & 13 at MD 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%−3.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:50MINN 4th & 16 at MINN 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.0%−4.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.6%
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:11MINN 4th & 8 at MINN 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%−1.9
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:00MD 4th & 6 at MINN 41, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 76.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    74.4%−2.2
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    75.1%−1.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MINN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MD made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 2:44MD Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:18MINN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:17MD Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:19MINN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:11MD Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:54MINN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.3%−1.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:10MD Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.8%−0.9
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MDDrive 1DOWNS
16 plays · 64 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
79.8%
Ty Johnson run for 7 yds to the Mary 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+11
79.8%
Max Bortenschlager run for 11 yds to the Minn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
79.8%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 4 yds to the Minn 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+2
79.8%
Ty Johnson run for 2 yds to the Minn 41Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+6
79.8%
Ty Johnson run for 6 yds to the Minn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
79.8%
Max Bortenschlager pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+13
79.8%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 13 yds to the Minn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
79.8%
Max Bortenschlager run for 1 yd to the Minn 21Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 21
0
79.8%
Max Bortenschlager pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 21
+18
79.8%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D.J. Moore for 18 yds to the Minn 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
79.8%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 2 yds to the Minn 1Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
79.8%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 2Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
79.8%
MARYLAND Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Minn 7Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
79.8%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Taivon Jacobs for 1 yd to the Minn 6Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
79.8%
Ryan Brand run for 5 yds to the Minn 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0078% → 77%
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
77.8%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Minn 3Similar
Q1 8:05
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+3
77.8%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the Minn 6Similar
Q1 8:05
3RD & 5
OWN 6
0
77.5%
Conor Rhoda pass incomplete to Rodney SmithSimilar
Q1 8:05
4TH & 5
OWN 6
+12
77.4%
Ryan Santoso punt for 54 yds , D.J. Moore returns for 12 yds to the Minn 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 3TD
10 plays · 48 yds · 3:3123% → 28%
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
76.6%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 5 yds to the Minn 43Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+13
76.5%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D.J. Moore for 13 yds to the Minn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
76.4%
Ty Johnson run for 7 yds to the Minn 23Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 3
OPP 23
-15
76.3%
Bortenschlager pass complete to Jacobs, T. for 12 yards to the MINN11 (Winfield, A), PENALTY UMD pass interference (Veii, J.) 15 yards to the MINN38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 18
OPP 38
+8
76.8%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 8 yds to the Minn 30Similar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 10
OPP 30
0
76.7%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to D.J. MooreSimilar
Q1 3:56
4TH & 10
OPP 30
+22
76.7%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to DJ Turner for 22 yds to the Minn 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
75.6%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 1 yd to the Minn 7Similar
Q1 2:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
71.6%
Max Bortenschlager run for 7 yds for a TD, (Henry Darmstadter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 4TD
10 plays · 62 yds · 4:2673% → 78%
Q1 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
73.4%
Conor Rhoda pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:44
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-2
73.4%
Rodney Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 36Similar
Q1 2:44
3RD & 12
OWN 36
+24
72.8%
Conor Rhoda pass complete to Brandon Lingen for 24 yds to the Mary 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
74.2%
Rodney Smith run for 6 yds to the Mary 34Similar
Q1 2:44
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+3
74.7%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the Mary 31Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+5
72.5%
Shannon Brooks run for 5 yds to the Mary 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+23
73.1%
Conor Rhoda pass complete to Nate Wozniak for 23 yds to the Mary 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
73.1%
Shannon Brooks run for 2 yds to the Mary 1Similar
Q2 13:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
77.5%
Rodney Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
74.6%
Ty Johnson run for 1 yd to the Mary 21Similar
Q2 13:18
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-1
74.6%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D.J. Moore for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 20Similar
Q2 13:18
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
75.1%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to D.J. MooreSimilar
Q2 13:18
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
75.5%
Wade Lees punt for 33 yds, downed at the Minn 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 6INT
5 plays · 38 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
76.5%
Conor Rhoda pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:43
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+34
76.3%
Conor Rhoda pass complete to Phillip Howard for 19 yds to the MINNESOTA 34 for a 1ST down MARYLAND Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Mary 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
77.2%
Rodney Smith run for no gain to the Mary 19Similar
Q2 11:43
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+4
77.2%
Rodney Smith run for 4 yds to the Mary 15Similar
Q2 11:43
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+3
76.7%
Conor Rhoda pass intercepted Josh Woods return for 3 yds to the Mary 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 7TD
12 plays · 92 yds · 4:3326% → 41%
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+7
73.8%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Jacquille Veii for 7 yds to the Mary 15Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 3
OWN 15
+2
73.2%
Ty Johnson run for 2 yds to the Mary 17Similar
Q2 9:50
3RD & 1
OWN 17
+2
73.6%
Ty Johnson run for 2 yds to the Mary 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
73.2%
Max Bortenschlager pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+4
73.2%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 4 yds to the Mary 23Similar
Q2 9:50
3RD & 6
OWN 23
+9
73.6%
Bortenschlager pass incomplete to Moore, D., PENALTY MINN pass interference (Shenault, A) 9 yards to the UMD32, 1ST DOWN UMD, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
72.8%
Ty Johnson run for 4 yds to the Mary 36Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+21
72.4%
Ty Johnson run for 21 yds to the Minn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
71.4%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to Josh Woods, broken up by Winston DeLattiboudereSimilar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+5
71.4%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Jacquille Veii for 5 yds to the Minn 38Similar
Q2 9:50
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+11
71.6%
Jake Funk run for 11 yds to the Minn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
59.4%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D.J. Moore for 27 yds for a TD, (Henry Darmstadter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 8FG
11 plays · 42 yds · 4:1963% → 67%
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
63.1%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the Minn 38Similar
Q2 5:17
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+10
64.2%
Shannon Brooks run for 10 yds to the Minn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
64.8%
Rhoda, Conor pass incomplete to Johnson, Tyler, PENALTY UMD pass interference (Jackson, J.) 15 yards to the UMD37, 1ST DOWN MINN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
65.4%
Shannon Brooks run for 2 yds to the Mary 35Similar
Q2 5:17
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+6
66.5%
Conor Rhoda pass complete to Nate Wozniak for 6 yds to the Mary 29Similar
Q2 5:17
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+3
65.4%
Shannon Brooks run for 3 yds to the Mary 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
66.6%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the Mary 23Similar
Q2 5:17
2ND & 7
OPP 23
0
66.6%
Conor Rhoda pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:17
3RD & 7
OPP 23
0
65.4%
Conor Rhoda pass incomplete to Rodney SmithSimilar
Q2 0:58
4TH & 7
OPP 23
+41
66.7%
Emmit Carpenter 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 9FG
9 plays · 32 yds · 0:5637% → 50%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
62.6%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to D.J. MooreSimilar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
63.0%
Jake Funk run for 2 yds to the Mary 37Similar
Q2 0:12
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+13
61.2%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Taivon Jacobs for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
50
+17
59.2%
Ty Johnson run for 17 yds to the Minn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+51
49.6%
Henry Darmstadter 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 10MISSED FG
10 plays · 39 yds · 4:3457% → 54%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+19
57.0%
Conor Rhoda pass complete to Eric Carter for 19 yds to the Mary 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
59.8%
Rodney Smith run for no gain to the Mary 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+8
59.4%
Conor Rhoda pass complete to Phillip Howard for 8 yds to the Mary 36Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+1
59.6%
Rodney Smith run for 1 yd to the Mary 35Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+4
58.3%
Shannon Brooks run for 4 yds to the Mary 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
61.0%
Conor Rhoda pass incomplete to Tyler JohnsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+7
60.9%
Shannon Brooks run for 7 yds to the Mary 24Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 24
0
59.6%
Shannon Brooks run for no gain to the Mary 24Similar
Q3 10:26
4TH & 3
OPP 24
+42
53.6%
Emmit Carpenter 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0050% → 48%
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
49.8%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Taivon Jacobs for 1 yd to the Mary 26Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
50.0%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete, broken up by Winston DeLattiboudereSimilar
Q3 10:26
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
51.1%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to Taivon JacobsSimilar
Q3 10:26
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
52.3%
Wade Lees punt for 33 yds, downed at the Minn 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 12TD
8 plays · 59 yds · 4:1954% → 70%
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
53.5%
Shannon Brooks run for 3 yds to the Minn 44Similar
Q3 9:38
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+17
53.8%
Conor Rhoda pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 17 yds to the Mary 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
55.2%
Shannon Brooks run for no gain to the Mary 39 Shannon Brooks fumbled, forced by Jermaine Carter Jr., recovered by Minn Shannon BrooksSimilar
Q3 9:38
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
55.0%
Conor Rhoda pass incomplete to Phillip HowardSimilar
Q3 9:38
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+25
53.6%
Conor Rhoda pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 25 yds to the Mary 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
56.8%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Mary 12Similar
Q3 9:38
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+5
56.8%
Rodney Smith run for 5 yds to the Mary 7Similar
Q3 5:19
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+7
70.0%
Conor Rhoda pass complete to Brandon Lingen for 7 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0037% → 35%
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
63.2%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 22 yds to the Mary 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
59.6%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 46Similar
Q3 5:19
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+5
61.2%
Ty Johnson run for 5 yds to the Minn 49Similar
Q3 5:19
3RD & 6
OPP 49
-5
59.7%
Bortenschlager pass complete to Jacobs, T. for 17 yards to the MINN32 (Huff, Jacob), PENALTY UMD illegal formation 5 yards to the UMD46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:19
3RD & 11
OWN 46
-2
62.6%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to DJ Turner for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 44Similar
Q3 5:19
4TH & 13
OWN 44
0
64.8%
Wade Lees punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Antonio Shenault at the Minn 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0065% → 62%
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
65.1%
Rodney Smith run for a loss of 5 yards to the Minn 19 Rodney Smith fumbled, forced by Antoine Brooks, recovered by Minn Garrison WrightSimilar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 15
OWN 19
0
64.6%
Conor Rhoda pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:50
3RD & 15
OWN 19
+4
63.0%
Rodney Smith run for 4 yds to the Minn 23Similar
Q3 2:50
4TH & 11
OWN 23
-5
62.0%
MINNESOTA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Minn 18Similar
Q3 2:50
4TH & 16
OWN 18
+8
62.0%
Ryan Santoso punt for 55 yds , D.J. Moore returns for 8 yds to the Mary 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 15TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 4:5840% → 74%
Q3 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
59.6%
Ty Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 34Similar
Q3 1:09
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+24
60.6%
D.J. Moore run for 24 yds to the Minn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
56.1%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 6 yds to the Minn 36Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+4
54.8%
Ty Johnson run for 4 yds to the Minn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+11
53.9%
Ty Johnson run for 11 yds to the Minn 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
53.4%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 3 yds to the Minn 18Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+1
53.4%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 1 yd to the Minn 17Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+11
55.3%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D.J. Moore for 11 yds to the Minn 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
53.4%
Ty Johnson run for 3 yds to the Minn 3Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
53.4%
Max Bortenschlager run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 4Similar
Q4 11:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
26.5%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Jake Funk for 4 yds for a TD, (Henry Darmstadter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0034% → 31%
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
34.2%
Shannon Brooks run for 2 yds to the Minn 27Similar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
34.5%
Conor Rhoda pass incomplete to Phillip HowardSimilar
Q4 11:11
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
32.3%
Conor Rhoda pass incomplete to Tyler JohnsonSimilar
Q4 11:11
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+15
30.9%
Ryan Santoso punt for 46 yds , D.J. Moore returns for 15 yds to the Mary 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:0676% → 76%
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
24.1%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Taivon Jacobs for 5 yds to the Mary 47Similar
Q4 10:06
2ND & 5
OWN 47
0
23.9%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for no gain to the Mary 47Similar
Q4 10:06
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+8
24.3%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Taivon Jacobs for 8 yds to the Minn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
23.2%
Ty Johnson run for 2 yds to the Minn 43Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+2
20.7%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 2 yds to the Minn 41Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 6
OPP 41
0
21.2%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to D.J. MooreSimilar
Q4 8:00
4TH & 6
OPP 41
0
23.8%
Wade Lees punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 18TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:0927% → 69%
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
27.4%
Rodney Smith run for 6 yds to the Minn 26Similar
Q4 7:03
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+6
28.2%
Conor Rhoda pass complete to Phillip Howard for 6 yds to the Minn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+21
28.3%
Conor Rhoda run for 6 yds to the Mary 38 for a 1ST down MARYLAND Penalty, personal foul (Josh Woods) to the Mary 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+27
33.1%
Conor Rhoda pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 27 yds to the Mary 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
36.2%
Rodney Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 21Similar
Q4 7:03
2ND & 11
OPP 21
-15
35.9%
Rhoda, Conor pass complete to Howard, Phillip for 12 yards to the UMD9 (Woods, J.), PENALTY MINN pass interference (Still, Rashad) 15 yards to the UMD36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:03
2ND & 26
OPP 36
+35
30.6%
Conor Rhoda pass complete to Eric Carter for 35 yds to the Mary 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
68.7%
Shannon Brooks run for 1 yd for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 19TD
10 plays · 74 yds · 2:4447% → 95%
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
53.4%
Taivon Jacobs run for 9 yds to the Mary 35Similar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+3
50.3%
Ty Johnson run for 3 yds to the Mary 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
50.5%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D.J. Moore for 11 yds to the Mary 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
47.7%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 6 yds to the Minn 45Similar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 4
OPP 45
0
47.2%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for no gain to the Minn 45Similar
Q4 1:24
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+6
42.8%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D.J. Moore for 6 yds to the Minn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
41.5%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D.J. Moore for 5 yds to the Minn 34Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+34
4.9%
Ty Johnson run for 34 yds for a TD, (Henry Darmstadter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 20INT
4 plays · 13 yds · 0:0013% → 14%
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
13.3%
Conor Rhoda pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+13
13.1%
Conor Rhoda pass complete to Phillip Howard for 13 yds to the Minn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
13.9%
Conor Rhoda pass intercepted JC Jackson return for no gain to the Minn 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 21END OF GAME
5 plays · -12 yds · 0:1495% → 95%
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-5
4.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Minn 31Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 15
OPP 31
-4
4.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Minn 35Similar
Q4 0:27
3RD & 19
OPP 35
-3
4.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Minn 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:54
Shannon Brooks run for 1 yd for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)
+38.1
TD · Q4 1:10
Ty Johnson run for 34 yds for a TD, (Henry Darmstadter KICK)
-36.6
TD · Q4 11:11
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Jake Funk for 4 yds for a TD, (Henry Darmstadter KICK)
-26.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com