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IOWA

Iowa 10 at Michigan State 17

MSU
2017 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2017 · Spartan Stadium
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadIOWA aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreIOWA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:34 · Jake Hartbarger punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Joshua Jackson at the Iowa 9
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+24.5+12.30−12.3−24.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 20Home team on offense+1.0Pregame prior+11.2Garbage-time factor+0.4Score differential+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Blowout margin−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:11: Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 6 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +6.2 pts (now 72%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:15: Akrum Wadley run for 9 yds for a TD, (Miguel Recinos KICK) — IOWA win probability +5.4 pts (now 36%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 9:43: Brian Lewerke pass complete to Laress Nelson for 23 yds to the MchSt 44 for a 1ST down — MSU win probability +6.3 pts (now 78%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 2:43: LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the MchSt 44 — MSU win probability +6.2 pts (now 84%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:50: LJ Scott run for 1 yd to the MchSt 49 — MSU win probability +5.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9IOWA made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 11:42IOWA 4th & 13 at IOWA 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:34MSU 4th & 10 at MSU 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.4%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:51IOWA 4th & 13 at IOWA 6, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%−0.4
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:19MSU 4th & 1 at IOWA 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    63.6%−0.5
    72% to make
    Punt
    62.2%−1.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:15MSU 4th & 2 at IOWA 45, up 7
    Close callPunted · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    65.4%−1.5
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.2%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:04IOWA 4th & 9 at IOWA 10, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.1%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:58MSU 4th & 8 at IOWA 40, up 7
    Close callPunted · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.3%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    68.9%−0.4
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    68.9%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:08IOWA 4th & 15 at IOWA 3, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%−3.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:43MSU 4th & 4 at IOWA 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.9%−0.4
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.2%
    75% to make
    Punt
    65.9%−5.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:13IOWA 4th & 9 at IOWA 41, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 14:57IOWA 4th & 8 at MSU 23, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.7%−0.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    26.3%
    70% to make
    Punt
    20.5%−5.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:43MSU 4th & 1 at IOWA 30, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    75.8%−2.4
    56% to make
    Punt
    74.5%−3.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:04MSU 4th & 11 at IOWA 30, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.7%−1.0
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.7%
    56% to make
    Punt
    82.3%−1.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:08IOWA 4th & 2 at MSU 25, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.2%−1.2
    66% to make
    Punt
    6.7%−6.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:01MSU 4th & 8 at IOWA 40, up 7
    Close callPunted · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.6%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    84.3%−1.3
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    84.9%−0.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:02IOWA 4th & 5 at IOWA 12, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.2%−1.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:02MSU 4th & 28 at MSU 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.5%−1.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2IOWA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 11:50MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:11MSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:15IOWA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSUDrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:1062% → 64%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+31
62.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 31 yds to the Iowa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
62.4%
Gerald Holmes run for 2 yds to the Iowa 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+6
62.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 6 yds to the Iowa 36Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+3
62.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 3 yds to the Iowa 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
62.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 8 yds to the Iowa 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+3
62.4%
Gerald Holmes run for 3 yds to the Iowa 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
63.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 22 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
63.2%
Nathan Stanley pass incomplete to Nick EasleySimilar
Q1 11:42
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+11
63.3%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to T.J. Hockenson for 11 yds to the Iowa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
63.1%
Akrum Wadley run for no gain to the Iowa 48Similar
Q1 11:42
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
63.2%
Nathan Stanley pass incomplete, broken up by Andrew DowellSimilar
Q1 11:42
3RD & 10
OWN 48
-3
63.3%
Nathan Stanley sacked by Joe Bachie for a loss of 3 yards to the Iowa 45Similar
Q1 11:42
4TH & 13
OWN 45
+8
63.5%
Colten Rastetter punt for 37 yds , Laress Nelson returns for 8 yds to the MchSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
64.3%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Trishton Jackson for a 1ST down IOWA Penalty, roughing passer (15 Yards) to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
64.6%
Madre London run for 3 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 7
OWN 44
0
64.7%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Laress Nelson, broken up by Nathan BazataSimilar
Q1 9:34
3RD & 7
OWN 44
-3
64.4%
Brian Lewerke sacked by Anthony Nelson for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 41Similar
Q1 9:34
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
63.9%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Joshua Jackson at the Iowa 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-2
64.7%
Akrum Wadley run for a loss of 2 yards to the Iowa 7Similar
Q1 7:51
2ND & 12
OWN 7
0
64.7%
Nathan Stanley pass incomplete to Akrum WadleySimilar
Q1 7:51
3RD & 12
OWN 7
-1
64.9%
Akrum Wadley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 6Similar
Q1 7:51
4TH & 13
OWN 6
+11
65.1%
Colten Rastetter punt for 36 yds , Laress Nelson returns for 11 yds to the Iowa 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5TD
11 plays · 31 yds · 4:0866% → 72%
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
66.0%
LJ Scott run for 9 yds to the Iowa 22Similar
Q1 6:19
2ND & 1
OPP 22
0
66.0%
LJ Scott run for no gain to the Iowa 22Similar
Q1 6:19
3RD & 1
OPP 22
0
65.7%
Brian Lewerke run for no gain to the Iowa 22Similar
Q1 6:19
4TH & 1
OPP 22
+1
65.4%
Brian Lewerke run for 1 yd to the Iowa 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
66.0%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
Q1 6:19
2ND & 10
OPP 21
-9
66.0%
LJ Scott run for 1 yd to the Iowa 20 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Iowa 30Similar
Q1 6:19
2ND & 19
OPP 30
+19
65.6%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 8 yds to the Iowa 22 for a 1ST down IOWA Penalty, personal foul (11 Yards) to the Iowa 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
66.0%
Brian Lewerke run for 6 yds to the Iowa 5Similar
Q1 6:19
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+3
66.0%
Lewerke, Brian pass incomplete to Davis, Felton, PENALTY IOWA pass interference 3 yards to the IOWA2, 1ST DOWN MSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
66.0%
Matt Sokol run for a loss of 2 yards to the Iowa 6 Matt Sokol fumbled, forced by Josey Jewell, recovered by MchSt Matt SokolSimilar
Q1 2:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
72.2%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 6 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 6TD
10 plays · 72 yds · 4:5130% → 36%
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
70.1%
Akrum Wadley run for 3 yds to the Iowa 31Similar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+10
70.0%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Matt VandeBerg for 10 yds to the Iowa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
69.9%
Nathan Stanley pass incomplete to Matt VandeBergSimilar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+8
70.0%
Nathan Stanley run for 8 yds to the Iowa 49Similar
Q1 2:06
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+10
69.5%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Noah Fant for 10 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
70.6%
Akrum Wadley run for 1 yd to the MchSt 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+1
70.6%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 1 yd to the MchSt 39Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
69.8%
Akrum Wadley run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 9Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
64.4%
Akrum Wadley run for 9 yds for a TD, (Miguel Recinos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
67.6%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
67.6%
Brian Lewerke run for 4 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
Q2 12:15
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
67.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 4 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
68.2%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Sokol for 6 yds to the MchSt 42Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+5
68.9%
LJ Scott run for 5 yds to the MchSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
68.9%
Brian Lewerke run for 4 yds to the Iowa 49Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+3
68.9%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the Iowa 46Similar
Q2 12:15
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+1
68.4%
LJ Scott run for 1 yd to the Iowa 45Similar
Q2 12:15
4TH & 2
OPP 45
0
67.7%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Joshua Jackson at the Iowa 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0031% → 29%
Q2 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
69.4%
Nathan Stanley pass incomplete to Akrum WadleySimilar
Q2 7:04
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+1
69.6%
Akrum Wadley run for 1 yd to the Iowa 10Similar
Q2 7:04
3RD & 9
OWN 10
0
70.1%
Nathan Stanley pass incomplete to Noah FantSimilar
Q2 7:04
4TH & 9
OWN 10
0
70.6%
Colten Rastetter punt for 32 yds , Darrell Stewart Jr. returns for no gain to the Iowa 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0072% → 70%
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
72.1%
Gerald Holmes run for 2 yds to the Iowa 40Similar
Q2 5:58
2ND & 8
OPP 40
0
72.0%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q2 5:58
3RD & 8
OPP 40
0
71.3%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr., broken up by Joshua JacksonSimilar
Q2 5:58
4TH & 8
OPP 40
0
70.1%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Joshua Jackson at the Iowa 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0030% → 29%
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-2
70.0%
Akrum Wadley run for a loss of 2 yards to the Iowa 6Similar
Q2 5:08
2ND & 12
OWN 6
0
70.2%
Nathan Stanley pass incomplete to Akrum Wadley, broken up by Khari WillisSimilar
Q2 5:08
3RD & 12
OWN 6
-3
70.9%
IOWA Penalty, false start (-3 Yards) to the Iowa 3Similar
Q2 5:08
3RD & 15
OWN 3
0
70.9%
Akrum Wadley run for no gain to the Iowa 3Similar
Q2 5:08
4TH & 15
OWN 3
0
71.4%
Colten Rastetter punt for 33 yds, downed at the Iowa 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11FG
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:5073% → 75%
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
73.0%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-1
72.9%
Brian Lewerke sacked by Nathan Bazata and Josey Jewell for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 37Similar
Q2 3:33
3RD & 11
OPP 37
+11
71.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 11 yds to the Iowa 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
73.1%
Darrell Stewart Jr. run for 4 yds to the Iowa 22Similar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+2
73.1%
Madre London run for 2 yds to the Iowa 20Similar
Q2 3:33
3RD & 4
OPP 20
0
72.4%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
Q2 0:43
4TH & 4
OPP 20
+38
75.2%
Matt Coghlin 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 1 yds · 0:2427% → 23%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-7
72.9%
Nathan Stanley sacked by Khari Willis for a loss of 7 yards to the Iowa 33Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 17
OWN 33
+8
75.9%
Akrum Wadley run for 8 yds to the Iowa 41Similar
Q2 0:13
3RD & 9
OWN 41
0
76.5%
Nathan Stanley pass incomplete to Nick EasleySimilar
Q2 0:13
4TH & 9
OWN 41
0
77.4%
Colten Rastetter punt for 49 yds, downed at the MchSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 13FUMBLE
13 plays · 62 yds · 0:0026% → 28%
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
73.9%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Akrum Wadley for 5 yds to the Iowa 36Similar
Q3 14:57
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+5
73.0%
Akrum Wadley run for 5 yds to the Iowa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
73.1%
Nathan Stanley run for 6 yds to the Iowa 47Similar
Q3 14:57
2ND & 4
OWN 47
-4
72.5%
Akrum Wadley run for a loss of 4 yards to the Iowa 43Similar
Q3 14:57
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+32
73.8%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 32 yds to the MchSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
70.8%
Akrum Wadley run for 2 yds to the MchSt 23Similar
Q3 14:57
2ND & 8
OPP 23
0
70.8%
Nathan Stanley pass incomplete to T.J. HockensonSimilar
Q3 14:57
3RD & 8
OPP 23
0
72.4%
Nathan Stanley pass incomplete to Noah Fant, broken up by Matt MorrisseySimilar
Q3 14:57
4TH & 8
OPP 23
+15
73.8%
Colten Rastetter pass complete to A.J. Epenesa for 15 yds to the MchSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
70.8%
Nathan Stanley pass incomplete to Matt VandeBergSimilar
Q3 14:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
70.8%
Akrum Wadley run for 3 yds to the MchSt 5Similar
Q3 14:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
71.9%
Nathan Stanley run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 7 Nathan Stanley fumbled, recovered by MchSt Joe BachieSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14DOWNS
11 plays · 63 yds · 0:0078% → 79%
Q3 9:43
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+23
78.2%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Laress Nelson for 23 yds to the MchSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:43
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+17
79.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 17 yds to the Iowa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+13
78.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 13 yds to the MchSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
78.4%
Gerald Holmes run for 1 yd to the MchSt 21Similar
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
79.8%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
80.1%
Hunter Rison run for 9 yds to the Iowa 30Similar
Q3 9:43
2ND & 1
OPP 30
0
80.4%
Madre London run for no gain to the Iowa 30Similar
Q3 9:43
3RD & 1
OPP 30
0
79.5%
Madre London run for no gain to the Iowa 30Similar
Q3 9:43
4TH & 1
OPP 30
-5
78.5%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Iowa 35Similar
Q3 9:43
4TH & 6
OPP 35
+5
78.2%
IOWA Penalty, delay of game (5 Yards) to the Iowa 30Similar
Q3 9:43
4TH & 1
OPP 30
0
78.5%
LJ Scott run for no gain to the Iowa 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 15FUMBLE
5 plays · 40 yds · 0:0021% → 23%
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
79.5%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Akrum Wadley for 6 yds to the Iowa 36Similar
Q3 5:14
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+6
78.6%
Akrum Wadley run for 6 yds to the Iowa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
78.7%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the Iowa 40 Team fumbled, recovered by Iowa Nathan StanleySimilar
Q3 5:14
2ND & 12
OWN 40
+22
79.3%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to T.J. Hockenson for 22 yds to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
77.3%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Brandon Smith for 3 yds Brandon Smith fumbled, forced by Josiah Scott, recovered by MchSt Chris Frey , return for 11 yds to the MchSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 16MISSED FG
9 plays · 29 yds · 3:3984% → 84%
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
83.5%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
Q3 2:43
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+10
83.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cam Chambers for 10 yds to the Iowa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
83.8%
Brian Lewerke run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 47Similar
Q3 2:43
2ND & 11
OPP 47
+18
83.6%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Sokol for 18 yds to the Iowa 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
84.0%
Brian Lewerke run for 4 yds to the Iowa 25Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+5
86.2%
Brian Lewerke run for 5 yds to the Iowa 20Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 20
-10
85.4%
Lewerke, Brian pass incomplete to Davis, Felton, PENALTY MSU holding 10 yards to the IOWA30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 30
0
85.2%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Matt SokolSimilar
Q4 14:04
4TH & 11
OPP 30
+48
83.6%
Matt Coghlin 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 17FG
10 plays · 45 yds · 4:5616% → 21%
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+16
83.7%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Matt VandeBerg for 16 yds to the Iowa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
82.2%
Akrum Wadley run for 2 yds to the Iowa 48Similar
Q4 14:04
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+6
82.2%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Akrum Wadley for 6 yds to the MchSt 46Similar
Q4 14:04
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+13
81.9%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to T.J. Hockenson for 13 yds to the MchSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
80.3%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 35Similar
Q4 14:04
2ND & 12
OPP 35
+5
80.7%
Stanley, Nate rush for no gain to the MSU35 (Alexander, D.), PENALTY MSU offside defense 5 yards to the MSU30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:04
2ND & 7
OPP 30
-5
79.9%
Kelly-Martin,I. rush for 1 yard to the MSU29 (Alexander, D.), PENALTY IOWA delay of game 5 yards to the MSU35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:04
2ND & 12
OPP 35
+10
80.7%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Ivory Kelly-Martin for 10 yds to the MchSt 25Similar
Q4 14:04
3RD & 2
OPP 25
0
81.3%
Nathan Stanley pass incomplete to Nick EasleySimilar
Q4 9:08
4TH & 2
OPP 25
+43
78.6%
Miguel Recinos 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 33 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q4 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
85.8%
Madre London run for no gain to the MchSt 27Similar
Q4 9:01
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+8
85.5%
Brian Lewerke run for 8 yds to the MchSt 35Similar
Q4 9:01
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+11
85.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Trishton Jackson for 11 yds to the MchSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
87.6%
Madre London run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 45Similar
Q4 9:01
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+13
86.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 13 yds to the Iowa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
88.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to LJ Scott for 2 yds to the Iowa 40Similar
Q4 9:01
2ND & 8
OPP 40
0
87.9%
LJ Scott run for no gain to the Iowa 40Similar
Q4 9:01
3RD & 8
OPP 40
0
87.2%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
Q4 9:01
4TH & 8
OPP 40
0
85.8%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Joshua Jackson at the Iowa 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:3713% → 12%
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+5
86.9%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Matt VandeBerg for 5 yds to the Iowa 12Similar
Q4 4:39
2ND & 5
OWN 12
0
86.7%
Nathan Stanley pass incomplete to Noah FantSimilar
Q4 4:02
3RD & 5
OWN 12
0
87.2%
Nathan Stanley pass incomplete to Nick EasleySimilar
Q4 4:02
4TH & 5
OWN 12
0
87.6%
Colten Rastetter punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Laress Nelson at the MchSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 20PUNT
15 plays · -5 yds · 1:4893% → 95%
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
93.0%
LJ Scott run for 1 yd to the MchSt 49Similar
Q4 3:44
2ND & 9
OWN 49
-3
93.4%
Darrell Stewart Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 46Similar
Q4 3:38
3RD & 12
OWN 46
+15
93.6%
Brian Lewerke run for 15 yds to the Iowa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
94.7%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the Iowa 37Similar
Q4 2:52
2ND & 8
OPP 37
-5
95.1%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Iowa 42Similar
Q4 2:52
2ND & 13
OPP 42
+4
94.9%
LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the Iowa 38Similar
Q4 2:02
3RD & 9
OPP 38
-4
95.8%
LJ Scott run for a loss of 4 yards to the Iowa 42Similar
Q4 2:02
4TH & 13
OPP 42
-5
94.6%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Iowa 47Similar
Q4 2:02
4TH & 18
OPP 47
-5
94.8%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 48Similar
Q4 2:02
4TH & 23
OWN 48
-5
94.8%
Hartbarger, J. punt 52 yards to the IOWA0, Jackson, Joshua return to the IOWA7 (Sokol, Matt), PENALTY MSU illegal formation 5 yards to the MSU43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:02
4TH & 28
OWN 43
0
94.7%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Iowa 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 21END OF GAME
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:007% → 6%
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
93.3%
Nathan Stanley pass incomplete to Noah FantSimilar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 16
-6
93.6%
Nathan Stanley sacked by Demetrius Cooper for a loss of 6 yards to the Iowa 7 Nathan Stanley fumbled, recovered by Iowa Nathan Stanley , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 0:45
3RD & 19
OWN 7
+11
94.2%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Noah Fant for 11 yds to the Iowa 18Similar
Q4 0:45
4TH & 8
OWN 18
-5
94.0%
IOWA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Iowa 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q3 9:43
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Laress Nelson for 23 yds to the MchSt 44 for a 1ST down
+6.3
TD · Q1 2:11
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 6 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)
+6.2
KEY PLAY · Q3 2:43
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the MchSt 44
+6.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com