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PSU

Penn State 21 at Iowa 19

IOWA
2017 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2017 · Kinnick Stadium
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Win probability · IOWA
modelIOWA aheadPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playIOWA scorePSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGSAFETYTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:22 · Blake Gillikin punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Joshua Jackson at the Iowa 9
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 13Pregame prior−34.3Home team on offense−0.4Score differential−0.4Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:37: Nathan Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 21 yds for a TD, (Miguel Recinos KICK) — IOWA win probability +18.8 pts (now 41%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:16: Saquon Barkley run for 8 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK) — PSU win probability +12.6 pts (now 84%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:02: Nathan Stanley pass complete to Akrum Wadley for 70 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — IOWA win probability +21.6 pts (now 39%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:42: Akrum Wadley run for 35 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — IOWA win probability +50.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:00: Juwan Johnson 7 Yd pass from Trace McSorley (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — PSU win probability +76.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IOWA made the numbers' call on 8 of 8PSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 12
  1. Q1 9:22PSU 4th & 7 at IOWA 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    76.3%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    76.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:32IOWA 4th & 9 at IOWA 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:36PSU 4th & 13 at IOWA 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.2%−0.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:07IOWA 4th & 5 at IOWA 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:01PSU 4th & 1 at IOWA 1, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 72.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.9%−0.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    70.0%−2.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:03IOWA 4th & 12 at IOWA 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%−0.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:38PSU 4th & 5 at IOWA 23, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.2%
    70% to make
    Punt
    68.0%−3.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:59IOWA 4th & 12 at IOWA 21, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%−1.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:07PSU 4th & 12 at IOWA 40, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.4%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    70.4%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    70.5%
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:53PSU 4th & 3 at IOWA 32, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.9%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    72.1%−0.9
    51% to make
    Punt
    71.1%−1.8
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:52IOWA 4th & 13 at IOWA 41, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.7%−1.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:07IOWA 4th & 10 at IOWA 25, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%−2.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:42PSU 4th & 3 at IOWA 3, down 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 57.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.7%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.8%−1.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    47.7%−11.0
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:42IOWA 4th & 4 at IOWA 36, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.8%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:30IOWA 4th & 8 at PSU 18, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.8%−1.9
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.7%
    79% to make
    Punt
    10.2%−10.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:32PSU 4th & 4 at PSU 26, up 8
    Close callPunted · 82.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.8%−0.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:30PSU 4th & 1 at IOWA 43, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    54.5%−12.2
    28% to make
    Punt
    56.0%−10.7
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:42PSU 4th & 8 at IOWA 13, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.3%−2.4
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.7%
    85% to make
    Punt
    45.0%−25.7
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:50PSU 4th & 2 at PSU 40, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.2%−8.9
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:00PSU 4th & 7 at IOWA 7, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.2%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    13.8%−26.3
    91% to make
    Punt
    19.9%−20.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IOWA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3PSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 0:37IOWA Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 5:16PSU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 10:02IOWA Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    40.7%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    40.8%
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 1:42IOWA Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    79.2%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    79.8%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 0:00PSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    77.2%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    77.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PSUDrive 1PUNT
13 plays · 36 yds · 5:2886% → 83%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
14.1%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 6 yds to the PnSt 31Similar
Q1 14:29
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
14.3%
Saquon Barkley run for 5 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
14.5%
Saquon Barkley run for 5 yds to the PnSt 41 PENN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the PnSt 31Similar
Q1 13:27
1ST & 15
OWN 31
-3
14.8%
Trace McSorley sacked by Anthony Nelson for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 28Similar
Q1 12:52
2ND & 18
OWN 28
+6
15.0%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Miles Sanders for 6 yds to the PnSt 34Similar
Q1 12:13
3RD & 12
OWN 34
+12
15.4%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 12 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
15.4%
Trace McSorley run for 12 yds to the Iowa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
15.6%
Trace McSorley run for 7 yds to the Iowa 35Similar
Q1 10:39
2ND & 3
OPP 35
-1
15.7%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 36Similar
Q1 10:05
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+2
16.1%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 2 yds to the Iowa 34Similar
Q1 9:29
4TH & 2
OPP 34
-5
16.6%
PENN ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Iowa 39Similar
Q1 9:22
4TH & 7
OPP 39
0
16.7%
Blake Gillikin punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Joshua Jackson at the Iowa 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4517% → 17%
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
16.8%
Akrum Wadley run for 1 yd to the Iowa 10Similar
Q1 8:42
2ND & 9
OWN 10
0
17.0%
Nathan Stanley pass incomplete to Matt VandeBergSimilar
Q1 8:39
3RD & 9
OWN 10
0
16.8%
Nathan Stanley pass incomplete to Noah FantSimilar
Q1 8:32
4TH & 9
OWN 10
0
16.8%
Colten Rastetter punt for 35 yds, fair catch by DeAndre Thompkins at the Iowa 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:5383% → 82%
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
16.7%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Mike GesickiSimilar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
16.8%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Saeed BlacknallSimilar
Q1 8:15
3RD & 10
OPP 45
-3
17.2%
Trace McSorley sacked by Anthony Nelson for a loss of 3 yards to the Iowa 48Similar
Q1 7:36
4TH & 13
OPP 48
0
17.7%
Blake Gillikin punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Joshua Jackson at the Iowa 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2618% → 18%
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
17.8%
Nathan Stanley pass incomplete to Matt VandeBergSimilar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+1
17.8%
Akrum Wadley run for 1 yd to the Iowa 11Similar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 9
OWN 11
+4
18.0%
Nathan Stanley run for 4 yds to the Iowa 15Similar
Q1 6:07
4TH & 5
OWN 15
0
18.2%
Colten Rastetter punt for 52 yds, fair catch by DeAndre Thompkins at the PnSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 5FG
11 plays · 66 yds · 5:0082% → 80%
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
18.4%
Saquon Barkley run for 15 yds to the PnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
18.2%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 5 yds to the Iowa 47Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+6
18.3%
Saquon Barkley run for 6 yds to the Iowa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
18.6%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DeAndre Thompkins for 7 yds to the Iowa 34Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+3
18.5%
Andre Robinson run for 3 yds to the Iowa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
18.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 9 yds to the Iowa 22Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+12
19.0%
Saquon Barkley run for 12 yds to the Iowa 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
19.2%
Andre Robinson run for 8 yds to the Iowa 2Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
19.2%
Trace McSorley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 3Similar
Q1 1:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
19.7%
Trace McSorley run for 2 yds to the Iowa 1Similar
Q1 1:01
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+19
20.0%
Tyler Davis 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 1:5220% → 21%
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
20.4%
Akrum Wadley run for no gain to the Iowa 18Similar
Q1 0:16
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
20.7%
Nathan Stanley pass incomplete to Matt VandeBergSimilar
Q1 0:10
3RD & 10
OWN 18
+13
20.3%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Noah Fant for 13 yds to the Iowa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
21.1%
Nathan Stanley pass incomplete to Matt VandeBergSimilar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-2
21.1%
Akrum Wadley run for a loss of 2 yards to the Iowa 29Similar
Q2 14:10
3RD & 12
OWN 29
0
20.9%
Nathan Stanley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:03
4TH & 12
OWN 29
0
20.7%
Colten Rastetter punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7MISSED FG
11 plays · 37 yds · 3:2080% → 78%
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
20.2%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Saeed BlacknallSimilar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
20.5%
Saquon Barkley run for 5 yds to the PnSt 45Similar
Q2 13:19
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+13
20.6%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 13 yds to the Iowa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
20.5%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Jonathan Holland for 1 yd to the Iowa 41Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+8
20.8%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 8 yds to the Iowa 33Similar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+5
20.9%
Trace McSorley run for 5 yds to the Iowa 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
20.7%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Saquon BarkleySimilar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+5
20.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 5 yds to the Iowa 23Similar
Q2 10:42
3RD & 5
OPP 23
0
21.5%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:38
4TH & 5
OPP 23
+41
22.5%
Tyler Davis 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:2924% → 23%
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
23.7%
Akrum Wadley run for 3 yds to the Iowa 26Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 7
OWN 26
0
24.0%
Akrum Wadley run for no gain to the Iowa 26Similar
Q2 9:18
3RD & 7
OWN 26
0
23.6%
Nathan Stanley pass incomplete to Ihmir Smith-MarsetteSimilar
Q2 9:08
4TH & 7
OWN 26
-5
23.4%
IOWA Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Iowa 21Similar
Q2 8:59
4TH & 12
OWN 21
+17
23.4%
Colten Rastetter punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the IOWA 47 IOWA Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the Iowa 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:4378% → 76%
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
22.2%
Trace McSorley run for a loss of 2 yards to the Iowa 40Similar
Q2 8:19
2ND & 12
OPP 40
0
22.6%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Mike GesickiSimilar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 12
OPP 40
0
23.0%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DeAndre ThompkinsSimilar
Q2 8:07
4TH & 12
OPP 40
0
23.6%
Blake Gillikin punt for 39 yds, downed at the Iowa 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 10SF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:2024% → 23%
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
23.9%
Nathan Stanley run for 2 yds to the Iowa 3Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 8
OWN 3
0
22.5%
Shareef Miller SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 11DOWNS
8 plays · 33 yds · 1:3278% → 78%
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
22.1%
Trace McSorley run for 8 yds to the PnSt 43Similar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+18
21.4%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 18 yds to the Iowa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
21.1%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Saeed BlacknallSimilar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+7
21.1%
Saquon Barkley run for 7 yds to the Iowa 32Similar
Q2 5:58
3RD & 3
OPP 32
0
20.9%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Brandon PolkSimilar
Q2 5:53
4TH & 3
OPP 32
0
22.2%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Brandon PolkSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 3:5323% → 23%
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
23.2%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Akrum Wadley for 5 yds to the Iowa 37Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+1
23.8%
Akrum Wadley run for 1 yd to the Iowa 38Similar
Q2 4:40
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+6
23.6%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 6 yds to the Iowa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
24.4%
Akrum Wadley run for 1 yd to the Iowa 45Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 9
OWN 45
-2
24.7%
Akrum Wadley run for a loss of 2 yards to the Iowa 43Similar
Q2 2:45
3RD & 11
OWN 43
+3
23.4%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Akrum Wadley for 3 yds to the Iowa 46Similar
Q2 2:03
4TH & 8
OWN 46
-5
23.6%
IOWA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Iowa 41Similar
Q2 1:52
4TH & 13
OWN 41
0
22.5%
Colten Rastetter punt for 53 yds, downed at the PnSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 13INT
5 plays · 39 yds · 1:0276% → 78%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-2
24.5%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 4Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 12
OWN 4
+23
24.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 23 yds to the PnSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
23.3%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DeAndre Thompkins for 7 yds to the PnSt 34Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+11
22.7%
Saquon Barkley run for 11 yds to the PnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+33
21.9%
Trace McSorley pass intercepted Josey Jewell return for 33 yds to the PnSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 14TD
1 play · 21 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
40.7%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 21 yds for a TD, (Miguel Recinos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-2
35.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:4336% → 35%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
36.2%
Akrum Wadley run for a loss of 3 yards to the Iowa 22Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 13
OWN 22
-3
36.3%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Akrum Wadley for a loss of 3 yards to the Iowa 19Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+6
35.5%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Ivory Kelly-Martin for 6 yds to the Iowa 25Similar
Q3 13:07
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+4
35.3%
Colten Rastetter punt for 37 yds , DeAndre Thompkins returns for 4 yds to the PnSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 17FG
7 plays · 55 yds · 2:1366% → 70%
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
34.5%
Trace McSorley run for 15 yds to the Iowa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+25
33.7%
Saquon Barkley run for 25 yds to the Iowa 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+16
32.6%
Saquon Barkley run for 16 yds to the Iowa 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
32.9%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the Iowa 1Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
33.3%
Trace McSorley run for a loss of 2 yards to the Iowa 3Similar
Q3 10:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
35.0%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Juwan JohnsonSimilar
Q3 10:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
29.6%
Tyler Davis 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 18FUMBLE
6 plays · 52 yds · 2:0732% → 38%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
32.1%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Matt VandeBerg for 5 yds to the Iowa 28Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+9
32.9%
Akrum Wadley run for 9 yds to the Iowa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
33.9%
Akrum Wadley run for a loss of 2 yards to the Iowa 35Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+29
33.2%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 29 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
37.8%
Akrum Wadley run for 11 yds to the PnSt 25 Akrum Wadley fumbled, forced by Marcus Allen, recovered by PnSt Grant HaleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 19TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:5468% → 84%
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+44
32.2%
Saquon Barkley run for 44 yds to the Iowa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
28.4%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 4 yds to the Iowa 27Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+6
28.3%
Miles Sanders run for 6 yds to the Iowa 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
28.5%
Saquon Barkley run for 4 yds to the Iowa 17Similar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 6
OPP 17
0
28.8%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Juwan JohnsonSimilar
Q3 6:10
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+7
30.3%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 7 yds to the Iowa 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
29.1%
Saquon Barkley run for 2 yds to the Iowa 8Similar
Q3 5:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
16.5%
Saquon Barkley run for 8 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1819% → 18%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
18.5%
Nathan Stanley pass incomplete to Nick EasleySimilar
Q3 4:54
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+6
18.2%
Akrum Wadley run for 6 yds to the Iowa 36Similar
Q3 4:20
3RD & 4
OWN 36
0
19.0%
Nathan Stanley run for no gain to the Iowa 36Similar
Q3 3:42
4TH & 4
OWN 36
0
17.7%
Colten Rastetter punt for 48 yds, downed at the PnSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 21FUMBLE
8 plays · 36 yds · 3:2582% → 85%
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
17.6%
Saquon Barkley run for 7 yds to the PnSt 23Similar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 3
OWN 23
+4
17.0%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 4 yds to the PnSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
17.2%
Saquon Barkley run for 7 yds to the PnSt 34Similar
Q3 2:05
2ND & 3
OWN 42
-2
16.0%
Trace McSorley run for 8 yds to the PnSt 42 PENN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Irvin Charles) to the PnSt 32Similar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+23
16.4%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 23 yds to the Iowa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-10
15.0%
Saquon Barkley run for 5 yds to the PnSt 40 PENN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the PnSt 45Similar
Q3 0:40
1ST & 20
OWN 45
+7
15.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 7 yds to the Iowa 48Similar
Q3 0:05
2ND & 13
OPP 48
-5
15.4%
Trace McSorley sacked by A.J. Epenesa for a loss of 5 yards to the Iowa 45 Trace McSorley fumbled, recovered by Iowa Josey Jewell , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 22MISSED FG
6 plays · 37 yds · 1:3121% → 18%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
20.6%
PENN ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the PnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+20
22.0%
Akrum Wadley run for 20 yds to the PnSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-4
23.4%
Nathan Stanley sacked by Marcus Allen for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 24Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 14
OPP 24
0
21.4%
Nathan Stanley pass incomplete to T.J. HockensonSimilar
Q4 13:45
3RD & 14
OPP 24
+6
19.7%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Ivory Kelly-Martin for 6 yds to the PnSt 18Similar
Q4 13:30
4TH & 8
OPP 18
+36
18.4%
Miguel Recinos 36 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Troy ApkeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:4884% → 84%
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
15.7%
Saquon Barkley run for no gain to the PnSt 20Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+8
15.4%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 8 yds to the PnSt 28Similar
Q4 12:10
3RD & 2
OWN 28
-1
15.2%
Trace McSorley run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 26 Trace McSorley fumbled, forced by Parker Hesse, recovered by PnSt Ryan BatesSimilar
Q4 11:32
4TH & 4
OWN 26
+4
16.3%
Blake Gillikin punt for 52 yds , Joshua Jackson returns for 4 yds to the Iowa 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 24TD
3 plays · 74 yds · 1:2317% → 39%
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
17.4%
Akrum Wadley run for no gain to the Iowa 26Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+4
17.0%
Akrum Wadley run for 4 yds to the Iowa 30Similar
Q4 10:02
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+70
38.6%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Akrum Wadley for 70 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 25MISSED FG
20 plays · 75 yds · 7:0866% → 76%
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+9
34.3%
Saquon Barkley run for 9 yds to the PnSt 21Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 1
OWN 21
0
33.2%
Saquon Barkley run for no gain to the PnSt 21Similar
Q4 8:50
3RD & 1
OWN 21
-5
35.4%
PENN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 16Similar
Q4 8:26
3RD & 6
OWN 16
+10
36.6%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 10 yds to the PnSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
34.6%
Andre Robinson run for 6 yds to the PnSt 32Similar
Q4 7:31
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+16
33.1%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 16 yds to the PnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
30.7%
Saquon Barkley run for 7 yds to the Iowa 45Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+1
29.5%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the Iowa 44Similar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+1
29.7%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the Iowa 43Similar
Q4 5:30
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+4
31.9%
Saquon Barkley run for 4 yds to the Iowa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
26.6%
Saquon Barkley run for 7 yds to the Iowa 32Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+2
23.6%
Andre Robinson run for 2 yds to the Iowa 30Similar
Q4 3:35
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+15
23.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 15 yds to the Iowa 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
21.7%
Trace McSorley run for 3 yds to the Iowa 12Similar
Q4 2:52
2ND & 7
OPP 12
-1
21.3%
Trace McSorley sacked by Anthony Nelson and Cedrick Lattimore for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 13Similar
Q4 2:47
3RD & 8
OPP 13
0
23.0%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for no gain to the Iowa 13Similar
Q4 2:42
4TH & 8
OPP 13
+31
24.1%
Tyler Davis 31 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 26TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 0:4638% → 92%
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
37.7%
PENN ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Marcus Allen) to the Iowa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
37.3%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 8 yds to the Iowa 43Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+22
41.6%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Matt VandeBerg for 22 yds to the PnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
91.7%
Akrum Wadley run for 35 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 27END OF GAME
15 plays · 65 yds · 1:3021% → 94%
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
78.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 12 yds to the PnSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
78.4%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Juwan JohnsonSimilar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
79.8%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+8
82.0%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 8 yds to the PnSt 40Similar
Q4 0:50
4TH & 2
OWN 40
+6
84.6%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saeed Blacknall for 6 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
82.9%
Trace McSorley run for 12 yds to the Iowa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+18
80.2%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 18 yds to the Iowa 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+14
75.0%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 14 yds to the Iowa 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
75.2%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 3 yds to the Iowa 7Similar
Q4 0:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
75.2%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DeAndre ThompkinsSimilar
Q4 0:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
78.8%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q4 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
6.5%
Juwan Johnson 7 Yd pass from Trace McSorley (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:00
Juwan Johnson 7 Yd pass from Trace McSorley (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
-76.1
TD · Q4 1:42
Akrum Wadley run for 35 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+50.1
TD · Q4 10:02
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Akrum Wadley for 70 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+21.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com