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ORST

Oregon State 10 at Oregon 69

ORE
2017 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2017 · Autzen Stadium
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Win probability · ORE
modelORE aheadORST aheadconfidence bandkey playORE scoreORST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:56 · Nick Porebski punt for 34 yds, downed at the Oregn 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 51Pregame prior+37.4Home team on offense+6.7Score differential+2.6Blowout margin+0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.3Garbage-time factor+1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:28: Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 29 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK) — ORE win probability +1.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 0:51: Darell Garretson pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 43 yds for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK) — ORST win probability +2.1 pts (now 8%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 14:56: Justin Herbert pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 12 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK) — ORE win probability +2.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 10:49: Royce Freeman run for 13 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK) — ORE win probability +1.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 8:49: Jaylon Redd run for 19 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK) — ORE win probability +1.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORE made the numbers' call on 7 of 7ORST made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 11:26ORE 4th & 14 at ORST 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.2%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.4%
    84% to make
    Punt
    92.9%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:26ORST 4th & 13 at ORST 5, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.3%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:38ORE 4th & 1 at ORST 15, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    93.0%−0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    92.6%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:56ORST 4th & 1 at ORST 34, down 17
    Close callPunted · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.5%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:49ORST 4th & 2 at ORST 18, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.5%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:43ORST 4th & 4 at ORST 31, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:32ORE 4th & 10 at ORE 34, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:02ORST 4th & 8 at ORST 26, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:21ORST 4th & 15 at ORE 29, down 45
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.8%
    58% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00ORST 4th & 1 at ORST 21, down 45
    Close callPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:21ORE 4th & 8 at ORST 8, up 45
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−<0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.7%
    90% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:31ORST 4th & 6 at ORE 6, down 55
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    -0.3%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:31ORE 4th & 1 at ORE 41, up 52
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00ORE 4th & 11 at ORE 48, up 52
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:11ORST 4th & 11 at ORST 12, down 52
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:24ORST 4th & 10 at ORST 25, down 59
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:13ORE 4th & 28 at ORE 34, up 59
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORE made the numbers' call on 9 of 9ORST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 6:50ORE Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:28ORE Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:51ORST Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:56ORE Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 10:49ORE Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 8:49ORE Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 7:43ORE Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 2:13ORE Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 6:22ORE Touchdown, up 54 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 11:24ORE Touchdown, up 58 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OREDrive 1FG
12 plays · 64 yds · 3:3495% → 94%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+15
94.5%
OREGON ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Oregn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+17
94.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 17 yds to the OrgSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+14
94.5%
Royce Freeman run for 14 yds to the OrgSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
94.5%
Royce Freeman run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+13
94.5%
Royce Freeman run for 13 yds to the OrgSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
94.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 5 yds to the OrgSt 5Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
94.5%
OREGON Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the OrgSt 10Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-10
94.5%
Freeman, Royce rush for 9 yards to the OSU1 (Moore, Jalen), PENALTY ORE holding 10 yards to the OSU20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 20
0
94.5%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Johnny Johnson III, broken up by Shawn WilsonSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 20
+6
94.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 6 yds to the OrgSt 14Similar
Q1 11:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+31
93.7%
Aidan Schneider 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-7
93.8%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Ryan Nall for a loss of 7 yards to the OrgSt 1Similar
Q1 11:26
2ND & 17
OWN 1
+4
93.8%
Ryan Nall run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 5Similar
Q1 11:26
3RD & 13
OWN 5
0
93.8%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Noah Togiai, broken up by Troy DyeSimilar
Q1 11:26
4TH & 13
OWN 5
0
93.8%
Nick Porebski punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Dillon Mitchell at the OrgSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 3TD
9 plays · 47 yds · 2:4894% → 93%
Q1 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+23
93.5%
Royce Freeman run for 23 yds to the OrgSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
93.6%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Charles Nelson, broken up by Jonathan WillisSimilar
Q1 9:38
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+2
93.5%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 22Similar
Q1 9:38
3RD & 8
OPP 22
+7
93.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Royce Freeman for 7 yds to the OrgSt 15Similar
Q1 9:38
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+4
93.4%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
93.6%
Royce Freeman run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 4Similar
Q1 9:38
2ND & 3
OPP 4
+2
93.6%
OREGON ST Penalty, delay of game (2 Yards) to the OrgSt 2Similar
Q1 9:38
2ND & 1
OPP 2
0
93.6%
Royce Freeman run for no gain to the OrgSt 2Similar
Q1 6:50
3RD & 1
OPP 2
+2
93.4%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 4FUMBLE
4 plays · 16 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
93.3%
Ryan Nall run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+8
93.3%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 8 yds to the OrgSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
93.3%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 5 yds Timmy Hernandez fumbled, forced by Ugochukwu Amadi, recovered by Oregn Thomas Graham Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 5TD
6 plays · 33 yds · 2:0494% → 95%
Q1 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
93.5%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Johnny Johnson III, broken up by Bright UgwoegbuSimilar
Q1 5:32
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+12
93.5%
Jaylon Redd run for 12 yds to the OrgSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
93.5%
Tony Brooks-James run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 18Similar
Q1 5:32
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+4
93.5%
Tony Brooks-James run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 14Similar
Q1 5:32
3RD & 3
OPP 14
-15
93.4%
Herbert, Justin rush for 6 yards to the OSU8, out-of-bounds, PENALTY ORE illegal block 15 yards to the OSU29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:28
3RD & 18
OPP 29
+29
94.6%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 29 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 6TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 2:376% → 8%
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
94.4%
Thomas Tyner run for 11 yds to the OrgSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
94.3%
Thomas Tyner run for 7 yds to the Oregn 47Similar
Q1 3:28
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+2
94.2%
Thomas Tyner run for 2 yds to the Oregn 45Similar
Q1 3:28
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+2
94.2%
Ryan Nall run for 2 yds to the Oregn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
92.1%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 43 yds for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 7TD
4 plays · 61 yds · 0:5593% → 95%
Q1 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+49
92.7%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 49 yds to the OrgSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
92.8%
Royce Freeman run for no gain to the OrgSt 12 Royce Freeman fumbled, recovered by Oregn Royce FreemanSimilar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+12
94.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 12 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.6%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Jordan Villamin, broken up by Arrion SpringsSimilar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
94.7%
Ryan Nall run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
94.5%
Ryan Nall run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q2 14:56
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
94.6%
Nick Porebski punt for 34 yds, downed at the Oregn 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 9TD
8 plays · 68 yds · 2:3195% → 97%
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
95.0%
Taj Griffin run for 1 yd to the Oregn 33Similar
Q2 13:20
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+8
95.0%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 8 yds to the Oregn 41Similar
Q2 13:20
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+5
95.0%
Royce Freeman run for 5 yds to the Oregn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
95.2%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Johnny Johnson IIISimilar
Q2 13:20
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
95.1%
Tony Brooks-James run for no gain to the Oregn 46Similar
Q2 13:20
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+13
95.0%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Royce Freeman for 13 yds to the OrgSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+28
95.2%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Brenden Schooler for 28 yds to the OrgSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
96.9%
Royce Freeman run for 13 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 10DOWNS
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+8
96.4%
Ryan Nall run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 18Similar
Q2 10:49
2ND & 2
OWN 18
-9
96.4%
OREGON ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-9 Yards) to the OrgSt 9Similar
Q2 10:49
2ND & 11
OWN 9
+9
96.5%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 9 yds to the OrgSt 18Similar
Q2 10:49
3RD & 2
OWN 18
0
96.4%
Thomas Tyner run for no gain to the OrgSt 18Similar
Q2 10:49
4TH & 2
OWN 18
+1
96.4%
Nick Porebski pass complete to Kee Whetzel for 1 yd to the OrgSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 11TD
1 play · 19 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
98.2%
Jaylon Redd run for 19 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 12INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
97.9%
Darell Garretson pass intercepted Thomas Graham Jr. return for 20 yds to the OrgSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 13TD
3 plays · 38 yds · 0:4998% → 99%
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
98.0%
Kani Benoit run for 20 yds to the OrgSt 18 OREGON Penalty, illegal block (-15 Yards) to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q2 8:32
1ST & 5
OPP 33
+27
98.0%
Kani Benoit run for 27 yds to the OrgSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
98.8%
Justin Herbert run for 6 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.9%
Ryan Nall run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q2 7:43
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
98.9%
Ryan Nall run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q2 7:43
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-2
98.9%
Ryan Nall run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q2 7:43
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+9
98.9%
Nick Porebski punt for 44 yds , Dillon Mitchell returns for 9 yds to the Oregn 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
99.0%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the Oregn 36Similar
Q2 5:32
2ND & 8
OWN 36
0
99.0%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Charles NelsonSimilar
Q2 5:32
3RD & 8
OWN 36
-2
99.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 34Similar
Q2 5:32
4TH & 10
OWN 34
0
98.9%
Adam Stack punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OrgSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
99.2%
Thomas Tyner run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 26Similar
Q2 4:02
2ND & 8
OWN 26
0
99.2%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Isaiah HodginsSimilar
Q2 4:02
3RD & 8
OWN 26
0
99.2%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Isaiah HodginsSimilar
Q2 4:02
4TH & 8
OWN 26
0
99.2%
Nick Porebski punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Dillon Mitchell at the Oregn 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 17TD
3 plays · 52 yds · 0:5299% → 99%
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
99.3%
Royce Freeman run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 46Similar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 12
OWN 46
+1
99.3%
Royce Freeman run for 1 yd to the Oregn 47Similar
Q2 2:13
3RD & 11
OWN 47
+53
99.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 53 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 18MISSED FG
15 plays · 38 yds · 1:521% → 1%
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
99.4%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Timmy HernandezSimilar
Q2 2:13
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+3
99.4%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Artavis Pierce for 3 yds to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q2 2:13
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+15
99.4%
OREGON Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Oregn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
99.3%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Trevorris Johnson for 9 yds to the Oregn 40Similar
Q2 2:13
2ND & 1
OPP 40
0
99.3%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Timmy Hernandez, broken up by Jalen JelksSimilar
Q2 2:13
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+1
99.3%
Trevorris Johnson run for 1 yd to the Oregn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
99.3%
Garretson, Darell pass incomplete to Togiai, Noah, PENALTY ORE pass interference 15 yards to the ORE24, 1ST DOWN OSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-6
99.3%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Xavier Hawkins for a loss of 6 yards to the Oregn 30Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 16
OPP 30
+2
99.6%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 2 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 14
OPP 28
-1
99.6%
Darell Garretson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 29Similar
Q2 0:21
4TH & 15
OPP 29
+47
99.5%
Jordan Choukair 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 19END OF HALF
3 plays · 21 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+22
99.5%
Royce Freeman run for 22 yds to the OrgSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
99.5%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-1
99.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-12
99.5%
OREGON ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-12 Yards) to the OrgSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
99.5%
Ryan Nall run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 13Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+1
99.5%
Thomas Tyner run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 14Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 14
+7
99.5%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 7 yds to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 21
0
99.5%
Nick Porebski punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Dillon Mitchell at the Oregn 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 21FG
17 plays · 55 yds · 5:16100% → 100%
Q3 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
99.6%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Oregn 40Similar
Q3 12:37
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
99.6%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Charles NelsonSimilar
Q3 12:37
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+16
99.6%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 16 yds to the OrgSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-3
99.6%
Kani Benoit run for a loss of 3 yards to the OrgSt 47Similar
Q3 12:37
2ND & 13
OPP 47
+12
99.6%
Taj Griffin run for 12 yds to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q3 12:37
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+2
99.6%
Kani Benoit run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
99.6%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Dillon MitchellSimilar
Q3 12:37
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+5
99.6%
Royce Freeman run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q3 12:37
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+6
99.6%
Taj Griffin run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
99.6%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Charles Nelson for 8 yds to the OrgSt 14Similar
Q3 12:37
2ND & 2
OPP 14
+4
99.6%
Justin Herbert run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-4
99.6%
Charles Nelson run for a loss of 4 yards to the OrgSt 14Similar
Q3 12:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
+7
99.6%
OREGON ST Penalty, personal foul (7 Yards) to the OrgSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
99.6%
Royce Freeman run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 8Similar
Q3 12:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
99.6%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
99.6%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Jaylon Redd, broken up by Omar Hicks-Onu OREGON Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 7:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
99.8%
Aidan Schneider 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 22INT TD
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:590% → 0%
Q3 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
99.8%
Ryan Nall run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 10Similar
Q3 7:21
2ND & 9
OWN 10
0
99.8%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Isaiah HodginsSimilar
Q3 6:22
3RD & 9
OWN 10
+11
99.9%
Darell Garretson pass intercepted for a TD Justin Hollins return for 11 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 23FG
11 plays · 69 yds · 2:510% → 0%
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.8%
OREGON Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the OrgSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
99.8%
Thomas Tyner run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q3 5:34
2ND & 9
OWN 31
-1
99.9%
Thomas Tyner run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q3 5:34
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+15
99.9%
OREGON Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the OrgSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+48
99.9%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 40 yds to the OREGON 15 for a 1ST down OREGON Penalty, roughing passer (8 Yards) to the Oregn 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
99.9%
Ryan Nall run for 2 yds to the Oregn 5Similar
Q3 5:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
99.8%
Ryan Nall run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 6Similar
Q3 5:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
99.9%
Mason Moran pass incomplete to Ryan NallSimilar
Q3 3:31
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
99.9%
Jordan Choukair 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 24PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 3:31100% → 100%
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
99.9%
Kani Benoit run for 10 yds to the Oregn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
99.9%
Kani Benoit run for 3 yds to the Oregn 35Similar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
99.9%
Kani Benoit run for no gain to the Oregn 35Similar
Q3 3:31
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+6
99.9%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 6 yds to the Oregn 41Similar
Q3 3:31
4TH & 1
OWN 41
+8
99.9%
Kani Benoit run for 8 yds to the Oregn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
99.9%
Kani Benoit run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+1
99.9%
Darrian Felix run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 48
-4
99.9%
Braxton Burmeister sacked by Kalani Vakameilalo for a loss of 4 yards to the Oregn 48Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 48
0
99.9%
Adam Stack punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Timmy Hernandez at the OrgSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
100.0%
Trevorris Johnson run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 15Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 8
OWN 15
-3
100.0%
Trevorris Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the OrgSt 12Similar
Q4 14:11
3RD & 11
OWN 12
0
100.0%
Mason Moran pass incomplete to Isaiah Hodgins, broken up by Juwaan WilliamsSimilar
Q4 14:11
4TH & 11
OWN 12
0
100.0%
Nick Porebski punt for 43 yds, downed at the Oregn 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 26TD
3 plays · 55 yds · 1:03100% → 100%
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
99.9%
Kani Benoit run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+2
99.9%
Taylor Alie run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 47Similar
Q4 11:24
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+47
99.9%
Kani Benoit run for 47 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
100.0%
Mason Moran run for no gain to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q4 11:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
100.0%
Artavis Pierce run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 26Similar
Q4 11:24
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-1
100.0%
Mason Moran run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q4 11:24
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
100.0%
Nick Porebski punt for 38 yds, downed at the Oregn 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 28PUNT
8 plays · -3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
99.9%
Felix, Darrian rush for loss of 5 yards to the ORE32 (Moore, Jalen), PENALTY OSU face mask 15 yards to the OSU48, 1ST DOWN ORE, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
99.9%
Darrian Felix run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 46Similar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 8
OPP 46
-13
99.9%
Taj Griffin run for 2 yds to the Oregn 44 OREGON Penalty, illegal block (-15 Yards) to the Oregn 41Similar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 21
OWN 41
-5
99.9%
OREGON Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 36Similar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 26
OWN 36
-13
99.9%
Taylor Alie pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 2 yds to the Oregn 38 OREGON Penalty, illegal block (-15 Yards) to the Oregn 23Similar
Q4 9:13
4TH & 28
OWN 34
-8
99.9%
Adam Stack punt for 43 yds , Timmy Hernandez returns for a loss of 8 yards to the OrgSt 15Similar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 39
OWN 23
+4
99.9%
Darrian Felix run for 4 yds to the Oregn 27Similar
Q4 9:13
3RD & 35
OWN 27
+7
99.9%
Taylor Alie pass complete to Darrian Felix for 7 yds to the Oregn 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 29END OF GAME
9 plays · 32 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-8
100.0%
OREGON ST Penalty, personal foul (-8 Yards) to the OrgSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+5
100.0%
Ryan Nall run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 12Similar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 5
OWN 12
+1
100.0%
Mason Moran run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 13Similar
Q4 5:02
3RD & 4
OWN 13
+9
100.0%
Artavis Pierce run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-4
100.0%
Xavier Hawkins run for a loss of 4 yards to the OrgSt 18Similar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 14
OWN 18
0
100.0%
Artavis Pierce run for no gain to the OrgSt 18Similar
Q4 5:02
3RD & 14
OWN 18
+24
100.0%
Artavis Pierce run for 24 yds to the OrgSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
100.0%
Artavis Pierce run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+2
100.0%
Artavis Pierce run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 0:51
Darell Garretson pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 43 yds for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK)
-2.1
TD · Q2 14:56
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 12 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)
+2.1
TD · Q2 8:49
Jaylon Redd run for 19 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)
+1.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com