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Win probability · MINN
modelMINN aheadMD aheadconfidence bandkey playMINN scoreMD score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:27 · TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Minn 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 5:17: Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D.J. Moore for 27 yds for a TD, (Henry Darmstadter KICK) — MD win probability +12.2 pts (now 41%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:19: Conor Rhoda pass complete to Brandon Lingen for 7 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK) — MINN win probability +13.3 pts (now 70%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
- TD · Q4 11:11: Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Jake Funk for 4 yds for a TD, (Henry Darmstadter KICK) — MD win probability +26.9 pts (now 74%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
- TD · Q4 3:54: Shannon Brooks run for 1 yd for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK) — MINN win probability +38.1 pts (now 69%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
- TD · Q4 1:10: Ty Johnson run for 34 yds for a TD, (Henry Darmstadter KICK) — MD win probability +36.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MINN made the numbers' call on 5 of 6MD made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
- Q1 15:00MD 4th & 6 at MINN 6, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call18.2%31% to convertField goal18.2%−<0.191% to makePunt17.7%−0.5average punt
- Q1 8:05MINN 4th & 5 at MINN 6, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 79.3% before the snapGo for it79.3%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call79.4%average punt
- Q1 3:56MD 4th & 10 at MINN 30, tiedClose callWent for it · 21.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call21.3%−0.129% to convertField goal21.5%56% to makePunt21.2%−0.3average punt
- Q2 13:18MD 4th & 10 at MD 20, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 23.0% before the snapGo for it22.5%−0.427% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.9%average punt
- Q2 0:58MINN 4th & 7 at MD 23, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.8% before the snapGo for it59.8%−1.136% to convertField goalTheir call60.9%70% to makePunt54.3%−6.6average punt
- Q3 15:00MINN 4th & 1 at MD 35, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call60.5%71% to convertField goal56.6%−3.945% to makePunt56.1%−4.5average punt
- Q3 10:26MINN 4th & 3 at MD 24, down 7Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 55.2% before the snapGo for it55.2%52% to convertField goalTheir call54.0%−1.368% to makePunt44.0%−11.2average punt
- Q3 10:26MD 4th & 9 at MD 26, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.4% before the snapGo for it45.8%−2.330% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call48.0%average punt
- Q3 5:19MD 4th & 13 at MD 44, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 33.9% before the snapGo for it32.2%−3.320% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call35.5%average punt
- Q3 2:50MINN 4th & 16 at MINN 18, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 63.1% before the snapGo for it60.0%−4.614% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call64.6%average punt
- Q4 11:11MINN 4th & 8 at MINN 27, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.1% before the snapGo for it30.4%−1.933% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.3%average punt
- Q4 8:00MD 4th & 6 at MINN 41, up 7Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 76.1% before the snapGo for it76.6%40% to convertField goal74.4%−2.232% to makePuntTheir call75.1%−1.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MINN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MD made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 2:44MD Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call24.8%97% to makeGo for two24.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:18MINN Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call75.6%97% to makeGo for two75.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:17MD Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call35.6%97% to makeGo for two35.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:19MINN Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call64.1%97% to makeGo for two63.9%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 11:11MD Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call63.3%97% to makeGo for two63.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:54MINN Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call51.7%97% to makeGo for two50.3%−1.345% to convert
- Q4 1:10MD Touchdown, up 6 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call84.8%−0.997% to makeGo for two85.7%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMDDrive 1DOWNS16 plays · 64 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+13
79.8%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 13 yds to the Minn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 21
+18
79.8%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D.J. Moore for 18 yds to the Minn 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
79.8%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Taivon Jacobs for 1 yd to the Minn 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0078% → 77%
Q1 8:05
4TH & 5
OWN 6
+12
77.4%
Ryan Santoso punt for 54 yds , D.J. Moore returns for 12 yds to the Minn 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 3TD10 plays · 48 yds · 3:3123% → 28%
Q1 6:15
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+13
76.5%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D.J. Moore for 13 yds to the Minn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 3
OPP 23
-15
76.3%
Bortenschlager pass complete to Jacobs, T. for 12 yards to the MINN11 (Winfield, A), PENALTY UMD pass interference (Veii, J.) 15 yards to the MINN38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:56
4TH & 10
OPP 30
+22
76.7%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to DJ Turner for 22 yds to the Minn 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
71.6%
Max Bortenschlager run for 7 yds for a TD, (Henry Darmstadter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 4TD10 plays · 62 yds · 4:2673% → 78%
MDDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q2 13:18
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-1
74.6%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D.J. Moore for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 6INT5 plays · 38 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q2 11:43
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+34
76.3%
Conor Rhoda pass complete to Phillip Howard for 19 yds to the MINNESOTA 34 for a 1ST down MARYLAND Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Mary 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:43
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+3
76.7%
Conor Rhoda pass intercepted Josh Woods return for 3 yds to the Mary 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 7TD12 plays · 92 yds · 4:3326% → 41%
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+7
73.8%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Jacquille Veii for 7 yds to the Mary 15Similar
Q2 9:50
3RD & 6
OWN 23
+9
73.6%
Bortenschlager pass incomplete to Moore, D., PENALTY MINN pass interference (Shenault, A) 9 yards to the UMD32, 1ST DOWN UMD, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
71.4%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to Josh Woods, broken up by Winston DeLattiboudereSimilar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+5
71.4%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Jacquille Veii for 5 yds to the Minn 38Similar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
59.4%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D.J. Moore for 27 yds for a TD, (Henry Darmstadter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 8FG11 plays · 42 yds · 4:1963% → 67%
MDDrive 9FG9 plays · 32 yds · 0:5637% → 50%
Q2 0:12
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+13
61.2%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Taivon Jacobs for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 10MISSED FG10 plays · 39 yds · 4:3457% → 54%
MDDrive 11PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0050% → 48%
MINNDrive 12TD8 plays · 59 yds · 4:1954% → 70%
Q3 9:38
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+17
53.8%
Conor Rhoda pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 17 yds to the Mary 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
55.2%
Shannon Brooks run for no gain to the Mary 39 Shannon Brooks fumbled, forced by Jermaine Carter Jr., recovered by Minn Shannon BrooksSimilar
Q3 9:38
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+25
53.6%
Conor Rhoda pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 25 yds to the Mary 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:19
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+7
70.0%
Conor Rhoda pass complete to Brandon Lingen for 7 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 13PUNT7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0037% → 35%
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
63.2%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 22 yds to the Mary 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:19
3RD & 6
OPP 49
-5
59.7%
Bortenschlager pass complete to Jacobs, T. for 17 yards to the MINN32 (Huff, Jacob), PENALTY UMD illegal formation 5 yards to the UMD46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:19
3RD & 11
OWN 46
-2
62.6%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to DJ Turner for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 44Similar
Q3 5:19
4TH & 13
OWN 44
0
64.8%
Wade Lees punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Antonio Shenault at the Minn 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 14PUNT5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0065% → 62%
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
65.1%
Rodney Smith run for a loss of 5 yards to the Minn 19 Rodney Smith fumbled, forced by Antoine Brooks, recovered by Minn Garrison WrightSimilar
Q3 2:50
4TH & 16
OWN 18
+8
62.0%
Ryan Santoso punt for 55 yds , D.J. Moore returns for 8 yds to the Mary 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 15TD11 plays · 65 yds · 4:5840% → 74%
MINNDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0034% → 31%
Q4 11:11
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+15
30.9%
Ryan Santoso punt for 46 yds , D.J. Moore returns for 15 yds to the Mary 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 17PUNT8 plays · 17 yds · 2:0676% → 76%
MINNDrive 18TD8 plays · 80 yds · 3:0927% → 69%
Q4 7:03
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+6
28.2%
Conor Rhoda pass complete to Phillip Howard for 6 yds to the Minn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+21
28.3%
Conor Rhoda run for 6 yds to the Mary 38 for a 1ST down MARYLAND Penalty, personal foul (Josh Woods) to the Mary 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+27
33.1%
Conor Rhoda pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 27 yds to the Mary 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:03
2ND & 11
OPP 21
-15
35.9%
Rhoda, Conor pass complete to Howard, Phillip for 12 yards to the UMD9 (Woods, J.), PENALTY MINN pass interference (Still, Rashad) 15 yards to the UMD36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:03
2ND & 26
OPP 36
+35
30.6%
Conor Rhoda pass complete to Eric Carter for 35 yds to the Mary 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 19TD10 plays · 74 yds · 2:4447% → 95%
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
50.5%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D.J. Moore for 11 yds to the Mary 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:24
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+6
42.8%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D.J. Moore for 6 yds to the Minn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
41.5%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D.J. Moore for 5 yds to the Minn 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 20INT4 plays · 13 yds · 0:0013% → 14%
MDDrive 21END OF GAME5 plays · -12 yds · 0:1495% → 95%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:54
Shannon Brooks run for 1 yd for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)
+38.1
TD · Q4 1:10
Ty Johnson run for 34 yds for a TD, (Henry Darmstadter KICK)
-36.6
TD · Q4 11:11
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Jake Funk for 4 yds for a TD, (Henry Darmstadter KICK)
-26.9