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UCF

UCF 38 at Maryland 10

MD
2017 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2017 · SECU Stadium
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Win probability · MD
modelMD aheadUCF aheadconfidence bandkey playMD scoreUCF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:03 · Mac Loudermilk punt for 38 yds , D.J. Moore returns for 11 yds to the UCF 33
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 24Home team on offense+0.0Score differential−0.5Pregame prior+9.5Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:49: Taj McGowan run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK) — UCF win probability +10.5 pts (now 59%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:17: McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Akins for 6 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK) — UCF win probability +18.2 pts (now 84%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:04: Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D.J. Moore for 20 yds for a TD, (Henry Darmstadter KICK) — MD win probability +8.9 pts (now 29%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 12:34: Matthew Wright 20 yd FG GOOD — UCF win probability +9.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:29: Adrian Killins Jr. 15 Yd Run (Matthew Wright Kick) — UCF win probability +6.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MD made the numbers' call on 9 of 11UCF made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 14:55UCF 4th & 6 at MD 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    36.6%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    36.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:50MD 4th & 3 at MD 30, tied
    Close callPunted · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:03UCF 4th & 10 at UCF 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:58MD 4th & 9 at UCF 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.5%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.8%
    80% to make
    Punt
    61.1%−1.7
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:53UCF 4th & 8 at UCF 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.1%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.5%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:12MD 4th & 1 at UCF 45, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    62.7%−1.5
    25% to make
    Punt
    63.2%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:25UCF 4th & 2 at MD 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    36.1%−0.7
    49% to make
    Punt
    35.8%−1.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:38MD 4th & 27 at MD 18, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%−1.9
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 11:59UCF 4th & 10 at MD 48, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 10:30UCF 4th & 13 at UCF 34, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.5%−1.5
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.0%
    average punt
  11. Q2 6:48MD 4th & 7 at UCF 17, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.1%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.4%
    80% to make
    Punt
    50.8%−5.6
    average punt
  12. Q2 3:45MD 4th & 10 at MD 39, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.5%
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:22UCF 4th & 7 at UCF 21, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.1%−2.3
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 14:56MD 4th & 14 at MD 25, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.2%−2.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.3%
    average punt
  15. Q3 10:09MD 4th & 4 at MD 36, down 18
    Close callPunted · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q3 7:26UCF 4th & 4 at UCF 33, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.4%−0.7
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:34UCF 4th & 2 at MD 2, up 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 79.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.8%−2.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    69.7%−10.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 12:34MD 4th & 8 at MD 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.3%−0.9
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.2%
    average punt
  19. Q4 7:25MD 4th & 1 at MD 30, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.0%−0.5
    average punt
  20. Q4 5:03MD 4th & 9 at MD 35, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MD made the numbers' call on 1 of 1UCF made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q2 13:42UCF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:49UCF Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:17UCF Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:04MD Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:29UCF Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 5:11UCF Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCFDrive 1PUNT
12 plays · 34 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
60.8%
Jawon Hamilton run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 22Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 11
OWN 22
+6
60.8%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 6 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+12
60.8%
McKenzie Milton run for 12 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-4
60.8%
Jawon Hamilton run for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 36Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 14
OWN 36
+9
60.8%
Dredrick Snelson run for 9 yds to the UCF 45Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+8
60.8%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Taj McGowan for 8 yds to the Mary 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
60.8%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 1 yd to the Mary 46Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+3
60.8%
Taj McGowan run for 3 yds to the Mary 43Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 6
OPP 43
0
60.8%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Jordan Akins, broken up by Darnell Savage Jr.Similar
Q1 14:55
4TH & 6
OPP 43
0
60.8%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 31 yds, fair catch by D.J. Moore at the Mary 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
61.0%
Kasim Hill pass complete to Jacquille Veii for 8 yds to the Mary 20Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 2
OWN 20
+3
61.0%
Ty Johnson run for 3 yds to the Mary 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
61.0%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 7 yds to the Mary 30Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+1
61.2%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 1 yd to the Mary 31Similar
Q1 10:50
3RD & 2
OWN 31
-1
60.9%
Ty Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 30Similar
Q1 10:50
4TH & 3
OWN 0
0
60.7%
UCF Penalty, personal foul off-setting ( Yards) to the Mary 30Similar
Q1 10:50
4TH & 3
OWN 30
0
60.8%
Wade Lees punt for 64 yds, downed at the UCF 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
61.0%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Adrian Killins Jr. for 3 yds to the UCF 9Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 7
OWN 9
+3
61.1%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 3 yds to the UCF 12Similar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 4
OWN 12
-6
61.1%
MILTON, M. pass complete to AKINS, Jordan for 12 yards to the UCF24, out-of-bounds, PENALTY UCF pass interference (DAVIS, Gabriel) 6 yards to the UCF6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 10
OWN 6
0
61.2%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Dredrick Snelson, broken up by Antwaine RichardsonSimilar
Q1 8:03
4TH & 10
OWN 6
+11
61.4%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 38 yds , D.J. Moore returns for 11 yds to the UCF 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 4FG
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:1762% → 63%
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
62.2%
Kasim Hill pass complete to D.J. Moore for 15 yds to the UCF 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-5
62.2%
Hill, K. pass incomplete to Moore, D., PENALTY UMD ineligible downfield on pass (Gray, D.) 5 yards to the UCF23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 15
OPP 23
+1
62.1%
D.J. Moore run for 1 yd to the UCF 22Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 14
OPP 22
+1
61.9%
Kasim Hill run for 1 yd to the UCF 21Similar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 13
OPP 21
+4
61.4%
Kasim Hill run for 4 yds to the UCF 17Similar
Q1 3:58
4TH & 9
OPP 17
+34
62.5%
Henry Darmstadter 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0038% → 37%
Q1 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
62.4%
Taj McGowan run for 2 yds to the UCF 25Similar
Q1 3:53
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
62.4%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Tre'Quan Smith, broken up by JC JacksonSimilar
Q1 3:53
3RD & 8
OWN 25
0
62.7%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
Q1 3:53
4TH & 8
OWN 25
0
63.1%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 48 yds, fair catch by D.J. Moore at the Mary 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 6DOWNS
5 plays · 28 yds · 0:0062% → 63%
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+19
62.3%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D.J. Moore for 19 yds to the Mary 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
63.2%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 6 yds to the UCF 48Similar
Q1 3:12
2ND & 4
OPP 48
-2
63.4%
Max Bortenschlager run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:12
3RD & 6
50
+5
63.0%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Taivon Jacobs for 5 yds to the UCF 45Similar
Q1 3:12
4TH & 1
OPP 45
0
62.7%
Max Bortenschlager run for no gain to the UCF 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 7TD
9 plays · 55 yds · 2:4339% → 44%
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+14
61.2%
McKenzie Milton run for 14 yds to the Mary 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
60.9%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
60.9%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:25
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+8
61.3%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 8 yds to the Mary 33Similar
Q1 1:25
4TH & 2
OPP 33
+18
61.7%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 18 yds to the Mary 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
60.3%
Tre'Quan Smith run for 4 yds to the Mary 11Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+3
60.3%
Taj McGowan run for 3 yds to the Mary 8Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+7
60.9%
Taj McGowan run for 7 yds to the Mary 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
56.0%
Taj McGowan run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -17 yds · 0:0058% → 57%
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
58.1%
Ty Johnson run for 1 yd to the Mary 36Similar
Q2 13:38
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+5
58.2%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Taivon Jacobs for 5 yds to the Mary 41Similar
Q2 13:38
3RD & 4
OWN 41
-23
58.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 23 yards to the Mary 18Similar
Q2 13:38
4TH & 27
OWN 18
0
56.7%
Wade Lees punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Mike Hughes at the UCF 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 0:0044% → 43%
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
55.7%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Adrian Killins Jr. for 5 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q2 11:59
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+5
55.7%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Otis Anderson for 5 yds to the Mary 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
55.4%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete, broken up by Shane CockerilleSimilar
Q2 11:59
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
55.5%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:59
3RD & 10
OPP 48
0
55.9%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Jordan Akins, broken up by Tino EllisSimilar
Q2 11:59
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
57.2%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mary 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 10INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q2 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
57.6%
Max Bortenschlager pass intercepted Kyle Gibson return for no gain to the UCF 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0044% → 42%
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-3
56.0%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 34Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 13
OWN 34
0
57.0%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Gabriel DavisSimilar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 13
OWN 34
0
57.4%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Taj McGowanSimilar
Q2 10:30
4TH & 13
OWN 34
+29
57.9%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 47 yds , D.J. Moore returns for 29 yds to the Mary 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 12MISSED FG
9 plays · 50 yds · 3:4259% → 57%
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-15
59.2%
MARYLAND Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the Mary 33Similar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+14
57.5%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 14 yds to the Mary 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
59.2%
Ty Johnson run for 5 yds to the UCF 48Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+13
59.6%
Ty Johnson run for 13 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
60.4%
UCF Penalty, personal foul (Tony Guerad) to the UCF 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+9
60.5%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 9 yds to the UCF 11Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 1
OPP 11
0
60.5%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for no gain to the UCF 11Similar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 1
OPP 11
-6
59.4%
Ty Johnson run for a loss of 6 yards to the UCF 17Similar
Q2 6:48
4TH & 7
OPP 17
+34
56.6%
Henry Darmstadter 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 13TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:5945% → 59%
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
54.8%
McKenzie Milton run for 3 yds to the UCF 23Similar
Q2 6:48
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+23
54.4%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Franks for 23 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
52.7%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Michael Colubiale for 7 yds to the Mary 47Similar
Q2 6:48
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+10
52.3%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 10 yds to the Mary 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+32
52.3%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Michael Colubiale for 32 yds to the Mary 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
52.0%
Taj McGowan run for 2 yds to the Mary 3Similar
Q2 3:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
41.5%
Taj McGowan run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-3
42.2%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D.J. Moore for a loss of 3 yards to the Mary 19Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 13
OWN 19
+5
42.1%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D.J. Moore for 5 yds to the Mary 24Similar
Q2 3:45
3RD & 8
OWN 24
+15
41.3%
Bortenschlager pass incomplete to Veii, J., PENALTY UCF pass interference (JOHNSON, Chris) 15 yards to the UMD39, 1ST DOWN UMD, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
43.4%
Max Bortenschlager pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
43.2%
Ty Johnson run for no gain to the Mary 39Similar
Q2 3:45
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
42.4%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to D.J. MooreSimilar
Q2 3:45
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
41.5%
Wade Lees punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Mike Hughes at the UCF 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 3 yds · 1:3159% → 62%
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
41.4%
Taj McGowan run for 1 yd to the UCF 19Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+4
41.5%
McKenzie Milton run for 4 yds to the UCF 23Similar
Q2 0:43
3RD & 5
OWN 23
-2
38.4%
Tre'Quan Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 21Similar
Q2 0:35
4TH & 7
OPP 0
0
35.9%
LOUDERMILK, Mac punt 48 yards to the UMD31, Moore, D. return to the UCF49, PENALTY UMD offside off-setting, PENALTY UCF holding off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:22
4TH & 7
OWN 21
0
38.3%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 30 yds, fair catch by D.J. Moore at the Mary 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 16END OF HALF
3 plays · -11 yds · 0:0041% → 40%
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
41.2%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to Taivon JacobsSimilar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-10
40.8%
Bortenschlager rush for 9 yards to the UCF42 (GRANT, Richie), PENALTY UMD holding (Prince, D.) 10 yards to the UMD39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 20
OWN 39
-1
39.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0038% → 36%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
38.3%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to Taivon JacobsSimilar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-3
38.0%
Max Bortenschlager sacked by Tony Guerad for a loss of 3 yards to the Mary 26Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 13
OWN 26
-1
36.6%
Max Bortenschlager sacked by Jamiyus Pittman for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 25Similar
Q3 14:56
4TH & 14
OWN 25
0
36.1%
Wade Lees punt for 57 yds, downed at the UCF 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 18TD
9 plays · 82 yds · 3:0563% → 84%
Q3 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
37.0%
Taj McGowan run for 6 yds to the UCF 24Similar
Q3 13:22
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+1
36.6%
Otis Anderson run for 1 yd to the UCF 25Similar
Q3 13:22
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+55
37.5%
McKenzie Milton run for 55 yds to the Mary 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
35.1%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 21Similar
Q3 13:22
2ND & 11
OPP 21
+14
35.3%
MILTON, M. pass incomplete to SNELSON, D., PENALTY UMD pass interference (Ellis, T.) 14 yards to the UMD7, 1ST DOWN UCF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
34.9%
Cordarrian Richardson run for 4 yds to the Mary 3Similar
Q3 13:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
34.9%
Cordarrian Richardson run for 2 yds to the Mary 1 for a 1ST down MARYLAND Penalty, face mask (0 yards) (Shane Cockerille) to the Mary 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
34.6%
UCF Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Mary 6Similar
Q3 10:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
16.4%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Akins for 6 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 0:0020% → 21%
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
20.1%
Ty Johnson run for 2 yds to the Mary 6Similar
Q3 10:09
2ND & 8
OWN 6
+11
19.9%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Jacquille Veii for 11 yds to the Mary 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+13
20.5%
Ty Johnson run for 13 yds to the Mary 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
20.8%
Max Bortenschlager run for 5 yds to the Mary 35Similar
Q3 10:09
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+1
21.4%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 1 yd to the Mary 36Similar
Q3 10:09
3RD & 4
OWN 36
0
21.2%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to Taivon JacobsSimilar
Q3 10:09
4TH & 4
OWN 36
0
20.8%
Wade Lees punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Mike Hughes at the UCF 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0085% → 84%
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
15.3%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 1 yd to the UCF 28Similar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+5
15.4%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 5 yds to the UCF 33Similar
Q3 7:26
3RD & 4
OWN 33
0
15.5%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Adrian Killins Jr., broken up by Shane CockerilleSimilar
Q3 7:26
4TH & 4
OWN 33
0
15.8%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 49 yds, downed at the Mary 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 21TD
10 plays · 82 yds · 3:5017% → 29%
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-7
16.8%
Ty Johnson run for a loss of 7 yards to the Mary 11Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 17
OWN 11
+15
16.6%
Bortenschlager pass incomplete to Moore, D., PENALTY UCF pass interference (MOORE, Brandon) 15 yards to the UMD26, 1ST DOWN UMD, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
17.0%
Bortenschlager pass incomplete to Moore, D., PENALTY UCF holding (MOORE, Brandon) 10 yards to the UMD36, 1ST DOWN UMD, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
17.5%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 1 yd to the Mary 37Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+3
17.1%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Lorenzo Harrison III for 3 yds to the Mary 40Similar
Q3 5:54
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+18
17.7%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Ty Johnson for 18 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+17
19.0%
Ty Johnson run for 2 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the UCF 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
19.8%
Max Bortenschlager run for 5 yds to the UCF 20Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 5
OPP 20
0
19.8%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to Jake FunkSimilar
Q3 2:04
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+20
28.8%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D.J. Moore for 20 yds for a TD, (Henry Darmstadter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 22FG
11 plays · 73 yds · 4:2574% → 90%
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
26.0%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Akins for 22 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
23.8%
Taj McGowan run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 1:59
2ND & 7
50
+13
23.7%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 13 yds to the Mary 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
23.6%
Taj McGowan run for 2 yds to the Mary 35Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+29
20.0%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Akins for 29 yds to the Mary 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
19.4%
Tre'Quan Smith run for 1 yd to the Mary 5Similar
Q4 14:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
19.4%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 3 yds to the Mary 2Similar
Q4 14:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
19.8%
Taj McGowan run for no gain to the Mary 2Similar
Q4 12:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
10.2%
Matthew Wright 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
14.1%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to D.J. MooreSimilar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-10
13.9%
Max Bortenschlager sacked by A.J. Wooten and Chequan Burkett for a loss of 10 yards to the Mary 15Similar
Q4 12:34
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+12
13.7%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 12 yds to the Mary 27Similar
Q4 12:34
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
13.8%
Wade Lees punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Mike Hughes at the UCF 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 24TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 3:3892% → 99%
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
8.5%
Cordarrian Richardson run for no gain to the UCF 35Similar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+6
8.6%
McKenzie Milton run for 6 yds to the UCF 41Similar
Q4 11:07
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+5
8.3%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 5 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+44
7.9%
Otis Anderson run for 44 yds to the Mary 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
7.5%
UCF Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Mary 15Similar
Q4 11:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
0
7.7%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for no gain to the Mary 15Similar
Q4 7:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
+15
1.4%
Adrian Killins Jr. 15 Yd Run (Matthew Wright Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 25INT TD
9 plays · 34 yds · 2:142% → 0%
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
2.1%
Max Bortenschlager sacked by Jamiyus Pittman for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 20Similar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 11
OWN 20
-5
2.1%
MARYLAND Penalty, false start (Terrance Davis) to the Mary 15Similar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 16
OWN 15
0
2.0%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to DJ TurnerSimilar
Q4 7:25
3RD & 16
OWN 15
+15
2.0%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D.J. Moore for 15 yds to the Mary 30Similar
Q4 7:25
4TH & 1
OWN 30
+6
2.1%
Max Bortenschlager run for 6 yds to the Mary 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
2.2%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Jahrvis Davenport for 9 yds to the Mary 45Similar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+10
2.4%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Jahrvis Davenport for 10 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+57
0.2%
Max Bortenschlager pass intercepted for a TD Mike Hughes return for 57 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 26PUNT
10 plays · 10 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
0.2%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for a loss of 3 yards to the Mary 22Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 13
OWN 22
-8
0.1%
Max Bortenschlager sacked by Josh Odigie for a loss of 8 yards to the Mary 14Similar
Q4 5:03
3RD & 21
OWN 14
+10
0.1%
Bortenschlager pass incomplete to Jacobs, T., PENALTY UCF holding (LUYANDA, G.) 10 yards to the UMD24, 1ST DOWN UMD, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
0.2%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Jacquille Veii for 3 yds to the Mary 27Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+7
0.1%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D.J. Moore for 7 yds to the Mary 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
0.2%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to D.J. MooreSimilar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+5
0.1%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D.J. Moore for 5 yds to the Mary 39Similar
Q4 5:03
3RD & 5
OWN 39
-5
0.1%
Max Bortenschlager run for a loss of 5 yards to the Mary 35 Max Bortenschlager fumbled, recovered by Mary Max BortenschlagerSimilar
Q4 5:03
4TH & 9
OWN 35
0
0.1%
Wade Lees punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Mike Hughes at the UCF 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 27END OF GAME
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+9
0.1%
Cordarrian Richardson run for 9 yds to the UCF 23Similar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 1
OWN 23
-5
0.1%
UCF Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 18Similar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+8
0.1%
Greg McCrae run for 8 yds to the UCF 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
0.1%
UCF Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 21Similar
Q4 1:37
1ST & 15
OWN 21
+2
0.1%
Greg McCrae run for 2 yds to the UCF 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:17
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Akins for 6 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)
-18.2
TD · Q2 3:49
Taj McGowan run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)
-10.5
FG · Q4 12:34
Matthew Wright 20 yd FG GOOD
-9.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com