Try the model
CAL

California 27 at UCLA 30

UCLA
2017 · Week 13 · Nov 24, 2017 · Rose Bowl
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UCLA
modelUCLA aheadCAL aheadconfidence bandkey playUCLA scoreCAL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGFGTDFGTDTDFGFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:35 · Patrick Laird run for 19 yds to the UCLA 2 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+25.0+12.50−12.5−25.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 121Pregame prior+10.9Home team on offense+6.3Garbage-time factor−0.8Score differential+2.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.2Blowout margin+0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:10: Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 17 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK) — UCLA win probability +7.4 pts (now 81%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:56: Ross Bowers run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ross Bowers pass to Patrick Laird for Two-Point Conversion) — CAL win probability +20.9 pts (now 43%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:35: Brandon Stephens run for 1 yd for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK) — UCLA win probability +13.1 pts (now 83%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:22: Ross Bowers pass complete to Jordan Veasy for 6 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK) — CAL win probability +37.3 pts (now 58%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:04: JJ Molson 37 yd FG GOOD — UCLA win probability +33.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCLA made the numbers' call on 6 of 9CAL made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 10:51CAL 4th & 10 at UCLA 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.3%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.4%
    58% to make
    Punt
    31.0%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:51UCLA 4th & 27 at UCLA 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.2%−0.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:36CAL 4th & 1 at CAL 32, tied
    Close callPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.9%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:55CAL 4th & 8 at UCLA 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.1%
    83% to make
    Punt
    31.4%−1.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:32CAL 4th & 5 at UCLA 17, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.9%
    80% to make
    Punt
    29.0%−3.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:25UCLA 4th & 1 at UCLA 32, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    66.7%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:45UCLA 4th & 8 at CAL 10, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.2%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.5%
    88% to make
    Punt
    64.8%−3.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:45CAL 4th & 6 at CAL 29, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.2%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:20CAL 4th & 10 at UCLA 20, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.7%
    75% to make
    Punt
    17.3%−3.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:00UCLA 4th & 15 at UCLA 48, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.3%−1.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 14:55UCLA 4th & 11 at UCLA 24, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.6%−2.0
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:36CAL 4th & 7 at CAL 42, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%−1.0
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:17UCLA 4th & 1 at UCLA 23, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 77.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.5%−1.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:35CAL 4th & 2 at UCLA 21, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    22.3%−1.2
    74% to make
    Punt
    14.0%−9.5
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:29CAL 4th & 13 at CAL 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.9%−2.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.3%
    average punt
  16. Q3 4:08UCLA 4th & 1 at UCLA 20, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.7 ptsPunted · 77.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.8%−2.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 15:00CAL 4th & 3 at UCLA 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    23.7%−1.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    12.4%−12.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 12:10UCLA 4th & 3 at CAL 9, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.4%−1.1
    89% to make
    Punt
    74.6%−10.9
    average punt
  19. Q4 8:35CAL 4th & 2 at UCLA 2, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.4%−3.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    4.8%−10.2
    average punt
  20. Q4 8:30UCLA 4th & 5 at UCLA 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.0%−0.8
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCLA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3CAL made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 0:39UCLA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:10UCLA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:56CAL Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    35.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    35.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:35UCLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:22CAL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.2%−1.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CALDrive 1MISSED FG
13 plays · 42 yds · 4:0125% → 26%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
74.9%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Kanawai NoaSimilar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+3
74.9%
Patrick Laird run for 3 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q1 14:52
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+12
74.9%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Jordan Veasy for 12 yds to the Cal 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
74.9%
Patrick Laird run for 8 yds to the UCLA 48Similar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+3
74.9%
Patrick Laird run for 3 yds to the UCLA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
74.9%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Vic Wharton IIISimilar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+16
74.9%
Patrick Laird run for 16 yds to the UCLA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-10
74.9%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Offensive holding (Jake Curhan) to the UCLA 39Similar
Q1 14:52
1ST & 20
OPP 39
+9
74.9%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Jordan Veasy for 9 yds to the UCLA 30Similar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 11
OPP 30
+1
74.9%
Patrick Laird run for 1 yd to the UCLA 29Similar
Q1 14:52
3RD & 10
OPP 29
0
74.9%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Patrick LairdSimilar
Q1 10:51
4TH & 10
OPP 29
+46
74.0%
Matt Anderson 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 2PUNT
7 plays · -4 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-12
74.1%
Josh Rosen sacked by Raymond Davison III for a loss of 12 yards to the UCLA 17Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 22
OWN 17
+6
74.0%
Soso Jamabo run for 6 yds to the UCLA 23Similar
Q1 10:51
3RD & 16
OWN 23
+19
73.9%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 19 yds to the UCLA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-12
74.4%
Jordan Lasley run for a loss of 12 yards to the UCLA 30Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 22
OWN 30
+6
74.1%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Theo Howard for 6 yds to the UCLA 36Similar
Q1 10:51
3RD & 16
OWN 36
-11
74.0%
Josh Rosen sacked by Alex Funches for a loss of 11 yards to the UCLA 25Similar
Q1 10:51
4TH & 27
OWN 25
+52
73.8%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Vic Wharton III at the CALIFORNIA 33 CALIFORNIA Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the Cal 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
73.1%
Patrick Laird run for 2 yds to the Cal 25Similar
Q1 7:36
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+4
73.1%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 4 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q1 7:36
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+3
73.1%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Patrick Laird for 3 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q1 7:36
4TH & 1
OWN 32
-2
73.3%
Dylan Klumph punt for 59 yds , Adarius Pickett returns for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 30 UCLA Penalty, Offensive holding (Octavius Spencer) to the UCLA 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 4FUMBLE
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-3
72.6%
Josh Rosen run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCLA 1 Josh Rosen fumbled, recovered by UCLA Josh RosenSimilar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 13
OWN 1
0
72.6%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Jordan LasleySimilar
Q1 5:33
3RD & 13
OWN 1
+15
72.2%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Soso Jamabo for 15 yds to the UCLA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
72.7%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 2 yds to the UCLA 18Similar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 8
OWN 18
-1
72.7%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 17 Bolu Olorunfunmi fumbled, forced by Elijah Hicks, recovered by Cal Jordan KunaszykSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 5FG
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5329% → 29%
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-5
70.8%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, false start (Addison Ooms) to the UCLA 22Similar
Q1 3:48
1ST & 15
OPP 22
0
70.9%
Ross Bowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:48
2ND & 15
OPP 22
+7
71.1%
Patrick Laird run for 7 yds to the UCLA 15Similar
Q1 3:48
3RD & 8
OPP 15
0
71.2%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Kanawai NoaSimilar
Q1 2:55
4TH & 8
OPP 15
+32
70.9%
Matt Anderson 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 6TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:1671% → 74%
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
70.8%
Soso Jamabo run for 18 yds to the UCLA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+25
71.7%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Wilson for 25 yds to the Cal 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
72.4%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 9 yds to the Cal 23Similar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 1
OPP 23
-3
72.4%
Soso Jamabo run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cal 26Similar
Q1 2:55
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+10
71.9%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 10 yds to the Cal 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
72.4%
Soso Jamabo run for 2 yds to the Cal 14Similar
Q1 0:39
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+14
74.4%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Theo Howard for 14 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 7FG
11 plays · 46 yds · 3:5927% → 29%
Q1 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
72.6%
Patrick Laird run for 1 yd to the Cal 38Similar
Q1 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+13
71.7%
Patrick Laird run for 13 yds to the UCLA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:31
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+15
72.5%
UCLA Penalty, personal foul (Boss Tagaloa) to the UCLA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
71.2%
Jeremiah Hawkins run for 4 yds to the UCLA 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+3
71.0%
Patrick Laird run for 3 yds to the UCLA 27Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+5
71.5%
Patrick Laird run for 5 yds to the UCLA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
71.0%
Patrick Laird run for 4 yds to the UCLA 18Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+1
71.0%
Derrick Clark run for 1 yd to the UCLA 17Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 17
0
71.6%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Kanawai Noa for no gain to the UCLA 17Similar
Q2 11:32
4TH & 5
OPP 17
+34
71.1%
Matt Anderson 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 8FG
14 plays · 67 yds · 3:4072% → 73%
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
71.8%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Soso JamaboSimilar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+2
71.6%
Brandon Stephens run for 2 yds to the UCLA 25Similar
Q2 11:25
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+3
71.0%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Brandon Stephens for 3 yds to the UCLA 28Similar
Q2 11:25
4TH & 5
OWN 28
+4
70.7%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, roughing the kicker (4 Yards) to the UCLA 32Similar
Q2 11:25
4TH & 1
OWN 32
+2
71.1%
Giovanni Gentosi run for 2 yds to the UCLA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
72.0%
Brandon Stephens run for no gain to the UCLA 34Similar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
71.8%
Josh Rosen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:25
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+17
71.2%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 17 yds to the Cal 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+37
73.3%
Brandon Stephens run for 37 yds to the Cal 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
73.7%
Josh Rosen run for 4 yds to the Cal 8Similar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 6
OPP 8
-2
73.7%
Brandon Stephens run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 10Similar
Q2 11:25
3RD & 8
OPP 10
0
73.1%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Jordan Wilson, broken up by Luke RubenzerSimilar
Q2 7:45
4TH & 8
OPP 10
+27
73.0%
JJ Molson 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
72.0%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 9 yds to the Cal 34Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
70.9%
Patrick Laird run for no gain to the Cal 34Similar
Q2 7:45
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-5
71.4%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, false start (Kamryn Bennett) to the Cal 29Similar
Q2 7:45
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
72.4%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Vic Wharton IIISimilar
Q2 7:45
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
73.2%
Dylan Klumph punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 10TD
3 plays · 50 yds · 0:4774% → 81%
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
50
0
74.2%
Brandon Stephens run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:57
2ND & 10
50
+33
73.9%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 33 yds to the Cal 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
81.3%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 17 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 11FG
15 plays · 59 yds · 3:4421% → 22%
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
79.5%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Patrick Laird for 8 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+1
78.8%
Patrick Laird run for 1 yd to the Cal 30Similar
Q2 5:04
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+2
79.2%
Patrick Laird run for 2 yds to the Cal 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
79.1%
Patrick Laird run for 7 yds to the Cal 39Similar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+4
78.3%
Patrick Laird run for 4 yds to the Cal 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+17
78.6%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 17 yds to the UCLA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
78.0%
Vic Enwere run for 8 yds to the UCLA 32Similar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+12
77.0%
Vic Enwere run for 12 yds to the UCLA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
77.0%
Vic Enwere run for 5 yds to the UCLA 15Similar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 5
OPP 15
-5
77.6%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, false start (Jake Curhan) to the UCLA 20Similar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
78.0%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Vic Wharton III, broken up by Mo Osling IIISimilar
Q2 1:41
3RD & 10
OPP 20
0
79.1%
Ross Bowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:20
4TH & 10
OPP 20
+37
77.6%
Matt Anderson 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 12PUNT
10 plays · 44 yds · 0:2078% → 78%
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+23
78.1%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Soso Jamabo for 23 yds to the UCLA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
78.9%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, personal foul (Ashtyn Davis) to the UCLA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
80.2%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 11 yds to the Cal 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-12
80.6%
Josh Rosen sacked by Alex Funches for a loss of 12 yards to the UCLA 41Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 22
OWN 41
0
79.4%
UCLA Penalty, intentional grounding (Josh Rosen) to the UCLA 41Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 22
OWN 41
+7
79.3%
Brandon Stephens run for 7 yds to the UCLA 48Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 15
OWN 48
0
78.6%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Theo HowardSimilar
Q2 1:00
4TH & 15
OWN 48
0
77.7%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Vic Wharton III at the Cal 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-1
78.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0081% → 79%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
80.5%
Devon Modster pass incomplete to Jordan Wilson, broken up by Raymond Davison IIISimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-11
80.3%
Brandon Stephens run for a loss of 11 yards to the UCLA 14Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 21
OWN 14
+10
79.4%
Devon Modster pass complete to Brandon Stephens for 10 yds to the UCLA 24Similar
Q3 14:55
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
78.7%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Vic Wharton III at the Cal 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0022% → 20%
Q3 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
78.3%
Patrick Laird run for 3 yds to the Cal 42Similar
Q3 13:36
2ND & 7
OWN 42
0
77.7%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Kanawai NoaSimilar
Q3 13:36
3RD & 7
OWN 42
0
78.9%
Patrick Laird run for no gain to the Cal 42Similar
Q3 13:36
4TH & 7
OWN 42
+6
79.9%
Dylan Klumph punt for 50 yds , Adarius Pickett returns for 6 yds to the UCLA 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0081% → 79%
Q3 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
80.5%
Brandon Stephens run for 3 yds to the UCLA 17Similar
Q3 12:17
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+2
80.5%
Brandon Stephens run for 2 yds to the UCLA 19Similar
Q3 12:17
3RD & 5
OWN 19
+4
79.7%
Devon Modster pass complete to Moses Robinson-Carr for 4 yds to the UCLA 23Similar
Q3 12:17
4TH & 1
OWN 23
+14
79.1%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 49 yds , Vic Wharton III returns for 14 yds to the Cal 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 17TD
7 plays · 58 yds · 1:3922% → 43%
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+29
78.4%
Patrick Laird run for 29 yds to the UCLA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
75.5%
Patrick Laird run for 7 yds to the UCLA 22Similar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 3
OPP 22
-10
75.5%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Offensive holding (Patrick Mekari) to the UCLA 32Similar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 13
OPP 32
+11
76.9%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 11 yds to the UCLA 21Similar
Q3 10:35
3RD & 2
OPP 21
0
76.9%
Ross Bowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:35
4TH & 2
OPP 21
+19
78.1%
Patrick Laird run for 19 yds to the UCLA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
57.2%
Ross Bowers run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ross Bowers pass to Patrick Laird for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 18TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:2165% → 83%
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
65.4%
Devon Modster pass complete to Theo Howard for 7 yds to the UCLA 32Similar
Q3 8:56
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+3
67.3%
Brandon Stephens run for 3 yds to the UCLA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
65.9%
Devon Modster pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:56
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+37
65.7%
Devon Modster pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 37 yds to the Cal 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+16
70.0%
Devon Modster pass complete to Eldridge Massington for 16 yds to the Cal 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
70.0%
Brandon Stephens run for 5 yds to the Cal 7Similar
Q3 8:56
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+6
70.0%
Devon Modster pass complete to Eldridge Massington for 6 yds to the Cal 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
83.2%
Brandon Stephens run for 1 yd for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:0024% → 22%
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
76.3%
Patrick Laird run for 9 yds to the Cal 44Similar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+4
74.0%
Patrick Laird run for 4 yds to the Cal 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
74.6%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Patrick Laird for a loss of 5 yards to the Cal 43Similar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 15
OWN 43
+2
76.9%
Patrick Laird run for 2 yds to the Cal 45Similar
Q3 6:29
3RD & 13
OWN 45
0
77.4%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Kanawai NoaSimilar
Q3 6:29
4TH & 13
OWN 45
0
78.4%
Dylan Klumph punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Adarius Pickett at the UCLA 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0081% → 79%
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
80.6%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 1 yd to the UCLA 12Similar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+8
80.4%
Devon Modster run for 8 yds to the UCLA 20Similar
Q3 4:08
3RD & 1
OWN 20
0
80.0%
Brandon Stephens run for no gain to the UCLA 20Similar
Q3 4:08
4TH & 1
OWN 20
0
78.7%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Vic Wharton III at the Cal 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 21DOWNS
8 plays · 30 yds · 2:2124% → 23%
Q3 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
76.2%
Patrick Laird run for 3 yds to the Cal 44Similar
Q3 2:21
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+10
75.2%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 10 yds to the UCLA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+20
74.5%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 20 yds to the UCLA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
72.3%
Patrick Laird run for 5 yds to the UCLA 21Similar
Q3 2:21
2ND & 5
OPP 21
-5
72.3%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the UCLA 26Similar
Q3 2:21
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+2
72.9%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 2 yds to the UCLA 24Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 24
+5
76.3%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 5 yds to the UCLA 19Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 19
-10
77.4%
Ross Bowers sacked by Jaelan Phillips for a loss of 10 yards to the UCLA 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 22FG
7 plays · 62 yds · 2:1385% → 87%
Q4 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+41
85.4%
Devon Modster pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 41 yds to the Cal 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:23
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
87.4%
Brandon Stephens run for 7 yds to the Cal 23Similar
Q4 14:23
2ND & 3
OPP 23
+7
87.4%
Brandon Stephens run for 7 yds to the Cal 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:23
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
87.4%
Devon Modster pass incomplete to Jordan Lasley, broken up by Quentin TartabullSimilar
Q4 14:23
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+3
87.4%
Brandon Stephens run for 3 yds to the Cal 13Similar
Q4 14:23
3RD & 7
OPP 13
+4
86.6%
Devon Modster pass complete to Christian Pabico for 4 yds to the Cal 9Similar
Q4 12:10
4TH & 3
OPP 9
+26
87.0%
JJ Molson 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 23FG
15 plays · 87 yds · 3:3013% → 20%
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+8
86.9%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 8 yds to the Cal 19Similar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 2
OWN 19
0
85.9%
Ross Bowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:05
3RD & 2
OWN 19
+16
87.4%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 16 yds to the Cal 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
85.6%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 14 yds to the Cal 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
83.8%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 12 yds to the UCLA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
83.5%
Ross Bowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+11
83.5%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Patrick Laird for 11 yds to the UCLA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+14
82.1%
Ross Bowers run for 14 yds to the UCLA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
82.1%
Patrick Laird run for 5 yds to the UCLA 9Similar
Q4 12:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
82.1%
Patrick Laird run for 3 yds to the UCLA 2Similar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+5
82.1%
UCLA Penalty, face mask (5 yards) (5 Yards) to the UCLA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
82.1%
Patrick Laird run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 5Similar
Q4 12:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
83.4%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Kanawai Noa, broken up by Mossi JohnsonSimilar
Q4 8:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
80.2%
Matt Anderson 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 27 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+22
86.6%
Devon Modster pass complete to Brandon Stephens for 22 yds to the UCLA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-6
87.1%
Devon Modster sacked by Jordan Kunaszyk for a loss of 6 yards to the UCLA 28Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 16
OWN 28
+5
86.5%
Devon Modster pass complete to Christian Pabico for 5 yds to the UCLA 33Similar
Q4 8:30
3RD & 11
OWN 33
+6
86.0%
Devon Modster pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 6 yds to the UCLA 39Similar
Q4 8:30
4TH & 5
OWN 39
+38
86.6%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CALIFORNIA 8 UCLA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the Cal 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 25TD
23 plays · 77 yds · 6:0817% → 58%
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+21
82.7%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 21 yds to the Cal 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+13
80.4%
Patrick Laird run for 13 yds to the UCLA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
78.9%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Vic Wharton IIISimilar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+11
79.1%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 11 yds to the UCLA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-3
77.1%
Patrick Laird run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCLA 35Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 13
OPP 35
-10
78.5%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Offensive holding (Jake Curhan) to the UCLA 45Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 23
OPP 45
+9
80.6%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 9 yds to the UCLA 36Similar
Q4 8:30
3RD & 14
OPP 36
+11
81.9%
UCLA Penalty, Defensive holding (Nate Meadors) to the UCLA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
76.5%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Patrick LairdSimilar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+16
77.2%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 16 yds to the UCLA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
76.5%
Ross Bowers run for 3 yds to the UCLA 6Similar
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+21
86.0%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 21 yds to the Cal 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+13
83.2%
Patrick Laird run for 13 yds to the UCLA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
81.8%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Vic Wharton IIISimilar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+11
82.0%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 11 yds to the UCLA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-3
80.2%
Patrick Laird run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCLA 35Similar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 13
OPP 35
-10
81.3%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Offensive holding (Jake Curhan) to the UCLA 45Similar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 23
OPP 45
+9
83.9%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 9 yds to the UCLA 36Similar
Q4 6:18
3RD & 14
OPP 36
+11
85.2%
UCLA Penalty, Defensive holding (Nate Meadors) to the UCLA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
79.7%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Patrick LairdSimilar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+16
80.3%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 16 yds to the UCLA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
79.7%
Ross Bowers run for 3 yds to the UCLA 6Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
42.4%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Jordan Veasy for 6 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 26FG
14 plays · 55 yds · 2:1858% → 96%
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
57.8%
Devon Modster pass complete to Theo Howard for 6 yds to the UCLA 31Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
60.5%
Devon Modster pass incomplete to Theo Howard, broken up by Elijah HicksSimilar
Q4 2:22
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+18
56.7%
Devon Modster pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 18 yds to the UCLA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
63.2%
Brandon Stephens run for 8 yds to the Cal 43Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+6
64.3%
Brandon Stephens run for 6 yds to the Cal 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
64.2%
Devon Modster pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 9 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+3
65.7%
Devon Modster run for 3 yds to the Cal 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
65.3%
Brandon Stephens run for 2 yds to the Cal 23Similar
Q4 0:46
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+3
65.3%
Brandon Stephens run for 3 yds to the Cal 20Similar
Q4 0:04
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+37
95.8%
JJ Molson 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 27FUMBLE
2 plays · 13 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q4 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+13
79.3%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Patrick Laird for 13 yds Patrick Laird fumbled, recovered by UCLA Kenny YoungSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:22
Ross Bowers pass complete to Jordan Veasy for 6 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)
-37.3
FG · Q4 0:04
JJ Molson 37 yd FG GOOD
+33.2
TD · Q3 8:56
Ross Bowers run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ross Bowers pass to Patrick Laird for Two-Point Conversion)
-20.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com