2017 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2017 · Stanford Stadium
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Win probability · STAN
modelSTAN aheadCAL aheadconfidence bandkey playSTAN scoreCAL score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:20 · Jet Toner 42 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- FG · Q2 2:43: Matt Anderson 26 yd FG GOOD — CAL win probability +3.3 pts (now 23%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- TD · Q3 8:57: Bryce Love run for 57 yds for a TD, (Jet Toner KICK) — STAN win probability +9.6 pts (now 89%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:02: Patrick Laird run for 1 yd for a TD, (R. Bowers Run For Two-point Conversion) — CAL win probability +16.7 pts (now 31%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- INT · Q4 11:13: Ross Bowers pass intercepted Ben Edwards return for 29 yds to the Stanf 35 — CAL win probability +7.0 pts (now 34%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 7:25: Cameron Scarlett run for 2 yds to the Stanf 37 — STAN win probability +8.7 pts (now 75%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
STAN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5CAL made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
- Q1 11:20STAN 4th & 7 at CAL 26, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.8% before the snapGo for it81.7%−<0.136% to convertField goalTheir call81.8%64% to makePunt81.4%−0.4average punt
- Q1 6:16CAL 4th & 26 at STAN 27, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.0% before the snapGo for it18.4%−0.57% to convertField goalTheir call18.9%62% to makePunt17.9%−1.0average punt
- Q1 3:39STAN 4th & 10 at CAL 45, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 79.0% before the snapGo for it79.0%−0.130% to convertField goal78.9%−0.325% to makePuntTheir call79.1%average punt
- Q1 2:37CAL 4th & 1 at STAN 38, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call21.9%70% to convertField goal21.3%−0.638% to makePunt21.3%−0.6average punt
- Q2 14:20CAL 4th & 6 at STAN 30, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 23.2% before the snapGo for it23.1%40% to convertField goalTheir call23.1%−<0.156% to makePunt22.7%−0.5average punt
- Q2 8:17CAL 4th & 2 at CAL 45, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call19.4%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt18.8%−0.6average punt
- Q2 2:43CAL 4th & 7 at STAN 9, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.0% before the snapGo for it19.1%−0.230% to convertField goalTheir call19.3%89% to makePunt14.7%−4.6average punt
- Q2 2:30STAN 4th & 2 at CAL 41, up 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call77.5%57% to convertField goal76.5%−1.032% to makePunt76.4%−1.1average punt
- Q3 15:00CAL 4th & 4 at STAN 44, down 4Close callPunted · 25.1% before the snapGo for it25.5%48% to convertField goal23.9%−1.627% to makePuntTheir call25.1%−0.4average punt
- Q4 11:13STAN 4th & 6 at CAL 24, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.5% before the snapGo for it74.2%−0.239% to convertField goalTheir call74.4%68% to makePunt61.2%−13.1average punt
- Q4 2:19STAN 4th & 1 at CAL 18, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call86.9%71% to convertField goal80.1%−6.879% to makePunt62.6%−24.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
STAN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2CAL made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
- Q2 8:17STAN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call80.7%97% to makeGo for two80.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:57STAN Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.2%97% to makeGo for two86.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:02CAL Touchdown, down 5 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick25.5%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call25.3%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSTANDrive 1FG8 plays · 49 yds · 3:4086% → 86%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
86.3%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 4 yds to the Stanf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+33
86.3%
K.J. Costello pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 33 yds to the Cal 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 26
0
86.3%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside, broken up by Camryn BynumSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 2FG12 plays · 48 yds · 5:0415% → 16%
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
85.5%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 10 yds to the Cal 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+23
85.4%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Jordan Veasy for 23 yds to the Stanf 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 12
OPP 31
+20
85.4%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Patrick Laird for 20 yds to the Stanf 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
85.2%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 4 yds to the Stanf 7Similar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 15
OPP 16
-11
85.4%
Ross Bowers sacked by Peter Kalambayi for a loss of 11 yards to the Stanf 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 3PUNT11 plays · 30 yds · 2:3784% → 82%
Q1 6:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+20
83.5%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 20 yds to the Stanf 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
83.4%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Trenton Irwin, broken up by Gerran BrownSimilar
Q1 3:39
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
82.4%
Jake Bailey punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Vic Wharton III at the Cal 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 4MISSED FG10 plays · 64 yds · 3:1718% → 20%
Q1 2:37
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+9
81.0%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 9 yds to the Stanf 38Similar
Q1 2:37
2ND & 15
OPP 39
+2
81.2%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Jeremiah Hawkins for 2 yds to the Stanf 37Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 37
+7
80.3%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Patrick Laird for 7 yds to the Stanf 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 5TD12 plays · 70 yds · 6:0381% → 85%
Q2 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+7
81.5%
K.J. Costello pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 7 yds to the Stanf 48Similar
Q2 14:20
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+6
81.7%
K.J. Costello pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 6 yds to the Cal 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+15
82.2%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 15 yds to the Cal 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
82.4%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside, broken up by Camryn BynumSimilar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 15
OPP 34
+15
81.8%
Costello,K pass incomplete to A.-Whiteside,JJ (Allensworth, Da), PENALTY CAL pass interference (Allensworth, Da) 15 yards to the CAL19, 1ST DOWN STAN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
82.4%
K.J. Costello pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 2 yds to the Cal 17Similar
Q2 8:17
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+17
84.8%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Kaden Smith for 17 yds for a TD, (Jet Toner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 6FG17 plays · 66 yds · 5:3417% → 23%
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
83.2%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 12 yds to the Cal 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
82.7%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 4 yds to the Cal 41Similar
Q2 8:17
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+11
80.9%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Patrick Laird for 11 yds to the Stanf 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
80.9%
Bowers, Ross pass incomplete to Hawkins, Jeremi (Antoine,M), PENALTY STAN offside (Tyler,M) 5 yards to the STAN19, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 7INT12 plays · 45 yds · 0:0580% → 81%
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+13
80.1%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Kaden Smith for 13 yds to the Stanf 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+6
81.8%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Donald Stewart for 6 yds to the Cal 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
81.9%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Trenton Irwin, broken up by Camryn BynumSimilar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+8
81.6%
K.J. Costello pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 8 yds to the Cal 41Similar
Q2 2:30
4TH & 2
OPP 41
0
80.6%
K.J. Costello pass intercepted Darius Allensworth return for no gain to the Cal 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 8PUNT11 plays · 31 yds · 0:0022% → 23%
STANDrive 9TD4 plays · 79 yds · 2:1080% → 89%
Q3 11:07
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+15
79.0%
K.J. Costello pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 15 yds to the Stanf 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 10TD12 plays · 75 yds · 4:5513% → 31%
Q3 8:57
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
86.9%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 10 yds to the Cal 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
86.4%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Vic Wharton III, broken up by Quenton MeeksSimilar
Q3 8:57
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+9
86.6%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Jordan Veasy for 9 yds to the Cal 45Similar
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-10
85.7%
Bowers, Ross rush for 3 yards to the 50 yardline, out-of-bounds (Phillips,H), PENALTY CAL holding (Curhan, Jake) 10 yards to the CAL37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
85.3%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Zion Echols for 2 yds to the Stanf 40Similar
Q3 8:57
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+39
85.3%
Patrick Laird run for 39 yds to the Stanf 1 Patrick Laird fumbled, forced by Ben Edwards, recovered by Cal for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
68.6%
Patrick Laird run for 1 yd for a TD, (R. Bowers Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 11MISSED FG16 plays · 49 yds · 7:4075% → 76%
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
77.1%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 9 yds to the Cal 45Similar
Q3 3:53
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+8
77.1%
K.J. Costello pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 8 yds to the Cal 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+13
78.9%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Kaden Smith for 13 yds to the Cal 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
79.9%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Daniel Marx for 7 yds to the Cal 20Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 3
OPP 20
-8
79.9%
Bryce Love run for 7 yds to the Cal 13 STANFORD Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the Cal 28Similar
Q4 14:16
3RD & 6
OPP 24
0
78.7%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside, broken up by Elijah HicksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 12INT9 plays · 28 yds · 0:0028% → 34%
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
71.8%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 7 yds to the Cal 31Similar
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
70.4%
Bowers, Ross pass incomplete to Laird, Patrick, PENALTY CAL holding (Bennett, Kamryn) 10 yards to the CAL25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 18
OWN 27
+12
72.7%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Jordan Veasy for 12 yds to the Cal 39Similar
Q4 11:13
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+18
73.3%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Jordan Veasy for 18 yds to the Stanf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+29
66.4%
Ross Bowers pass intercepted Ben Edwards return for 29 yds to the Stanf 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 13END OF GAME18 plays · 46 yds · 5:0675% → 90%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:02
Patrick Laird run for 1 yd for a TD, (R. Bowers Run For Two-point Conversion)
-16.7
TD · Q3 8:57
Bryce Love run for 57 yds for a TD, (Jet Toner KICK)
+9.6
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+9.6