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ARIZ

Arizona 28 at Oregon 48

ORE
2017 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2017 · Autzen Stadium
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Win probability · ORE
modelORE aheadARIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playORE scoreARIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 15:00 · Trevor Wood punt for 36 yds, downed at the Oregn 6
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 111Home team on offense+4.3Score differential+1.4Pregame prior+4.3Garbage-time factor−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:59: Justin Herbert pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 39 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK) — ORE win probability +9.3 pts (now 62%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:32: Royce Freeman run for 28 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK) — ORE win probability +13.2 pts (now 72%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:56: Royce Freeman run for 11 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK) — ORE win probability +13.0 pts (now 88%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:47: Zach Green run for 2 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK) — ARIZ win probability +12.4 pts (now 32%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:54: Royce Freeman run for 1 yd for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK) — ORE win probability +10.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORE made the numbers' call on 4 of 5ARIZ made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00ORE 4th & 6 at ARIZ 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    59.5%−<0.1
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:20ARIZ 4th & 10 at ARIZ 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:10ARIZ 4th & 18 at ARIZ 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.8%−1.0
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:13ORE 4th & 21 at ORE 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%−1.3
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:31ARIZ 4th & 9 at ORE 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.2%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.5%
    average punt
  6. Q3 15:00ARIZ 4th & 4 at ORE 42, down 7
    Close callPunted · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    30.1%−2.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    31.4%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q4 14:54ORE 4th & 5 at ARIZ 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.2%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.5%
    70% to make
    Punt
    74.1%−8.4
    average punt
  8. Q4 14:54ARIZ 4th & 7 at ARIZ 28, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%−1.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.6%
    average punt
  9. Q4 13:54ARIZ 4th & 7 at ARIZ 33, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.1%−1.0
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.2%
    average punt
  10. Q4 8:09ORE 4th & 7 at ARIZ 7, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.1%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.3%
    91% to make
    Punt
    93.8%−2.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:09ARIZ 4th & 1 at ORE 24, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.3%−0.2
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    1.5%
    68% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−1.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:09ARIZ 4th & 23 at ORE 36, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%−0.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    1.6%
    42% to make
    Punt
    1.2%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:37ORE 4th & 5 at ARIZ 20, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.2%
    75% to make
    Punt
    98.4%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORE made the numbers' call on 6 of 6ARIZ made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 7:41ARIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:20ORE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:10ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:13ARIZ Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:08ARIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 6:59ORE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 1:32ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 6:56ORE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 3:47ARIZ Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 13:54ORE Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OREDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
58.7%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 10 yds to the Ariz 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-10
58.7%
Freeman, Royce rush for 3 yards to the ARIZ36 (Belknap, Justin), PENALTY ORE holding 10 yards to the ARIZ49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 20
OPP 49
+3
58.7%
Charles Nelson run for 3 yds to the Ariz 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 17
OPP 46
+10
58.7%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 10 yds to the Ariz 36Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+6
58.7%
Justin Herbert run for 6 yds to the Ariz 30Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 30
-5
58.7%
OREGON Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Ariz 35Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 35
0
58.7%
Adam Stack punt for 18 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ariz 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 2TD
11 plays · 83 yds · 4:5141% → 45%
Q1 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
58.8%
Khalil Tate run for 2 yds to the Ariz 19Similar
Q1 12:32
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+9
58.8%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Tony Ellison for 9 yds to the Ariz 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
58.7%
Khalil Tate pass complete to J.J. Taylor for 8 yds to the Ariz 36Similar
Q1 12:32
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+4
58.6%
Nick Wilson run for 4 yds to the Ariz 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
58.6%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Bryce Wolma for 3 yds to the Ariz 43Similar
Q1 12:32
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+13
58.5%
Khalil Tate run for 13 yds to the Oregn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
58.5%
Khalil Tate run for 2 yds to the Oregn 42Similar
Q1 12:32
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+9
58.5%
Khalil Tate run for 9 yds to the Oregn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
58.4%
Nick Wilson run for 3 yds to the Oregn 30Similar
Q1 12:32
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+12
58.4%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 12 yds to the Oregn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
55.0%
Nick Wilson run for 18 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 3TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:2156% → 60%
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
56.0%
Tony Brooks-James run for 14 yds to the Oregn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
56.3%
Tony Brooks-James run for 7 yds to the Oregn 46Similar
Q1 7:41
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+2
56.7%
Tony Brooks-James run for 2 yds to the Oregn 48Similar
Q1 7:41
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+7
56.6%
Royce Freeman run for 7 yds to the Ariz 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
56.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for no gain to the Ariz 45Similar
Q1 7:41
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+5
56.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 5 yds to the Ariz 40Similar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+40
59.7%
Justin Herbert run for 40 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
58.6%
Khalil Tate run for no gain to the Ariz 25Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
58.6%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Shun Brown, broken up by Arrion SpringsSimilar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
59.0%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Tony Ellison, broken up by Tyree RobinsonSimilar
Q1 5:20
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+15
59.3%
Josh Pollack punt for 36 yds , Dillon Mitchell returns for 15 yds to the Ariz 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 5TD
8 plays · 46 yds · 1:0460% → 63%
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
60.0%
Royce Freeman run for 7 yds to the Ariz 39Similar
Q1 4:14
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+2
60.0%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the Ariz 37Similar
Q1 4:14
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+6
59.8%
Royce Freeman run for 6 yds to the Ariz 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
60.2%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Charles NelsonSimilar
Q1 4:14
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+23
60.2%
Jaylon Redd run for 23 yds to the Ariz 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:14
1ST & 0
OPP 8
+4
60.7%
ARIZONA Penalty, personal foul (4 Yards) to the Ariz 4Similar
Q1 3:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
64.5%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 0
OWN 0
0
63.3%
PENALTY ORE personal foul off-setting, PENALTY ARIZ personal foul off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 6PUNT
11 plays · 4 yds · 0:0037% → 36%
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+15
63.1%
OREGON Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Ariz 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
62.8%
Khalil Tate run for a loss of 5 yards to the Ariz 28Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 15
OWN 28
0
63.2%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Tony EllisonSimilar
Q1 3:10
3RD & 15
OWN 28
-13
63.6%
Khalil Tate sacked by TEAM for a loss of 13 yards to the Ariz 15Similar
Q1 3:10
4TH & 28
OWN 15
+15
63.9%
OREGON Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Ariz 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
62.9%
Khalil Tate run for 2 yds to the Ariz 32Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 8
OWN 32
-15
62.8%
ARIZONA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the Ariz 17Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 23
OWN 17
+3
63.2%
Nick Wilson run for 3 yds to the Ariz 20Similar
Q1 3:10
3RD & 20
OWN 20
+2
63.7%
Khalil Tate run for 2 yds to the Ariz 22Similar
Q1 3:10
4TH & 18
OWN 22
+3
63.9%
Josh Pollack punt for 38 yds , Dillon Mitchell returns for 3 yds to the Oregn 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 7INT
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
65.2%
Tony Brooks-James run for 3 yds to the Oregn 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+79
65.3%
Justin Herbert pass intercepted Dane Cruikshank return for 64 yds to the OREGON -10 ARIZONA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Oregn 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 8TD
3 plays · 19 yds · 0:5839% → 44%
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
61.5%
J.J. Taylor run for 4 yds to the Oregn 15Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 6
OPP 15
0
61.5%
Khalil Tate pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:13
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+15
56.2%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Tony Ellison for 15 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 0:0060% → 58%
Q2 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
59.6%
Royce Freeman run for no gain to the Oregn 36Similar
Q2 13:13
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-2
59.3%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 34Similar
Q2 13:13
3RD & 12
OWN 34
-9
58.2%
Justin Herbert sacked by Kylan Wilborn for a loss of 9 yards to the Oregn 25Similar
Q2 13:13
4TH & 21
OWN 25
0
57.7%
Adam Stack punt for 34 yds, downed at the Ariz 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 10TD
6 plays · 59 yds · 2:0644% → 53%
Q2 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
56.4%
Nick Wilson run for no gain to the Ariz 41Similar
Q2 11:14
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+3
56.8%
Shun Brown run for 3 yds to the Ariz 44Similar
Q2 11:14
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+16
56.8%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 16 yds to the Oregn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
55.8%
OREGON Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Oregn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
55.1%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Tyrell Johnson for 5 yds to the Oregn 20Similar
Q2 9:08
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+20
47.2%
Nick Wilson run for 20 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 11TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:0950% → 62%
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
49.8%
Royce Freeman run for 11 yds to the Oregn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
50.4%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Oregn 39Similar
Q2 9:08
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
51.2%
Royce Freeman run for no gain to the Oregn 39Similar
Q2 9:08
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+10
49.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Charles Nelson for 10 yds to the Oregn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
51.7%
Royce Freeman run for 8 yds to the Ariz 43Similar
Q2 9:08
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+4
52.3%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Charles Nelson for 4 yds to the Ariz 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
61.6%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 39 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 12PUNT
11 plays · 38 yds · 3:2844% → 44%
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+14
56.3%
J.J. Taylor run for 14 yds to the Ariz 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
55.9%
J.J. Taylor run for 2 yds to the Ariz 31Similar
Q2 6:59
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+9
55.7%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Tony Ellison for 9 yds to the Ariz 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
54.7%
J.J. Taylor run for 6 yds to the Ariz 46Similar
Q2 6:59
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+6
54.1%
Khalil Tate run for 6 yds to the Oregn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
53.7%
J.J. Taylor run for 4 yds to the Oregn 44Similar
Q2 6:59
2ND & 6
OPP 44
-3
53.7%
Nick Wilson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 47Similar
Q2 3:31
3RD & 9
OPP 47
0
54.6%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Tony Ellison, broken up by Arrion SpringsSimilar
Q2 3:31
4TH & 9
OPP 47
0
56.5%
Josh Pollack punt for 35 yds, downed at the Oregn 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 13TD
7 plays · 88 yds · 1:4360% → 72%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
60.0%
Royce Freeman run for 5 yds to the Oregn 17Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+46
60.1%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Charles Nelson for 46 yds to the Ariz 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
63.1%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Ariz 34Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 7
OPP 34
-9
63.9%
Dillon Mitchell run for a loss of 9 yards to the Ariz 43Similar
Q2 1:49
3RD & 16
OPP 43
+15
59.1%
Herbert, Justin pass incomplete to Johnson III, Johnny, PENALTY ARIZ pass interference 15 yards to the ARIZ28, 1ST DOWN ORE, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
72.3%
Royce Freeman run for 28 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 14INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.6%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Tony Ellison, broken up by Ugochukwu AmadiSimilar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
69.8%
Khalil Tate pass intercepted Ugochukwu Amadi return for no gain to the Ariz 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 15END OF HALF
4 plays · -14 yds · 0:0072% → 71%
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-10
72.4%
Herbert, Justin pass complete to Nelson, Charles for 7 yards to the ARIZ25 (Schooler, Colin), PENALTY ORE holding 10 yards to the ARIZ42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 20
OPP 42
-10
71.0%
Herbert, Justin pass incomplete to Mitchell, D., PENALTY ORE holding 10 yards to the ORE48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 30
OWN 48
+2
70.7%
Tony Brooks-James run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 28
50
+4
70.5%
Tony Brooks-James run for 4 yds to the Ariz 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 16PUNT
11 plays · 33 yds · 0:0031% → 32%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
69.2%
Nick Wilson run for 5 yds to the Ariz 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
68.5%
Nick Wilson run for 3 yds to the Ariz 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
68.9%
Tony Ellison run for 4 yds to the Ariz 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
68.3%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Tony Ellison for 7 yds to the Ariz 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+1
66.9%
Nick Wilson run for 1 yd to the Ariz 45Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+7
67.2%
Khalil Tate run for 7 yds to the Oregn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
66.5%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Tony Ellison for 6 yds to the Oregn 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 42
0
66.0%
Khalil Tate run for no gain to the Oregn 42Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 42
0
66.9%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Shun BrownSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 42
0
68.0%
Trevor Wood punt for 36 yds, downed at the Oregn 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 17TD
11 plays · 94 yds · 4:0071% → 88%
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
71.3%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Oregn 9Similar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 7
OWN 9
+5
71.1%
Royce Freeman run for 5 yds to the Oregn 14Similar
Q3 10:56
3RD & 2
OWN 14
+26
70.5%
Royce Freeman run for 26 yds to the Oregn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
73.7%
Royce Freeman run for 5 yds to the Oregn 45Similar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+1
74.0%
Tony Brooks-James run for 1 yd to the Oregn 46Similar
Q3 10:56
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+14
72.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Charles Nelson for 14 yds to the Ariz 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
74.4%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Tony Brooks-JamesSimilar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+35
74.2%
Tony Brooks-James run for 35 yds to the Ariz 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 0
OPP 5
-7
75.9%
Brooks-James rush for 3 yards to the ARIZ2, PENALTY ORE holding 7 yards to the ARIZ12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
+1
74.8%
Tony Brooks-James run for 1 yd to the Ariz 11Similar
Q3 6:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
87.8%
Royce Freeman run for 11 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 18TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:0916% → 32%
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
84.4%
Tate, Khalil pass incomplete to Ellison, Tony, PENALTY ARIZ pass interference 10 yards to the ARIZ35, 1ST DOWN ARIZ, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
83.6%
J.J. Taylor run for 10 yds to the Ariz 49 J.J. Taylor fumbled, forced by Jimmie Swain, recovered by Ariz Nathan Eldridge for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
82.5%
Nick Wilson run for 4 yds to the Oregn 47Similar
Q3 6:56
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+5
82.4%
Nick Wilson run for 5 yds to the Oregn 42Similar
Q3 6:56
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+13
82.0%
Nick Wilson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 44 for a 1ST down OREGON Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Oregn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
80.9%
Nick Wilson run for 1 yd to the Oregn 28Similar
Q3 6:56
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+19
81.4%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shawn Poindexter for 19 yds to the Oregn 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
80.9%
Zach Green run for 2 yds to the Oregn 7Similar
Q3 6:56
2ND & 0
OPP 7
+5
79.9%
Tate, Khalil pass incomplete to Poindexter, Shawn, PENALTY ORE pass interference 5 yards to the ORE2, 1ST DOWN ARIZ, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
67.6%
Zach Green run for 2 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 19FG
11 plays · 52 yds · 3:5377% → 84%
Q3 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
77.0%
Tony Brooks-James run for 4 yds to the Oregn 29Similar
Q3 3:47
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+12
77.2%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Cam McCormick for 12 yds to the Oregn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
78.9%
Tony Brooks-James run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 40Similar
Q3 3:47
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+2
78.0%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 2 yds to the Oregn 42Similar
Q3 3:47
3RD & 9
OWN 42
-5
77.1%
OREGON Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 37Similar
Q3 3:47
3RD & 14
OWN 37
+35
76.2%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Cam McCormick for 35 yds to the Ariz 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
79.9%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Dillon MitchellSimilar
Q3 3:47
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+6
79.8%
Tony Brooks-James run for 6 yds to the Ariz 22Similar
Q3 3:47
3RD & 4
OPP 22
-1
78.8%
Tony Brooks-James run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 23Similar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 5
OPP 23
+40
83.8%
Aidan Schneider 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0016% → 15%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
83.8%
Khalil Tate pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
84.0%
J.J. Taylor run for 3 yds to the Ariz 28Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
84.6%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Tony EllisonSimilar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
85.2%
Josh Pollack punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Oregn 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 21TD
2 plays · 51 yds · 0:1585% → 95%
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+50
85.1%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 50 yds to the Ariz 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.3%
Royce Freeman run for 1 yd for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q4 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-1
94.4%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 17Similar
Q4 13:54
2ND & 11
OWN 17
+8
94.5%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Trevor Wood for 8 yds to the Ariz 25Similar
Q4 13:54
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+5
94.2%
Nick Wilson run for 5 yds to the Ariz 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
94.1%
Nick Wilson run for 3 yds to the Ariz 33Similar
Q4 13:54
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
94.0%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Shawn Poindexter, broken up by Deommodore LenoirSimilar
Q4 13:54
3RD & 7
OWN 33
0
94.2%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Cedric PetersonSimilar
Q4 13:54
4TH & 7
OWN 33
0
94.5%
Jake Glatting punt for 19 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Oregn 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 23FG
13 plays · 45 yds · 3:3096% → 99%
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
96.0%
Justin Herbert run for 3 yds to the Ariz 49Similar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+6
96.0%
Tony Brooks-James run for 6 yds to the Ariz 43Similar
Q4 11:39
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+2
95.9%
Tony Brooks-James run for 2 yds to the Ariz 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
96.0%
Tony Brooks-James run for 4 yds to the Ariz 37Similar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+22
96.0%
Tony Brooks-James run for 22 yds to the Ariz 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
96.0%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Dillon MitchellSimilar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+14
96.0%
Tony Brooks-James run for 14 yds to the Ariz 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
96.1%
Tony Brooks-James run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 2Similar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 0
OPP 2
-5
96.3%
OREGON Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Ariz 7Similar
Q4 8:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
97.0%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Jacob Breeland, broken up by Scottie Young Jr.Similar
Q4 8:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
96.9%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Dillon Mitchell, broken up by Jace WhittakerSimilar
Q4 8:09
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
98.7%
Aidan Schneider 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 24DOWNS
10 plays · 7 yds · 0:002% → 1%
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
98.4%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Shawn Poindexter, broken up by Deommodore LenoirSimilar
Q4 8:09
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+3
98.5%
J.J. Taylor run for 3 yds to the Oregn 30Similar
Q4 8:09
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+6
98.6%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Tony Ellison for 6 yds to the Oregn 24Similar
Q4 8:09
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+1
98.5%
J.J. Taylor run for 1 yd to the Oregn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-10
98.4%
Taylor, JJ rush for 1 yard to the ORE22 (Swain, Jimmie), PENALTY ARIZ holding 10 yards to the ORE33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:09
1ST & 20
OPP 33
0
98.5%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Tony Ellison, broken up by Ugochukwu AmadiSimilar
Q4 8:09
2ND & 20
OPP 33
0
98.5%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Shawn PoindexterSimilar
Q4 8:09
3RD & 20
OPP 33
-3
98.6%
Khalil Tate sacked by Jalen Jelks for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 36Similar
Q4 8:09
4TH & 23
OPP 36
+10
98.8%
Khalil Tate run for 10 yds to the Oregn 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 25MISSED FG
5 plays · 54 yds · 2:4699% → 99%
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+49
99.2%
Darrian Felix run for 34 yds to the OREGON 40 for a 1ST down ARIZONA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Ariz 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
99.2%
Darrian Felix run for 2 yds to the Ariz 23Similar
Q4 5:23
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+3
99.2%
Darrian Felix run for 3 yds to the Ariz 20Similar
Q4 5:23
3RD & 5
OPP 20
0
99.2%
Darrian Felix run for no gain to the Ariz 20Similar
Q4 2:37
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+37
99.3%
Aidan Schneider 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 26INT
8 plays · 44 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
99.4%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shawn Poindexter for 9 yds to the Ariz 29Similar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+7
99.3%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Tyrell Johnson for 7 yds to the Ariz 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
99.3%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 4 yds to the Ariz 40Similar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+3
99.3%
Nick Wilson run for 3 yds to the Ariz 43Similar
Q4 2:37
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+4
99.3%
J.J. Taylor run for 4 yds to the Ariz 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
99.3%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Tyrell JohnsonSimilar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+17
99.3%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 17 yds to the Oregn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+19
99.3%
Khalil Tate pass intercepted Ty Griffin return for 19 yds to the Oregn 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-2
99.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:32
Royce Freeman run for 28 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)
+13.2
TD · Q3 6:56
Royce Freeman run for 11 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)
+13
TD · Q3 3:47
Zach Green run for 2 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK)
-12.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com