Try the model
UCLA

UCLA 23 at USC 28

USC
2017 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2017 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadUCLA aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreUCLA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:02 · Sam Darnold run for 4 yds to the UCLA 28 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 71Pregame prior+22.4Home team on offense+5.6Garbage-time factor+1.6Score differential+1.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.2Blowout margin−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 2:57: Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 9 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK) — UCLA win probability +13.9 pts (now 24%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  2. FG · Q4 10:19: JJ Molson 26 yd FG GOOD — UCLA win probability +9.7 pts (now 28%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 5:19: Ronald Jones II run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK) — USC win probability +7.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:43: Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 27 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — UCLA win probability +19.5 pts (now 26%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:36: Ronald Jones II run for 8 yds to the UCLA 41 — USC win probability +9.2 pts (now 91%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 6 of 7UCLA made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 11:43USC 4th & 2 at UCLA 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 82.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    82.5%−0.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    82.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:12UCLA 4th & 7 at UCLA 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:00UCLA 4th & 10 at USC 35, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.9%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    17.9%
    45% to make
    Punt
    17.7%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:24UCLA 4th & 19 at USC 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.9%−0.9
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.8%
    56% to make
    Punt
    17.3%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:43USC 4th & 18 at USC 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.2%−1.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:27UCLA 4th & 10 at USC 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    17.8%−0.2
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    18.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:02USC 4th & 3 at UCLA 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.3%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    81.7%−0.6
    51% to make
    Punt
    81.1%−1.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:49USC 4th & 8 at UCLA 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    81.7%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    81.2%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:36USC 4th & 11 at USC 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.5%−1.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:42UCLA 4th & 29 at UCLA 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.3%−3.4
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:30USC 4th & 12 at USC 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.7%−2.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:46UCLA 4th & 10 at UCLA 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%−2.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:11USC 4th & 29 at UCLA 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.8%−3.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:19UCLA 4th & 4 at USC 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%−1.3
    43% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.3%
    89% to make
    Punt
    5.3%−13.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 2 of 3UCLA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 6:48UCLA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:08USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:32USC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:57UCLA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:19USC Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.6%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.7%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:43UCLA Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    12.7%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    12.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 2:4785% → 84%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
84.6%
Ronald Jones II run for 6 yds to the USC 32Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+6
84.5%
Ronald Jones II run for 6 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
84.4%
Ronald Jones II run for 11 yds to the USC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
84.4%
USC Penalty, False Start (Chuma Edoga) to the USC 44Similar
Q1 13:10
1ST & 15
OWN 44
+2
84.3%
Ronald Jones II run for 2 yds to the USC 46Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 13
OWN 46
+11
84.1%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 11 yds to the UCLA 43Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 2
OPP 43
0
84.1%
Ronald Jones II run for no gain to the UCLA 43Similar
Q1 11:43
4TH & 2
OPP 43
0
83.9%
Reid Budrovich punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Adarius Pickett at the UCLA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 2PUNT RETURN TD
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:1816% → 16%
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
83.7%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 2 yds to the UCLA 12Similar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+3
83.6%
Jordan Lasley run for 3 yds to the UCLA 15Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 5
OWN 15
+6
83.5%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Wilson for 6 yds to the UCLA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
83.1%
Rosen, Josh pass complete to Lasley, Jordan for 53 yards to the USC26, PENALTY UCLA ineligible downfield on pass (Tagaloa, Boss) 5 yards to the UCLA16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 15
OWN 16
+8
83.1%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Theo Howard for 8 yds to the UCLA 24Similar
Q1 9:32
2ND & 7
OWN 24
0
83.1%
Josh Rosen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:28
3RD & 7
OWN 24
0
83.2%
Josh Rosen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:12
4TH & 7
OWN 24
+72
84.4%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 48 yds , Michael Pittman Jr. returns for 72 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 3TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 2:0716% → 19%
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
84.1%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Bolu Olorunfunmi for 7 yds to the UCLA 27Similar
Q1 8:38
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+4
84.0%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 4 yds to the UCLA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+41
84.1%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 41 yds to the USC 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
83.5%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (Bolu Olorunfunmi) to the USC 33Similar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 15
OPP 33
+7
83.6%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 7 yds to the USC 26Similar
Q1 7:07
2ND & 8
OPP 26
0
83.3%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Theo HowardSimilar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 8
OPP 26
+15
83.6%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Austin Roberts for 15 yds to the USC 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
81.4%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 11 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 4TD
7 plays · 56 yds · 1:5282% → 84%
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
82.4%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Petite for 4 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+5
82.3%
Ronald Jones II run for 5 yds to the UCLA 47Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+7
82.1%
Ronald Jones II run for 7 yds to the UCLA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+23
82.2%
Ronald Jones II run for 23 yds to the UCLA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+15
82.3%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 15 yds to the UCLA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
84.4%
Ronald Jones II run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 5MISSED FG
17 plays · 44 yds · 5:2116% → 17%
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
83.6%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Austin Roberts for 4 yds to the UCLA 30Similar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+5
83.5%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 5 yds to the UCLA 35Similar
Q1 3:10
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+2
83.3%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 2 yds to the UCLA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-7
83.2%
Josh Rosen sacked by Josh Fatu for a loss of 7 yards to the UCLA 30Similar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 17
OWN 30
+5
83.3%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Theo Howard for 5 yds to the UCLA 35Similar
Q1 1:25
3RD & 12
OWN 35
+30
83.4%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Theo Howard for 30 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
81.9%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Austin RobertsSimilar
Q1 0:50
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+5
81.8%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Theo Howard for 5 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q1 0:33
3RD & 5
OPP 30
-5
82.1%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (Austin Roberts) to the USC 35Similar
Q1 0:11
3RD & 10
OPP 35
0
82.4%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Theo HowardSimilar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 10
OPP 35
+14
83.1%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 14 yds to the USC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-9
81.5%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 6 yds to the USC 15 UCLA Penalty, Clipping (-15 Yards) to the USC 30Similar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 19
OPP 30
-5
81.8%
Christian Pabico run for a loss of 5 yards to the USC 35Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 24
OPP 35
+5
81.9%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Theo Howard for 5 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q2 13:29
3RD & 19
OPP 30
0
82.6%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Theo HowardSimilar
Q2 13:24
4TH & 19
OPP 30
+47
83.2%
JJ Molson 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 2:0783% → 82%
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
83.1%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 12 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
83.7%
Ronald Jones II run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 41Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+12
83.4%
Ronald Jones II run for 12 yds to the UCLA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
83.8%
Sam Darnold run for 5 yds to the UCLA 42Similar
Q2 11:37
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+2
83.9%
Stephen Carr run for 2 yds to the UCLA 40Similar
Q2 11:10
3RD & 3
OPP 40
0
83.5%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Deontay BurnettSimilar
Q2 11:00
4TH & 3
OPP 40
-15
83.0%
Darnold, Sam pass complete to Mitchell Jr., Steven for 11 yards to the UCLA29, PENALTY USC pass interference (Mitchell Jr., Steven) 15 yards to the USC45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:43
4TH & 18
OWN 45
0
82.0%
Reid Budrovich punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCLA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 31 yds · 0:5918% → 18%
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+31
82.2%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 31 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
81.1%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Giovanni GentosiSimilar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
81.1%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for no gain to the USC 39Similar
Q2 9:35
3RD & 10
OPP 39
0
81.8%
Josh Rosen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:27
4TH & 10
OPP 39
0
82.5%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 8INT
16 plays · 50 yds · 5:1183% → 82%
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
82.8%
Ronald Jones II run for 4 yds to the USC 24Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+22
82.3%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Ronald Jones II for 22 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
83.9%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 15 yds to the UCLA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
84.0%
Vavae Malepeai run for 2 yds to the UCLA 37Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 8
OPP 37
0
83.9%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Josh FaloSimilar
Q2 6:33
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+5
83.4%
Ronald Jones II run for 5 yds to the UCLA 32Similar
Q2 6:02
4TH & 3
OPP 32
+4
82.8%
Sam Darnold run for 4 yds to the UCLA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
84.0%
Ronald Jones II run for 4 yds to the UCLA 24Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 6
OPP 17
-8
84.0%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 7 yds to the UCLA 17 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Personal Foul (Chuma Edoga) to the UCLA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
84.0%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Steven Mitchell Jr.Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+2
83.6%
Ronald Jones II run for 2 yds to the UCLA 30Similar
Q2 4:02
3RD & 8
OPP 30
0
83.2%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Deontay BurnettSimilar
Q2 3:49
4TH & 8
OPP 35
+39
82.3%
Sam Darnold pass intercepted Jaleel Wadood return for 24 yds to the UCLA 6 UCLA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the UCLA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 9FUMBLE
12 plays · 49 yds · 2:3818% → 22%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
82.2%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 1 yd to the UCLA 21Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+10
82.3%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Austin Roberts for 10 yds to the UCLA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
81.6%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 12 yds to the UCLA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
81.0%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Theo Howard for 5 yds to the UCLA 48Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+7
80.3%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Theo Howard for 7 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
79.7%
Soso Jamabo run for 7 yds to the USC 38Similar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+11
79.1%
Soso Jamabo run for 11 yds to the USC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-2
78.2%
Soso Jamabo run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 29Similar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 12
OPP 29
0
78.9%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Theo HowardSimilar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 12
OPP 29
+12
80.4%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Christian Pabico for 12 yds to the USC 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
78.0%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Austin RobertsSimilar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+9
78.1%
Josh Rosen sacked by Malik Dorton for a loss of 14 yards to the USC 40 Josh Rosen fumbled, forced by Malik Dorton, recovered by USC John Houston Jr. , return for 9 yds to the USC 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 10END OF HALF
5 plays · 55 yds · 0:3083% → 85%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
82.9%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 15 yds to the UCLA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
83.4%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 6 yds to the UCLA 39Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+25
84.1%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 25 yds to the UCLA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+9
84.5%
Sam Darnold run for 9 yds to the UCLA 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 11INT
15 plays · 55 yds · 4:0619% → 21%
Q3 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
81.3%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 6 yds to the UCLA 37Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+2
80.2%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 2 yds to the UCLA 39Similar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+7
80.3%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 7 yds to the UCLA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
80.0%
Josh Rosen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-3
80.4%
Theo Howard run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCLA 43Similar
Q3 12:50
3RD & 13
OWN 43
-5
81.8%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (Andre James) to the UCLA 38Similar
Q3 12:15
3RD & 18
OWN 38
+25
81.8%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Soso Jamabo for 25 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+10
79.2%
Rosen, Josh pass incomplete to Lasley, Jordan, PENALTY USC holding (Jones, Jack) 10 yards to the USC27, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UCLA.Similar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-7
77.7%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Theo Howard for 3 yds to the USC 24 UCLA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the USC 34Similar
Q3 11:42
1ST & 17
OPP 34
+5
78.8%
USC Penalty, Defensive Offside (Uchenna Nwosu) to the USC 29Similar
Q3 11:20
1ST & 12
OPP 29
+16
77.9%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Soso Jamabo for 16 yds to the USC 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
77.5%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Christian PabicoSimilar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 10
OPP 13
-1
77.5%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Theo Howard for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 14Similar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 11
OPP 14
+27
79.1%
Josh Rosen pass intercepted Marvell Tell III return for 27 yds to the USC 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:4082% → 82%
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
82.1%
Ronald Jones II run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 26Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 11
OWN 26
0
83.0%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:44
3RD & 11
OWN 26
0
82.3%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Daniel ImatorbhebheSimilar
Q3 9:36
4TH & 11
OWN 26
0
81.5%
Reid Budrovich punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Adarius Pickett at the UCLA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -19 yds · 1:4919% → 17%
Q3 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
80.6%
Josh Rosen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-7
80.8%
Josh Rosen sacked by Chris Hawkins for a loss of 7 yards to the UCLA 27Similar
Q3 8:35
3RD & 17
OWN 27
-5
82.2%
UCLA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the UCLA 22Similar
Q3 8:20
3RD & 22
OWN 22
-7
82.1%
Josh Rosen sacked by Uchenna Nwosu for a loss of 7 yards to the UCLA 15Similar
Q3 7:42
4TH & 29
OWN 15
+17
82.6%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 46 yds , Ajene Harris returns for 17 yds to the UCLA 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 14TD
5 plays · 44 yds · 1:5386% → 92%
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+18
85.8%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 18 yds to the UCLA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
86.0%
Ronald Jones II run for 1 yd to the UCLA 25Similar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+20
86.0%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Stephen Carr for 20 yds to the UCLA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
86.0%
Ronald Jones II run for 4 yds to the UCLA 1Similar
Q3 5:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.4%
Sam Darnold run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 15TD
8 plays · 79 yds · 2:1310% → 24%
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
90.1%
Soso Jamabo run for 3 yds to the UCLA 24Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+21
90.6%
Soso Jamabo run for 21 yds to the UCLA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
89.6%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 8 yds to the USC 47Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+1
89.4%
Brandon Stephens run for 1 yd to the USC 46Similar
Q3 3:45
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+2
89.5%
Soso Jamabo run for 2 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+35
89.8%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Austin Roberts for 35 yds to the USC 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
75.9%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 9 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 1:0585% → 82%
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
84.8%
Steven Mitchell Jr. run for 10 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
86.2%
Ronald Jones II run for 3 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q3 1:42
2ND & 7
OWN 48
0
86.3%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Steven Mitchell Jr.Similar
Q3 1:36
3RD & 7
OWN 48
0
84.6%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Daniel ImatorbhebheSimilar
Q3 1:36
4TH & 7
OWN 48
-5
83.2%
USC Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the USC 43Similar
Q3 1:30
4TH & 12
OWN 43
0
82.4%
Reid Budrovich punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Adarius Pickett at the UCLA 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:3419% → 17%
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
81.2%
Soso Jamabo run for no gain to the UCLA 22Similar
Q3 0:58
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
81.5%
Josh Rosen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:53
3RD & 10
OWN 22
0
82.4%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Christian PabicoSimilar
Q3 0:46
4TH & 10
OWN 22
0
83.5%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USC 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 2:2486% → 86%
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+18
85.5%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Daniel Imatorbhebhe for 18 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
88.0%
Ronald Jones II run for 1 yd to the USC 49Similar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+22
87.7%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 22 yds to the UCLA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
88.5%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-10
89.0%
Jones II, Ronald rush for 5 yards to the UCLA24, PENALTY USC holding 10 yards to the UCLA39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:56
2ND & 20
OPP 39
0
88.1%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:20
3RD & 20
OPP 39
-9
87.4%
Sam Darnold sacked by Kenny Young for a loss of 9 yards to the UCLA 48Similar
Q4 13:11
4TH & 29
OPP 48
0
86.1%
Reid Budrovich punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Adarius Pickett at the UCLA 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 19FG
9 plays · 77 yds · 2:3115% → 28%
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+17
84.8%
Soso Jamabo run for 17 yds to the UCLA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+43
83.8%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 43 yds to the USC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
79.7%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Austin RobertsSimilar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+8
80.4%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 8 yds to the USC 18Similar
Q4 11:40
3RD & 2
OPP 18
+3
81.5%
Soso Jamabo run for 3 yds to the USC 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
79.6%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Christian PabicoSimilar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+1
79.6%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Austin Roberts for 1 yd to the USC 14Similar
Q4 10:34
3RD & 9
OPP 14
+5
82.2%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Austin Roberts for 5 yds to the USC 9Similar
Q4 10:19
4TH & 4
OPP 9
+26
72.5%
JJ Molson 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 20TD
12 plays · 90 yds · 4:4176% → 95%
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
76.1%
Ronald Jones II run for 4 yds to the USC 14Similar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+4
76.0%
Ronald Jones II run for 4 yds to the USC 18Similar
Q4 8:57
3RD & 2
OWN 18
+10
74.5%
Darnold, Sam pass incomplete, PENALTY UCLA holding (Holmes, Darnay) 10 yards to the USC28, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN USC.Similar
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
77.1%
Ronald Jones II run for 3 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+29
79.1%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Stephen Carr for 29 yds to the UCLA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
83.7%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 6 yds to the UCLA 34Similar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+5
84.2%
Vavae Malepeai run for 5 yds to the UCLA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+16
84.2%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Daniel Imatorbhebhe for 16 yds to the UCLA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+9
86.1%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 9 yds to the UCLA 4Similar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 1
OPP 4
+2
87.8%
Ronald Jones II run for 2 yds to the UCLA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
95.2%
Ronald Jones II run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 21TD
11 plays · 61 yds · 2:157% → 26%
Q4 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
92.7%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 12 yds to the USC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
92.2%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Theo HowardSimilar
Q4 4:22
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+6
92.7%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Theo Howard for 6 yds to the USC 43Similar
Q4 4:00
3RD & 4
OPP 43
-5
92.9%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USC 48Similar
Q4 3:53
3RD & 9
OPP 48
0
93.0%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Jordan LasleySimilar
Q4 3:45
4TH & 9
OPP 48
+10
94.0%
Rosen, Josh pass incomplete to Lasley, Jordan, PENALTY USC holding (Langley, Isaiah) 10 yards to the USC38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UCLA.Similar
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
94.3%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Theo Howard for 8 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+1
93.5%
Josh Rosen run for 1 yd to the USC 29Similar
Q4 2:58
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+2
93.8%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 2 yds to the USC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
74.3%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 27 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 22END OF GAME
10 plays · 7 yds · 2:3691% → 96%
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
91.1%
Ronald Jones II run for 8 yds to the UCLA 41Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+1
92.9%
Ronald Jones II run for 1 yd to the UCLA 40Similar
Q4 2:10
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+2
94.0%
Ronald Jones II run for 2 yds to the UCLA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
95.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 39Similar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 11
OPP 39
-2
95.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 41Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 13
OPP 41
-1
96.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:43
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 27 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-19.5
TD · Q3 2:57
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 9 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)
-13.9
FG · Q4 10:19
JJ Molson 26 yd FG GOOD
-9.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com