2017 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2017 · Husky Stadium
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Win probability · WASH
modelWASH aheadWSU aheadconfidence bandkey playWASH scoreWSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:37 · Tristan Vizcaino 44 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 9:25: Myles Gaskin run for 2 yds for a TD, (Tristan Vizcaino KICK) — WASH win probability +1.5 pts (now 76%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 12:34: Jake Browning run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tristan Vizcaino KICK) — WASH win probability +5.2 pts (now 82%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:51: Myles Gaskin run for 2 yds for a TD, (Tristan Vizcaino KICK) — WASH win probability +8.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- FG · Q2 1:37: Tristan Vizcaino 44 yd FG GOOD — WASH win probability +0.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- FG · Q3 8:45: Tristan Vizcaino 34 yd FG GOOD — WASH win probability +3.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WASH made the numbers' call on 5 of 7WSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 8:28WSU 4th & 17 at WSU 18, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.5% before the snapGo for it24.3%−0.313% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.6%average punt
- Q1 7:24WASH 4th & 11 at WASH 24, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.8% before the snapGo for it74.7%−0.425% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call75.1%average punt
- Q1 5:59WSU 4th & 7 at WSU 35, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.4% before the snapGo for it24.4%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.5%average punt
- Q1 3:20WASH 4th & 5 at WASH 23, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.9% before the snapGo for it74.9%−0.340% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call75.2%average punt
- Q2 14:28WASH 4th & 6 at WSU 41, up 7Close callPunted · 75.7% before the snapGo for it75.8%40% to convertField goal75.4%−0.532% to makePuntTheir call75.5%−0.3average punt
- Q2 9:25WSU 4th & 3 at WSU 37, down 14Close callPunted · 18.8% before the snapGo for it18.9%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.6%−0.3average punt
- Q2 3:37WSU 4th & 17 at WSU 2, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snapGo for it5.7%−2.411% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.2%average punt
- Q2 1:37WASH 4th & 7 at WSU 27, up 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.6% before the snapGo for it93.0%−0.436% to convertField goalTheir call93.5%62% to makePunt90.6%−2.8average punt
- Q3 13:04WSU 4th & 6 at WSU 30, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.5% before the snapGo for it5.6%−0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.7%average punt
- Q3 8:45WASH 4th & 6 at WSU 17, up 24Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.7% before the snapGo for it95.3%−0.238% to convertField goalTheir call95.6%80% to makePunt93.0%−2.5average punt
- Q3 3:53WSU 4th & 17 at WSU 47, down 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.3%−0.114% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q4 14:08WASH 4th & 12 at WSU 48, up 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.123% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
- Q4 1:27WASH 4th & 4 at WASH 43, up 27Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WASH made the numbers' call on 5 of 5WSU made the numbers' call on 0 of 2
- Q1 9:25WASH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call74.8%97% to makeGo for two74.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:34WASH Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call80.7%97% to makeGo for two80.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:51WASH Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.4%97% to makeGo for two92.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:06WASH Touchdown, up 33 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:01WSU Touchdown, down 28 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call0.2%−<0.197% to makeGo for two0.2%45% to convert
- Q4 7:29WASH Touchdown, up 33 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:48WSU Touchdown, down 28 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call0.1%−<0.197% to makeGo for two0.1%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWASHDrive 1TD12 plays · 75 yds · 5:2075% → 76%
Q1 11:45
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+10
74.7%
Jake Browning pass complete to Salvon Ahmed for 10 yds to the WshSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+10
74.7%
Jake Browning pass complete to Dante Pettis for 10 yds to the WshSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
74.6%
Jake Browning pass complete to Dante Pettis for 5 yds to the WshSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 2PUNT6 plays · -7 yds · 0:4725% → 24%
WASHDrive 3PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5776% → 75%
WSUDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1125% → 24%
WASHDrive 5FUMBLE6 plays · 22 yds · 2:3576% → 75%
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
75.7%
Jake Browning pass complete to Drew Sample for 5 yds to the Wash 6Similar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 6
OWN 22
0
75.9%
Jake Browning pass incomplete to Aaron Fuller, broken up by Darrien MoltonSimilar
Q1 3:49
3RD & 6
OWN 22
+1
75.5%
Jake Browning pass complete to Will Dissly for 1 yd to the Wash 23Similar
Q1 3:20
4TH & 5
OWN 23
+51
75.2%
Joel Whitford punt for 51 yds , Jamal Morrow returns for a loss of 1 yard to the WshSt 25 Jamal Morrow fumbled, recovered by WshSt Jamal MorrowSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 6INT5 plays · 23 yds · 2:2024% → 25%
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
75.7%
Luke Falk pass complete to James Williams for 22 yds to the WshSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-10
74.4%
Luke Falk sacked by Levi Onwuzurike for a loss of 10 yards to the WshSt 48Similar
Q1 0:55
2ND & 20
OWN 48
+33
75.3%
Luke Falk pass intercepted JoJo McIntosh return for 33 yds to the WshSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1977% → 76%
Q1 0:02
2ND & 8
OPP 43
-10
76.8%
Browning, Jake pass complete to Baccellia, Andre for 38 yards to the WASHST5, PENALTY WASHINGTON holding (Lenius, Brayden) 10 yards to the WASHINGTON47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 18
OWN 47
+12
76.2%
Jake Browning pass complete to Ty Jones for 12 yds to the WASHINGTON 41 WASHINGTON ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Frankie Luvu) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 8FUMBLE3 plays · 27 yds · 1:1924% → 25%
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+21
75.7%
Luke Falk pass complete to Tavares Martin Jr. for 21 yds to the WshSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
75.5%
Luke Falk pass complete to Renard Bell for 8 yds to the WshSt 30Similar
Q2 13:06
2ND & 2
OWN 30
0
74.8%
Luke Falk run for a loss of 2 yards to the WshSt 28 Luke Falk fumbled, forced by Keishawn Bierria, recovered by Wash Austin Joyner , return for no gain to the WshSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 9TD2 plays · 28 yds · 0:2677% → 82%
WSUDrive 10PUNT7 plays · 19 yds · 2:5120% → 19%
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
80.3%
Luke Falk pass complete to Renard Bell for 7 yds to the WshSt 25Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+5
80.2%
Luke Falk pass complete to Isaiah Johnson-Mack for 5 yds to the WshSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
80.4%
Luke Falk pass complete to Davontavean Martin for 2 yds to the WshSt 32Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+6
80.5%
Luke Falk pass complete to Dezmon Patmon for 6 yds to the WshSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 11TD9 plays · 93 yds · 4:2782% → 93%
Q2 9:00
2ND & 13
OWN 4
+14
82.3%
Jake Browning pass complete to Andre Baccellia for 14 yds to the Wash 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 12PUNT5 plays · -7 yds · 1:009% → 8%
WASHDrive 13FG7 plays · 14 yds · 1:5494% → 94%
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
93.5%
Jake Browning pass complete to Ty Jones for 11 yds to the WshSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 14INT6 plays · 44 yds · 1:187% → 8%
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+23
93.0%
Luke Falk pass complete to Tavares Martin Jr. for 23 yds to the WshSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
92.7%
Luke Falk pass complete to Isaiah Johnson-Mack for 9 yds to the Wash 46Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+12
92.3%
Luke Falk pass complete to Kyle Sweet for 12 yds to the Wash 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+41
92.1%
Luke Falk pass intercepted Ezekiel Turner return for 41 yds to the WshSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 15END OF HALF3 plays · -1 yds · 0:0295% → 95%
WSUDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:417% → 6%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
93.4%
Luke Falk pass complete to Tavares Martin Jr. for 8 yds to the WshSt 34Similar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 1
OWN 35
-5
92.9%
Luke Falk pass complete to Kyle Sweet for a loss of 5 yards Kyle Sweet fumbled, recovered by WshSt Kyle SweetSimilar
Q3 13:04
4TH & 6
OWN 30
0
94.4%
Erik Powell punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Aaron Fuller at the Wash 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 17FG9 plays · 50 yds · 4:1095% → 99%
Q3 12:20
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+1
95.1%
Jake Browning pass complete to Andre Baccellia for 1 yd to the Wash 35Similar
Q3 11:45
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+15
95.4%
Browning, Jake pass incomplete to Jones, Ty, PENALTY WASHST personal foul (Mata'afa, Hercules) 15 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WASHINGTON. H. Mata'afa was ejected for Targeting. Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+20
95.8%
Jake Browning pass complete to Kamari Pleasant for 20 yds to the WshSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
3RD & 10
OPP 21
+4
96.2%
Jake Browning pass complete to Aaron Fuller for 4 yds to the WshSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 18INT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:331% → 1%
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
99.3%
Luke Falk pass complete to Jamal Morrow for 7 yds to the WshSt 30Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 3
OWN 30
-5
99.2%
Falk, Luke pass complete to Martin, Davontavean for 15 yards to the WASHST45, PENALTY WASHST ineligible downfield on pass (Calvin, Jamire) 5 yards to the WASHST25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:52
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+11
99.4%
Luke Falk pass intercepted Ben Burr-Kirven return for 11 yds to the WshSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 19TD2 plays · 26 yds · 0:34100% → 100%
WSUDrive 20PUNT8 plays · 26 yds · 1:591% → 0%
Q3 5:40
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+21
99.6%
Luke Falk pass complete to Dezmon Patmon for 21 yds to the WshSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
99.5%
Luke Falk pass complete to Jamal Morrow for 12 yds to the Wash 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-7
99.6%
Luke Falk sacked by Jaylen Johnson for a loss of 7 yards to the WshSt 47Similar
Q3 3:53
4TH & 17
OWN 47
0
99.7%
Mitchell Cox punt for 38 yds , Aaron Fuller returns for no gain to the Wash 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 21PUNT8 plays · 37 yds · 4:29100% → 100%
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 42
-6
99.8%
Jake Browning sacked by Nick Begg for a loss of 6 yards to the WshSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 22TD15 plays · 88 yds · 4:440% → 0%
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
99.8%
Luke Falk pass complete to Jamal Morrow for 6 yds to the WshSt 18Similar
Q4 13:28
2ND & 4
OWN 18
0
99.8%
Luke Falk pass incomplete to Jamire Calvin, broken up by Byron MurphySimilar
Q4 13:20
3RD & 4
OWN 18
+16
99.8%
Luke Falk pass complete to Jamal Morrow for 16 yds to the WshSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:31
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+20
99.8%
Luke Falk pass complete to Dezmon Patmon for 20 yds to the Wash 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+18
99.8%
Luke Falk pass complete to Jamal Morrow for 18 yds to the Wash 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
99.8%
Luke Falk pass complete to Jamal Morrow for 8 yds to the Wash 20Similar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+6
99.8%
Luke Falk pass complete to Renard Bell for 6 yds to the Wash 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
99.8%
Luke Falk pass complete to Tavares Martin Jr. for 3 yds to the Wash 11Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+8
99.9%
Luke Falk pass complete to Kyle Sweet for 8 yds to the Wash 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 23TD4 plays · 49 yds · 1:21100% → 100%
WSUDrive 24TD11 plays · 74 yds · 4:170% → 0%
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
99.9%
Luke Falk pass complete to Jamal Morrow for 2 yds to the WshSt 28Similar
Q4 6:07
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+7
99.9%
Luke Falk pass complete to Tavares Martin Jr. for 7 yds to the WshSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:01
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+10
99.9%
Luke Falk pass complete to Dezmon Patmon for 10 yds to the Wash 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+12
99.9%
Luke Falk pass complete to James Williams for 12 yds to the Wash 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:48
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+33
99.9%
Luke Falk pass complete to Davontavean Martin for 33 yds for a TD, (Erik Powell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 25PUNT9 plays · 25 yds · 1:03100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 26END OF GAME5 plays · 38 yds · 1:170% → 0%
Q4 1:05
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+7
100.0%
Luke Falk pass complete to Davontavean Martin for 7 yds to the WshSt 13Similar
Q4 0:43
3RD & 3
OWN 13
+12
100.0%
Luke Falk pass complete to Davontavean Martin for 12 yds to the WshSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
100.0%
Luke Falk pass complete to Davontavean Martin for 16 yds to the WshSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
100.0%
Luke Falk pass complete to Dezmon Patmon for 3 yds to the WshSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:51
Myles Gaskin run for 2 yds for a TD, (Tristan Vizcaino KICK)
+8.7
TD · Q2 12:34
Jake Browning run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tristan Vizcaino KICK)
+5.2
FG · Q3 8:45
Tristan Vizcaino 34 yd FG GOOD
+3.1