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ASU

Arizona State 40 at Oregon State 24

ORST
2017 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2017 · Reser Stadium
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Win probability · ORST
modelORST aheadASU aheadconfidence bandkey playORST scoreASU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDSAFETYTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:22 · Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Timmy Hernandez at the OREGONST 31 OREGON ST Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the OrgSt 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 155Home team on offense−36.6Score differential−19.1Pregame prior−2.8Garbage-time factor−10.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−5.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:54: Demario Richard run for 17 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK) — ASU win probability +5.2 pts (now 83%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:44: Demario Richard run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK) — ASU win probability +2.1 pts (now 89%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:59: Ryan Nall run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK) — ORST win probability +9.9 pts (now 16%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 5:58: Brandon Ruiz 45 yd FG GOOD — ASU win probability +4.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:27: Darell Garretson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK) — ORST win probability +5.6 pts (now 8%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORST made the numbers' call on 6 of 8ASU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 13:44ORST 4th & 6 at ORST 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:53ORST 4th & 10 at ASU 38, down 14
    Close callPunted · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    30.4%−0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    30.3%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:51ASU 4th & 5 at ORST 40, up 14
    Close callPunted · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    70.6%−0.5
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    70.8%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:49ORST 4th & 23 at ORST 10, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%−2.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:09ASU 4th & 6 at ASU 41, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.1%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:37ORST 4th & 8 at ORST 19, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.5%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:17ASU 4th & 12 at ASU 41, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.6%−0.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:54ORST 4th & 9 at ASU 45, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    13.4%−2.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    15.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:58ASU 4th & 3 at ORST 27, up 23
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.3%−0.3
    62% to make
    Punt
    93.0%−2.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:33ORST 4th & 3 at ASU 13, down 26
    Close callKicked a field goal · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.9%−0.3
    85% to make
    Punt
    -1.6%−2.7
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:58ORST 4th & 1 at ASU 1, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−0.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:22ASU 4th & 6 at ASU 26, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.7%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:17ORST 4th & 5 at ORST 49, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.5%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ASU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 13:44ASU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:06ASU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:54ASU Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:44ASU Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:59ORST Touchdown, down 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:36ASU Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:58ORST Touchdown, down 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:27ORST Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ASUDrive 1TD
5 plays · 69 yds · 1:1672% → 72%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+28
28.1%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Frank Darby for 28 yds to the OrgSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
28.1%
Demario Richard run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+16
28.1%
Demario Richard run for 16 yds to the OrgSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
28.2%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 23 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
28.3%
Ryan Nall run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q1 13:44
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
28.3%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Noah Togiai for 1 yd to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q1 13:44
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
28.3%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Jordan Villamin for no gain to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q1 13:44
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
28.2%
Alex Bland punt for 42 yds, downed at the ArzSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 3TD
8 plays · 71 yds · 2:5172% → 73%
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
28.5%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Kyle WilliamsSimilar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+18
28.5%
Demario Richard run for 18 yds to the ArzSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
28.3%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Curtis Hodges for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 46Similar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+3
28.4%
Demario Richard run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 49Similar
Q1 11:57
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+42
28.3%
Manny Wilkins run for 32 yds to the OREGONST 19 for a 1ST down OREGON ST Penalty, personal foul (Bright Ugwoegbu) to the OrgSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
28.2%
Kalen Ballage run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 8Similar
Q1 11:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
28.2%
Kyle Williams run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 1Similar
Q1 9:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
27.0%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Curtis Hodges for 1 yd for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 4PUNT
10 plays · 47 yds · 3:0627% → 27%
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
27.0%
Ryan Nall run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 22Similar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+24
27.1%
Darell Garretson run for 24 yds to the OrgSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+16
27.5%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 1 yd to the ArzSt 47 for a 1ST down ARIZONA ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Chase Lucas) to the ArzSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
27.5%
Thomas Tyner run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 39Similar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 11
OPP 39
+4
27.5%
Ryan Nall run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 35Similar
Q1 5:53
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+2
26.9%
Ryan Nall run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 33Similar
Q1 5:53
4TH & 5
OPP 33
-5
26.8%
OREGON ST Penalty, false start (Fred Lauina) to the ArzSt 38Similar
Q1 5:53
4TH & 10
OPP 38
0
26.6%
Alex Bland punt for 26 yds, fair catch by N'Keal Harry at the ArzSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 48 yds · 0:0074% → 75%
Q1 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+9
25.6%
Kalen Ballage run for 9 yds to the ArzSt 21Similar
Q1 4:51
2ND & 1
OWN 21
+7
25.4%
Kalen Ballage run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
25.4%
Kalen Ballage run for 15 yds to the ArzSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+12
25.1%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Frank Darby for 12 yds to the OrgSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
25.1%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Frank Darby for 9 yds to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q1 4:51
2ND & 1
OPP 36
0
25.0%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Frank DarbySimilar
Q1 4:51
3RD & 1
OPP 36
0
25.1%
Kalen Ballage run for no gain to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q1 4:51
4TH & 1
OPP 36
-4
25.4%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, false start (Zach Robertson) to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q1 4:51
4TH & 5
OPP 40
0
25.4%
Manny Wilkins punt for 36 yds, downed at the OrgSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 6SF
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:4625% → 24%
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
24.7%
Thomas Tyner run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 8Similar
Q1 1:18
2ND & 6
OWN 8
-8
24.0%
Darell Garretson sacked by JoJo Wicker for a loss of 8 yards for a SAFETY OREGON ST Penalty, intentional grounding (Darell Garretson) to the OrgSt 0Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 7TD
6 plays · 54 yds · 1:1578% → 83%
Q1 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
21.9%
Demario Richard run for 11 yds to the OrgSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+17
21.9%
Manny Wilkins run for 17 yds to the OrgSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
21.8%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Demario RichardSimilar
Q1 1:09
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+9
22.0%
Demario Richard run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 17Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+17
16.8%
Demario Richard run for 17 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -13 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
19.2%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Trevon BradfordSimilar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 23
-11
19.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 11 yards to the OrgSt 12Similar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 21
OWN 12
-2
19.0%
Darell Garretson sacked by Jay Jay Wilson for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 10Similar
Q2 14:49
4TH & 23
OWN 10
0
19.0%
Nick Porebski punt for 53 yds, downed at the ArzSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
15.9%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:09
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
15.9%
Eno Benjamin run for no gain to the ArzSt 37Similar
Q2 13:09
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+4
16.3%
Manny Wilkins run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 41Similar
Q2 13:09
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
16.3%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0018% → 17%
Q2 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
17.5%
Ryan Nall run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q2 11:37
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+2
17.5%
Ryan Nall run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 23Similar
Q2 11:37
3RD & 4
OWN 23
-4
17.4%
Darell Garretson run for a loss of 4 yards to the OrgSt 19 Darell Garretson fumbled, recovered by OrgSt Darell GarretsonSimilar
Q2 11:37
4TH & 8
OWN 19
0
17.3%
Alex Bland punt for 33 yds, fair catch by N'Keal Harry at the ArzSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 11TD
12 plays · 52 yds · 4:4687% → 89%
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
13.4%
Kalen Ballage run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+2
13.0%
Kalen Ballage run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
13.3%
Kalen Ballage run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+4
13.0%
Manny Wilkins run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
13.1%
Manny Wilkins run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+5
13.3%
OREGON ST Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the OrgSt 24Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+5
13.0%
Demario Richard run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-10
13.0%
Kalen Ballage run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 14 ARIZONA ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Manny Wilkins) to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 20
OPP 29
+19
13.2%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 19 yds to the OrgSt 10Similar
Q2 9:30
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+4
13.3%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 4 yds to the OrgSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
13.0%
Demario Richard run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 1Similar
Q2 4:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
10.9%
Demario Richard run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 12TD
10 plays · 79 yds · 3:387% → 16%
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-2
6.9%
Trevorris Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 19Similar
Q2 4:37
2ND & 12
OWN 19
+9
6.6%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 9 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q2 4:37
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+8
6.3%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 8 yds to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
7.0%
Darell Garretson run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 38Similar
Q2 4:37
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+19
6.8%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 19 yds to the ArzSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+36
7.4%
Trevon Bradford run for 36 yds to the ArzSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
9.2%
Ryan Nall run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 1Similar
Q2 0:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
16.0%
Ryan Nall run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:4289% → 90%
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
10.7%
Kalen Ballage run for 18 yds to the ArzSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
10.2%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Kalen BallageSimilar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+4
10.2%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Tommy Hudson for 4 yds to the ArzSt 47Similar
Q2 0:59
3RD & 6
OWN 47
-6
10.5%
Manny Wilkins sacked by Kee Whetzel for a loss of 6 yards to the ArzSt 41Similar
Q2 0:17
4TH & 12
OWN 41
0
10.5%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 13 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OrgSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 14INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
13.1%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Jordan VillaminSimilar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
13.0%
Darell Garretson pass intercepted Chase Lucas return for no gain to the ArzSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 15PUNT
11 plays · 33 yds · 0:0013% → 14%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+15
12.8%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Noah Togiai for 15 yds to the OrgSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
13.4%
Ryan Nall run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 41Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+2
13.8%
Garretson, D. pass incomplete to Hernandez, T., PENALTY ASU pass interference (Williams, Kobe) 2 yards to the OSU43, 1ST DOWN OSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
13.9%
Thomas Tyner run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 49Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 2
OPP 49
0
14.6%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Tuli Wily-Matagi for no gain to the ArzSt 49Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+3
14.3%
Ryan Nall run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
14.4%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Jordan VillaminSimilar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+1
14.3%
Thomas Tyner run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 45Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 9
OPP 45
0
14.1%
Darell Garretson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 9
OPP 45
0
13.7%
Alex Bland punt for 31 yds, fair catch by N'Keal Harry at the ArzSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 16FG
11 plays · 59 yds · 5:0093% → 98%
Q3 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+9
6.7%
Demario Richard run for 9 yds to the ArzSt 23Similar
Q3 10:58
2ND & 1
OWN 23
+2
6.6%
Demario Richard run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
6.6%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 7 yds to the ArzSt 32Similar
Q3 10:58
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+11
6.7%
Demario Richard run for 11 yds to the ArzSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
6.4%
Kalen Ballage run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 44Similar
Q3 10:58
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+3
6.4%
Kalen Ballage run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 47Similar
Q3 10:58
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+19
6.4%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Jalen Harvey for 19 yds to the OrgSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
6.2%
Manny Wilkins run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q3 10:58
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+1
6.1%
Kalen Ballage run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q3 10:58
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+2
6.2%
Kalen Ballage run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q3 5:58
4TH & 3
OPP 27
+45
2.1%
Brandon Ruiz 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 17FG
11 plays · 67 yds · 4:202% → 4%
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+37
2.1%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Noah Togiai for 37 yds to the ArzSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
2.4%
Darell Garretson run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q3 5:53
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+9
2.3%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 9 yds to the ArzSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
2.5%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Xavier Hawkins for 3 yds to the ArzSt 28Similar
Q3 5:53
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+6
2.5%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 6 yds to the ArzSt 22Similar
Q3 5:53
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+2
2.5%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 2 yds to the ArzSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
2.5%
Ryan Nall run for no gain to the ArzSt 20Similar
Q3 5:53
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+7
2.5%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 7 yds to the ArzSt 13Similar
Q3 5:53
3RD & 3
OPP 13
0
2.5%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Isaiah HodginsSimilar
Q3 1:33
4TH & 3
OPP 13
+31
4.3%
Jordan Choukair 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 18TD
8 plays · 78 yds · 2:5097% → 100%
Q3 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
2.6%
Manny Wilkins run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 26Similar
Q3 1:26
2ND & 6
OWN 26
0
2.6%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Kyle Williams, broken up by Isaiah DunnSimilar
Q3 1:26
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+42
2.7%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 42 yds to the OrgSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+21
2.4%
Kalen Ballage run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 23 for a 1ST down OREGON ST Penalty, personal foul (Jalen Moore) to the OrgSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
2.2%
Kalen Ballage run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 9Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+6
2.2%
Kalen Ballage run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 3Similar
Q4 13:36
3RD & 2
OPP 3
+3
0.5%
Demario Richard run for 3 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 19TD
12 plays · 77 yds · 4:311% → 2%
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
0.6%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Timmy Hernandez, broken up by Chase LucasSimilar
Q4 13:29
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+11
0.6%
Trevorris Johnson run for 11 yds to the OrgSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+18
0.6%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Noah Togiai for 18 yds to the ArzSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+17
0.7%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Noah Togiai for 17 yds to the ArzSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+14
0.8%
Garretson, D. pass incomplete to Hernandez, T. (Williams, Kobe), PENALTY ASU pass interference (Williams, Kobe) 14 yards to the ASU17, 1ST DOWN OSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
0.8%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 5 yds to the ArzSt 12Similar
Q4 13:29
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+5
0.7%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 5 yds to the ArzSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
0.9%
Darell Garretson run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 3Similar
Q4 13:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
0.8%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Jordan VillaminSimilar
Q4 13:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
0.8%
Trevorris Johnson run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 1Similar
Q4 8:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
2.4%
Trevorris Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 20TD
8 plays · 53 yds · 1:292% → 8%
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-10
2.0%
Garretson, D. pass incomplete to Bradford, T. (Adams, Chad), PENALTY OSU holding (Lavaka, Gus) 10 yards to the OSU37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:56
1ST & 20
OWN 37
+38
1.9%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 38 yds to the ArzSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
2.4%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Jordan VillaminSimilar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
2.3%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Xavier Hawkins, broken up by Tashon SmallwoodSimilar
Q4 8:56
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+15
2.1%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Xavier Hawkins for 15 yds to the ArzSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
2.4%
Ryan Nall run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 4Similar
Q4 7:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
8.0%
Darell Garretson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
4.9%
Demario Richard run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 24Similar
Q4 7:22
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+2
4.9%
Demario Richard run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 26Similar
Q4 7:22
3RD & 6
OWN 26
0
5.1%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Jalen HarveySimilar
Q4 7:22
4TH & 6
OWN 26
+53
4.9%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Timmy Hernandez at the OREGONST 31 OREGON ST Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the OrgSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 22INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
5.3%
Darell Garretson pass intercepted Renell Wren return for no gain to the OrgSt 18 Renell Wren fumbled, forced by Fred Lauina, recovered by OrgSt Gus LavakaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 23FUMBLE
11 plays · 67 yds · 0:005% → 7%
Q4 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
4.9%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 5 yds to the OrgSt 23Similar
Q4 5:17
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+7
5.0%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 7 yds to the OrgSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
5.0%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Ryan Nall for 3 yds to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q4 5:17
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+11
5.1%
Garretson, D. pass incomplete to Hawkins, X., PENALTY ASU pass interference (Rhodes, J.) 11 yards to the OSU44, 1ST DOWN OSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
5.4%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 8 yds to the ArzSt 48Similar
Q4 5:17
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+1
5.9%
Thomas Tyner run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 47Similar
Q4 5:17
3RD & 1
OPP 47
-4
5.8%
Darell Garretson run for a loss of 4 yards to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q4 5:17
4TH & 5
OWN 49
+16
5.2%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Thomas Tyner for 16 yds to the ArzSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
6.2%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Tuli Wily-Matagi for 15 yds to the ArzSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+10
6.4%
Garretson, D. pass incomplete to Wily-Matagi, T., PENALTY ASU pass interference (Rhodes, J.) 10 yards to the ASU10, 1ST DOWN OSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:17
1ST & 0
OPP 10
-5
7.4%
Darell Garretson run for a loss of 5 yards to the ArzSt 15 Darell Garretson fumbled, recovered by ArzSt JoJo WickerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 24END OF GAME
10 plays · 21 yds · 0:3297% → 98%
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
2.8%
Kalen Ballage run for no gain to the ArzSt 15Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+6
2.6%
Kalen Ballage run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 21Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+3
2.0%
Demario Richard run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 24Similar
Q4 1:54
4TH & 1
OWN 24
+15
1.8%
Sleep-Dalton,M. punt 35 yards to the OSU41, Hernandez, T. return to the OSU41, fumble by Hernandez, T. recovered by OSU Hernandez, T. at OSU44, PENALTY OSU roughing the kicker (Soesman, Adam) 15 yards to the ASU39, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
1.7%
TEAM run for no gain to the ArzSt 39Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-2
1.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 37Similar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 12
OWN 37
-1
1.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:59
Ryan Nall run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK)
+9.9
TD · Q4 7:27
Darell Garretson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK)
+5.6
TD · Q2 14:54
Demario Richard run for 17 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)
-5.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com