2017 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2017 · High Point Solutions Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · RUTG
modelRUTG aheadMORG aheadconfidence bandkey playRUTG scoreMORG score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:31 · Luke Uransel punt for 22 yds , Hunter Hayek returns for no gain to the MorgS 47
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 5:20: Robert Martin run for 13 yds for a TD, (Andrew Harte KICK) — RUTG win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:09: Kyle Bolin pass complete to Jerome Washington for 9 yds for a TD, (Andrew Harte KICK) MORGAN ST Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined — RUTG win probability +0.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:45: Johnathan Lewis pass complete to Nakia Griffin-Stewart for 18 yds for a TD, (Andrew Harte KICK) — RUTG win probability +0.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:10: Johnathan Lewis 16 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — RUTG win probability +0.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:16: Johnathan Lewis run for 2 yds for a TD, (Andrew Harte KICK) — RUTG win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
RUTG made the numbers' call on 4 of 6MORG made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
- Q1 15:00RUTG 4th & 8 at MORG 35, tiedClose callPunted · 98.8% before the snapGo for it98.9%34% to convertField goal98.9%−<0.145% to makePuntTheir call98.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 11:37MORG 4th & 8 at MORG 37, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snapGo for it1.4%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.5%average punt
- Q1 10:42RUTG 4th & 6 at RUTG 48, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 98.5% before the snapGo for it98.5%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.5%average punt
- Q1 8:26MORG 4th & 13 at MORG 6, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snapGo for it1.6%−0.218% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.8%average punt
- Q1 5:20MORG 4th & 4 at MORG 42, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snapGo for it1.9%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.9%average punt
- Q2 11:03MORG 4th & 18 at MORG 2, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snapGo for it1.9%−0.410% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.3%average punt
- Q2 1:37MORG 4th & 4 at MORG 36, down 27Close callPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.4%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 1:11MORG 4th & 1 at MORG 20, down 34Close callPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%−0.1average punt
- Q3 14:55MORG 4th & 6 at MORG 16, down 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.3%−<0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 13:31MORG 4th & 10 at MORG 25, down 41Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 8:53RUTG 4th & 17 at MORG 20, up 41Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.213% to convertField goalTheir call99.8%75% to makePunt99.4%−0.4average punt
- Q3 8:53MORG 4th & 7 at MORG 28, down 44Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 2:03MORG 4th & 4 at MORG 31, down 51Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 15:00RUTG 4th & 23 at RUTG 33, up 51Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.27% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call100.0%average punt
- Q4 13:49MORG 4th & 6 at MORG 39, down 51Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 4:33RUTG 4th & 3 at MORG 33, up 58Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 100.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call100.0%53% to convertField goal99.9%−0.149% to makePunt99.8%−0.2average punt
- Q4 3:42RUTG 4th & 5 at MORG 5, up 65Close callWent for it · 100.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%−<0.133% to convertField goal99.9%92% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RUTG made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
- Q1 5:20RUTG Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.1%97% to makeGo for two98.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:09RUTG Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.7%97% to makeGo for two97.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:45RUTG Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.9%97% to makeGo for two98.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:10RUTG Touchdown, up 27 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick99.8%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:16RUTG Touchdown, up 33 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:31RUTG Touchdown, up 40 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:03RUTG Touchdown, up 50 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:49RUTG Touchdown, up 57 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 4:33RUTG Touchdown, up 64 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartRUTGDrive 1PUNT7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 2PUNT6 plays · 24 yds · 1:321% → 1%
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+22
99.1%
DeAndre Harris pass complete to Torrance Little Jr. for 22 yds to the MorgS 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:37
3RD & 7
OWN 38
-1
99.0%
DeAndre Harris pass complete to Eric Harrell for a loss of 1 yard to the MorgS 37Similar
Q1 11:37
4TH & 8
OWN 37
+24
99.0%
Luke Uransel punt for 43 yds , Janarion Grant returns for 24 yds to the Rutgr 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 10:42
2ND & 11
OWN 43
+4
99.0%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Myles Nash for 4 yds to the Rutgr 47Similar
Q1 10:42
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+6
99.0%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Jerome Washington for 6 yds to the MorgS 47Similar
Q1 10:42
4TH & 1
OPP 47
-5
99.0%
Bolin, Kyle rush for 1 yard to the MSU46 (GRIFFIN,Brandon), PENALTY RU false start (Miller, Dorian) 5 yards to the RU48, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 4PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 8:26
2ND & 11
OWN 8
-4
98.8%
HARRIS,DeAndre rush for 12 yards to the MSU20 (Hampton, Saquan), PENALTY MSU holding (UBUANE,Ehijele) 4 yards to the MSU4, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 5TD5 plays · 47 yds · 1:1999% → 99%
Q1 5:43
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+19
98.6%
Robert Martin run for 4 yds to the MorgS 28 for a 1ST down MORGAN ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the MorgS 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 6PUNT8 plays · 17 yds · 0:001% → 1%
RUTGDrive 7TD12 plays · 66 yds · 6:2398% → 98%
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-7
98.4%
Janarion Grant run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 37 RUTGERS Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Rutgr 27Similar
Q2 11:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
98.4%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Jerome Washington for 9 yds for a TD, (Andrew Harte KICK) MORGAN ST Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 8PUNT6 plays · -8 yds · 0:002% → 2%
RUTGDrive 9TD2 plays · 25 yds · 0:4098% → 99%
MORGDrive 10FUMBLE7 plays · 48 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+22
99.0%
Elijah Staley run for 7 yds to the MorgS 27 for a 1ST down RUTGERS Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Darnell Davis) to the MorgS 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+12
99.0%
Elijah Staley pass complete to Manassah Bailey for 12 yds to the Rutgr 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+5
98.9%
Elijah Staley run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 32 Elijah Staley fumbled, forced by Darnell Davis, recovered by Rutgr Kemoko TuraySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 11TD11 plays · 68 yds · 3:2699% → 100%
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
99.2%
Kyle Bolin pass incomplete to Janarion Grant, broken up by Carl GarnesSimilar
Q2 6:36
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+12
99.2%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Damon Mitchell for 12 yds to the Rutgr 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:36
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+23
99.2%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Josh Hicks for 23 yds to the MorgS 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
99.2%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Janarion Grant for 2 yds to the MorgS 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 12PUNT10 plays · 21 yds · 1:280% → 0%
Q2 2:27
3RD & 7
OWN 18
+12
99.9%
Elijah Staley pass complete to Eric Harrell for 12 yds to the MorgS 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:37
3RD & 4
OWN 36
0
99.9%
Elijah Staley pass incomplete to Amonta Poteat, broken up by K.J. GraySimilar
Q2 1:37
4TH & 4
OWN 36
+11
99.9%
Luke Uransel punt blocked by Hunter Hayek blocked by Hunter Hayek Mohamed Jabbie return for 11 yds to the MorgS 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 13TD2 plays · 11 yds · 0:10100% → 100%
MORGDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 15END OF HALF1 play · 9 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 17TD2 plays · 50 yds · 0:40100% → 100%
MORGDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
RUTGDrive 19FG8 plays · 27 yds · 3:35100% → 100%
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+22
99.8%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Raheem Blackshear for 22 yds to the MorgS 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+3
99.8%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Nakia Griffin-Stewart for 3 yds to the MorgS 21Similar
Q3 12:28
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+8
99.8%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Raheem Blackshear for 8 yds to the MorgS 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 7
OPP 10
-10
99.8%
Kyle Bolin sacked by Rico Kennedy for a loss of 10 yards to the MorgS 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 8:53
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Elijah Staley pass incomplete to Manassah Bailey, broken up by K.J. GraySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 21FUMBLE1 play · 35 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+22
99.9%
Josh Hicks run for 22 yds to the MorgS 27 Josh Hicks fumbled, forced by Rico Kennedy, recovered by MorgS Gerald CrowleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 22INT3 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 7:22
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+10
99.9%
Elijah Staley pass intercepted Janarion Grant return for 10 yds to the MorgS 43 RUTGERS Penalty, illegal block (Julius Turner) to the MorgS 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 23TD9 plays · 46 yds · 4:00100% → 100%
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
99.9%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Jerome Washington for 3 yds to the MorgS 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 24PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 2:03
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
99.9%
DeAndre Harris pass incomplete to Amonta Poteat, broken up by K.J. GraySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 25PUNT6 plays · -13 yds · 0:35100% → 100%
MORGDrive 26PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 13:49
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
100.0%
Luke Uransel punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Hunter Hayek at the Rutgr 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 27TD6 plays · 67 yds · 2:41100% → 100%
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+34
99.9%
Giovanni Rescigno run for 19 yds to the RUTGERS 48 for a 1ST down MORGAN ST Penalty, personal foul (Terry Harris) to the MorgS 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 28INT8 plays · 19 yds · 1:080% → 0%
Q4 9:49
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
100.0%
DeAndre Harris pass complete to Brian Gentry for 3 yds to the MorgS 32Similar
Q4 8:41
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+7
100.0%
DeAndre Harris pass complete to Daylen Baldwin for 7 yds to the MorgS 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:41
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+3
100.0%
DeAndre Harris pass complete to Brandon Jones for 3 yds to the MorgS 44Similar
Q4 8:41
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+5
100.0%
DeAndre Harris pass intercepted Tyshon Fogg return for 5 yds to the MorgS 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 29TD4 plays · 40 yds · 2:06100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 30INT3 plays · -2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
RUTGDrive 31DOWNS5 plays · -4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 32END OF GAME3 plays · 7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:45
Johnathan Lewis pass complete to Nakia Griffin-Stewart for 18 yds for a TD, (Andrew Harte KICK)
+0.9
TD · Q2 3:10
Johnathan Lewis 16 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
+0.3
TD · Q1 5:20
Robert Martin run for 13 yds for a TD, (Andrew Harte KICK)
+0.2