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USC

USC 38 at Colorado 24

COLO
2017 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2017 · Folsom Field
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Win probability · COLO
modelCOLO aheadUSC aheadconfidence bandkey playCOLO scoreUSC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:33 · Steven Montez pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 10 yds to the USC 12 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 192Pregame prior−3.8Home team on offense−35.5Score differential−16.3Garbage-time factor−16.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−11.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−5.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:51: Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 18 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK) — USC win probability +4.8 pts (now 85%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:19: Steven Montez pass intercepted for a TD Ajene Harris return for 34 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath PAT MISSED) — USC win probability +5.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:34: Steven Montez pass complete to Juwann Winfree for 79 yds for a TD, (James Stefanou KICK) — COLO win probability +4.7 pts (now 7%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:30: Phillip Lindsay run for 1 yd for a TD, (James Stefanou KICK) — COLO win probability +9.3 pts (now 16%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:56: Ronald Jones II run for 22 yds for a TD, (Sam Darnold pass to Erik Krommenhoek for Two-Point Conversion) — USC win probability +6.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
COLO made the numbers' call on 5 of 11USC made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 11:21USC 4th & 4 at COLO 22, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 79.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.0%−<0.1
    72% to make
    Punt
    78.6%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:21COLO 4th & 10 at COLO 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.9%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:42USC 4th & 1 at COLO 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    78.0%−0.3
    25% to make
    Punt
    78.1%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:02COLO 4th & 7 at COLO 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.2%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:56USC 4th & 4 at USC 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.0%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00COLO 4th & 9 at USC 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.4%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    27.3%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    27.2%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:59COLO 4th & 6 at COLO 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.5%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:08USC 4th & 1 at USC 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    76.3%−1.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:40COLO 4th & 3 at USC 30, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.9%−0.3
    56% to make
    Punt
    16.1%−1.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:03USC 4th & 6 at USC 34, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.3%−0.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:46COLO 4th & 3 at USC 22, down 20
    Close callKicked a field goal · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.6%−0.2
    72% to make
    Punt
    8.0%−2.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:43USC 4th & 1 at USC 34, up 20
    Close callPunted · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.6%−0.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:13USC 4th & 8 at COLO 8, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.6%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.3%
    90% to make
    Punt
    81.3%−7.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:42COLO 4th & 16 at USC 22, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%−1.9
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.1%
    72% to make
    Punt
    5.0%−5.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:34USC 4th & 9 at COLO 47, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.1%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:12COLO 4th & 10 at COLO 15, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.5%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:39USC 4th & 6 at COLO 22, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.7%
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    94.7%−<0.1
    72% to make
    Punt
    91.4%−3.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:33COLO 4th & 9 at COLO 45, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.0%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:33COLO 4th & 6 at USC 22, down 14
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.3 ptsWent for it · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.7%−1.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    7.0%
    72% to make
    Punt
    3.5%−3.5
    average punt
  20. Q4 5:33COLO 4th & 1 at USC 3, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.3%−0.6
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    7.0%
    93% to make
    Punt
    2.6%−4.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
COLO made the numbers' call on 3 of 3USC made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q2 11:59USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:51USC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:19USC Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    89.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:14USC Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:34COLO Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:30COLO Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:56USC Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    96.8%−0.4
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:35COLO Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1MISSED FG
11 plays · 53 yds · 3:3984% → 83%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
15.7%
USC Penalty, false start (Andrew Vorhees) to the USC 20Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+5
15.7%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 5 yds to the USC 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+32
15.7%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 32 yds to the Colo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
15.7%
Velus Jones Jr. run for 3 yds to the Colo 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+6
15.7%
Ronald Jones II run for 6 yds to the Colo 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+6
15.7%
Ronald Jones II run for 6 yds to the Colo 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
15.7%
Ronald Jones II run for 6 yds to the Colo 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 22
0
15.7%
Ronald Jones II run for no gain to the Colo 22Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 22
0
15.7%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Michael Pittman Jr., broken up by Isaiah OliverSimilar
Q1 11:21
4TH & 4
OPP 22
+40
17.3%
Chase McGrath 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0018% → 17%
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
17.5%
Steven Montez pass complete to Shay Fields for 4 yds to the Colo 26Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+16
17.5%
Phillip Lindsay run for 16 yds to the Colo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
17.6%
Phillip Lindsay run for no gain to the Colo 42Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
17.5%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Bryce Bobo, broken up by Ajene HarrisSimilar
Q1 11:21
3RD & 10
OWN 42
0
17.5%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Bryce BoboSimilar
Q1 11:21
4TH & 10
OWN 42
0
17.3%
Alex Kinney punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Tyler Vaughns at the USC 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3DOWNS
11 plays · 48 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+17
18.3%
Ronald Jones II run for 17 yds to the USC 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
18.2%
Ronald Jones II run for 3 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q1 9:42
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+20
18.2%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 20 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
18.2%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 7 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q1 9:42
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+7
18.0%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 7 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
17.9%
Ronald Jones II run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 44Similar
Q1 9:42
2ND & 12
OWN 44
+6
18.1%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Ronald Jones II for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:42
3RD & 6
50
-5
18.0%
Darnold, Sam pass complete to Pittman, Michae for 4 yards to the COLO46 (Wigley, Dante), PENALTY USC illegal formation (Burnett, Deonta) 5 yards to the USC45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:42
3RD & 11
OWN 45
+10
18.2%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 10 yds to the Colo 45Similar
Q1 9:42
4TH & 1
OPP 45
0
18.1%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for no gain to the Colo 45Similar
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-15
17.9%
USC Penalty, personal foul (Chuma Edoga) to the USC 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
21.3%
Steven Montez run for 2 yds to the Colo 47Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+1
21.3%
Phillip Lindsay run for 1 yd to the Colo 48Similar
Q1 5:02
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
20.6%
Alex Kinney punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USC 19Similar
Q1 5:02
3RD & 7
OWN 48
0
21.0%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Devin RossSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q1 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
21.2%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 11 yds to the USC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
21.1%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Tyler VaughnsSimilar
Q1 3:56
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+6
21.2%
Ronald Jones II run for 6 yds to the USC 36Similar
Q1 3:56
3RD & 4
OWN 36
0
21.0%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Deontay BurnettSimilar
Q1 3:56
4TH & 4
OWN 36
0
21.4%
Reid Budrovich punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Colo 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 6DOWNS
11 plays · 41 yds · 2:2922% → 24%
Q1 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
22.3%
Steven Montez pass complete to Devin Ross for 6 yds to the Colo 25Similar
Q1 2:29
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+21
22.4%
Steven Montez pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 21 yds to the Colo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
23.1%
Steven Montez run for 7 yds to the USC 47Similar
Q1 2:29
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+2
23.3%
Phillip Lindsay run for 2 yds to the USC 45Similar
Q1 2:29
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+7
23.1%
Steven Montez pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for 7 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-15
25.0%
Montez, Steven pass complete to Bounds, Chris for 38 yards to the USC0, clock 00:07, PENALTY COLO pass interference (Fields, Shay) 15 yards to the COLO47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:07
1ST & 25
OWN 47
+15
24.2%
USC Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jack Jones) to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
25.0%
Phillip Lindsay run for 1 yd to the USC 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 37
0
25.1%
Steven Montez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 37
0
24.7%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Devin Ross, broken up by Ajene HarrisSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 9
OPP 37
-3
23.7%
Steven Montez sacked by Rasheem Green for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7TD
9 plays · 60 yds · 2:4378% → 81%
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
22.5%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 4 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q2 14:42
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+30
22.3%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 30 yds to the Colo 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
21.7%
Ronald Jones II run for 1 yd to the Colo 25Similar
Q2 13:09
2ND & 9
OPP 25
0
22.8%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Steven Mitchell Jr., broken up by Dante WigleySimilar
Q2 13:09
3RD & 9
OPP 25
+10
23.3%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 10 yds to the Colo 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
22.8%
Vavae Malepeai run for 5 yds to the Colo 10Similar
Q2 13:09
2ND & 5
OPP 10
0
22.8%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Steven Mitchell Jr.Similar
Q2 11:59
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+10
19.4%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 10 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0021% → 20%
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
20.7%
Phillip Lindsay run for 4 yds to the Colo 29Similar
Q2 11:59
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
20.9%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Shay Fields, broken up by Jack JonesSimilar
Q2 11:59
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
20.6%
Steven Montez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:59
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+9
20.1%
Alex Kinney punt for 49 yds , Tyler Vaughns returns for 9 yds to the USC 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9TD
8 plays · 69 yds · 3:1780% → 85%
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
20.5%
Vavae Malepeai run for 3 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q2 11:08
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+2
20.4%
Vavae Malepeai run for 2 yds to the USC 36Similar
Q2 11:08
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+4
20.4%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 4 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q2 11:08
4TH & 1
OWN 40
+4
20.4%
Ronald Jones II run for 4 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+29
19.8%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 29 yds to the Colo 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+24
19.4%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 24 yds to the Colo 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-15
19.4%
USC Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Tyler Vaughns) to the Colo 18Similar
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
14.6%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 18 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 10MISSED FG
15 plays · 50 yds · 6:0615% → 16%
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
15.4%
Steven Montez run for 2 yds to the Colo 22Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+7
15.3%
Steven Montez pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 7 yds to the Colo 29Similar
Q2 7:46
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+3
15.7%
K.D. Nixon run for 3 yds to the Colo 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+16
15.6%
Steven Montez pass complete to Juwann Winfree for 16 yds to the Colo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-15
16.5%
COLORADO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Juwann Winfree) to the Colo 33Similar
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
15.6%
Steven Montez run for 1 yd to the Colo 34Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+7
15.5%
Steven Montez pass complete to Devin Ross for 7 yds to the Colo 41Similar
Q2 7:46
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+7
16.2%
Steven Montez pass complete to Devin Ross for 7 yds to the Colo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
16.5%
Phillip Lindsay run for 3 yds to the USC 49Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+12
16.5%
Steven Montez pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 12 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
16.5%
Phillip Lindsay run for 4 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+4
16.9%
Phillip Lindsay run for 4 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q2 7:46
3RD & 2
OPP 29
-1
16.5%
Steven Montez run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 30Similar
Q2 1:40
4TH & 3
OPP 30
+47
15.9%
James Stefanou 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:3786% → 85%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
13.9%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 4 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 6
OWN 34
0
13.9%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Deontay BurnettSimilar
Q2 1:40
3RD & 6
OWN 34
0
14.1%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:03
4TH & 6
OWN 34
0
14.6%
Reid Budrovich punt for 57 yds, downed at the Colo 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 12INT TD
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:3215% → 10%
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
14.7%
Steven Montez pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 5 yds to the Colo 15Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+9
14.9%
Steven Montez pass complete to Jay MacIntyre for 9 yds to the Colo 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
14.9%
Steven Montez pass complete to Devin Ross for 6 yds to the Colo 30Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 4
OWN 30
0
15.3%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Juwann WinfreeSimilar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+34
9.9%
Steven Montez pass intercepted for a TD Ajene Harris return for 34 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
9.9%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 14MISSED FG
10 plays · 53 yds · 3:1410% → 9%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
10.0%
Phillip Lindsay run for 6 yds to the Colo 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+13
10.4%
Phillip Lindsay run for 13 yds to the Colo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
10.8%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Bryce Bobo, broken up by Uchenna NwosuSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+27
10.7%
Steven Montez pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 27 yds to the USC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
11.4%
Phillip Lindsay run for 5 yds to the USC 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 24
-2
11.4%
Phillip Lindsay run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 26Similar
Q3 12:30
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+4
9.4%
Steven Montez pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for 4 yds to the USC 22Similar
Q3 11:46
4TH & 3
OPP 22
+39
9.3%
James Stefanou 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15TD
6 plays · 78 yds · 2:3293% → 98%
Q3 11:46
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+13
6.8%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 13 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
6.1%
Ronald Jones II run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 34Similar
Q3 11:46
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+37
6.3%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 37 yds to the Colo 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
5.5%
Ronald Jones II run for 5 yds to the Colo 24Similar
Q3 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
6.8%
Ronald Jones II run for no gain to the USC 22Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+24
2.4%
Sam Darnold run for 24 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 16TD
3 plays · 82 yds · 0:352% → 7%
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
2.4%
Phillip Lindsay run for 3 yds to the Colo 21Similar
Q3 8:34
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+79
7.1%
Steven Montez pass complete to Juwann Winfree for 79 yds for a TD, (James Stefanou KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 0:5195% → 95%
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
5.5%
Ronald Jones II run for 9 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q3 8:34
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-4
4.8%
USC Penalty, false start (-4 Yards) to the USC 30Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-10
4.5%
Jones, Ronald rush for 8 yards to the USC38 (Fisher, Nick), PENALTY USC holding (Imatorbhebhe, D) 10 yards to the USC20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
5.1%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Velus Jones Jr.Similar
Q3 7:43
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+14
5.3%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 14 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q3 7:43
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+12
4.7%
Reid Budrovich punt blocked by Nate Landman blocked by Nate Landman Kyle Trego return for 12 yds to the USC 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 18TD
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:537% → 16%
Q3 6:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
7.4%
Phillip Lindsay run for no gain to the USC 1Similar
Q3 6:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
7.1%
Steven Montez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
16.4%
Phillip Lindsay run for 1 yd for a TD, (James Stefanou KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 19FG
9 plays · 57 yds · 3:0988% → 92%
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+25
11.8%
Sam Darnold run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down COLORADO Penalty, Defensive holding (Nate Landman) to the Colo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
10.9%
Ronald Jones II run for 5 yds to the Colo 35Similar
Q3 5:22
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+25
10.6%
Ronald Jones II run for 25 yds to the Colo 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
10.6%
Ronald Jones II run for 3 yds to the Colo 7Similar
Q3 5:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
10.6%
Jalen Greene run for 4 yds to the Colo 3Similar
Q3 5:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
10.9%
USC Penalty, false start (Daniel Imatorbhebhe) to the Colo 8Similar
Q3 5:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
10.8%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Michael Pittman Jr., broken up by Dante WigleySimilar
Q3 2:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
7.6%
Chase McGrath 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 20FG
13 plays · 48 yds · 4:2210% → 12%
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
10.4%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 12 yds to the Colo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+19
11.3%
Steven Montez run for 19 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
11.8%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Bryce BoboSimilar
Q3 2:04
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+11
11.6%
Steven Montez pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 11 yds to the USC 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
12.5%
Steven Montez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:04
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+6
12.2%
Phillip Lindsay run for 6 yds to the USC 22Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+6
11.7%
Steven Montez run for 6 yds to the USC 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-2
12.0%
Phillip Lindsay run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 18Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 18
-5
11.7%
COLORADO Penalty, delay of game (Steven Montez) to the USC 23Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 17
OPP 23
+1
11.6%
Steven Montez pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 1 yd to the USC 22Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 16
OPP 22
0
10.9%
Steven Montez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:42
4TH & 16
OPP 22
+39
12.1%
James Stefanou 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 21TD
9 plays · 72 yds · 3:4092% → 99%
Q4 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
8.1%
Ronald Jones II run for 9 yds to the USC 37Similar
Q4 12:36
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+4
7.8%
Ronald Jones II run for 4 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
7.6%
Ronald Jones II run for 4 yds to the USC 45Similar
Q4 12:36
2ND & 6
OWN 45
-8
7.5%
Sam Darnold sacked by TEAM for a loss of 8 yards to the USC 37 Sam Darnold fumbled, recovered by USC Sam Darnold , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 12:36
3RD & 14
OWN 37
+15
8.3%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 15 yds to the Colo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+26
7.4%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 26 yds to the Colo 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
6.9%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+22
0.9%
Ronald Jones II run for 22 yds for a TD, (Sam Darnold pass to Erik Krommenhoek for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 22TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:212% → 6%
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
1.8%
Steven Montez run for 8 yds to the Colo 33Similar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+2
1.9%
Phillip Lindsay run for 2 yds to the Colo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
1.8%
Steven Montez pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 8 yds to the Colo 43Similar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+57
5.9%
Steven Montez pass complete to Juwann Winfree for 57 yds for a TD, (James Stefanou KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
3.7%
Ronald Jones II run for 3 yds to the Colo 45Similar
Q4 7:34
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+3
3.8%
Ronald Jones II run for 3 yds to the Colo 42Similar
Q4 7:34
3RD & 4
OPP 42
0
3.8%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Tyler Vaughns, broken up by Dante WigleySimilar
Q4 7:34
4TH & 4
OPP 42
-5
4.1%
USC Penalty, delay of game (Reid Budrovich) to the Colo 47Similar
Q4 7:34
4TH & 9
OPP 47
0
4.2%
Reid Budrovich punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Blackmon at the Colo 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 24INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
4.3%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Devin RossSimilar
Q4 6:12
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
4.3%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Phillip LindsaySimilar
Q4 6:12
3RD & 10
OWN 15
0
4.2%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Jay MacIntyre, broken up by Uchenna NwosuSimilar
Q4 6:12
4TH & 10
OWN 15
+1
4.2%
Steven Montez pass intercepted Ajene Harris return for 1 yd to the Colo 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 25DOWNS
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:1697% → 97%
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
3.1%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Daniel ImatorbhebheSimilar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+5
3.2%
Ronald Jones II run for 5 yds to the Colo 21Similar
Q4 5:43
3RD & 5
OPP 21
-1
2.9%
Ronald Jones II run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 22Similar
Q4 5:39
4TH & 6
OPP 22
0
3.3%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Steven Mitchell Jr., broken up by Trey UdoffiaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 26DOWNS
15 plays · 70 yds · 0:002% → 3%
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
2.2%
Steven Montez run for 11 yds to the Colo 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
2.3%
Steven Montez pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 11 yds to the Colo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
2.5%
Phillip Lindsay run for 1 yd to the Colo 45Similar
Q4 5:33
2ND & 9
OWN 45
0
2.4%
Steven Montez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:33
3RD & 9
OWN 45
0
2.3%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Bryce BoboSimilar
Q4 5:33
4TH & 9
OWN 45
+14
2.3%
Steven Montez pass complete to Devin Ross for 14 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
2.6%
Steven Montez pass complete to Jay MacIntyre for 15 yds to the USC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
3.0%
Steven Montez pass complete to Juwann Winfree for 7 yds to the USC 19Similar
Q4 5:33
2ND & 3
OPP 19
-7
3.0%
Steven Montez sacked by Christian Rector for a loss of 7 yards to the USC 26Similar
Q4 5:33
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+4
2.7%
Steven Montez pass complete to Juwann Winfree for 4 yds to the USC 22Similar
Q4 5:33
4TH & 6
OPP 22
+10
2.7%
Steven Montez pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 10 yds to the USC 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
3.0%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Bryce BoboSimilar
Q4 5:33
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
3.0%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Devin Ross, broken up by John Houston Jr.Similar
Q4 5:33
3RD & 10
OPP 12
+9
2.8%
Steven Montez pass complete to Jay MacIntyre for 9 yds to the USC 3Similar
Q4 5:33
4TH & 1
OPP 3
-5
2.6%
Steven Montez run for a loss of 5 yards to the USC 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 27END OF GAME
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-1
1.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 8Similar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 11
OWN 8
-2
1.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 6Similar
Q4 1:24
3RD & 13
OWN 6
-1
1.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:30
Phillip Lindsay run for 1 yd for a TD, (James Stefanou KICK)
+9.3
TD · Q4 8:56
Ronald Jones II run for 22 yds for a TD, (Sam Darnold pass to Erik Krommenhoek for Two-Point Conversion)
-6
TD · Q2 0:19
Steven Montez pass intercepted for a TD Ajene Harris return for 34 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath PAT MISSED)
-5.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com