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Indiana 34 at Virginia 17

UVA
2017 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2017 · Scott Stadium
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Win probability · UVA
modelUVA aheadIU aheadconfidence bandkey playUVA scoreIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:26 · Lester Coleman punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Virg 32 , J-Shun Harris II returns for 15 yds to the Virg 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 145Home team on offense−15.6Score differential−6.5Garbage-time factor−6.0Pregame prior−1.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:16: Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Simmie Cobbs Jr. for 29 yds for a TD, (Griffin Oakes KICK) — IU win probability +10.5 pts (now 62%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:31: Peyton Ramsey run for 26 yds for a TD, (Griffin Oakes KICK) — IU win probability +8.2 pts (now 70%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:30: Jordan Ellis run for 12 yds for a TD, (A.J. Mejia KICK) — UVA win probability +11.3 pts (now 38%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:53: Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Donavan Hale for 32 yds for a TD — IU win probability +12.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:45: Kurt Benkert pass complete to Joe Reed for 7 yds for a TD, (A.J. Mejia KICK) — UVA win probability +11.1 pts (now 26%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UVA made the numbers' call on 9 of 13IU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00UVA 4th & 3 at UVA 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.3%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:44IU 4th & 10 at IU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.2%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:00UVA 4th & 10 at UVA 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.8%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:49IU 4th & 7 at UVA 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.3%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 8:40UVA 4th & 15 at UVA 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.9%
    average punt
  6. Q1 5:04IU 4th & 10 at IU 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.0%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.5%
    average punt
  7. Q1 3:59UVA 4th & 6 at IU 18, tied
    Close callWent for it · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.6%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    45.7%
    79% to make
    Punt
    44.0%−1.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:21UVA 4th & 4 at IU 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    47.5%−0.6
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    47.5%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 12:30IU 4th & 7 at IU 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.4%−0.8
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 8:08UVA 4th & 4 at IU 4, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.0%−0.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    43.8%−5.7
    average punt
  11. Q2 8:08IU 4th & 1 at UVA 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    48.4%−2.3
    54% to make
    Punt
    47.3%−3.5
    average punt
  12. Q2 6:13UVA 4th & 3 at UVA 25, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.3%−0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.4%
    average punt
  13. Q2 1:40UVA 4th & 2 at UVA 26, down 11
    Close callPunted · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.1%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q2 0:00IU 4th & 11 at UVA 33, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.4%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.9%
    49% to make
    Punt
    70.6%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q3 15:00IU 4th & 19 at IU 14, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.4%−3.4
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.8%
    average punt
  16. Q3 7:32UVA 4th & 5 at UVA 47, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.3%
    average punt
  17. Q3 3:39IU 4th & 8 at IU 41, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.0%−2.0
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.0%
    average punt
  18. Q3 2:26UVA 4th & 6 at UVA 7, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.2%−1.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.3%
    average punt
  19. Q4 7:54IU 4th & 3 at UVA 3, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.2%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    84.5%−1.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    75.3%−10.9
    average punt
  20. Q4 5:56UVA 4th & 9 at UVA 4, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%−1.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.3%
    average punt
  21. Q4 5:56UVA 4th & 6 at IU 40, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    4.5%−0.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    4.5%−0.3
    average punt
  22. Q4 3:10IU 4th & 7 at UVA 46, up 17
    Close callPunted · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    97.1%−0.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.2%−0.1
    average punt
  23. Q4 3:01UVA 4th & 1 at UVA 19, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.5%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UVA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2IU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 6:16IU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:31IU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:30UVA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 12:45UVA Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UVADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
43.2%
Jordan Ellis run for 3 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
43.2%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 4 yds to the Virg 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
43.2%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Doni DowlingSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+2
43.2%
Lester Coleman punt for 42 yds , J-Shun Harris II returns for 2 yds to the Ind 34 INDIANA Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Ind 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 2PUNT
11 plays · 27 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
43.6%
Mike Majette run for 2 yds to the Ind 20Similar
Q1 13:44
2ND & 8
OWN 20
-5
43.6%
INDIANA Penalty, false start (Delroy Baker) to the Ind 15Similar
Q1 13:44
2ND & 13
OWN 15
+17
43.6%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Donavan Hale for 17 yds to the Ind 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
43.5%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Donavan HaleSimilar
Q1 13:44
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-5
43.5%
Richard Lagow sacked by Jordan Mack and Eli Hanback for a loss of 5 yards to the Ind 27Similar
Q1 13:44
3RD & 15
OWN 27
+5
43.6%
Lagow, Richard pass incomplete to Cobbs, Simmie, PENALTY VA offside (Bratton, D) 5 yards to the IND32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:44
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+13
43.6%
Richard Lagow run for 13 yds to the Ind 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
43.4%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Simmie Cobbs Jr.Similar
Q1 13:44
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
43.5%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Luke TimianSimilar
Q1 13:44
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
43.5%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Luke Timian, broken up by Chris MooreSimilar
Q1 13:44
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
43.6%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 49 yds, downed at the Virg 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-3
44.1%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for a loss of 3 yards to the Virg 3Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 13
OWN 3
+2
44.0%
Joe Reed run for 2 yds to the Virg 5Similar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 11
OWN 5
+1
43.9%
Jordan Ellis run for 1 yd to the Virg 6Similar
Q1 12:00
4TH & 10
OWN 6
0
43.8%
Lester Coleman punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0056% → 55%
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
50
+2
44.0%
Morgan Ellison run for 2 yds to the Virg 48Similar
Q1 9:49
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+1
44.1%
Richard Lagow run for 1 yd to the Virg 47 Richard Lagow fumbled, forced by Andre Brown Jr., recovered by Ind Ian ThomasSimilar
Q1 9:49
3RD & 7
OPP 47
0
44.1%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Morgan EllisonSimilar
Q1 9:49
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
44.6%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Daniel Hamm at the Virg 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 33 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+15
44.8%
Benkert, K pass incomplete to Dowling, D, PENALTY IND pass interference (Fant, Rashard) 15 yards to the VA27, 1ST DOWN VA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
44.9%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Ben Hogg for 8 yds to the Virg 35Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+4
45.2%
Jordan Ellis run for 4 yds to the Virg 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
45.1%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 6 yds to the Virg 45Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+1
45.5%
Chris Sharp run for 1 yd to the Virg 46Similar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+4
45.3%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
50
-5
45.5%
Daniel Hamm run for a loss of 5 yards to the Virg 45Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 15
OWN 45
0
45.0%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 15
OWN 45
0
44.8%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:40
4TH & 15
OWN 45
+5
44.5%
Lester Coleman punt for 48 yds , J-Shun Harris II returns for 5 yds to the Ind 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-1
45.7%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Mike Majette for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 11Similar
Q1 5:04
2ND & 11
OWN 11
+1
45.8%
Mike Majette run for 1 yd to the Ind 12Similar
Q1 5:04
3RD & 10
OWN 12
0
46.1%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Ian ThomasSimilar
Q1 5:04
4TH & 10
OWN 12
0
46.5%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Daniel Hamm at the Virg 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 7DOWNS
10 plays · 45 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
46.8%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 3 yds to the Virg 43Similar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+4
47.2%
Jordan Ellis run for 4 yds to the Virg 47Similar
Q1 3:59
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+20
46.9%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 20 yds to the Ind 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
47.7%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Evan Butts for 9 yds to the Ind 24 INDIANA Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 1
OPP 24
-1
47.7%
Jordan Ellis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 25Similar
Q1 3:59
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+3
47.2%
Jordan Ellis run for 3 yds to the Ind 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
47.7%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Doni Dowling, broken up by A'Shon RigginsSimilar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+4
47.6%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Evan Butts for 4 yds to the Ind 18Similar
Q1 3:59
3RD & 6
OPP 18
0
47.2%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Doni DowlingSimilar
Q1 3:59
4TH & 6
OPP 18
+3
46.5%
Nash Griffin run for 3 yds to the Ind 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 8INT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:4454% → 54%
Q1 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
46.4%
Morgan Ellison run for 5 yds to the Ind 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+1
46.3%
Morgan Ellison run for 1 yd to the Ind 21Similar
Q2 14:27
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+8
46.7%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Luke Timian for 8 yds to the Ind 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
45.8%
Mike Majette run for 5 yds to the Ind 34Similar
Q2 14:27
2ND & 5
OWN 34
-1
45.2%
Mike Majette run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 33Similar
Q2 14:27
3RD & 6
OWN 33
0
46.0%
Richard Lagow pass intercepted Juan Thornhill return for no gain to the Ind 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0050% → 48%
Q2 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
49.5%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:21
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+6
49.4%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 6 yds to the Ind 38Similar
Q2 13:21
3RD & 4
OPP 38
0
49.2%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Joe ReedSimilar
Q2 13:21
4TH & 4
OPP 38
0
48.2%
Lester Coleman punt for 36 yds, fair catch by J-Shun Harris II at the Ind 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0053% → 52%
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-1
46.8%
Mike Majette run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 1Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 11
OWN 1
+4
47.0%
Mike Majette run for 4 yds to the Ind 5Similar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 7
OWN 5
0
47.6%
Mike Majette run for no gain to the Ind 5Similar
Q2 12:30
4TH & 7
OWN 5
+18
48.2%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 37 yds , Daniel Hamm returns for 18 yds to the Ind 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 11FG
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:4451% → 53%
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
50.9%
Kurt Benkert run for no gain to the Ind 24 Kurt Benkert fumbled, recovered by Virg Kurt BenkertSimilar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+4
50.8%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 4 yds to the Ind 20Similar
Q2 9:34
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+15
50.7%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 15 yds to the Ind 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
51.5%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
51.5%
Jordan Ellis run for 1 yd to the Ind 4Similar
Q2 9:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
50.7%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
52.8%
A.J. Mejia 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 12TD
7 plays · 59 yds · 1:5251% → 62%
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+19
48.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Mike Majette for 19 yds to the Virg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
48.0%
Peyton Ramsey run for 3 yds to the Virg 37Similar
Q2 8:08
2ND & 7
OPP 37
0
48.0%
Mike Majette run for no gain to the Virg 37Similar
Q2 8:08
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+6
48.3%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ian Thomas for 6 yds to the Virg 31Similar
Q2 8:08
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+2
48.9%
Mike Majette run for 2 yds to the Virg 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
38.4%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Simmie Cobbs Jr. for 29 yds for a TD, (Griffin Oakes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0042% → 40%
Q2 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
41.6%
Jordan Ellis run for 2 yds to the Virg 20Similar
Q2 6:13
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+5
41.4%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Joe Reed for 5 yds to the Virg 25Similar
Q2 6:13
3RD & 3
OWN 25
0
41.0%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Doni DowlingSimilar
Q2 6:13
4TH & 3
OWN 25
+43
40.0%
Lester Coleman punt for 48 yds , J-Shun Harris II returns for 43 yds to the Virg 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 14TD
5 plays · 30 yds · 1:1262% → 70%
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
38.4%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Simmie Cobbs Jr. for 4 yds to the Virg 26Similar
Q2 4:43
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+7
38.1%
Cole Gest run for 7 yds to the Virg 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-15
38.1%
Ramsey, Peyton pass complete to Cobbs, Simmie for 17 yards to the VA2 (Hall, B), PENALTY IND pass interference (Cobbs, Simmie) 15 yards to the VA34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:43
1ST & 25
OPP 34
+8
38.6%
Peyton Ramsey run for 8 yds to the Virg 26Similar
Q2 3:31
2ND & 17
OPP 26
+26
30.4%
Peyton Ramsey run for 26 yds for a TD, (Griffin Oakes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:4731% → 29%
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
30.7%
Daniel Hamm run for 3 yds to the Virg 21Similar
Q2 3:27
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+5
30.7%
Joe Reed run for 5 yds to the Virg 26Similar
Q2 3:27
3RD & 2
OWN 26
0
30.5%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for no gain to the Virg 26Similar
Q2 1:40
4TH & 2
OWN 26
0
29.3%
Lester Coleman punt for 19 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Virg 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 16FG
8 plays · 12 yds · 1:3571% → 77%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
28.9%
Peyton Ramsey run for 5 yds to the Virg 40Similar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+8
28.6%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ricky Brookins for 8 yds to the Virg 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
28.6%
Peyton Ramsey run for 4 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 6
OPP 28
-7
26.7%
Peyton Ramsey sacked by Chris Peace for a loss of 7 yards to the Virg 35Similar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 13
OPP 35
+2
27.6%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Luke Timian for 2 yds to the Virg 33Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 11
OPP 33
+51
22.8%
Griffin Oakes 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 0:0076% → 74%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
24.5%
Mike Majette run for 2 yds to the Ind 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+4
24.4%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Simmie Cobbs Jr. for 4 yds to the Ind 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 29
-15
24.6%
Peyton Ramsey sacked by Micah Kiser for a loss of 15 yards to the Ind 14Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 19
OWN 14
0
25.7%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Daniel Hamm at the Virg 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 18TD
9 plays · 55 yds · 2:3826% → 38%
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
26.2%
Jordan Ellis run for 1 yd to the Virg 46Similar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 9
OWN 46
0
26.0%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Doni Dowling, broken up by Rashard FantSimilar
Q3 13:08
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+10
25.5%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 10 yds to the Ind 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
26.5%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Jordan Ellis for 8 yds to the Ind 36Similar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 2
OPP 36
0
26.5%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Ben Hogg, broken up by A'Shon RigginsSimilar
Q3 13:08
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+15
26.4%
Benkert, K pass incomplete to Cross, D (Riggins, A'Shon), PENALTY IND pass interference (Riggins, A'Shon) 15 yards to the IND21, 1ST DOWN VA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
27.1%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Evan ButtsSimilar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+9
27.1%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Evan Butts for 9 yds to the Ind 12Similar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+12
38.4%
Jordan Ellis run for 12 yds for a TD, (A.J. Mejia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 19FG
9 plays · 45 yds · 2:5867% → 73%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
33.1%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Luke Timian for 8 yds to the Ind 33Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+7
31.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Luke Timian for 7 yds to the Ind 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
31.0%
Mike Majette run for 1 yd to the Ind 41Similar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 5
OPP 39
+10
30.3%
Peyton Ramsey run for 10 yds to the Virg 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
29.9%
Peyton Ramsey run for 4 yds to the Virg 25Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 6
OPP 25
-5
29.9%
Peyton Ramsey sacked by Micah Kiser for a loss of 5 yards to the Virg 30Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+20
31.4%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ian Thomas for 15 yds to the VIRGINIA 44 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA Penalty, face mask (5 yards) (Quin Blanding) to the Virg 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:32
3RD & 11
OPP 30
+48
27.5%
Griffin Oakes 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 20PUNT
11 plays · 27 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q3 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
27.5%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Evan Butts for 7 yds to the Virg 27Similar
Q3 7:32
2ND & 3
OWN 27
-6
28.2%
VIRGINIA Penalty, false start (R.J. Proctor) to the Virg 21Similar
Q3 7:32
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+11
27.4%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Warren Craft for 11 yds to the Virg 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
28.1%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 6 yds to the Virg 38Similar
Q3 7:32
2ND & 4
OWN 38
0
29.3%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Terrell JanaSimilar
Q3 7:32
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+4
28.1%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 4 yds to the Virg 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
29.2%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 5 yds to the Virg 47Similar
Q3 7:32
2ND & 5
OWN 47
0
29.9%
Daniel Hamm run for no gain to the Virg 47Similar
Q3 7:32
3RD & 5
OWN 47
0
29.0%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Daniel Hamm for no gain to the Virg 47Similar
Q3 7:32
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
27.6%
Lester Coleman punt for 30 yds, fair catch by J-Shun Harris II at the Ind 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+16
24.6%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Simmie Cobbs Jr. for 16 yds to the Ind 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
22.6%
Cole Gest run for 1 yd to the Ind 40Similar
Q3 3:39
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+1
22.8%
Peyton Ramsey run for 1 yd to the Ind 41Similar
Q3 3:39
3RD & 8
OWN 41
0
23.2%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Luke Timian INDIANA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 3:39
4TH & 8
OWN 41
0
24.9%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 56 yds, downed at the Virg 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0023% → 21%
Q3 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
22.9%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q3 2:26
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+2
22.9%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 2 yds to the Virg 5Similar
Q3 2:26
3RD & 8
OWN 5
+2
21.8%
Daniel Hamm run for 2 yds to the Virg 7Similar
Q3 2:26
4TH & 6
OWN 7
+15
20.9%
Lester Coleman punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Virg 32 , J-Shun Harris II returns for 15 yds to the Virg 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 23TD
2 plays · 32 yds · 0:0091% → 92%
Q3 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
8.8%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Donavan Hale for 32 yds for a TDSimilar
Q3 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
8.4%
Donavan Hale 32 Yd pass from Peyton Ramsey (Griffin Oakes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 24TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:0813% → 26%
Q3 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
12.8%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 6 yds to the Virg 31Similar
Q3 0:53
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
13.3%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q3 0:53
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+7
13.1%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Evan Butts for 7 yds to the Virg 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
13.8%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Joe Reed for 11 yds to the Virg 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
14.3%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 4 yds to the Ind 47Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+11
13.1%
Kurt Benkert run for 11 yds to the Ind 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
13.3%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Andre Levrone for 5 yds to the Ind 31Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+6
14.7%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 6 yds to the Ind 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
14.7%
Benkert, K pass incomplete to Levrone, A, PENALTY IND holding 10 yards to the IND15, 1ST DOWN VA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
14.7%
INDIANA Penalty, personal foul (Greg Gooch) to the Ind 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
14.7%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Doni Dowling, broken up by Jonathan CrawfordSimilar
Q4 12:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
25.8%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Joe Reed for 7 yds for a TD, (A.J. Mejia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 25DOWNS
18 plays · 72 yds · 4:5180% → 87%
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
20.0%
Peyton Ramsey run for 8 yds to the Ind 33Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
19.4%
Mike Majette run for no gain to the Ind 33Similar
Q4 12:45
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
20.1%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ian Thomas for 3 yds to the Ind 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
19.0%
Morgan Ellison run for 8 yds to the Ind 44Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+6
18.2%
Morgan Ellison run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
50
+9
18.0%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Simmie Cobbs Jr. for 9 yds to the Virg 41Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+5
17.8%
Morgan Ellison run for 5 yds to the Virg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
18.0%
Morgan Ellison run for 9 yds to the Virg 27Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 1
OPP 27
+5
17.4%
Ramsey, Peyton pass incomplete to Hale, Donavan (Thornhill, J), PENALTY VA offside (Kiser, M) 5 yards to the VA22, 1ST DOWN IND, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
17.4%
Morgan Ellison run for 3 yds to the Virg 19Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+5
17.4%
Morgan Ellison run for 5 yds to the Virg 14Similar
Q4 12:45
3RD & 2
OPP 14
+4
18.1%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Morgan Ellison for 4 yds to the Virg 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
17.4%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Simmie Cobbs Jr., broken up by Bryce HallSimilar
Q4 12:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
17.4%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Simmie Cobbs Jr.Similar
Q4 7:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
12.1%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ian Thomas for 7 yds to the Virg 3Similar
Q4 7:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
0
12.8%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Mike Majette, broken up by Micah KiserSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 26PUNT RETURN TD
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:0712% → 4%
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
12.1%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q4 7:03
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+1
11.8%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Daniel Hamm for 1 yd to the Virg 4Similar
Q4 7:03
3RD & 9
OWN 4
0
11.4%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Andre LevroneSimilar
Q4 5:56
4TH & 9
OWN 4
+44
4.2%
Lester Coleman punt for 40 yds , J-Shun Harris II returns for 44 yds for a TD, (Griffin Oakes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 27DOWNS
10 plays · 23 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
4.5%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 9 yds to the Virg 35Similar
Q4 5:56
2ND & 1
OWN 35
0
4.8%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q4 5:56
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+3
4.8%
Jordan Ellis run for 3 yds to the Virg 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
4.7%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Andre LevroneSimilar
Q4 5:56
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+18
4.6%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Evan Butts for 18 yds to the Ind 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
5.2%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Ben HoggSimilar
Q4 5:56
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+4
5.1%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 4 yds to the Ind 40Similar
Q4 5:56
3RD & 6
OPP 40
0
5.2%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to De'Vante CrossSimilar
Q4 5:56
4TH & 6
OPP 40
-11
5.1%
Kurt Benkert sacked by Tegray Scales and Jacob Robinson for a loss of 11 yards to the Virg 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 28PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:0198% → 98%
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
2.5%
Morgan Ellison run for 2 yds to the Virg 47Similar
Q4 4:11
2ND & 8
OPP 47
-1
2.5%
Morgan Ellison run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 48Similar
Q4 3:18
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+2
2.2%
Morgan Ellison run for 2 yds to the Virg 46Similar
Q4 3:10
4TH & 7
OPP 46
+2
2.2%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 38 yds , Daniel Hamm returns for 2 yds to the Virg 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 29END OF GAME
11 plays · 45 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
1.1%
Jordan Ellis run for 3 yds to the Virg 13Similar
Q4 3:01
2ND & 7
OWN 13
0
1.1%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q4 3:01
3RD & 7
OWN 13
+6
1.1%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 6 yds to the Virg 19Similar
Q4 3:01
4TH & 1
OWN 19
+6
1.1%
Jordan Ellis run for 6 yds to the Virg 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
1.1%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Jordan Ellis for a loss of 3 yards to the Virg 22Similar
Q4 3:01
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+12
1.1%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Terrell Jana for 12 yds to the Virg 34Similar
Q4 3:01
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
1.2%
Jordan Ellis run for 2 yds to the Virg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+19
1.1%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Andre Levrone for 19 yds to the Ind 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
1.2%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete, broken up by LeShaun Minor Jr.Similar
Q4 3:01
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
1.2%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Doni Dowling, broken up by Dameon Willis Jr.Similar
Q4 3:01
3RD & 10
OPP 45
0
1.2%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:53
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Donavan Hale for 32 yds for a TD
-12
TD · Q3 10:30
Jordan Ellis run for 12 yds for a TD, (A.J. Mejia KICK)
+11.3
TD · Q4 12:45
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Joe Reed for 7 yds for a TD, (A.J. Mejia KICK)
+11.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com