Try the model
MICH

Michigan 28 at Purdue 10

PUR
2017 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2017 · Ross-Ade Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · PUR
modelPUR aheadMICH aheadconfidence bandkey playPUR scoreMICH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:05 · Joe Schopper punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Donovan Peoples-Jones at the Mich 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 128Pregame prior−11.0Home team on offense−5.8Score differential−1.4Garbage-time factor−4.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:45: Brycen Hopkins 10 Yd pass from Elijah Sindelar (J.D. Dellinger Kick) — PUR win probability +8.0 pts (now 31%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 9:32: Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete to Terry Wright — PUR win probability +5.8 pts (now 46%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:42: Chris Evans 10 Yd Run (Quinn Nordin Kick) — MICH win probability +20.7 pts (now 77%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:36: Ty Isaac 1 Yd Run (Quinn Nordin Kick) — MICH win probability +13.9 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:46: Chris Evans 49 Yd Run (Quinn Nordin Kick) — MICH win probability +6.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PUR made the numbers' call on 9 of 12MICH made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 13:14PUR 4th & 9 at MICH 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.8%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    21.8%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    21.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:26MICH 4th & 9 at MICH 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.0%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:05PUR 4th & 25 at PUR 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.0%−0.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:41MICH 4th & 3 at MICH 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:34PUR 4th & 1 at PUR 24, tied
    Close callPunted · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.7%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:46MICH 4th & 16 at MICH 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.9%−0.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.5%
    average punt
  7. Q1 3:10PUR 4th & 7 at MICH 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    27.0%−0.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    27.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:04PUR 4th & 7 at MICH 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.6%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.0%
    87% to make
    Punt
    30.0%−5.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:41MICH 4th & 4 at MICH 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.7%−0.6
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.3%
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:42PUR 4th & 25 at PUR 19, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.6%−3.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.8%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:50MICH 4th & 15 at MICH 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.0%−1.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.5%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:15PUR 4th & 6 at MICH 49, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:48MICH 4th & 5 at MICH 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.6%−0.8
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.4%
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:34PUR 4th & 9 at PUR 21, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.7%−2.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.4%
    average punt
  15. Q3 8:02PUR 4th & 7 at PUR 40, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.8%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.5%
    average punt
  16. Q3 1:05PUR 4th & 13 at PUR 22, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.5%−4.0
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:47PUR 4th & 5 at PUR 25, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.3%
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:54PUR 4th & 18 at PUR 28, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.4
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:39MICH 4th & 3 at MICH 24, up 18
    Close callPunted · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.4%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:20MICH 4th & 3 at PUR 35, up 18
    Close callWent for it · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.7%−0.1
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    98.8%
    45% to make
    Punt
    98.5%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PUR made the numbers' call on 1 of 1MICH made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q2 11:34MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:45PUR Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 2:42MICH Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 10:36MICH Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.2%−0.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:46MICH Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PURDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 36 yds · 1:3716% → 17%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
16.2%
Jackson Anthrop pass complete to David Blough for 24 yds to the Prdue 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
16.4%
David Blough run for 11 yds to the Mich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
16.7%
David Blough pass complete to Brian Lankford-Johnson for 1 yd to the Mich 39Similar
Q1 13:29
2ND & 9
OPP 39
0
17.0%
David Blough pass incomplete to Gregory PhillipsSimilar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 9
OPP 39
0
17.0%
David Blough pass incomplete to Richie WorshipSimilar
Q1 13:14
4TH & 9
OPP 39
0
17.0%
Joe Schopper punt for 31 yds, downed at the Mich 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 11 yds · 1:4183% → 82%
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+10
17.1%
Karan Higdon run for 10 yds to the Mich 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
17.2%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 6 yds to the Mich 24Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 4
OWN 24
-5
17.4%
Wilton Speight sacked by Danny Ezechukwu for a loss of 5 yards to the Mich 19Similar
Q1 11:34
3RD & 9
OWN 19
0
17.9%
Wilton Speight pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:26
4TH & 9
OWN 19
0
18.0%
Brad Robbins punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jackson Anthrop at the Prdue 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · -15 yds · 1:1218% → 18%
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
18.1%
D.J. Knox run for 2 yds to the Prdue 45Similar
Q1 10:52
2ND & 8
OWN 45
0
18.4%
David Blough pass incomplete to Gregory PhillipsSimilar
Q1 10:52
3RD & 8
OWN 45
-5
18.2%
PURDUE Penalty, False Start (Grant Hermanns) to the Prdue 40Similar
Q1 10:47
3RD & 13
OWN 40
-15
18.1%
PURDUE Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Prdue 25Similar
Q1 10:37
3RD & 28
OWN 25
+3
18.1%
D.J. Knox run for 3 yds to the Prdue 28Similar
Q1 10:05
4TH & 25
OWN 28
+37
18.3%
Joe Schopper punt for 37 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1982% → 81%
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
18.5%
Karan Higdon run for 3 yds to the Mich 37Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+4
18.6%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Grant Perry for 4 yds to the Mich 41Similar
Q1 8:49
3RD & 3
OWN 41
0
18.8%
Wilton Speight pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:41
4TH & 3
OWN 41
0
19.2%
Brad Robbins punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jackson Anthrop at the Prdue 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0719% → 20%
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-5
19.2%
PURDUE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Prdue 10Similar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 15
OWN 10
+4
19.3%
Brian Lankford-Johnson run for 4 yds to the Prdue 14Similar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 11
OWN 14
+7
19.6%
David Blough pass complete to Terry Wright for 7 yds to the Prdue 21Similar
Q1 7:15
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+3
19.7%
David Blough pass complete to Brycen Hopkins for 3 yds to the Prdue 24Similar
Q1 6:34
4TH & 1
OWN 24
0
20.0%
Joe Schopper punt for 53 yds, downed at the Mich 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:4480% → 78%
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
20.3%
Ty Isaac run for 2 yds to the Mich 25Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+3
20.5%
Ty Isaac run for 3 yds to the Mich 28Similar
Q1 5:06
3RD & 5
OWN 28
-11
21.2%
Wilton Speight sacked by Markus Bailey for a loss of 11 yards to the Mich 17Similar
Q1 4:46
4TH & 16
OWN 17
+30
21.8%
Brad Robbins punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jackson Anthrop at the PURDUE 38 MICHIGAN Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the Mich 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2522% → 22%
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-4
22.2%
David Blough sacked by Devin Bush for a loss of 4 yards to the Prdue 49Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 14
OWN 49
+7
22.1%
David Blough run for 7 yds to the Mich 44Similar
Q1 3:17
3RD & 7
OPP 44
0
22.9%
David Blough pass incomplete to Richie WorshipSimilar
Q1 3:10
4TH & 7
OPP 44
0
22.4%
Joe Schopper punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Donovan Peoples-Jones at the Mich 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8TD
14 plays · 84 yds · 6:2678% → 80%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
22.2%
Karan Higdon run for 1 yd to the Mich 17Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+14
22.2%
John O'Korn pass complete to Nate Schoenle for 14 yds to the Mich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
22.4%
Karan Higdon run for 6 yds to the Mich 37Similar
Q1 1:14
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+10
22.2%
Karan Higdon run for 10 yds to the Mich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
22.3%
John O'Korn pass complete to Henry Poggi for 11 yds to the Prdue 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
22.4%
Chris Evans run for a loss of 1 yard to the Prdue 43Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 11
OPP 43
+13
22.6%
John O'Korn pass complete to Sean McKeon for 13 yds to the Prdue 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
22.4%
Chris Evans run for 4 yds to the Prdue 26Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 6
OPP 26
-3
22.9%
Karan Higdon run for a loss of 3 yards to the Prdue 29Similar
Q2 13:03
3RD & 9
OPP 29
+11
23.8%
John O'Korn pass complete to Sean McKeon for 11 yds to the Prdue 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
23.5%
Ty Isaac run for 6 yds to the Prdue 12Similar
Q2 12:13
2ND & 4
OPP 12
0
23.7%
Ty Isaac run for no gain to the Prdue 12Similar
Q2 11:34
3RD & 4
OPP 12
+12
19.9%
Zach Gentry 12 Yd pass from John O'Korn (Quinn Nordin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 9TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:3521% → 31%
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
21.3%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Terry Wright for 16 yds to the Prdue 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
22.4%
Elijah Sindelar run for 13 yds to the Mich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
23.2%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete to Terry WrightSimilar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+36
23.2%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Terry Wright for 36 yds to the Mich 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
31.1%
Brycen Hopkins 10 Yd pass from Elijah Sindelar (J.D. Dellinger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 10INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:2273% → 72%
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
26.9%
John O'Korn run for no gain to the Mich 25Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
27.4%
Karan Higdon run for no gain to the Mich 25Similar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+7
28.4%
John O'Korn pass intercepted Navon Mosley return for 7 yds to the Mich 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 11FG
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:0733% → 33%
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
32.5%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete to Cole HerdmanSimilar
Q2 8:01
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+13
32.5%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Cole Herdman for 13 yds to the Mich 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
33.0%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete to Jackson AnthropSimilar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+2
33.1%
Brian Lankford-Johnson run for 2 yds to the Mich 12Similar
Q2 6:40
3RD & 8
OPP 12
+1
33.0%
Brian Lankford-Johnson run for 1 yd to the Mich 11Similar
Q2 6:04
4TH & 7
OPP 11
+29
33.3%
J.D. Dellinger 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1467% → 65%
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
32.6%
Karan Higdon run for 3 yds to the Mich 28Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
32.7%
Karan Higdon run for 3 yds to the Mich 31Similar
Q2 4:52
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
33.6%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Grant PerrySimilar
Q2 4:41
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+7
34.9%
Brad Robbins punt for 42 yds , Jackson Anthrop returns for 7 yds to the Prdue 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -15 yds · 0:5434% → 33%
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-15
34.1%
PURDUE Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Prdue 19Similar
Q2 4:31
1ST & 25
OWN 19
0
33.8%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete to Terry WrightSimilar
Q2 4:27
2ND & 25
OWN 19
0
33.7%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete to Jackson AnthropSimilar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 25
OWN 19
0
32.9%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Jackson Anthrop for no gain to the Prdue 19Similar
Q2 3:42
4TH & 25
OWN 19
0
32.7%
Joe Schopper punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Donovan Peoples-Jones at the Mich 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:4568% → 63%
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
32.2%
John O'Korn pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 7 yds to the Prdue 45Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 3
OPP 45
-2
31.9%
Karan Higdon run for a loss of 2 yards to the Prdue 47Similar
Q2 2:35
3RD & 5
OPP 47
-10
32.9%
John O'Korn sacked by Markus Bailey for a loss of 10 yards to the Mich 43Similar
Q2 1:50
4TH & 15
OWN 43
0
37.1%
Brad Robbins punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jackson Anthrop at the Prdue 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 30 yds · 1:2536% → 39%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
35.9%
Brian Lankford-Johnson run for 2 yds to the Prdue 23Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+24
36.2%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Anthony Mahoungou for 24 yds to the Prdue 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
39.0%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete to Terry WrightSimilar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+4
38.5%
Richie Worship run for 4 yds to the Mich 49Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 6
OPP 49
0
39.1%
Elijah Sindelar run for no gain to the Mich 49 Elijah Sindelar fumbled, recovered by Prdue Elijah SindelarSimilar
Q2 0:15
4TH & 6
OPP 49
0
38.5%
Joe Schopper punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mich 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16END OF HALF
3 plays · 34 yds · 0:1060% → 61%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+10
39.6%
Chris Evans run for 10 yds to the Mich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
38.4%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Donovan Peoples-JonesSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+24
38.8%
John O'Korn pass complete to Chris Evans for 24 yds to the Prdue 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 3:0062% → 59%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+15
37.9%
John O'Korn pass complete to Nate Schoenle for 15 yds to the Mich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
37.9%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Kekoa CrawfordSimilar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-2
38.5%
John O'Korn sacked by T.J. McCollum for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 28Similar
Q3 13:19
3RD & 12
OWN 28
+9
40.2%
PURDUE Penalty, Defensive Holding (Josh Okonye) to the Mich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
38.0%
John O'Korn run for no gain to the Mich 37Similar
Q3 12:35
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
38.9%
John O'Korn pass complete to Sean McKeon for 5 yds to the Mich 42Similar
Q3 11:55
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
38.1%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Grant PerrySimilar
Q3 11:48
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
40.6%
Brad Robbins punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jackson Anthrop at the Prdue 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:0142% → 40%
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
41.7%
Jackson Anthrop run for a loss of 2 yards to the Prdue 18Similar
Q3 11:07
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+3
41.7%
Brian Lankford-Johnson run for 3 yds to the Prdue 21Similar
Q3 10:41
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
41.0%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete to Jackson AnthropSimilar
Q3 10:34
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
40.3%
Joe Schopper punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Donovan Peoples-Jones at the Mich 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 19FUMBLE
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:4860% → 60%
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
39.8%
Chris Evans run for 3 yds to the Mich 41Similar
Q3 9:37
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+22
39.7%
John O'Korn pass complete to Karan Higdon for 22 yds Karan Higdon fumbled, recovered by Prdue Danny EzechukwuSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:3046% → 45%
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
45.5%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete to Terry WrightSimilar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-11
45.1%
Elijah Sindelar sacked by Chase Winovich for a loss of 11 yards to the Prdue 26Similar
Q3 8:45
3RD & 21
OWN 26
+14
43.2%
Richie Worship run for 14 yds to the Prdue 40Similar
Q3 8:02
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
44.6%
Joe Schopper punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Donovan Peoples-Jones at the Mich 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 21TD
12 plays · 86 yds · 5:1356% → 77%
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-7
44.1%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-7 Yards) to the Mich 7Similar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 17
OWN 7
+11
45.2%
John O'Korn pass complete to Zach Gentry for 11 yds to the Mich 18Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 6
OWN 18
0
45.3%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Zach GentrySimilar
Q3 6:32
3RD & 6
OWN 18
+12
47.1%
John O'Korn pass complete to Grant Perry for 12 yds to the Mich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
45.3%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Ian BuntingSimilar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+3
46.0%
Chris Evans run for 3 yds to the Mich 33Similar
Q3 5:10
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+30
47.1%
John O'Korn pass complete to Sean McKeon for 30 yds to the Prdue 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
42.1%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Nick Eubanks for a 1ST down PURDUE Penalty, Personal Foul (Jacob Thieneman) to the Prdue 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
41.6%
John O'Korn pass complete to Chris Evans for 4 yds to the Prdue 18Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+5
42.1%
Chris Evans run for 5 yds to the Prdue 13Similar
Q3 3:35
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+3
43.8%
Chris Evans run for 3 yds to the Prdue 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
23.1%
Chris Evans 10 Yd Run (Quinn Nordin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · -3 yds · 1:3029% → 29%
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
29.4%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Navon Mosley for 4 yds to the Prdue 29Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-12
30.1%
Elijah Sindelar sacked by TEAM for a loss of 12 yards to the Prdue 17 Elijah Sindelar fumbled, recovered by Prdue Elijah Sindelar , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 1:24
3RD & 18
OWN 17
0
29.5%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete to Cole HerdmanSimilar
Q3 1:17
4TH & 18
OWN 17
+5
28.9%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Running Into Kicker (5 Yards) to the Prdue 22Similar
Q3 1:05
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
29.0%
Joe Schopper punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Donovan Peoples-Jones at the Mich 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 23TD
12 plays · 65 yds · 5:1973% → 90%
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+23
27.0%
John O'Korn pass complete to Grant Perry for 23 yds to the Prdue 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
24.8%
Chris Evans run for 3 yds to the Prdue 39Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 7
OPP 39
-1
24.5%
Chris Evans run for a loss of 1 yard to the Prdue 40Similar
Q4 14:11
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+8
25.1%
John O'Korn pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 8 yds to the Prdue 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
24.2%
Ty Isaac run for 3 yds to the Prdue 29Similar
Q4 13:05
2ND & 7
OPP 29
-5
24.1%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the Prdue 34Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 12
OPP 34
-5
24.0%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Prdue 39Similar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 17
OPP 39
+23
25.3%
John O'Korn pass complete to Sean McKeon for 23 yds to the Prdue 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-15
23.6%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Illegal Block (-15 Yards) to the Prdue 31Similar
Q4 11:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+28
23.8%
John O'Korn pass complete to Zach Gentry for 25 yds to the Prdue 6 for a 1ST down PURDUE Penalty, Roughing Passer (Ja'Whaun Bentley) to the Prdue 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
23.7%
Ty Isaac run for 2 yds to the Prdue 1Similar
Q4 10:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
9.8%
Ty Isaac 1 Yd Run (Quinn Nordin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:3312% → 10%
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
11.7%
David Blough pass incomplete to Anthony MahoungouSimilar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
11.4%
David Blough pass complete to Terry Wright for 5 yds to the Prdue 25Similar
Q4 9:47
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
11.4%
David Blough pass incomplete to Terry WrightSimilar
Q4 9:47
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
10.4%
Joe Schopper punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Donovan Peoples-Jones at the Mich 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 25TD
6 plays · 76 yds · 2:4890% → 98%
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
10.4%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the Mich 19Similar
Q4 9:25
1ST & 15
OWN 19
+4
10.5%
Chris Evans run for 4 yds to the Mich 23Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 11
OWN 23
+12
10.1%
John O'Korn run for 12 yds to the Mich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
9.4%
Ty Isaac run for no gain to the Prdue 35 for a 1ST down PURDUE Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
50
+1
8.2%
Ty Isaac run for 1 yd to the Prdue 49Similar
Q4 6:46
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+49
2.1%
Chris Evans 49 Yd Run (Quinn Nordin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 1:414% → 2%
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
3.5%
David Blough sacked by Chase Winovich for a loss of 5 yards to the Prdue 20Similar
Q4 6:10
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+16
2.9%
David Blough pass complete to Brycen Hopkins for 16 yds to the Prdue 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
3.0%
David Blough pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:44
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
2.4%
David Blough pass incomplete to Corey HolmesSimilar
Q4 5:35
3RD & 10
OWN 36
-8
2.3%
David Blough sacked by Chase Winovich for a loss of 8 yards to the Prdue 28Similar
Q4 4:54
4TH & 18
OWN 28
0
2.1%
Joe Schopper punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Donovan Peoples-Jones at the Mich 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:0698% → 99%
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
1.6%
Chris Evans run for 2 yds to the Mich 19Similar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+3
1.6%
Chris Evans run for 3 yds to the Mich 22Similar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 5
OWN 22
+2
1.4%
Ty Isaac run for 2 yds to the Mich 24Similar
Q4 2:39
4TH & 3
OWN 24
+1
1.3%
Brad Robbins punt for 41 yds , Jackson Anthrop returns for 1 yd to the Prdue 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 28FUMBLE
1 play · 6 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
1.9%
Terry Wright run for 6 yds to the Prdue 42 Terry Wright fumbled, forced by Michael Wroblewski, recovered by Mich Noah FurbushSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 29END OF GAME
4 plays · 11 yds · 2:0599% → 99%
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
1.2%
Kareem Walker run for 2 yds to the Prdue 40Similar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+3
0.9%
Kareem Walker run for 3 yds to the Prdue 37Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+2
0.9%
Kareem Walker run for 2 yds to the Prdue 35Similar
Q4 0:20
4TH & 3
OPP 35
+4
1.0%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Maurice Ways for 4 yds to the Prdue 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:42
Chris Evans 10 Yd Run (Quinn Nordin Kick)
-20.7
TD · Q4 10:36
Ty Isaac 1 Yd Run (Quinn Nordin Kick)
-13.9
TD · Q2 9:45
Brycen Hopkins 10 Yd pass from Elijah Sindelar (J.D. Dellinger Kick)
+8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com