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AF

Air Force 13 at Michigan 29

MICH
2017 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2017 · Michigan Stadium
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Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey playMICH scoreAF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGFGFGTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:35 · Will Hart punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Ronald Cleveland at the AFA 16
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+44.0+22.00−22.0−44.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 61Pregame prior+31.1Home team on offense+1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3Garbage-time factor−0.4Score differential−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 8:37: Luke Strebel 50 yd FG GOOD — AF win probability +2.0 pts (now 14%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:04: Quinn Nordin 49 yd FG GOOD — MICH win probability +2.6 pts (now 85%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:54: Arion Worthman pass complete to Ronald Cleveland for 64 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK) — AF win probability +8.1 pts (now 18%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. FG · Q3 2:59: Quinn Nordin 29 yd FG GOOD — MICH win probability +3.7 pts (now 86%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 14:15: Quinn Nordin 36 yd FG GOOD — MICH win probability +1.8 pts (now 89%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MICH made the numbers' call on 8 of 9AF made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 10:51MICH 4th & 9 at AF 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.5%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.6%
    80% to make
    Punt
    91.1%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:04AF 4th & 5 at AF 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:11AF 4th & 1 at MICH 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    9.9%−0.3
    45% to make
    Punt
    9.8%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:48MICH 4th & 8 at AF 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.8%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.0%
    90% to make
    Punt
    85.7%−1.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:37AF 4th & 8 at MICH 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.8%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.9%
    49% to make
    Punt
    13.5%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:35MICH 4th & 3 at MICH 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 83.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.4%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:22AF 4th & 7 at AF 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.2%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:04MICH 4th & 17 at AF 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.0%−1.4
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.4%
    54% to make
    Punt
    78.9%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:51AF 4th & 9 at AF 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.7%−1.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:27MICH 4th & 5 at MICH 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.3%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:21AF 4th & 23 at AF 21, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.1%−3.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:39MICH 4th & 1 at AF 23, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    78.8%−1.9
    70% to make
    Punt
    73.2%−7.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:59MICH 4th & 11 at AF 11, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.2%−1.7
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.0%
    87% to make
    Punt
    69.2%−8.8
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:13AF 4th & 12 at AF 17, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.6%−2.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:15MICH 4th & 10 at AF 18, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.5%−1.3
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.8%
    79% to make
    Punt
    78.2%−6.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:19AF 4th & 12 at MICH 12, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.0%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.4%
    86% to make
    Punt
    4.2%−6.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:10MICH 4th & 10 at MICH 35, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.0%−1.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:50AF 4th & 14 at AF 36, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.2%−1.0
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 0 of 1AF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q3 11:54AF Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 1:02MICH Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MICHDrive 1FG
12 plays · 58 yds · 4:0494% → 93%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.9%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Kekoa CrawfordSimilar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
93.8%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Ty Isaac for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 23Similar
Q1 14:10
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+15
93.7%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Tarik Black for 15 yds to the Mich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+32
93.6%
Ty Isaac run for 32 yds to the AFA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
93.5%
Chris Evans run for 4 yds to the AFA 26Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+5
93.4%
Chris Evans run for 5 yds to the AFA 21Similar
Q1 11:51
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+3
93.2%
Khalid Hill run for 3 yds to the AFA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
93.2%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Grant PerrySimilar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+1
93.2%
Karan Higdon run for 1 yd to the AFA 17Similar
Q1 10:59
3RD & 9
OPP 17
0
93.0%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Grant PerrySimilar
Q1 10:51
4TH & 9
OPP 17
+35
93.0%
Quinn Nordin 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:447% → 8%
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
93.0%
Ronald Cleveland run for 5 yds to the AFA 22Similar
Q1 10:21
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+5
92.9%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Offside (Maurice Hurst) to the AFA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
92.8%
Parker Wilson run for 3 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+3
92.7%
Arion Worthman run for 3 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q1 8:39
3RD & 4
OWN 33
-1
92.5%
Arion Worthman run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 32Similar
Q1 8:04
4TH & 5
OWN 32
0
92.5%
Charlie Scott punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Donovan Peoples-Jones at the Mich 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 3FUMBLE
4 plays · 20 yds · 1:4992% → 92%
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
92.3%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Ty Isaac for 8 yds to the Mich 32Similar
Q1 7:32
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+1
92.3%
Ty Isaac run for 1 yd to the Mich 33Similar
Q1 6:51
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+2
92.0%
Ty Isaac run for 2 yds to the Mich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
91.9%
Chris Evans run for 9 yds to the Mich 44 Chris Evans fumbled, forced by Garrett Kauppila, recovered by AFA Robert BullardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4FG
13 plays · 24 yds · 6:138% → 11%
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
91.7%
Arion Worthman run for 2 yds to the Mich 42Similar
Q1 5:24
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+5
91.4%
Arion Worthman run for 5 yds to the Mich 37Similar
Q1 4:47
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+2
91.2%
Parker Wilson run for 2 yds to the Mich 35Similar
Q1 4:11
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+1
91.2%
Arion Worthman run for 1 yd to the Mich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
90.7%
Arion Worthman run for 7 yds to the Mich 27Similar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+5
90.5%
Arion Worthman run for 5 yds to the Mich 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
90.2%
Timothy McVey run for 15 yds to the Mich 7 AIR FORCE Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Griffin Landrum) to the Mich 22Similar
Q1 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+16
89.8%
Timothy McVey run for 9 yds to the Mich 13 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN Penalty, Face Mask (7 yards) (Devin Bush) to the Mich 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
89.7%
Timothy McVey run for no gain to the Mich 6Similar
Q1 1:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
89.5%
Timothy McVey run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 7Similar
Q1 0:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
-13
89.3%
Arion Worthman sacked by Devin Bush for a loss of 13 yards to the Mich 20Similar
Q1 0:02
4TH & 0
OPP 20
+37
88.7%
Luke Strebel 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 5FG
9 plays · 77 yds · 3:1289% → 89%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
89.4%
Ty Isaac run for 1 yd to the Mich 16Similar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+37
89.1%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 37 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
89.7%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Tarik Black for 8 yds to the AFA 39Similar
Q2 13:03
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+30
89.5%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Zach Gentry for 30 yds to the AFA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
89.5%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Kekoa CrawfordSimilar
Q2 12:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
89.4%
Eddie McDoom run for 1 yd to the AFA 8Similar
Q2 11:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
89.0%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Kekoa CrawfordSimilar
Q2 11:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
88.9%
Quinn Nordin 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6FG
9 plays · 42 yds · 3:1111% → 14%
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
88.8%
Arion Worthman run for 6 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q2 11:16
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+34
88.2%
Arion Worthman run for 34 yds to the Mich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
87.1%
Parker Wilson run for 1 yd to the Mich 34Similar
Q2 9:49
2ND & 9
OPP 34
0
86.6%
Arion Worthman run for no gain to the Mich 34Similar
Q2 9:15
3RD & 9
OPP 34
-5
87.1%
AIR FORCE Penalty, False Start (Malik Miller) to the Mich 39Similar
Q2 9:04
3RD & 14
OPP 39
+6
87.8%
Arion Worthman run for 6 yds to the Mich 33Similar
Q2 8:37
4TH & 8
OPP 33
+50
85.8%
Luke Strebel 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 2:4587% → 85%
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
86.9%
Ty Isaac run for 1 yd to the Mich 17Similar
Q2 7:41
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+15
86.4%
Ty Isaac run for 15 yds to the Mich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
86.5%
Karan Higdon run for 3 yds to the Mich 35Similar
Q2 6:44
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+6
86.3%
Karan Higdon run for 6 yds to the Mich 41Similar
Q2 6:09
3RD & 1
OWN 41
-2
86.4%
Ty Isaac run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 39Similar
Q2 5:35
4TH & 3
OWN 39
0
85.3%
Will Hart punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Ronald Cleveland at the AFA 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 2:1316% → 15%
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
83.8%
Arion Worthman run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 15Similar
Q2 4:47
2ND & 11
OWN 15
+3
83.6%
Arion Worthman run for 3 yds to the AFA 18Similar
Q2 4:08
3RD & 8
OWN 18
+1
84.5%
Arion Worthman run for 1 yd to the AFA 19Similar
Q2 3:22
4TH & 7
OWN 19
0
84.6%
Charlie Scott punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 9FG
8 plays · 9 yds · 3:1887% → 85%
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
86.7%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Eddie McDoom for 9 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q2 2:36
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+7
86.8%
Ty Isaac run for 7 yds to the AFA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
86.6%
Wilton Speight sacked by Matt Evans for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 25Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 11
OPP 25
-10
86.1%
Wilton Speight sacked by Jack Flor for a loss of 10 yards to the AFA 35 Wilton Speight fumbled, forced by Jack Flor, recovered by Mich Nick Eubanks , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 21
OPP 35
+4
84.1%
Ty Isaac run for 4 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q2 0:04
4TH & 17
OPP 31
+49
85.1%
Quinn Nordin 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
86.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11PUNT RETURN TD
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0916% → 9%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
84.2%
Parker Wilson run for 1 yd to the AFA 26Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
84.0%
Arion Worthman pass incomplete to Ronald ClevelandSimilar
Q3 14:10
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
84.5%
Arion Worthman pass incomplete to Timothy McVeySimilar
Q3 13:51
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+79
91.0%
Charlie Scott punt for 53 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for 79 yds for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:5710% → 18%
Q3 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
90.3%
Parker Wilson run for 6 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q3 13:09
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
89.8%
Arion Worthman run for 1 yd to the AFA 32Similar
Q3 12:37
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
90.1%
Arion Worthman run for 4 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
82.1%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Ronald Cleveland for 64 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2783% → 81%
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
83.4%
Ty Isaac run for no gain to the Mich 20Similar
Q3 11:04
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
82.9%
Eddie McDoom run for 5 yds to the Mich 25Similar
Q3 10:37
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
82.2%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Tarik BlackSimilar
Q3 10:27
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
81.4%
Will Hart punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Ronald Cleveland at the AFA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -13 yds · 2:0619% → 17%
Q3 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-6
81.5%
Arion Worthman sacked by Chase Winovich for a loss of 6 yards to the AFA 28Similar
Q3 9:44
2ND & 16
OWN 28
-9
82.0%
Arion Worthman run for a loss of 9 yards to the AFA 19 Arion Worthman fumbled, forced by Rashan Gary, recovered by AFA Ronald ClevelandSimilar
Q3 8:53
3RD & 25
OWN 19
+2
82.4%
Arion Worthman run for 2 yds to the AFA 21Similar
Q3 8:21
4TH & 23
OWN 21
0
82.8%
Charlie Scott punt for 22 yds, downed at the AFA 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 15FG
11 plays · 32 yds · 5:2284% → 86%
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
84.3%
Ty Isaac run for 3 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+8
84.0%
Wilton Speight run for 8 yds to the AFA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
84.4%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Eddie McDoom for 5 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+2
84.2%
Karan Higdon run for 2 yds to the AFA 25Similar
Q3 6:10
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+2
83.1%
Ty Isaac run for 2 yds to the AFA 23Similar
Q3 5:39
4TH & 1
OPP 23
+2
81.8%
Khalid Hill run for 2 yds to the AFA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+13
83.7%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Grant Perry for 13 yds to the AFA 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
83.3%
Karan Higdon run for 1 yd to the AFA 7Similar
Q3 4:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
83.0%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Grant Perry for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 8Similar
Q3 3:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-3
81.8%
Ty Isaac run for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 11Similar
Q3 2:59
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+29
85.5%
Quinn Nordin 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:4618% → 17%
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-9
82.0%
Worthman, Arion pass incomplete to Reffitt, Ryan, PENALTY AIRFORCE holding (Barnhorst, Jake) 9 yards to the AIRFORCE10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:41
1ST & 19
OWN 10
+1
82.1%
Timothy McVey run for 1 yd to the AFA 11Similar
Q3 2:09
2ND & 18
OWN 11
0
82.1%
Arion Worthman pass incomplete to Geraud SandersSimilar
Q3 1:50
3RD & 18
OWN 11
+6
82.9%
Arion Worthman run for 6 yds to the AFA 17Similar
Q3 1:13
4TH & 12
OWN 17
+25
83.3%
Charlie Scott punt for 54 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for 25 yds to the AFA 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 17FG
9 plays · 28 yds · 1:5188% → 89%
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
87.9%
Ty Isaac run for 1 yd to the AFA 45Similar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+16
88.1%
Ty Isaac run for 26 yds to the AFA 19 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Kekoa Crawford) to the AFA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
88.1%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Tarik Black for 7 yds to the AFA 22Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+4
88.0%
Karan Higdon run for 4 yds to the AFA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
88.0%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Eddie McDoomSimilar
Q4 14:39
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
87.9%
Karan Higdon run for no gain to the AFA 18Similar
Q4 14:19
3RD & 10
OPP 18
0
86.8%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Tarik BlackSimilar
Q4 14:15
4TH & 10
OPP 18
+36
88.5%
Quinn Nordin 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 18MISSED FG
19 plays · 73 yds · 6:5612% → 12%
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
88.5%
Arion Worthman run for 5 yds to the AFA 20Similar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+14
87.7%
Timothy McVey run for 4 yds to the AFA 24 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Holding (Chase Winovich) to the AFA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
87.7%
Timothy McVey run for 3 yds to the AFA 37Similar
Q4 12:37
2ND & 7
OWN 37
0
88.2%
Arion Worthman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:21
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+7
89.0%
Timothy McVey run for 7 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-3
87.7%
Arion Worthman run for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 41Similar
Q4 11:37
2ND & 13
OWN 41
+27
89.3%
Timothy McVey run for 27 yds to the Mich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
85.7%
Ronald Cleveland run for 9 yds to the Mich 23Similar
Q4 10:24
2ND & 1
OPP 23
0
85.2%
Parker Wilson run for no gain to the Mich 23Similar
Q4 10:01
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+2
86.2%
Parker Wilson run for 2 yds to the Mich 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
84.7%
Parker Wilson run for 6 yds to the Mich 15Similar
Q4 9:26
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+6
84.6%
Arion Worthman run for 6 yds to the Mich 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
83.7%
Arion Worthman run for 4 yds to the Mich 5Similar
Q4 8:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-7
83.8%
Timothy McVey run for a loss of 7 yards to the Mich 12Similar
Q4 7:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
0
86.9%
Arion Worthman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+29
88.2%
Luke Strebel 29 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:0996% → 97%
Q4 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
96.0%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 15 yds to the Mich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
96.3%
Ty Isaac run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 34Similar
Q4 7:17
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+1
96.2%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Tarik Black for 1 yd to the Mich 35Similar
Q4 6:21
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
96.8%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Kekoa CrawfordSimilar
Q4 6:10
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
96.6%
Will Hart punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:209% → 7%
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-8
90.9%
Arion Worthman sacked by Rashan Gary and Chase Winovich for a loss of 8 yards to the AFA 32Similar
Q4 6:09
2ND & 18
OWN 32
+4
92.4%
Timothy McVey run for 4 yds to the AFA 36Similar
Q4 6:08
3RD & 14
OWN 36
0
92.8%
Arion Worthman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:50
4TH & 14
OWN 36
0
93.3%
Charlie Scott punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Donovan Peoples-Jones at the Mich 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 21TD
11 plays · 73 yds · 3:4897% → 99%
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
97.2%
Karan Higdon run for 3 yds to the Mich 30Similar
Q4 4:49
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+3
97.2%
Karan Higdon run for 3 yds to the Mich 33Similar
Q4 4:48
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+24
97.1%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Tarik Black for 24 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
97.4%
Karan Higdon run for 3 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+10
97.8%
Chris Evans run for 10 yds to the AFA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-6
98.3%
Chris Evans run for 4 yds to the AFA 26 MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Michael Onwenu) to the AFA 36Similar
Q4 1:57
1ST & 16
OPP 36
-2
98.3%
Chris Evans run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 38Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 18
OPP 38
+2
98.4%
Karan Higdon run for 2 yds to the AFA 36Similar
Q4 1:02
3RD & 16
OPP 36
+36
99.3%
Karan Higdon run for 36 yds for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 22INT
5 plays · 27 yds · 0:431% → 1%
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.2%
Romine, Nate pass incomplete, PENALTY MICHIGAN personal foul (Jones, Reuben) 15 yards to the AIRFORCE40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN AIRFORCE.Similar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
99.1%
Nate Romine run for 12 yds to the Mich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
99.1%
Nate Romine pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:19
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
99.1%
Nate Romine pass intercepted Khaleke Hudson return for no gain to the Mich 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 23END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
99.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:54
Arion Worthman pass complete to Ronald Cleveland for 64 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)
-8.1
FG · Q3 2:59
Quinn Nordin 29 yd FG GOOD
+3.7
FG · Q2 0:04
Quinn Nordin 49 yd FG GOOD
+2.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com